• Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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• v.40 no.5
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• pp.449-456
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• 2022

This study proposes a deep learning algorithm to predict crop yield using GIS (Geographic Information System) to extract soil properties from Soilgrids and soil suitability class maps. The proposed model modified the structure of a published CNN-RNN (Convolutional Neural Network-Recurrent Neural Network) based crop yield prediction model suitable for the domestic crop environment. The existing model has two characteristics. The first is that it replaces the original yield with the average yield of the year, and the second is that it trains the data of the predicted year. The new model uses the original field value to ensure accuracy, and the network structure has been improved so that it can train only with data prior to the year to be predicted. The proposed model predicted the yield per unit area of autumn cabbage for kimchi by region based on weather, soil, soil suitability classes, and yield data from 1980 to 2020. As a result of computing and predicting data for each of the four years from 2018 to 2021, the error amount for the test data set was about 10%, enabling accurate yield prediction, especially in regions with a large proportion of total yield. In addition, both the proposed model and the existing model show that the error gradually decreases as the number of years of training data increases, resulting in improved general-purpose performance as the number of training data increases.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.1-14
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• 2015

Climate change caused by elevated greenhouse gases would affect crop production through different pathways in agricultural ecosystems. Because an agricultural ecosystem has complex interactions between societal and economical environment as well as organisms, climate, and soil, adaptation measures in response to climate change on a specific sector could cause undesirable impacts on other sectors inadvertently. An integrated system, which links individual models for components of agricultural ecosystems, would allow to take into account complex interactions existing in a given agricultural ecosystem under climate change and to derive proper adaptation measures in order to improve crop productivity. Most of models for agricultural ecosystems have been used in a separate sector, e.g., prediction of water resources or crop growth. Few of those models have been desiged to be connected to other models as a module of an integrated system. Threfore, it would be crucial to redesign and to refine individual models that have been used for simulation of individual sectors. To improve models for each sector in terms of accuracy and algorithm, it would also be needed to obtain crop growth data through construction of super-sites and satellite sites for long-term monitoring of agricultural ecosystems. It would be advantageous to design a model in a sector from abstraction and inheritance of a simple model, which would facilitate development of modules compatible to the integrated prediction system. Because agricultural production is influenced by social and economical sectors considerably, construction of an integreated system that simulates agricultural production as well as economical activities including trade and demand is merited for prediction of crop production under climate change.

• Agribusiness and Information Management
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.1-11
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• 2014

The purpose of this study is to develop the growth prediction model that can predict growth and development information influencing on the production of citrus fruits. The growth model was developed to predict the floral leaf ratio, number of fruit sets, fruit width, and overweight fruits depending on the main period of growth and development by considering the weather factors because the fruit production is influenced by weather depending on the growth and development period. To predict the outdoor-grown citrus fruit production, the investigation result for the standard farms is used as the basic data; in this study, we also understood that the influence of weather factors on the citrus fruit production based on the data from 2004 to 2013 of the outdoor-grown citrus fruit observation report in which the standard farms were targeted by the Agricultural Research Service and suggested the growth and development information prediction model with the weather information as an independent variable to build the observation model. The growth and development model for outdoor-grown citrus fruits was assumed by using the Ordinary Least Square method (OLS), and the developed growth prediction model can make a prediction in advance with the weather factors prior to the observation investigation for the citrus fruit production. To predict the growth and development information of the production of citrus fruits having a great ripple effect as a representative crop in Jeju agriculture, the prediction result regarding the production applying the weather factors depending on growth and development period could be applied usefully.

• Atmosphere
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.637-656
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• 2021

The United States has been known as the world's major producer of crops such as wheat, corn, and soybeans. Therefore, using meteorological long-term forecast data to project reliable crop yields in the United States is important for planning domestic food policies. The current study is part of an effort to improve the seasonal predictability of regional-scale precipitation across the United States for estimating crop production in the country. For the purpose, a dynamic downscaling method using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is utilized. The WRF simulation covers the crop-growing period (March to October) during 2000-2020. The initial and lateral boundary conditions of WRF are derived from the Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model (PNU CGCM), a participant model of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) Long-Term Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System. For bias correction of downscaled daily precipitation, empirical quantile mapping (EQM) is applied. The downscaled data set without and with correction are called WRF_UC and WRF_C, respectively. In terms of mean precipitation, the EQM effectively reduces the wet biases over most of the United States and improves the spatial correlation coefficient with observation. The daily precipitation of WRF_C shows the better performance in terms of frequency and extreme precipitation intensity compared to WRF_UC. In addition, WRF_C shows a more reasonable performance in predicting drought frequency according to intensity than WRF_UC.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.73-80
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• 1993

A simplified physiologically-based dynamic model, SIMRIW was selected for predicting the growth and yield of rice. The applicability of the model to the rice cultivars and weather conditions in the Republic of Korea was evaluated. Parameters of the model were calibrated using actual rice yields in Suweon region and an optimization scheme, Constrained Rosenbrock Algorithm. The simulated results from the calibrated model were in good agreement with the field data. The model with parameters calibrated for Suweon was applied to other five regions for the evaluation of transferability, but the simulated results fell short of satisfaction. However, the model is found to be applied to real-time prediction of the growth and yield of rice crop, which is believed to be useful for timely rice crop management, agricultural policy making, and optimal irrigation water management.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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• v.39 no.3
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• pp.204-213
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• 2020

