• Title/Summary/Keyword: Control decision making

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Comparative Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis Response Capacities by Countries (코로나19 팬데믹 위기 대응 역량의 국가별 비교분석)

  • Yoon Hyeon Lee
    • The Journal of Korean Society for School & Community Health Education
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.59-70
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    • 2024
  • Objectives: The purpose of this study is to analyze each country's infectious disease response capacities and, based on this, find areas for improvement in Korea's infectious disease management response. Methods: First, the capacity to respond to the COVID-19 infectious disease was analyzed by country using the SPAR scores of 96 countries around the world released by WHO in 2022. Second, we analyzed each country's specific COVID-19 quarantine performance using Our World in Data and the Global Health Security Index (GHSI). Results: First, the quarantine intensity index on January 24, 2021 was the highest in the Southeast Asia branch at 67.6, which had strong quarantine measures, and the lowest at 44.5 in the Africa branch. As of December 31, 2022, the quarantine intensity index in Europe was significantly lowered to 11.6. Second, the factor that influenced the SPAR indicator on the total number of patients per million population was national laboratory (C4), p=.027, and the factor that influenced the total number of deaths per million population was infection prevention and control (C9), p=.005., Risk Communication and Community Participation (C10) p=.040. The influential factor on GDP per capita was infection prevention and control (C9) p=.009, and the influential factor on GHSI was infection prevention and control (C9) p=.002. Conclusion: The research findings indicate that it was difficult to find a correlation between the SPAR, which is each country's self-assessment of their infectious disease capacities, and the number of COVID-19 cases or the intensity of pandemic responses. However, mortality rates, as well as factors such as the Global Health Security Index (GHSI) and national income, appear to be somewhat influenced. For future improvements in infectious disease management and response in our country, it is necessary to develop pandemic strategies that can reduce socio-economic costs based on more scientific and reliable data like JEE or GHSI, especially in preparation for potential unknown emerging infectious diseases. Based on this, proactive decision-making led by a control tower of experts and effective health communication are also required to respond to public health crises at a national level.

A Hybrid Forecasting Framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Artificial Neural Network (사례기반 추론기법과 인공신경망을 이용한 서비스 수요예측 프레임워크)

  • Hwang, Yousub
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.43-57
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    • 2012
  • To enhance the competitive advantage in a constantly changing business environment, an enterprise management must make the right decision in many business activities based on both internal and external information. Thus, providing accurate information plays a prominent role in management's decision making. Intuitively, historical data can provide a feasible estimate through the forecasting models. Therefore, if the service department can estimate the service quantity for the next period, the service department can then effectively control the inventory of service related resources such as human, parts, and other facilities. In addition, the production department can make load map for improving its product quality. Therefore, obtaining an accurate service forecast most likely appears to be critical to manufacturing companies. Numerous investigations addressing this problem have generally employed statistical methods, such as regression or autoregressive and moving average simulation. However, these methods are only efficient for data with are seasonal or cyclical. If the data are influenced by the special characteristics of product, they are not feasible. In our research, we propose a forecasting framework that predicts service demand of manufacturing organization by combining Case-based reasoning (CBR) and leveraging an unsupervised artificial neural network based clustering analysis (i.e., Self-Organizing Maps; SOM). We believe that this is one of the first attempts at applying unsupervised artificial neural network-based machine-learning techniques in the service forecasting domain. Our proposed approach has several appealing features : (1) We applied CBR and SOM in a new forecasting domain such as service demand forecasting. (2) We proposed our combined approach between CBR and SOM in order to overcome limitations of traditional statistical forecasting methods and We have developed a service forecasting tool based on the proposed approach using an unsupervised artificial neural network and Case-based reasoning. In this research, we conducted an empirical study on a real digital TV manufacturer (i.e., Company A). In addition, we have empirically evaluated the proposed approach and tool using real sales and service related data from digital TV manufacturer. In our empirical experiments, we intend to explore the performance of our proposed service forecasting framework when compared to the performances predicted by other two service forecasting methods; one is traditional CBR based forecasting model and the other is the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. We ran each service forecasting 144 times; each time, input data were randomly sampled for each service forecasting framework. To evaluate accuracy of forecasting results, we used Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as primary performance measure in our experiments. We conducted one-way ANOVA test with the 144 measurements of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches. For example, the F-ratio of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches is 67.25 and the p-value is 0.000. This means that the difference between the MAPE of the three different service forecasting approaches is significant at the level of 0.000. Since there is a significant difference among the different service forecasting approaches, we conducted Tukey's HSD post hoc test to determine exactly which means of MAPE are significantly different from which other ones. In terms of MAPE, Tukey's HSD post hoc test grouped the three different service forecasting approaches into three different subsets in the following order: our proposed approach > traditional CBR-based service forecasting approach > the existing forecasting approach used by Company A. Consequently, our empirical experiments show that our proposed approach outperformed the traditional CBR based forecasting model and the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides some research background information such as summary of CBR and SOM. Section 3 presents a hybrid service forecasting framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Self-Organizing Maps, while the empirical evaluation results are summarized in Section 4. Conclusion and future research directions are finally discussed in Section 5.

