• 천문학회보
• /
• 제38권1호
• /
• pp.61.1-61.1
• /
• 2013

In this study we apply Support Vector Machine (SVM) to the prediction of geo-effective halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The SVM, which is one of machine learning algorithms, is used for the purpose of classification and regression analysis. We use halo and partial halo CMEs from January 1996 to April 2010 in the SOHO/LASCO CME Catalog for training and prediction. And we also use their associated X-ray flare classes to identify front-side halo CMEs (stronger than B1 class), and the Dst index to determine geo-effective halo CMEs (stronger than -50 nT). The combinations of the speed and the angular width of CMEs, and their associated X-ray classes are used for input features of the SVM. We make an attempt to find the best model by using cross-validation which is processed by changing kernel functions of the SVM and their parameters. As a result we obtain statistical parameters for the best model by using the speed of CME and its associated X-ray flare class as input features of the SVM: Accuracy=0.66, PODy=0.76, PODn=0.49, FAR=0.72, Bias=1.06, CSI=0.59, TSS=0.25. The performance of the statistical parameters by applying the SVM is much better than those from the simple classifications based on constant classifiers.

• 천문학회보
• /
• 제41권1호
• /
• pp.47.1-47.1
• /
• 2016

The determination of three dimensional parameters (e.g., radial speed, angular width, source location) of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is very important for space weather forecast. To estimate these parameters, several cone models based on a flat cone or a shallow ice-cream cone with spherical front have been suggested. In this study, we investigate which cone model is proper for halo CME morphology using 26 CMEs which are identified as halo CMEs by one spacecraft (SOHO or STEREO-A or B) and as limb CMEs by the other ones. From geometrical parameters of these CMEs such as their front curvature, we find that near full ice-cream cone CMEs are dominant over shallow ice-cream cone CMEs. Thus we develop a new full ice-cream cone model by assuming that a full ice-cream cone consists of many flat cones with different heights and angular widths. This model is carried out by the following steps: (1) construct a cone for given height and angular width, (2) project the cone onto the sky plane, (3) select points comprising the outer boundary, (4) minimize the difference between the estimated projection speeds with the observed ones. We apply this model to 12 SOHO halo CMEs and compare the results with those from other stereoscopic methods (a geometrical triangulation method and a Graduated Cylindrical Shell model) based on multi-spacecraft data.

• 천문학회보
• /
• 제37권2호
• /
• pp.110.1-110.1
• /
• 2012

We studied the source regions of 12 solar energetic particle (SEP) events seen between 2010 August and 2012 January at STEREO-A, B and ACE, when the two STEREO spacecraft were separated by about $180^{\circ}$. All events were associated with strong flares (C1 - X6) and fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) accompanied by type II radio bursts. We have determined the arrival times of the SEP events at the three spacecraft. EUV waves observed in $195{\AA}$ and $193{\AA}$ channels of STEREO and SDO/AIA are tracked across the Sun and the arrival time of the EUV wave at the photospheric source of open field lines extending to the spacecraft connection points at 2.5 Rsun estimated. We found 7 events with flux enhancements in all spacecraft and 4 in two spacecraft. Most events came from a single source. The results show that magnetic field connections between source regions and the spacecraft play an important role in abrupt flux enhancements. In the most cases, EUV waves at the Sun are associated with a wide longitudinal spread of the SEPs.

