• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
• /
• 2008.11b
• /
• pp.17-22
• /
• 2008

Construction project have extremely high risk in the process of construction owing to unexpected event, like as design amendment. As a result, owner have to endure enormous extra-cost to control the risk and continue to the project having more higher uncertainty. Also, if the structure is completed, it is needed that the structure is protected and maintained continuously during life cycle time to satisfying original aim of structure itself. LCC analysis to calculate cost of structure alternatives divides into two stage, one is design_LCC and the other is maintenace_LCC. But two stages all is needed in the transition deterioration model to calculate more reasonable LCC analysis. This paper developed the model using analysis of FMS contents and survey from professional about Prestressed concrete beam girder bridge(PC Beam bridge)in railway. The model is focused in project level of PC beam because any condition state information for element level analysis can not get up. This paper is intended to use the developed model in LCC analysis of PC Beam bridge in railway and constitute the foundation to perform more deep study in the near future.

• The Journal of Information Systems
• /
• v.13 no.1
• /
• pp.1-20
• /
• 2004

Most of the software development projects bear risks that need analysis and management. Risk management plays a critical role for the success of software project management. In this study, we have used delphi method to delineate critical risk factors. The study pulls out 20 project risk factors from 21 project managers. It is certainly clear that certain features are more risky than others. Our study shows that unrealistic cost estimation and changes in scope and objective are more risky than other features.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
• /
• v.17 no.3
• /
• pp.243-248
• /
• 2015

Domestic road and railroad construction have been increasingly growing and for reasons of mitigating traffic congestion, urban plan and refurbishment project, deeper and longer tunnels have been built. The event of fire is the most fatal accident in a tunnel, and it can be very disastrous with a high possibility. In this study, QRA (Quantitative Risk Analysis) which is one of quantitative risk analysis approaches was applied to tunnel fire safety design and the evaluation of QRA cases and the cost comparison of QRA methods were carried out. In addition analysis of risk reduction effect of tunnel fire safety system was conducted using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and the priority of major factors that could mitigate the risk in tunnel fire was presented. As a result, significant cost reduction effect could be obtained by incorporating QRA and it is expected to design fire safety system rationally. The priority of fire safety system based on risk mitigation effect by fire safety system considering the cost is in order of water pipe, emergency lighting, evacuation passage and smoke control system.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.5 no.2
• /
• pp.105-118
• /
• 2018

Generic medicine (GM), which is an alternative drug product for branded medicine (BM), is used less in Japan than in other OECD countries. Therefore, we investigate why the medical consumers of Japan avoid the use of GMs even though the efficacy and safety of the medicines have already been proven. We theorize that effectiveness or risk of GMs are related to the consumer attitude toward GMs is affected by the behavioral approach/activation system (BAS) which promotes actions to reach the desired state, and the behavioral inhibition system (BIS) which suppresses behaviors to avoid negative outcomes. To see which of the BAS and BIS dimensions are related to GM usage, we surveyed 374 Japanese consumers and found that Quality, Efficacy, Safety, & Cost-effectiveness with the BAS, and Functional Risk, Financial Risk, Social Risk, Physical Risk, Psychological Risk, & Time Risk with the BIS had a significant effect on consumer attitude to GMs. These results are important in that they 1), confirm the role of BAS/BIS in attitudes to GMs, 2), provide guidelines when marketing GMs, 3), help governments promote the use of GMs as a cost-saving measure, and 4), guide future surveys regarding consumer attitudes to GMs.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
• /
• v.11 no.1
• /
• pp.11-17
• /
• 2012

Along with the recent trend toward increasing variety and shorter life of products in the market, evaluation of risk for economic investment alternatives is of practical importance in manufacturing companies. This paper assumes that each alternative is composed of demand volume and unit sales price as income factors, and unit variable cost and fixed cost as expense factors. The paper assumes that these four factors move worse from the originally expected values, toward the direction of decreasing profit. Values of these four factors are also assumed to fluctuate from year to year over the entire multi-period. By applying the analysis of the breakeven points to each of the four factors, safer area against these changes is represented on the two dimensional domain called normalized total-cost unit-cost domain. A practical numerical example is analyzed to verify the validity of the proposed method.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
• /
• v.5 no.3
• /
• pp.241-250
• /
• 2003

