• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.12 no.10
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• pp.4359-4368
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• 2011

Among several macroeconomic missteps blamed for the recent global financial crisis including the social problems of income distribution and the lack of proper financial remedies, two of them have received particular attention: the global BOP(Balance of Payment) imbalance and the misguided monetary policy. Such BOP imbalance was blamed for massive foreign exchange investment flows from Asia into the U.S., triggering the financial and real estate bubble in America. The latter refers to the excessively loose monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which pushed financial institutions and households into reckless investment behavior in search of higher returns. Given the abuse of certain innovative financial techniques and new investment instruments that have been created in recent decades, both collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and credit default swaps (CDS) enjoyed a symbiotic and toxic relationship prior to the financial crisis This paper is organized as follows: The first section analyzes the real causes of the recent financial crisis. The second details the role of CDOs and CDS. Then, to identify key determinants of the CDS spreads in an emerging capital market, the sample data of major Korean firms' CDS spreads are used to estimate the risk premium by utilizing the multiple regression analysis. The empirical test result indicates that Korean 3-year treasury bond rate(TYIELD), market to book value ratio(MV/BV), and assets size(INASSETS) are shown to demonstrate statistically significant influences on the changes of the CDS premium for sample firms.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.151-161
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• 2016

As part of a policy to address climate change and pollution problem, the government introduced a green credit card scheme in order to motivate pro-environmental behaviors in July 2011. It is important to present the specific ways to facilitate pro-environmental behaviors using the consumer behavior pattern data. This study was a result of data from total fifty seven thousands customer purchasing history data of green credit card to be created for the 3 months from January to March 2015. As the analysis process is put in to operation the analysis of the purchasing customer's profile firstly, and the second come into association analysis to consider the buying associations for green products purchasing networks, the third estimate the useful parameters to affect the customer's pro-environmental behavior and customer characteristics. It shows that royal customers are from 30 to 40 years old and their incomes are from 30 million won to 40 million won. Especially, they live in Daegu, Gyeonggi, and Seoul.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.987-994
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• 2011

From the point view of credit evaluation whose population is divided into the default and non-default state, two methods are considered to estimate conditional distribution functions: one is to estimate under the assumption that the data is followed the mixture normal distribution and the other is to use the kernel density estimation. The parameters of normal mixture are estimated using the EM algorithm. For the kernel density estimation, five kinds of well known kernel functions and four kinds of the bandwidths are explored. In addition, the corresponding ROC functions are obtained based on the estimated distribution functions. The goodness-of-fit of the estimated distribution functions are discussed and the performance of the ROC functions are compared. In this work, it is found that the kernel distribution functions shows better fit, and the ROC function obtained under the assumption of normal mixture shows better performance.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.243-255
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• 2016

The developed composite index has limits to estimate and predict economic status due to economic pattern change and the response change of explanatory variables. A higher precedence individual indicators should be selected to predict the future accurately. In this study, effectiveness of Jeju Island precedence indicators consists of constituents in the area, the consumer price index, services production index, mining and manufacturing production index. The average temperature of Seogwipo and credit card purchase amount is reviewed as an economic turning point consideration and time lag correlation analysis with real data. In addition, we suggest the proper reference cycle in Jeju composite precedence index and evaluate the configuration in leading indicators for Jeju by comparing national economic indicators. Based on the derived results, the current problems of Jeju Island precedence indicators will be illustrated and the improvement methods to estimate a regional composite index will be suggested.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.413-418
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• 2020

The travel pattern of tourists for the development of the tourist course is designed to collect and analyze tourist information based on the big data of the carrier to improve the quality of the tourist course. In particular, the analyzed data is used to derive empirical data that can estimate the effect of tourists' inflow into tourism, and to utilize the information as basic data for the development of the tourist course. In addition, the travel pattern of tourists for the development of regional tourism courses is to collect and analyze information on the route and duration of tourists' travel based on big data collected by telecom operators, credit card companies and other data to improve the quality of tourist course development, and to derive empirical data to estimate the effect of tourist inflow through the analyzed data, based on the characteristics of the tourism course and the data needed for the development of new tourist courses in the future.

