• Title/Summary/Keyword: Credit sales management

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Optimization of Multiclass Support Vector Machine using Genetic Algorithm: Application to the Prediction of Corporate Credit Rating (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 다분류 SVM의 최적화: 기업신용등급 예측에의 응용)

  • Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2014
  • Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.

A Study on Non-financial Factors Affecting the Insolvency of Social Enterprises (사회적기업의 부실에 영향을 미치는 비재무요인에 관한 연구 )

  • Yong-Chan, Chun;Hyeok, Kim;Dong-Myung, Lee
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.21 no.11
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    • pp.13-27
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to contribute to the reduction of the failure rate and social costs resulting from business failures by analyzing factors that affect the insolvency of social enterprises, as the role of social enterprises is increasing in our economy. The data used in this study were classified as normal and insolvent companies among social enterprises (including prospective social enterprises) that were established between 2009 and 2018 and received credit guarantees from credit guarantee institutions as of the end of June 2022. Among the collected data, 439 social enterprises with available financial information were targeted; 406 (92.5%) were normal enterprises, and 33 (7.5%) were insolvent enterprises. Through a literature review, eight non-financial factors commonly used for insolvency prediction were selected. The cross-analysis results showed that four of these factors were significant. Logistic regression analysis revealed that two variables, including corporate credit rating and the personal credit rating of the representative, were significant. Financial factors such as debt ratio, sales operating profit rate, and total asset turnover were used as control variables. The empirical analysis confirmed that the two independent variables maintained their influence even after controlling for financial factors. Given that government-led support and development policies have limitations, there is a need to shift policy direction so that various companies aspiring to create social value can enter the social enterprise sector through private and regional initiatives. This would enable the social economy to create an environment where local residents can collaborate to realize social value, and the government should actively support this.

The Study on the Risk Predict Method and Government Funds Supporting for Small and Medium Enterprises (로짓분석을 통한 중소기업 정책자금 지원의 위험예측력에 대한 연구)

  • Choi, Chang-Yeoul;Ham, Hyung-Bum
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2009
  • Prior bankruptcy studies have established that bankrupt firm's pre-filing financial ratios are different from those of healthy firms or of randomly selected going concerns. However, they may not be sufficiently different from the financial ratios of other firms in financial distress to allow the development of a ratio-based model that predicts bankruptcy with reasonable accuracy. As the result, in the multiple discriminant model, independent variables divided firms into bankrupt firms and healthy firms are retained earnings to total asset, receivable turnover, net income to sales, financial expenses, inventory turnover, owner's equity to total asset, cash flow to current liability, and current asset to current liability. Moreover four variables Retained earnings to total asset, net income to sales, total asset turnover, owner's equity to total asset indicate that these valuables classify bankrupt firms and distress firms. On the other hand, Owner's Equity to borrowed capital, Ordinary income to Net Sales, Operating Income to Total Asset, Total Asset Turnover and Inventory Turnover are selected to predict bankruptcy possibility in the Logistic regression model.

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Technology Financing for Export-Import based Small and Medium Sized Enterprises: Focused on Supported Enterprises by the Export-Import Bank of Korea (수출입 중소기업의 기술금융에 관한 연구: 한국수출입은행 지원기업을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Gem-ma;Kim, Sang-Bong
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.14 no.7
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    • pp.11-20
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    • 2016
  • This study examines the possibility of implementing the technology financing for export-import based small and medium sized enterprises. Our sample consists of 2,753 small and medium sized enterprises, receiving financial support from the Export-Import Bank of Korea for the period of 2011-2013. We find that only 400(200) firms reserve IPs(patents) annually. Given that IPs are likely to concentrate on manufacturer industries such as electronic components, computers, video, sound and communication equipment manufacturing(KSIC 26), other machinery and equipment manufacturing(KSIC 29), manufacture of motor vehicles and trailers(KSIC 31). We also find that the total assets, sales and R&D expenses of IP holding companies greatly exceeds those of companies without IPs. In addition, IP holding companies' liquidity seems slight edge and the leverage ratio is somewhat lower. However, profitability ratios of IP holding companies are rather than harsh or similar level. 20~30% of IP holding firms show very week credit scores, implying that banks' default risk is expected to be significant.

