• Title/Summary/Keyword: Cost of Poor Quality

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Corporate Bond Rating Using Various Multiclass Support Vector Machines (다양한 다분류 SVM을 적용한 기업채권평가)

  • Ahn, Hyun-Chul;Kim, Kyoung-Jae
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.157-178
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    • 2009
  • Corporate credit rating is a very important factor in the market for corporate debt. Information concerning corporate operations is often disseminated to market participants through the changes in credit ratings that are published by professional rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's (S&P) and Moody's Investor Service. Since these agencies generally require a large fee for the service, and the periodically provided ratings sometimes do not reflect the default risk of the company at the time, it may be advantageous for bond-market participants to be able to classify credit ratings before the agencies actually publish them. As a result, it is very important for companies (especially, financial companies) to develop a proper model of credit rating. From a technical perspective, the credit rating constitutes a typical, multiclass, classification problem because rating agencies generally have ten or more categories of ratings. For example, S&P's ratings range from AAA for the highest-quality bonds to D for the lowest-quality bonds. The professional rating agencies emphasize the importance of analysts' subjective judgments in the determination of credit ratings. However, in practice, a mathematical model that uses the financial variables of companies plays an important role in determining credit ratings, since it is convenient to apply and cost efficient. These financial variables include the ratios that represent a company's leverage status, liquidity status, and profitability status. Several statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been applied as tools for predicting credit ratings. Among them, artificial neural networks are most prevalent in the area of finance because of their broad applicability to many business problems and their preeminent ability to adapt. However, artificial neural networks also have many defects, including the difficulty in determining the values of the control parameters and the number of processing elements in the layer as well as the risk of over-fitting. Of late, because of their robustness and high accuracy, support vector machines (SVMs) have become popular as a solution for problems with generating accurate prediction. An SVM's solution may be globally optimal because SVMs seek to minimize structural risk. On the other hand, artificial neural network models may tend to find locally optimal solutions because they seek to minimize empirical risk. In addition, no parameters need to be tuned in SVMs, barring the upper bound for non-separable cases in linear SVMs. Since SVMs were originally devised for binary classification, however they are not intrinsically geared for multiclass classifications as in credit ratings. Thus, researchers have tried to extend the original SVM to multiclass classification. Hitherto, a variety of techniques to extend standard SVMs to multiclass SVMs (MSVMs) has been proposed in the literature Only a few types of MSVM are, however, tested using prior studies that apply MSVMs to credit ratings studies. In this study, we examined six different techniques of MSVMs: (1) One-Against-One, (2) One-Against-AIL (3) DAGSVM, (4) ECOC, (5) Method of Weston and Watkins, and (6) Method of Crammer and Singer. In addition, we examined the prediction accuracy of some modified version of conventional MSVM techniques. To find the most appropriate technique of MSVMs for corporate bond rating, we applied all the techniques of MSVMs to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. The best application is in corporate bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. For our study the research data were collected from National Information and Credit Evaluation, Inc., a major bond-rating company in Korea. The data set is comprised of the bond-ratings for the year 2002 and various financial variables for 1,295 companies from the manufacturing industry in Korea. We compared the results of these techniques with one another, and with those of traditional methods for credit ratings, such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), multinomial logistic regression (MLOGIT), and artificial neural networks (ANNs). As a result, we found that DAGSVM with an ordered list was the best approach for the prediction of bond rating. In addition, we found that the modified version of ECOC approach can yield higher prediction accuracy for the cases showing clear patterns.

The Legal nature of a contract for supply of a special purpose aircraft -The legitimacy of contract cancellation on the grounds that the performance specification is not satisfied in the purchase specification- (특수 항공기 공급계약의 법적 성질 - 구매규격서상 성능요건 미달을 이유로 한 계약해제의 정당성 -)

  • Kwon, Chang-Young
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.37-72
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    • 2016
  • In the aerospace field, besides special purpose airplanes, contracts for supply of various types of products such as prototypes, unmanned aerial vehicles and space launch vehicles are increasing. In the case of the contractor, it was planned to spend a large amount of money to supply the production, but if the purchase specification that presents the quality and performance standard of the product is poor or lacks the capacity to judge the performance, consuming enormous amounts of time and money. Even if the undertaker does not have the ability to supply the products with the required performance and quality to achieve the purpose of the contract, he/she must pay the cost of burial due to the incompleteness of the work and the compensation for the cancellation of the contract. In this case, the defendant ordered the plaintiff to supply the aircraft by the Happy Box method, which is capable of ILS Offset flight as specified in the Purchase Specification, but the plaintiff attempted to supply the aircraft by the RNAV method. Although the ILS ground signal can be inspected by the RNAV method, the aircraft manufactured in the manner claimed by the plaintiff does not have the ILS Offset flight function required by the purchase specification, so the defendant can not achieve the purpose required by the purchase specification. It was a question of whether a defendant's cancellation of contract was legitimate. The aircraft, which is the object of this contract, is a subordinate substitute, so the case contract is of undertaking. Therefore, in order to complete the work in this contract, the major structural parts of the aircraft must be manufactured as agreed and have the performance generally required in the social sense. However, the aircraft delivered by the plaintiff has serious defects because the defendant can not achieve the purpose required by the purchase specification due to the lack of the ILS Offset flight function required by the purchase specification. This deficiency is impossible for the plaintiff to repair, so the defendant 's cancellation of the contract is legitimate.

Effect of Planting Time and Pinching Method on the Growth and Quality of Cut Flowers in Chrysanthemum 'Jinba' (절화국화 '진바'의 정식시기와 적심방법이 생육과 절화품질에 미치는 영향)

  • Cho, Myeong-Whan;Kang, Nam-Jun;Rhee, Han-Cheol;Kwon, Joon-Kook;Choi, Gyeong-Lee;Kim, Tae-Yun;Hong, Jung-Hee
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.31-35
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    • 2010
  • In this experiment, the effects on the growth and the quality of cut flowers of chrysanthemum 'Jinba' were mainly concerned depending on cultural methods between the pinching and the non-pinching. According to the results, the sufficient period of the vegetative growth was necessary to enter the flower bud differentiation in case of the non-pinching cultivation whereas it was not the case on the pinching. As compared with the pinching, the non-pinching showed 10% higher in the flowering ratio after flower bud differentiation. The flowering ratio of the non-pinching exceeded more than 95% but the pinching showed below 95% of the flowering ratio after flower bud differentiation. Comparing the number of cutting flowers between pinching and non-pinching, it was the non-pinching that showed the production of the first grade cutting flowers about 5 weeks faster than that of the pinching. It seem to be possible that harvesting time and growing period could be shortened. In the non-pinching growing region, above third-grading marketable cut flowers was 100% regardless of planting time. On the contrary, the pinching method showed 84.7% of marketable cutting flowers at first week from the planting, followed by 64.3% at second week, 18.8% at third week, and 2.6% at fourth week. Marketability of cutting flowers indicates that were planted by the pinching is very poor. When draw a comparison between the fourth-week planting of the non-pinching with the first-week planting of the pinching, the non-pinching could cut the growing period 38 days shorter than the pinching and the marketability was better. These results indicate that the non-pinching method can shorten the growing period and harvesting time compared to the pinching and it also resulted in reduction of cost and rapid production of the cutting flowers.