• 제목/요약/키워드: Credible region

검색결과 14건 처리시간 0.019초

Reference-Intrinstic Analysis for the Difference between Two Normal Means

  • Jang, Eun-Jin;Kim, Dal-Ho;Lee, Kyeong-Eun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제14권1호
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    • pp.11-21
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, we consider a decision-theoretic oriented, objective Bayesian inference for the difference between two normal means with unknown com-mon variance. We derive the Bayesian reference criterion as well as the intrinsic estimator and the credible region which correspond to the intrinsic discrepancy loss and the reference prior. We illustrate our results using real data analysis as well as simulation study.

An Objective Bayesian Inference for the Difference between Two Normal Means

  • Jang, Eun-Jin;Kim, Dal-Ho;Lee, Kyeong-Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제17권4호
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    • pp.1365-1374
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    • 2006
  • In this paper, we consider a decision-theoretic oriented, objective Bayesian inference for the difference between two normal means with known variances. We derive the Bayesian reference criterion as well as the intrinsic estimator and the credible region which correspond to the intrinsic discrepancy loss and the reference prior. We show the similarity between derived two-sample results and the results for the one-sample case in Bernardo(1999).

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Reference-Intrinsic Analysis for the Ratio of Two Normal Variances

  • Jang, Eun-Jin;Kim, Dal-Ho;Lee, Kyeong-Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제18권1호
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    • pp.219-228
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, we consider a decision-theoretic oriented, objective Bayesian inference for the ratio of two normal variances. Specifically we derive the Bayesian reference criterion as well as the intrinsic estimator and the credible region which correspond to the intrinsic discrepancy loss and the reference prior. We illustrate our results using real data analysis and simulation study.

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지역별 순환농업의 유형에 관한 연구 (A Study on Area Types of Recycling Agriculture)

  • 조익환
    • 한국유기농업학회지
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    • 제11권3호
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    • pp.91-108
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    • 2003
  • So far, we have pursued only convenient and efficient growth of economy, as a result, environment surrounding us has been destroyed and the rights of our existence gotten to be even threatened. We need to ensure our lives and at the same time, need a power with which agriculture undertakes global circulation structure and a power that is able to preserve our environment we live per so. Therefore, in the near future, the final objectives of agriculture structure for 21st century would be to increase productivity of highly developed agricultural products in accordance with the ecosystem and a recycling agriculture. What is a recycling agriculture\ulcorner In the narrow sense, it means provisions-producing- system related to interactive recycle of material among forestry, livestock husbandry and seeding agriculture. In the broad sense, it means to produce credible agricultural product by keeping balanced resources via conversion to complete degradable material of organic wastes produce within rural village. Based on this concept, finally, our goal is to construct the resources recycling community. Environment friendly agriculture ⇒ organic agriculture ⇒ recycling (circulation) agriculture ⇒ construction of community with resources recycling. Therefore, in order to construct recycling agriculture, most of all, it is considered that the following, it should be established reasonable standard amounts for fertilizer, manure and liquid fertilizer based on results of soil test by each region, nature-recycling form of crops production and livestock production systems by maximizing utilization of different recycling byproducts occurring in the crop producing process by each region.

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HadCRU4 관측 온도자료와 20CR 재분석 자료 비교로부터 확인된 1900년대 초반 극지역 평균 온도 추정의 불확실성 (Uncertainty in the Estimation of Arctic Surface Temperature during Early 1900s Revealed by the Comparison between HadCRU4 and 20CR Reanalysis)

  • 김백민;김진영
    • 한국기후변화학회지
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    • 제6권2호
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    • pp.95-104
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    • 2015
  • To discuss whether we have credible estimations about historical surface temperature evolution since industrial revolution or not, present study investigates consistencies and differences of averaged surface air temperature since 1900 between the multiple data sources: Hadley Center Climate Research Unit (HadCRU4) surface air temperature data, ECMWF 20 Century Reanalysis data (ERA20CR), and NCEP 20 Century Reanalysis data (NCEP20CR). Averaged surface temperatures are obtained for the global, polar (90S~60S, 60N~0N), midlatitude (60S~30S, 30N~60N), tropical (30S~30N) region, separately. From the analysis, we show that: 1) spatio-temporal inhomogenity and scarcity of HadCRU4 data are not major obstacles in the reliable estimation of global surface air temperature. 2) Globally averaged temperature variability is largely contributed by those of tropical and midlatitude, which occupy more than 70% of earth surface in area. 3) Both data show consistent temperature variability in tropical region. 4) ERA20CR does not capture warm period over Arctic region in early 1900s, which is obvious feature in HadCRU4 data. Discrepancies among datasets suggest that high-level caution is needed especially in the interpretation of large Arctic warming in the early 1900s, which is often regarded as a natural variability in the Arctic region.