A Study on Characteristics of Eco-friendly Behaviors using Big Data: Focusing on the Customer Sales Data of Green Card (빅 데이터를 활용한 친환경행동 특성에 관한 연구: 대용량 그린카드 거래데이터를 중심으로)

  • Lim, Mi Sun;Kim, Jinhwa;Byeon, Hyeonsu
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.151-161
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    • 2016
  • As part of a policy to address climate change and pollution problem, the government introduced a green credit card scheme in order to motivate pro-environmental behaviors in July 2011. It is important to present the specific ways to facilitate pro-environmental behaviors using the consumer behavior pattern data. This study was a result of data from total fifty seven thousands customer purchasing history data of green credit card to be created for the 3 months from January to March 2015. As the analysis process is put in to operation the analysis of the purchasing customer's profile firstly, and the second come into association analysis to consider the buying associations for green products purchasing networks, the third estimate the useful parameters to affect the customer's pro-environmental behavior and customer characteristics. It shows that royal customers are from 30 to 40 years old and their incomes are from 30 million won to 40 million won. Especially, they live in Daegu, Gyeonggi, and Seoul.

Analysis of Factor Hindering and Promotion Strategy on the Direct Marketing of Agricultural Products (농산물 직거래 유통채널별 저해요인 분석과 활성화 방안)

  • Kim, Deok-Hyeon;Park, Gil-Seog;Lee, Su-Young;Lee, Seung-Hyun
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.14 no.12
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - This paper is for the Analysis on the Hindrance Factors and Activation Scheme by the Type of Distribution Channel in Direct transaction of Agricultural Products. As the distribution structure of agricultural products has become changable, farmers seem to use the type of direct distribution in order to enhance the receiving price. This study aims to explore the hindrance factors and income variation rate in direct transaction of agricultural produces, specifically focusing on the 167 farmers. Research design, data, and methodology - To ascertain the hindrance factors exactly by the type of distribution channel, the managements were classified by four subcategories, that is high sales percentage with shopping malls, SNS, shopping malls and SNS, and off-line direct transaction. Results - As a result of the hypothesis test, hinderance factors in online direct deal activation were found to be in the order of the difficulty in continuous content production, the difficulty in shopping mall operation and maintenance, and the difficulty in card commission problems, and in the order of the difficulties in continuous content production, the difficulty in continuous content production, the difficulty in shopping mall operation and maintenance, and the difficulty in branding for the SNS group. Thus, it can be seen that the difficulty in continuous content production, shopping mall operation and maintenance were found to be the biggest obstacles. In addition, hindering factors in online direct deal activation were found to be in the order of the difficulty in credit card settlement, the difficulty in publicity, and the difficulty in dealing with unsold goods. The group with high sales rate in shopping mall was found to be increased by 23.9% in the gross income compared to the previous year, the group with high SNS sales ratio increased by 56.5%, the group with direct offline transaction increased by 37.1%, among which the group with the highest increase rate of SNS sales ratio was found to be the highest from the rate of increase/decrease of the income, which was statistically significant. Conclusions - It can be suggested that government and local government may provide agricultural management with supporting plan which in turn can activate direct transaction in any possible ways.