BACKGROUND: Since the number of crops cultivated in reclaimed land is huge, it is very difficult to quantify the total crop production. Therefore, a non-destructive method for predicting crop production is needed. Salt tolerant root vegetables such as red beets and sugar beet are suitable for cultivation in reclaimed land. If their underground biomass can be predicted, it helps to estimate crop productivity. Objectives of this study are to investigate maximum leaf length and weight of red beet, sugar beet, and turnips grown in reclaimed land, and to determine optimal model with regression analysis for linear and allometric growth models. METHODS AND RESULTS: Maximum leaf length, width, and root fresh weight of red beets, sugar beets, and turnips were measured. Ten linear models and six allometric growth models were selected for estimation of root fresh weight and non-linear regression analysis was conducted. The allometric growth model, which have a variable multiplied by square of maximum leaf length and maximum leaf width, showed highest R² values of 0.67, 0.70, and 0.49 for red beets, sugar beets, and turnips, respectively. Validation results of the models for red beets and sugar beets showed the R² values of 0.63 and 0.65, respectively. However, the model for turnips showed the R² value of 0.48. The allometric growth model was suitable for estimating the root fresh weight of red beets and sugar beets, but the accuracy for turnips was relatively low. CONCLUSION: The regression models established in this study may be useful to estimate the total production of root vegetables cultivated in reclaimed land, and it will be used as a non-destructive method for prediction of crop information.

• KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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• v.50 no.4
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• pp.268-275
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• 2005

Early predictions of crop yields call provide information to producers to take advantages of opportunities into market places, to assess national food security, and to provide early food shortage warning. The objectives of this study were to identify the most useful parameters for estimating yields and to compare two model selection methods for finding the 'best' model developed by multiple linear regression. This research was conducted in two 65ha corn/soybean rotation fields located in east central South Dakota. Data used to develop models were small temporal variability information (STVI: elevation, apparent electrical conductivity $(EC_a)$, slope), large temporal variability information (LTVI : inorganic N, Olsen P, soil moisture), and remote sensing information (green, red, and NIR bands and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), green normalized difference vegetation index (GDVI)). Second order Akaike's Information Criterion (AICc) and Stepwise multiple regression were used to develop the best-fitting equations in each system (information groups). The models with $\Delta_i\leq2$ were selected and 22 and 37 models were selected at Moody and Brookings, respectively. Based on the results, the most useful variables to estimate corn yield were different in each field. Elevation and $EC_a$ were consistently the most useful variables in both fields and most of the systems. Model selection was different in each field. Different number of variables were selected in different fields. These results might be contributed to different landscapes and management histories of the study fields. The most common variables selected by AICc and Stepwise were different. In validation, Stepwise was slightly better than AICc at Moody and at Brookings AICc was slightly better than Stepwise. Results suggest that the Alec approach can be used to identify the most useful information and select the 'best' yield models for production fields.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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• 2004.10a
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• pp.86-87
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• 2004

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.37-43
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• 2001

Crop status monitoring and yield prediction at higher spatial resolution is a valuable tool in various decision making processes including agricultural policy making by the national and local governments. A prototype crop forecasting system was developed to project the size of rice crop across geographic areas nationwide, based on daily weather pattern. The system consists of crop models and the input data for 1,455 cultivation zone units (the smallest administrative unit of local government in South Korea called "Myun") making up the coterminous South Korea. CERES-rice, a rice crop growth simulation model, was tuned to have genetic characteristics pertinent to domestic cultivars. Daily maximum/minimum temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation surface on 1km by 1km grid spacing were prepared by a spatial interpolation of 63 point observations from the Korea Meteorological Administration network. Spatial mean weather data were derived for each Myun and transformed to the model input format. Soil characteristics and management information at each Myun were available from the Rural Development Administration. The system was applied to the forecasting of national rice production for the recent 3 years (1997 to 1999). The model was run with the past weather data as of September 15 each year, which is about a month earlier than the actual harvest date. Simulated yields of 1,455 Myuns were grouped into 162 counties by acreage-weighted summation to enable the validation, since the official production statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry is on the county basis. Forecast yields were less sensitive to the changes in annual climate than the reported yields and there was a relatively weak correlation between the forecast and the reported yields. However, the projected size of rice crop at each county, which was obtained by multiplication of the mean yield with the acreage, was close to the reported production with the $r^2$ values higher than 0.97 in all three years.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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• 2002.10a
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• pp.85-88
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• 2002

This paper presents the result of the Water Erosion Prediction Project(WEPP) watershed scale model's application for prediction of sediment yield from a watershed which is comprised of hillslopes and channels and analyses of the soil loss from hillslopes and channels with crop practice and shape. To evaluate the model's application, the model is applied to a watershed that comprised of six hillslope and one channel, and the result was a good agreement with the observed values. The soil loss from hillslope was increased as the hills lope was under fallow conditions and slope length was longer. The soil loss from the channel was increased at the downstream for the concentration of flow.