Cost-benefit Analysis of Installing Crime Preventive CCTV: Focused on Theft and Assault (범죄예방용 CCTV설치의 비용편익분석: 절도와 폭력범죄를 중심으로)

  • Yun, Woo-Suk;Lee, Chang-Hun;Shim, Hee-Sub
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.50
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    • pp.209-237
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    • 2017
  • Theories on 'opportunity for crime' have utilized CCTV in crime prevention approach, and empirical studies showing crime prevention effects of CCTV have supported expansion of CCTV installation. Particularly, in Korea, the number of CCTV installation had tripled from 2011 to 2015, and governmental policies regarding CCTV have become one of the mainstream social control strategies. Although a couple of empirical studies showed decrease in crime rate due to CCTV installation, there is no study investigating B/C analysis(Benefit vs. cost analysis) of CCTV installation. B/C analysis results will be beneficial for official decision-making of criminal justice policy, and this study is purported to produce such fundamental evidence for policy making procedure. To fulfill this goal, this study collected data on financial information, crime data between 2011 and 2015 across the nation from 232 governmental district offices and the Korean National Police. This study then conducted two different B/C analyses(simple B/C analysis, regression-based B/C analysis). The simple B/C analysis results showed that 1) total costs for CCTV installation in 2014 was 68,626,000,000 won(approximately, US$57,188,333.00, money exchange rate 1200won=US$1), 2) benefits of crime reduction was 90,888,000,000 won(appx. US$75,740,000), and 3) B/C rate was 1.32. The regression-based B/C analysis results showed that 1) B/C rate was 1.52 when only reduced costs of criminal justice processes for crime employed, and 2) B/C rate was 3.62 when overall social costs including reduced costs of criminal justice processes and social benefits, e.g., reduction in costs for managing fear of crime, due to the crime reduction. Based on the results, this study provided policy implications.

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The Development and Effectiveness of a PBL Based Career Education Program (PBL 기반 진로교육 프로그램의 개발 및 효과검증)

  • Lee, Hye-Suk;Kim, You-Me
    • The Korean Journal of Elementary Counseling
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.33-50
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study was to develop a PBL-based career education program and to examine its effectiveness on school children's career maturity. It's specifically meant to prepare a career education program to assist students to get an accurate grip on their aptitude, interest and personality and explore various sorts of occupations in the course of solving authentic and contextual career-related problems. After children's developmental characteristics and needs were analyzed, task analysis was implemented, and the objectives were defined. And then the core of the program, PBL problems were developed, and the validity of the problems were verified Evaluation plans and tools were prepared to assess children's problem-solving process and presentation, and an online learning space was designed. The program that consisted of 10-minute 21 sessions was provided to fifth-grade elementary schoolers for eight weeks. The findings of the study were as follows: The experimental group that participated in the PBL-based career education program showed a more significant improvement than the control group that didn't in career attitude and three career attitude subfactors involving planness, disposition and compromise. And the former made a more significant progress than the latter in career ability and its subfactors including vocational comprehension, self-understanding and decision-making skills as well. As a result of making a content analysis to make up for the survey, the students reported that they were able to get an objective understanding of themselves and acquire diverse and profound knowledge on work and the business world in the middle of solving the given PBL problems related to different areas in group and giving a presentation. In conclusion, a PBL based career education program developed by this researcher encouraged the students to have an objective self-understanding, to have a dynamic interactive discussion with their group members. Therefore the program had a positive impact on boosting the career attitude and career ability of the elementary schoolers. The findings suggested that in the field of elementary career education, autonomous learning attitude and subjecthood are the crucial factors to stimulate school children to explore and create their own future.