일반화 극단 분포를 이용한 강우량 예측 (Prediction of extreme rainfall with a generalized extreme value distribution)

  • 성용규;손중권
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제24권4호
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    • pp.857-865
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    • 2013
  • 집중 호우로 인한 피해가 증가하면서 다양한 기법들을 이용하여 강우량 예측에 대한 관심이 높아졌다. 최근에는 극단분포를 활용하여 강우량을 예측하려는 시도가 늘고 있다. 본 연구에서는 일반화 극단 분포를 활용하여 실제 서울시의 1973년부터 2010년까지 7월달의 사후예측분포를 생성하고, 수치적인 계산을 위해서 MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo)알고리즘을 활용하였다. 이 연구를 통해서 사후예측분포의 점추정값들을 비교하였고 2011년 7월달의 자료와 비교해 봤을 때 집중 호우의 확률이 증가한 것을 알 수 있었다.

Establishing a pre-mining baseline of natural radionuclides distribution and radiation hazard for the Bled El-Hadba sedimentary phosphate deposits (North-Eastern Algeria)

  • S. Benarous;A. Azbouche;B. Boumehdi;S. Chegrouche;N. Atamna;R. Khelifi
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제54권11호
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    • pp.4253-4264
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    • 2022
  • Since the implementation of the phosphate project in Bled El-Hadba (BEH) deposit, western region of Tébessa, no detailed study has been conducted to assess the natural radioactivity distribution and the associated radiological risk parameter for this open-pit mine. For the sake of determining a credible premining reference database for the region of interest, 21 samples were collected from different geological layers of the above-mentioned deposit. Gamma Spectrometry was applied for measuring radioactivity using a high resolution HPGe semiconductor detector. The obtained activity results have shown a significant broad variation in the radioactive contents for the different phosphate samples. The total average concentrations (in Bq·kg-1) for 226Ra, 238U, 235U, 232Th and 40K computed for the different type of phosphate layers were found to be 570 ± 169, 788 ± 280, 52 ± 18, 66 ± 6 and 81 ± 18 respectively. The mean activity concentrations of the measured radionuclides were compared to other regional and worldwide deposits. The ratios between the detected radioisotopes have been calculated for spatial distribution of natural radionuclides in the study area. Based on the aforementioned activity concentrations, the corresponding radiation hazard parameters were assessed. Correlations between the obtained parameters were drawn and a multivariate statistical analysis (Pearson Correlation, Cluster and Factor analysis) was carried out in order to identify the existing relationships.

关于东北亚地区内 "建设性的微边主义, 小区域主义" 制度 建设的必要性和效果的研究 -以韩国的视角为中心 - (A Study on the necessity and Effect of constructive minilateralism and subregionalism in Northeast Asia: Focused on Korean perspective)