Advantages and Disadvantages of a Cashless System in Thailand during the COVID-19 Pandemic

  • YAKEAN, Somkid
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.385-388
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    • 2020
  • At present, the payment system in Thailand changes from a paper-based system to a cashless payment system. A coin has its two sides, so the cashless payment has its advantages and disadvantages. This article describes the general advantages and disadvantages of a cashless society in Thailand in the COVID-19 situation. The cashless payment in Thailand consists of credit cards, automated teller machines, direct debit, mobile/Internet banking, e-Wallet, PromptPay, and QR code. The cashless payment is able to assist the government for tax collection accuracy and facilitates users to make financial transactions more transparent and efficient. In addition, the cashless system provides benefits to businesses in which they are able to increase sales and expand business by providing convenient, safe and faster services to customers in making payment for goods/services. It assists businesses to save time and cost of cash management and reduce the paperwork. The cashless payment made the life of students, housewives, and elderly people very easy to carry out financial transactions and there is no need to meet the financial institution staff. This payment system needs advanced technology system skills, a smartphone, and a technology facility. Finally, the cashless payment can reduce the spreading of COVID-19.

The Influence of Financial Inclusion on MSMEs' Performance Through Financial Intermediation and Access to Capital

  • RATNAWATI, Kusuma
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.11
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    • pp.205-218
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to analyze the influence of financial inclusion on micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises' (MSMEs) performance and examine the mediation role of financial intermediation and access to capital. The object of this study is MSMEs in Malang, Indonesia. The sample consists of 100 MSME actors in Malang City, which is determined using Roscoes theory. The data is collected using Simple Random Sampling method, by distributing questionnaire measured with Likert scales. The hypotheses proposed in this study are examined using Partial Least Square (PLS) model. The results of this study show that financial inclusion influences MSMEs' performance both directly and indirectly through mediation from financial intermediation and access to capital. The direct influence means that the efforts to increase access to financial services, especially access to credit financing for MSMEs, will be able to increase market share, number of workers, sales, as well as profit of the MSMEs. Increased financial inclusion has a major impact on improving MSMEs' performance through financial intermediation compared to access to capital. This means that the increase of financial access for MSMEs followed by an increase in financial intermediation in the form of a financial service approach to MSMEs will improve MSMEs' performance.

Study on Management Plan of the Financial Supervisory Service According to Increase of Risk of Household Debts (금융권 가계부채 위험증가에 따른 금융감독원 관리방안에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, YunHong
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.96-106
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    • 2018
  • The government adopted activation policy of real estate to overcome low economic growth rate. Real estate activation plan adopted by the government raised credit limit by lowering the regulation, and reduced real estate investment cost by reducing the base rate. Also, delayed transfer tax on multi-house owner to activate real estate investment and resolved purchase right resale. Relief of real estate regulate caused increase of housing sales and price increase, and the real estate market changed to overheating aspect such as premium upon completion of lot sale in a short time. Such market atmosphere greatly increased household debs as owners own houses based on 'financial debt' instead of their income. Since 2017, real estate policy was reinforced to reduce household debts and lending rate was raised due to rise of base rate, accordingly, burden of household debt is expected to increase. This research suggested a plan for the Financial Supervisory Service to efficiently manage the financial world by analyzing the cause and problem of household debs.

A Study about Internal Control Deficient Company Forecasting and Characteristics - Based on listed and unlisted companies - (내부통제 취약기업 예측과 특성에 관한 연구 - 상장기업군과 비상장기업군 중심으로 -)

  • Yoo, Kil-Hyun;Kim, Dae-Lyong
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.121-133
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    • 2017
  • The propose of study is to examine the characteristics of companies with high possibility to form an internal control weakness using forecasting model. This study use the actual listed/unlisted companies' data from K_financial institution. The first conclusion is that discriminant model is more valid than logit model to predict internal control weak companies. A discriminant model for predicting the vulnerability of internal control has high classification accuracy and has low the Type II error that is incorrectly classifying vulnerable companies to normal companies. The second conclusion is that the characteristic of weak internal control companies have a low credit rating, low asset soundness assessment, high delinquency rates, lower operating cash flow, high debt ratios, and minus operating profit to the net sales ratio. As not only a case of listed companies but unlisted companies which did not occur in previous studies are extended in this study, research results including the forecasting model can be used as a predictive tool of financial institutions predicting companies with high potential internal control weakness to prevent asset losses.