Rock mass is very inhomogeneous in nature and data obtained by site investigations and tests are very limited. For this reason, many uncertainties are to be included in the process of constructing structures in rock mass. In the design of a tunnel, support pattern, advance rate, and excavation method, which are important design parameters, must be determined to be optimal. However, it is not easy to determine those parameters. Moreover if those parameters are determined incorrectly, unexpected risk occurs such as decrease in the stability of a tunnel or economic loss due to the excessive supports etc. In this study, how to determine an optimal support pattern and advance rate, which are the important tunnel design parameters, is introduced based on a risk analysis. It can be confirmed quantitatively that the more supported a tunnel is, the larger reliability index becomes and the more stable the tunnel becomes. Also an optimal support pattern and advance rate can be determined quantitatively by performing a risk analysis considering construction cost and the cost of loss which can be occurred due to the collapse of a tunnel.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.9 no.1
• /
• pp.143-154
• /
• 2008

Since the concerns for safety of highway traffic safety facilities inherent in various environmental risk is increased, systematic performance, cost, and effect analysis process is needed for this. In case of median barrier among various traffic safety facilities, quantitative risk assessment is inevitable because it has lots of direct/indirect risk factors. Thus, this study suggests an advanced VE(Value Engineering) approach incorporating quantitative risk analysis. For the applicability, suggested VE approach considering alternative 1(140cm) and 2(127cm) is applied to median barrier in fields. Also, major improvement objects are extracted from governing factors of cost and performance based on functional analysis. It is concluded that the proposed risk assessment methodology will provide rational and practical solutions for best value and the approach could effectively applied for various traffic safety facilities by slight modification of suggest process.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
• /
• v.10 no.1
• /
• pp.1-15
• /
• 2008

Recently, because of the various factors by uncertainty of underground, the risks in tunnelling have been occurred increasingly. Therefore, it is very important to estimate and control the risks considering geotechnical conditions for tunnel stability and environmental problems by tunnel construction. In this study, the risk analysis for tunnel stability was carried out by classifying the risk factors such as ground support capacity, ground settlement, the inflow of groundwater into the tunnel and the damage by the earthquake. Also, the risk assessment for the environmental problems was performed by calculating the vibration and noise by blasting and the drawdown of the groundwater level caused by tunnel construction. Each risk factor was evaluated quantitatively based on the probabilistic and statistic technique, then it was analyzed the distribution characteristic along overall tunnel site. Finally, it was evaluated that how much each risk factor influences on the construction cost with a period for tunnel construction, so it is possible to perform reasonable tunnel design which was capable of minimizing the risks in the tunnel construction.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
• /
• v.20 no.1
• /
• pp.1-9
• /
• 2018

As the chemical industry becomes more advanced, the awareness of chemical accidents is rising, and legal systems for chemical safety management are strengthened. In this study, quantitative risk assessment of liquid chlorine leak was conducted. Risk assessment was performed in the order of frequency analysis, consequence analysis, and risk calculation. The individual risk was presented in the form of contour lines. The social risk was expressed by the FN curve. The risk of day and night was in an unacceptable area, so it was required to mitigate risk. Therefore in-building, which could trap the pool, was selected as a risk mitigation measure. As a result of the cost benefit analysis, it was concluded that this measure should be reasonably implemented.

• Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
• /
• v.24 no.3
• /
• pp.369-383
• /
• 2016

Crop yield insurance program in Korea has rapidly grown not only in quantity but in quality for 15 years since it was introduced in 2001. Despite growth of Crop insurance, performance evaluation for crop yield insurance has not fully been evaluated at the farm, consumer and national level. The purpose of this study is to conduct the performance evaluation for crop yield insurance through estimating the effects of farm revenue stabilization and social welfare increase with three popular insurance items: apple, pear and sweet persimmon. Based on the analysis of social welfare effect, cost-benefit analysis of operating crop yield insurance was conducted at the national level. We found that crop yield insurance stabilizes farm revenue based on the estimated four risk indicators: Coefficient of Variation, Value at Risk, Certainty Equivalence, and Risk Premium. The result of cost-benefit analysis shows that crop yield insurance increases social net benefit by 44.1 billion won for the three items. As a result, crop yield insurance program has contributed remarkably on social welfare as well as farm management and its role will be more important in the future.