• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.1-22
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• 2008

This study is to evaluate, to the extent to, which advanced currency futures and emerging currency futures markets can predict accurately the future spot rate. To this end, Johansen's the maximum-likelihood cointegration method(1988, 1991) is adopted to test the unbiasedness and efficiency hypothesis. Also, this study is to estimate and compare a quantitative measure of relative efficiency as a ratio of the forecast error variance from the best-fitting quasi-error correction model to the forecast error variance of the futures price as predictor of the spot price in advanced currency futures with in emerging currency futures market. Advanced currency futures is British pound and Japan yen. Emerging currency futures includes Korea won, Mexico peso, and Brazil real. The empirical results are summarized as follows : First, the unbiasedness hypothesis is not rejected for Korea won and Japan yen futures exchange rates. This indicates that the emerging currency Korea won and the advanced currency Japan yen futures exchange rates are likely to predict accurately realized spot exchange rate at a maturity date without the trader having to pay a risk premium for the privilege of trading the contract. Second, in emerging currency futures markets, the unbiasedness hypothesis is not rejected for Korea won futures market apart from Mexico peso and Brazil real futures markets. This indicates that in emerging currency futures markets, Korea won futures market is more efficient than Mexico peso and Brazil real futures markets and is likely to predict accurately realized spot exchange rate at a maturity date without risk premium. Third, this findings show that the results of unbiasedness hypothesis tests can provide conflicting finding. according to currency futures class and forecasts horizon period, Fourth, from the best-fitting quasi-error correction model with forecast horizons of 14 days, the findings suggest the Japan yen futures market is 27.06% efficient, the British pound futures market is 26.87% efficient, the Korea won futures market is 20.77% efficient, the Mexico peso futures market is 11.55%, and the Brazil real futures market is 4.45% efficient in the usual order. This indicates that the Korea won-dollar futures market is more efficient than Mexico peso, and Brazil real futures market. It is therefore possible to concludes that the Korea won-dollar currency futures market has relatively high efficiency comparing with Mexico peso and Brazil real futures markets of emerging currency futures markets.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.1-30
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• 2010

This paper tested the lead-lag relationship as well as the symmetric and asymmetric volatility spillover effects between international currency futures markets and cash markets. We use five kinds of currency spot and futures markets such as British pound, Australian and Canadian dollar, Brasilian Real and won/dollar spot and futures markets. daily closing prices covering from September 15, 2003 to July 30, 2009. For this purpose we employed dynamic time series models such as the Granger causality based on VAR and time-varying MA(1)-GJR-GARCH(1, 1)-M. The main empirical results are as follows; First, according to Granger causality test, we find that the bilateral lead-lag relationship between the five countries' currency spot and futures market. The price discover effect from currency futures markets to spot market is relatively stronger than that from currency spot to futures markets. Second, based on the time varying GARCH model, we find that there is a bilateral conditional mean spillover effects between the five currency spot and futures markets. Third, we also find that there is a bilateral asymmetric volatility spillover effects between British pound, Canadian dollar, Brasilian Real and won/dollar spot and futures market. However there is a unilateral asymmetric volatility spillover effect from Australian dollar futures to cash market, not vice versa. From these empirical results we infer that most of currency futures markets have a much better price discovery function than currency cash market and are inefficient to the information.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.155-180
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• 2009

This study is to estimate and compare hedging effectiveness in emerging currency and advanced currency futures markets. Emerging currency futures includes Korea won, Mexico peso, and Brazil real and advanced currency futures is Europe euro, British pound, and Japan yen. Hedging effectiveness is measured by comparing hedging performance of the naive hedge model, OLS model, error correction model and constant condintional correlation bivariate GARCH(1, 1) hedge model based on rolling windows. Analysis data is used daily spot and futures rates from January, 2, 2001 to March. 10, 2006. The empirical results are summarized as follows : First, irrespective of hedging period and model, hedging using Korea won/dollar futures reduces spot rate's volatility risk by 97%. Second, Korea won/dollar futures market produces the best hedging performance in emerging and advanced currency futures markets, i.e. Mexico peso, Brazil real, Europe euro, British pound, and Japan yen. Third, there are no difference of hedging effectiveness among hedging models.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.255-269
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• 2020