• 천문학회보
• /
• 제36권1호
• /
• pp.36.1-36.1
• /
• 2011

It is generally believed that eruptive phenomena in the solar atmosphere such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occur in the solar active regions with complex magnetic structures. Magnetic helicity has been recognized as a useful parameter to measure the complexity such as twists, kinks, and inter-linkages of magnetic field lines. The objective of this study is to understand a long-term (a few days) variation of magnetic helicity in active regions and its relationship with the energy buildup and instability leading to flares and CMEs. Statistical studies of flare productivity and magnetic helicity injection in about 400 active regions were carried out. The temporal variation of magnetic helicity injected through the photosphere of active regions was also examined related to 46 CMEs. The main findings in this study are as follows: (1) the study of magnetic helicity for active regions producing major flares and CMEs indicates that there is always a significant helicity injection through the active-region photosphere over a long period of 0.5 - a few days before the flares and CMEs; (2) for the 30 CMEs under investigation, it is found that there is a fairly good correlation (linear correlation coefficient of 0.71) between the average helicity injection in the CME-productive active regions and the CME speed. Beside the scientific contribution, a major impact of this study is the observational discovery of a characteristic variation pattern of magnetic helicity injection in flare/CME-productive active regions which can be used for the improvement of solar eruption forecasting.

• 천문학회보
• /
• 제44권1호
• /
• pp.50.2-50.2
• /
• 2019

Understanding three-dimensional structure and parameters (e.g., radial velocity, angular width, source location and density) of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is essential for space weather forecast. In this study, we determine CME mean density in solar corona and near the Earth. We select 38 halo CMEs, which have the corresponding interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), by SOHO/LASCO from 2000 to 2014. To estimate a CME volume, we assume that a CME structure is a full ice-cream cone which is a symmetrical circular cone combined with a hemisphere. We derive CME mean density as a function of radial height, which are approximately fitted to power-law functions. The average of power-law indexes is about 2.1 in the LASCO C3 field of view. We also obtain power-law functions for both CME mean density at 21 solar radii and ICME mean density at 1AU, with the average power-law index of 2.6. We estimate a ratio of CME density to background density based on the Leblanc et al.(1998) at 21 solar radii. Interestingly, the average of the ratios is 4.0, which is the same as a default value used in the WSA-ENLIL model.

• 천문학회보
• /
• 제42권2호
• /
• pp.62.3-63
• /
• 2017

The Mars Atmosphere and Volatile (MAVEN) mission has been providing valuable information on the atmospheric loss of Mars since its launch in November 2013. The Neutral Gass and Ion Mass Spectrometer (NGIMS) onboard MAVEN, was developed to analyze the composition of the Martian upper atmospheric neutrals and ions depending on various space weather conditions. We investigate a variation of upper atmospheric ion densities depending on the interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). It is known that the Mars has a very weak global magnetic field, so upper atmosphere of Mars has been strongly affected by the solar activities. Meanwhile, a strong crustal magnetic field exists on local surfaces, so they also have a compensating effect on the upper atmospheric loss outside the Mars. The weak crustal field has an influence up to 200km altitude, but on a strong field region, especially east longitude of $180^{\circ}$ and latitude of $-50^{\circ}$, they have an influence over 1,400km altitude. In this paper, we investigated which is more dominant between the crustal field effect and the ICME effect to the atmospheric loss. At 400km altitude, the ion density over the strong crustal field region did not show a significant variation despite of ICME event. However, over the other areas, the variation associated with ICME event is far more overwhelming.

• 천문학회지
• /
• 제50권2호
• /
• pp.29-39
• /
• 2017

We investigate two abnormal CME-Storm pairs that occurred on 2014 September 10 - 12 and 2015 March 15 - 17, respectively. The first one was a moderate geomagnetic storm ($Dst_{min}{\sim}-75nT$) driven by the X1.6 high speed flare-associated CME ($1267km\;s^{-1}$) in AR 12158 (N14E02) near solar disk center. The other was a very intense geomagnetic storm ($Dst_{min}{\sim}-223nT$) caused by a CME with moderate speed ($719km\;s^{-1}$) and associated with a filament eruption accompanied by a weak flare (C9.1) in AR 12297 (S17W38). Both CMEs have large direction parameters facing the Earth and southward magnetic field orientation in their solar source region. In this study, we inspect the structure of Interplanetary Flux Ropes (IFRs) at the Earth estimated by using the torus fitting technique assuming self-similar expansion. As results, we find that the moderate storm on 2014 September 12 was caused by small-scale southward magnetic fields in the sheath region ahead of the IFR. The Earth traversed the portion of the IFR where only the northward fields are observed. Meanwhile, in case of the 2015 March 17 storm, our IFR analysis revealed that the Earth passed the very portion where only the southward magnetic fields are observed throughout the passage. The resultant southward magnetic field with long-duration is the main cause of the intense storm. We suggest that 3D magnetic field geometry of an IFR at the IFR-Earth encounter is important and the strength of a geomagnetic storm is strongly affected by the relative location of the Earth with respect to the IFR structure.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
• /
• 제21권4호
• /
• pp.315-328
• /
• 2004

