• Title/Summary/Keyword: Credit Cycle

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A Study on the Impact of Business Cycle on Corporate Credit Spreads (글로벌 회사채 스프레드에 대한 경기요인 영향력 분석: 기업 신용스프레드에 대한 경기사이클의 설명력 추정을 중심으로)

  • Jae-Yong Choi
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.221-240
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - This paper investigates how business cycle impacts on corporate credit spreads since global financial crisis. Furthermore, it tests how the impact changes by the phase of the cycle. Design/methodology/approach - This study collected dataset from Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index through the Bloomberg. It conducted multi-regression analysis by projecting business cycle using Hodrick-Prescott filtering and various cyclical variables, while ran dynamic analysis of 5-variable Vector Error Correction Model to confirm the robustness of the test. Findings - First, it proves to be statistically significant that corporate credit spreads have moved countercyclicaly since the crisis. Second, It indicates that the corporate credit spread's countercyclicality to the macroeconomic changes works symmetrically by the phase of the cycle. Third, the VECM supports that business cycle's impact on the spreads maintains more sustainably than other explanatory variable does in the model. Research implications or Originality - It becomes more appealing to accurately measure the real economic impact on corporate credit spreads as the interaction between credit and business cycle deepens. The economic impact on the spreads works symmetrically by boom and bust, which implies that the market stress could impact as another negative driver during the bust. Finally, the business cycle's sustainable impact on the spreads supports the fact that the economic recovery is the key driver for the resilience of credit cycle.

Supply Chain Coordination Under a Trade Credit Contract and a Quantity Discount Contract (외상판매 계약과 물량할인 계약을 통한 공급망 협력 방안)

  • Lee Chang-Hwan;Lim Jay-Ick
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.25-36
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    • 2006
  • Consider a supply chain in which a vendor supplies a product to a buyer. We assume that the buyer's and vendor's inventory cost structures are different, resulting in differences in inventory order/delivery cycle times. Here, if one party insists on its individually optimal order/delivery quantity, the other party will suffer from mismatches in cycle times. Under this scenario, coordination contracts that make use of either a Net Term/Two parts Term Trade Credit or a Quantity Discount are designed to align individually optimal order Quantities. We compare and analyze the perform ances of these contracts. The focus of the comparison is the ability of contracts to generate a lower cost for the supply chain. We show that a Trade Credit policy can be effectively used to coordinate a supply chain. In many cases it will result in a lower supply chain cost compared to that achieved by using a Quantitative Discount policy.

A Comparative Study on Characteristics of Household Groups Depending on Decision-making of Current and Planned Credit Card Use (현재와 미래의 신용카드사용의 의사결정에 따른 가정특성에 관한 비교연구)

  • 김정훈
    • Journal of Families and Better Life
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 1989
  • The present study investigated characteristics of Korean hourehelds in the expanding stage of the family life cycle depending on decision-making of current and planned credit card use. Households which were selected for this study had at least one dependent child enrolled in primary, middle, or high school, 1998. Regarding current and planned credit card use, credit card holder (n=379) and non-holder (n=259) households and continuous (n=331) and discontinous (n=47) credit card holder households were compared. Comparisons were perfomed by t-test, one-way ANOVA, and X2-test. Related factors were households demographic characteristics, financial management behavior, perceived financial well-being, and attitudes toward credit cards. Findings indicated that holder households tended to be younger, better educated, white-collar workers, and of a higher economic status than non-holders. In comparison to non-holder households, credit card holder households had more favorable atti udes toward credit cards, reported more financial management practices, experienced less financial unbalance, and were more satisfied with their household finaces. Compared to discontinuous credit card holder households, continuous card holder households tended to be larger, have better educated wives and husbands, and have husbands who were white-collar workers. They were more likely to have higher average monthly income than discontinuous holder households. Continuous card holder households also had more favorable attitudes toward credit cards, and more strongly believed and expected financial improvement of their households, compared to discontinuous card holder households.

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The Effectiveness of Macroprudential Policy on Credit Growth at Bank-Level Data in Vietnam

  • NGUYEN, Hau Trung;PHAM, Anh Thi Hoang;DANG, Thuy T.
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.8
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    • pp.325-334
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    • 2021
  • The study investigates the effectiveness of the macroprudential policy on credit growth in Vietnam. The authors use the logic of the transmission mechanism of macroprudential policy on credit growth. Research variables include economic growth, inflation, interest rate, and quarterly bank-level data from 28 commercial banks in Vietnam during 2011-2018. The results reveal that: (i) GDP growth had a positive impact on credit growth of small banks but had no impact on large banks, (ii) Domestic Systemically Important Banks (D-SIBs) and small banks respond differently to macroprudential measures of imposing different credit growth targets for different bank groups, (iii) Restrictions on foreign currency loans are found to be effective in curbing credit growth for the full sample and small banks, (iv) Inflation and economic cycle have significantly impacted credit growth at bank-level in Vietnam and (v) Interestingly, a significant positive relationship between interest rates and credit growth is found for the full sample and D-SIBs in Vietnam. The findings suggest that a stable macroeconomic environment should be good conditions for financial stability, and monetary authority should pay more attention to small banks' behaviors than D-SIBs behavior, toward such "administration" tools since small banks tend to prefer "breaking the rules" to make profits.