  • Kim, Jaekwan
    • 분석과 대안
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    • 제4권1호
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    • pp.63-87
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    • 2020
  • This article not only theoretically explores the necessity and effect of constructive minilateralism and subregionalism in Northeast Asia, but also delves into a series of practical solutions from viewpoint of seeking common ground while reserving differences in this region. The main contents are as follows: First, the various obstacles that hinder the formation of regionalism, subregionalism and minilateralism in the Northeast Asia are discussed. That is to say, geopolitical realism, My Country First ideology, exclusive nationalism in the socio-historical context, and North Korea's latest provocations, etc. Second, this article explores the philosophy and basic principles of realizing Northeast Asia regionalism and minilateralism. Third, in the 21st century, Northeast Asia becomes the center of the world. It examines the core points, controversial focus and platform for building sub regionalism in the region. Finally, based on the institutional platform such as minilateralism and sub regionalism, the various ideas and practical plans of cross-border cooperation among major countries in Northeast Asia were discussed. Because there are a lot of obstacles, so first of all it is more appropriate to promote economic or functional minilateralism or sub regionalism than multilateral cooperation. In order to promote the formation of regionalism and minilateralism in Northeast Asia, the issues to be considered are as follows: First, for the sake of leading regional solidarity and minilateral economic cooperation, it is advisable for China, as a regional economic power, to implement a stable and responsible diplomacy. Secondly, regional solidarity based on credible politics and security should be promoted for a long time beyond the level of economic cooperation. Third, the primary prerequisite for the realization of Northeast Asian regionalism is that in the process of denuclearization of North Korea, the stability and peace mechanism of the Korean Peninsula should be established. Fourth, with the continued hegemonic competition between the United States and China in Northeast Asia, under the circumstance that countries in the region are pushed into so-called "East Asian Paradox", it is profoundly important for them to consider transition from the hostile relationship as the "Thucydides trap" to the order of "coexistence" in which competition and cooperation run side by side, and the two countries should explore a conversion plan for the foreign policy line. This mutual cooperation and peaceful coexistence of the US-China relationship will create a friendly atmosphere for the formation of regionalism in Northeast Asia. In the future, the cooperation of minilateralism in Northeast Asia will break the existing conflict between the maritime forces and the continental forces in order to promote peace. And along with the philosophy that "peace is economy", recent policies of common prosperity as the framework, such as China's "Belt and Road Initiative", North Korea's "Special Zone and Development Zone Policy", Russia's "New Eastern Policy", Japan's participation in the Belt and Road Initiative and South Korea's The "Korean Peninsula New Economy Map" are organically linked and it should promote the so-called "networked regionalism".

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산악지역에서의 장거리 트레일 조성 계획방법 및 적용 (The Methods and Its Application of Long Distance Trail Planning in a Mountainous Region)

  • 황국웅;장병관
    • 농촌계획
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    • 제17권3호
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    • pp.55-65
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    • 2011
  • Long distance trail or trail system planning is the first important step in transforming your vision into reality. Planning presents a vision for a trail or trail system and brings a comprehensive, long-range perspective. The master plan provides solid, credible recommendations for developing a trail or trail system that is safe, convenient, well used, supported by local residents, practicality to implement, and customized to meet the needs of the community, you will need to follow a logical planning. The key elements of master planning includes site assessment, vision, goals and objectives, routing and design, implementation strategies. Trails or trail systems should provide linkages to popular destinations, safely accommodate a variety of users, and be sensitive to any negative impacts on the natural environment and wildlife. Trails planners also need to think about how the trail, or trail system will function in the future as areas are developed or trail population increases. All of these factors during the planning process will ensure the existence of high-quality facilities for years to come. Project for Nakdong-jungmaek trail planning combine long distance trail with circuit way. That project is a planning brought out the best in each of Tokai natural way and Cotswold way. That is planning which is combined a wooded trail in Tokai natural way with access and facilities improving economy in Cotswold way. Also That planning embraces a core cultural center which is concerned forest or wood to come more people.

통계적 기법에 의한 낙동강하구 점성토 지반의 피에조콘 계수 산정 (Evaluation of Piezocone Factors for Soft Ground in the Region of Nakdong River Estuary Using Statistical Analysis)

  • 김영훈;장정호;최동찬;천병식
    • 한국지반환경공학회 논문집
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    • 제10권7호
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    • pp.53-66
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    • 2009
  • 피에조콘 관입시험 중 점성토층 비배수 전단강도를 산정할 때 적용되는 피에조콘 계수는 시험현장에 따라 피에조콘 계수 산정을 해야 한다. 경험적 해석방법의 경우에도 피에조콘 계수 산정을 위한 많은 방법들이 제안되어 왔으나, 대부분 국외에서 개발한 상관식이나 도표 등을 활용하여 국내 지반에 적용하므로, 이에 대한 적용성이 한계가 있다. 따라서 신뢰성 있는 피에조콘 계수를 산정하기 위해서는 대상지반의 특성을 비롯하여 비교대상 시험방법들의 연구가 필요하며, 국내지반에 대한 시험결과를 바탕으로 한 피에조콘 계수를 산정할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 낙동강 하구에 분포하는 연약점성토 특성을 파악하기 위해서 시추조사를 비롯한 현장시험 및 실내시험을 수행하였으며, 이 결과들을 피에조콘 관입시험과 비교 분석하였다. 또한, 각 시험별 비배수 전단강도 특성을 분석하고, 피에조콘 관입저항치와 비교하여 피에조콘 계수를 구하고, 구한 피에조콘 계수를 통계적 기법을 적용하여 연구 대상 지역의 신뢰성 높은 피에조콘 계수를 산정하였다.

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