본 연구에서는 2003년 10월과 11월에 발생한 강력한 태양활동과 우주환경의 변화에 대한 국내외 관측결과를 분석하였다. 이러한 태양활동은 거대한 흑점군, X급 이상의 강력한 플레어, 연이은 코로나물질 방출(Coronal Mass Ejections: CMEs) 및 프로톤 현상 등으로 특징지어 질 수 있다. 특히 이때 발생한 고속의 CME들은 지구 방향으로 진행하여 매우 강력한 지자기 폭풍을 일으켰다. 미국 해양대기청 우주환경예보센터에서 제시한 우주환경기준(Space Weather Scales)에 따라 국내외 관측 자료를 분석하고 위성 및 통신에 미치는 영향을 예측하였다. 또한 같은 기간동안 우리나라에서 관측된 전리층 총전자함유량(Total Electron Contents: TEC), 오로라, 전리층의 F2 임계주파수, 그리고 아리랑 위성 1호의 궤도자료를 분석함으로서 우주환경변화가 우리나라 상층대기, 위성궤도, 무선통신 등에 미치는 영향을 조사하였다.

• 천문학회지
• /
• 제42권1호
• /
• pp.1-7
• /
• 2009

The e-CALLISTO is a global network of frequency-agile solar radio spectrometers that was constructed in a collaboration between Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH Zurich) and local host institutes. It is intended to monitor solar radio bursts 24 hours a day in frequency range between 45 MHz and 870 MHz. One of e-CALLISTO spectrometer was installed at Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) in 2007 October. The spectrometer gets signals from a horizontally polarized log-periodic antenna mounted on an automatic Sun-tracking system. Tracking status and data are monitored in Space Weather Monitoring Laboratory (SWML) of KASI in real time, and flare time data are transferred to ETH Zurich data archive daily. Using this spectrometer we obtained a couple of type II solar radio bursts on 2007 December 31, and found that these bursts are associated with a CME which occurred on the east limb.

• 천문학회보
• /
• 제37권1호
• /
• pp.95.2-95.2
• /
• 2012

We have compared the geoeffective parameters of halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to predict geomagnetic storms. For this we consider 50 front-side full halo CMEs whose asymmetric cone model parameters and earthward direction parameter were available. For each CME we use its projected velocity (Vp), radial velocity (Vr), angle between cone axis and sky plane (${\gamma}$) from the cone model, earthward direction parameter (D), source longitude (L), and magnetic field orientation (M) of the CME source region. We make a simple and multiple linear regression analysis to find out the relationship between CME parameters and Dst index. Major results are as follows. (1) $Vr{\times}{\gamma}$ has a higher correlation coefficient (cc = 0.70) with the Dst index than the others. When we make a multiple regression of Dst and two parameters ($Vr{\times}{\gamma}$, D), the correlation coefficient increases from 0.70 to 0.77. (2) Correlation coefficients between Dst index and $Vr{\times}{\gamma}$ have different values depending on M and L. (3) Super geomagnetic storms (Dst ${\leq}$ -200 nT) only appear in the western and southward events. Our results demonstrate that not only the cone model parameters together with the earthward direction parameter improve the relationship between CME parameters and Dst index but also the source longitude and its magnetic field orientation play a significant role in predicting geomagnetic storms.