• Journal of Sensor Science and Technology
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.47-54
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• 1995

Sensory measurements are inevitably uncertain, and this may decrease the reliability of sensor feedback systems. In this paper we present a method to achieve reliable measurements using multiple sensors. Assuming sensors with unknown characteristics in dynamic surroundings, readings from the sensors are clustered and fused with the estimated degrees of credit. In the experiment performed with logical sensors the technique proposed is employed to adaptively estimate the measurand under the circumstances where an existing probabilistic technique is difficult to be applied. The technique proposed may be useful for automatic systems working in unstructured environments - for example, sensory robots employed for intelligent manipulation.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.295-302
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• 2020

The paper aims to investigate the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on private investment with a sample having 49 developing countries in Asia (17 countries) and Africa (32 countries) during the period of 1990-2017. Unlike previous studies, we split the data into three groups for further analysis, including the Asian, African and the full-panel samples. The results confirm a crowding-in effect which shows that foreign direct investment promotes private investment on all three research samples. Besides, the lagged private investment has a positive and significant effect on itself in the next period which reflects the inertia in the trend of private investment in recipient countries. In the full-panel sample, there are some macro factors such as GDP per capita, trade openness, and electricity that also have a positive and statistically significant impact on private investment. Besides, when more deeply estimate with smaller samples, we find that trade openness and labour force have a positive and significant in Africa, on the other hand, not in Asia. However, the domestic credit variable has a negative and significant effect on private investment only in Asian developing countries. Furthermore, there is only a positive and significant impact of the electricity variable on private investment in Asia.

• Knowledge Management Research
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.95-109
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• 2010

The objectives of this study are to identify the survival function (hazard function) of small and medium enterprises by using technology rating data for the companies guaranteed by Korea Technology Finance Corporation (KOTEC), and to figure out the factors that affects their survival. To serve the purposes, this study uses Kaplan-Meier Analysis as a non-parametric method and Cox proportional hazards model as a semi-parametric one. The 17,396 guaranteed companies that assessed from July 1st in 2005 to December 31st in 2009 are selected as samples (16,504 censored data and 829 accident data). The survival time is computed with random censoring (Type III) from July in 2005 as a starting point. The results of the analysis show that Kaplan-Meier Analysis and Cox proportional hazards model are able to readily estimate survival and hazard function and to perform comparative study among group variables such as industry and technology rating level. In particular, Cox proportional hazards model is recognized that it is useful to understand which technology rating items are meaningful to company's survival and how much they affect it. It is considered that these results will provide valuable knowledge for practitioners to find and manage the significant items for survival of the guaranteed companies through future technology rating.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.9
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• pp.377-388
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• 2020

The research identifies hypotheses evaluating the impact of board characteristics on the risk of the commercial bank as well as examining the determinants of bank risk in Vietnam over a 10-year period, starting from 2008. Also, in this research, the differences between the roles of women and men in decision-making are tested. Based on this decision, risks of the banks may arise. Ordinary least squares(OLS) regression, Random effect method, and Fixed effect method are used to estimate the factors that have an impact on bank risk for dataset of all commercial banks in Vietnam. The results found that equity-to-asset ratio, bank performance and the economic growth have an inverse relationship with bank risk, while the size of bank has a positive relationship with the bank risk. One of the highlights of this paper is a demonstration of the relationship between CEO's gender and bank risk. The test result shows that the bank led by a female faces a higher overall risk level and credit risk than a bank led by a male. Based on this result, the paper also makes recommendations to Government, the State Bank of Vietnam and the commercial banks for effective risk management.

• IE interfaces
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.24-39
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• 2011

In this paper, we study the methodology for the measurement and integration of market risk and credit risk using Copula. We apply the methodology of Rosenberg, and Schuermann(2006) to the assets of pension system. Firstly we estimate dynamics of risk factors and their effects on investment returns, then use the estimated result to simulate future movement of risk factors and distribution of investment returns. Finally we measure integrated risk using integrated return distribution by Copula and simulated future investment return distributions. We found the integrated risk changing with the correlation of risks and investment weights of risks and confirmed the diversification effect of risks. This result is consistent when we use normal Copula and normal marginals, t-Copula and t(3) marginals, and normal Copula and non-parametric marginals. And in the case of non-parametric maginals, larger integrated risk is calculated. It means that use of non-parametric marginals is more conservative.