Purpose - This paper analyzes the market efficiency focusing on the long memory properties of the domestic futures market. By decomposing futures prices into yield and volatility and looking at the long memory properties of the time series, this study aims to understand the futures market pricing and change behavior and risks, specifically and in detail. Design/methodology/approach - This study analyzes KOSPI 200 futures, KOSDAQ 150 futures, 3 and 10-year government bond futures, US dollar futures, yen futures, and euro futures, which are among the most actively traded on the Korea Exchange. To analyze the long memory and market efficiency, we used the Variance Ratio, Rescaled-Range(R/S), Geweke and Porter-Hudak(GPH) tests as semi- parametric methods, and ARFIMA-FIGARCH model as the parametric method. Findings - It was found that all seven futures supported the efficiency market hypothesis because the property of long memory turned out not to exist in their yield curves. On the other hand, in futures volatility, all 7 futures showed long memory properties in the analysis, which means that if new information is generated in the domestic futures market and the market volatility once expanded due to the impact, it does not decrease or shrink for a long period of time, but continues to affect the volatility. Research implications or Originality - The results of this paper suggest that it can be useful information for predicting changes and risks of volatility in the domestic futures market. In particular, it was found that the long memory properties would be further strengthened in the currency futures and bond rate futures markets after the global financial crisis if the regime changes of the domestic financial market are taken into account in the analysis.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.51-74
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• 2009

The purpose of this study is to ascertain that how the futures market of the Japanese frozen shrimp that is the only fisheries asset all over the world can be efficient. Accordingly, this paper examines efficiency and information flow of the Japanese frozen shrimp market using data from Kansai Commodities Exchange frozen shrimp futures closing prices and spot prices. And then this paper estimates a forward price model using that data. From the model, risk premium is estimated and we could also analyse the future information flow into the futures market which reveals future spot prices. This thesis reached to conclusions as follows: First, the null of zero risk premium is rejected and the value of that is negative. Second, the time pattern of information flow into the futures market is that most of the information on future price arrives within a week and for the last week, most of relevant information is already incorporated. The result of this study contrasts with that of Stockman(1978) about currency futures market of U.S.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.1-34
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• 2020

Purpose - In this study, we investigate determinants of hedging with derivatives and its effect on firm value and firm risk for Korean firms. Design/methodology - To avoid the endogeneity problem pointed out in previous studies, we use a two-stage analysis by using gains and losses from derivatives as instrument variable for hedging with derivatives. Findings - Our analysis on the determinants of hedging shows that firms that are more leveraged and less profitable, and with more growth opportunities are likely to hedge through derivatives. Additionally, large firms, firms less diversified into industry, and firms more diversified geographically are likely to use derivatives. Our two-stage analysis shows that indicators of hedging with derivatives have an insignificant effect on firm value, and the indicator of futures/forwards use and of swaps use have significant negative effect on firm value. Whereas, the extent of hedging with derivatives has positive effect on firm value for all types of foreign currency derivatives, which suggests that moderately low hedgers use derivatives inefficiently, but extensive hedgers use derivatives properly. With regard to firm risk, hedging with derivatives increases market-based risk, but decreases accounting-based risk. Thus, we conclude that Korean firms use derivatives to manage operational volatility rather than to manage market risk, and accounting-based risk reduction through hedging is not directly translated into higher firm value. Originality/value - This is not the first study to investigate hedging behavior of Korean firms, but the sample period that that this study analyzed is the longest and various method are used to control the endogeneity problem. We investigate not only total foreign currency derivatives but also by types of derivatives, including futures/forwards, options, and swaps.

• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.351-373
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• 2009

An index fund is a collective investment scheme that aims to replicate the movements of an index of a specific financial market regardless of market conditions. An index fund is a popular investment alternative because it is much cheaper to run than an active fund and it performs better than actively managed funds. This paper illustrates the usefulness of wavelet analysis in constructing an index fund. The wavelet analysis can decompose the time series data in frequency domain as well as in time domain. The major findings of this paper are as follows. First, the beta coefficient that represents the systematic risk has the scale dependent property. This result can provide important information to the investors with various investment time frequency. Investors can use the betas corresponding to their investment frequencies among the various scale betas estimated by wavelet analysis. Second, we can find the usefulness of wavelet analysis in constructing index fund because the wavelet technique gives less tracking error(difference between the index performance and the index fund performance) than the traditional constructing techniques. The result of this study implies that the wavelet techniques can be an important analytic method to the other financial markets such as option market, futures market, bond markets and currency market.

• Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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• v.9 no.12
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• pp.133-140
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• 2019

This study examines the reason of a staggering trade deficit on the Korean agro-food industry. To achieve the goal of the study, this study suggests the policy implication for enlargement a trade deficit with foreign exchange rate. Despite the majority of grain importer does realize that there is a huge affection for price volatility on the business result, they are more likely to take flat pricing through the physical market to avoid risk of price volatility with exchange rate. Also the analysis of external and internal environments around the Korean agro-food export & import are conducted, particularly with the analysis of trade volume and food price affecting the export & import. Results from a survey show that the common factor to the effective use of overseas agricultural and foreign currency futures trading for grain traders in Korea.