Korean Housing Cycle: Implications for Risk Management (Factor-augmented VAR Approach)

  • KWON, HYUCK-SHIN;BANG, DOO WON;KIM, MYEONG HYEON
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.43-62
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    • 2017
  • This paper proposes an integrated risk-management framework that includes 1) measuring the risk of credit portfolios, 2) implementing a (macro) stress test, and 3) setting risk limits using the estimated systematic latent factor specific to capture the housing market cycle. To this end, we extract information from a set of real-estate market variables based on the FAVAR methodology proposed by Bernanke, Boivin and Eliasz (2005). Then, we show the method by which the estimated systematic factor is applied to risk management in the housing market in an integrated manner within the Vasicek one-factor credit model. The proposed methodology is well fitted to analyze the risk of slow-moving and low-defaultable forms of capital, such as alternative investments.

The Information Contents of Trade Credit (기업영업부채의 정보특성)

  • Park, Rae-Soo;Kim, Jae-Bok
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.361-371
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    • 2010
  • This paper analyses the information contents of the trade credit in Korea. Trade credit is not only a settlement device in business cycle but also an information messenger in the financial market with an asymmetric information. The empirical results support that in addition to the bank loan, trade credit takes a significant role in that it provide a cheap and reliable credit to firms that have financial difficulties because of the information problem.

A Probabilistic Order Level System When Delay in Payment Is Permissible

  • Shah, Mita H.
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.175-182
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    • 1993
  • The probabilistic order level inventory model is developed when a supplier allows some credit period T for settling the accounts for purchase quantity. The credit period T is known constant. Mathematical models are derived for both the cases i) T'.leq. T and ii) T'>T. Expressions are derived for average expected total cost of the system, the optimum cycle time and for obtaining optimum order level S = S$_{0}$ in each case. The exmaples are given to illustrate the model.

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A Study on Determinants of the Number of Banking Relationships in Korea: Firm-specific Determinants and Effects of Business Cycle (우리나라 기업의 거래은행 수 결정요인에 관한 연구: 경기변동의 영향을 포함하여)

  • Hwang, Soo-Young;Lee, Jung-Jin
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.53-80
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the determinants of the number of bank relationships in Korea. Firm-specific determinants considered here include leverage, size, age, return on asset, investment grade, tangibility, liquidity, R&D expenditure. We estimate the effects of these variables, and compare the results with those from previous studies performed for other economies. Concerning the effects of business cycle, we find that the business cycle is an important factor in determining the number of bank relationships. The number of bank relationships varies over the business cycle, and we notice a counter-cyclical behavior, which means the number decreases during economic expansions and increases during contractions. This result can be interpreted as a result of firms' diversification of borrowings into multiple banks in order to reduce the liquidity risk during the recession. In the subsets, however, the number of bank relationships for large firms is stable regardless of the business cycle. Unlisted firms, non-chaebol, and low credit quality firms which have relatively limited access to alternative sources of financing show counter-cyclical behavior. Finally, such phenomena is not observed in the non-competitive credit market, while they show a counter-cyclical behavior in the competitive credit market.

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Empirical Analysis on the Stress Test Using Credit Migration Matrix (신용등급 전이행렬을 활용한 위기상황분석에 관한 실증분석)

  • Kim, Woo-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.253-268
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we estimate systematic risk from credit migration (or transition) matrices under "Asymptotic Single Risk Factor" model. We analyzed transition matrices issued by KR(Korea Ratings) and concluded that systematic risk implied on credit migration somewhat coincide with the real economic cycle. Especially, we found that systematic risk implied on credit migration is better than that implied on the default rate. We also emphasize how to conduct a stress test using systematic risk extracted from transition migration. We argue that the proposed method in this paper is better than the usual method that is only considered for the conditional probability of default(PD). We found that the expected loss critically increased when we explicitly consider the change of credit quality in a given portfolio, compared to the method considering only PD.

The Effect of Family Life Cycle and Financial Management Practices on Household Saving Patterns

  • Lee Seong-Lim;Park Myung-Hee;Montalto Catherine P.
    • International Journal of Human Ecology
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.79-93
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    • 2000
  • Using the 1995 Survey of Consumer Finances, this study investigates how family life-cycle stages and financial management practices affect household saving. First findings are that household income and householders education, race and ethnicity have significant effects on saving. Second, regarding the effect of the family life-cycle stages, younger married couples without children, middle pre-retired households without dependent children, and older households without dependent children are more likely to save than other similar households in the life-cycle stage of younger single households. Third, households with longer financial planning horizons, saving goals for retirement, purchase of durable goods and emergency goods, and low credit card debt are more likely to save. Based on the results, implications for financial management education and public policy are suggested.

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