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The Effect of Disgust on Legal Judgment: Disgust Induced by the Crime Scene vs. Sexual Minority Stereotypes (혐오 정서가 법적 판단에 미치는 영향: 범죄현장으로부터 유발된 혐오와 성 소수자 고정관념에서 비롯된 혐오)

  • Lee Yoonjung
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.537-567
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    • 2023
  • This study compared the nature of disgust caused by the crime scene with that by the stereotype of the sexual-minority defendant, and compared the effect of each type of disgust on evidence evaluation and legal judgment. A total of 600 participants (300 men, average age of 44.40) were randomly assigned to sources of disgust (crime scene, sexual minorities defendant, control condition), the existence of additional evidence of innocence (o/x), and the existence of judicial directives (o/x). As a result of the study, disgust under the condition of a cruel crime scene with strong physical disgust was significantly higher than that of the sexual minority defendant, interpreted the evidence in a more guilty direction, and was more prone to_evaluate that the defendant was guilty. It is noteworthy that evidence evaluation was a significant moderating variable between disgust and probability of guilt under conditions where the source of disgust was a sexual minority, but not under control conditions and crime scene condition. It means that the effect of disgust on legal judgment may not be direct when the defendant is a sexual minority. In addition, the existence of the judicial instruction had a significant inverse effect on the sentence. And simple effect analysis found that presenting judicial instruction lowered probability of guilt only under the control condition. This makes it reasonable to infer that disgust derived from the characteristics of the crime scene and the defendant can be recognized as integral emotions that are difficult to correct with instructions. Finally, pity for the defendant was significantly higher under the conditions of sexual minority which shows that an emotional response of sympathy may occur in addition to disgust for sexual minorities. After examining the nature of disgust (physical & moral), legal judgment according to the source and degree of disgust was reviewed. In addition, the meaning of disgust and sympathy for the sexual minority defendant was discussed.

Relationship between Radiation and Yield of Sweet Pepper Cultivars (광량과 파프리카 품종에 따른 수량과의 상호관계)

  • Myung, Dong Ju;Bae, Jong Hyang;Kang, Jong Goo;Lee, Jeong Hyun
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.243-246
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    • 2012
  • The study was aimed at the development of the simple linear regression model to estimate the fruit yield of sweet pepper and to support decision-making management for growing sweet pepper crop in Korea. For quantitative analysis of relationship between environmental data and periodical yield of sweet pepper the data obtained from the commercial Venlo-type glasshouse for 2 years. Obtained periodical yield data of five different cultivars and radiation data were accumulated and fitted by linear regression. A significant linear relationship was found between radiation integral and fruit yield, whereas the production per unit of radiation was different between cultivars. The slope of linear regression could indicate as light use efficiency for fruit production ($LUE_F$, $g{\cdot}MJ^{-1}$). $LUE_F$ of 'Ferrari' was $5.85g{\cdot}MJ^{-1}$, 'Fiesta' 5.32 for first year and $4.75g{\cdot}MJ^{-1}$ and for second year, 'President' was $4.66g{\cdot}MJ^{-1}$, 'Cupra' was $3.86g{\cdot}MJ^{-1}$, and 'Boogie' was $6.48g{\cdot}MJ^{-1}$. The amount of light requirement for the unit gram of fruit was between $25.88J{\cdot}g^{-1}$, for 'Cupra' and $15.42J{\cdot}g^{-1}$ for 'Boogie'. Although we found the linear relationship between radiation and fruit yield, $LUE_F$ was varied between cultivars and as well as year. The linear relationship could describe the fruit yield as function of radiation, but it needed more variable to generalization of the production, such as cultivar specifications, temperature, and number of fruits set per plant or unit of ground.

The Efficiency Analysis of CRM System in the Hotel Industry Using DEA (DEA를 이용한 호텔 관광 서비스 업계의 CRM 도입 효율성 분석)

  • Kim, Tai-Young;Seol, Kyung-Jin;Kwak, Young-Dai
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.91-110
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    • 2011
  • This paper analyzes the cases where the hotels have increased their services and enhanced their work process through IT solutions to cope with computerization globalization. Also the cases have been studies where national hotels use the CRM solution internally to respond effectively to customers requests, increase customer analysis, and build marketing strategies. In particular, this study discusses the introduction of the CRM solutions and CRM sales business and marketing services using a process for utilizing the presumed, CRM by introducing effective DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis). First, the comparison has done regarding the relative efficiency of L Company with the CCR model, then compared L Company's restaurants and facilities' effectiveness through BCC model. L Company reached a conclusion that it is important to precisely create and manage sales data which are the preliminary data for CRM, and for that reason it made it possible to save sales data generated by POS system on each sales performance database. In order to do that, it newly established Oracle POS system and LORIS POS system concerned with restaurants for food and beverage as well as rooms, and made it possible to stably generate and manage sales data and manage. Moreover, it set up a composite database to control comprehensively the results of work processes during a specific period by collecting customer registration information and made it possible to systematically control the information on sales performances. By establishing a system which unifies database and managing it comprehensively, impeccability of data has been greatly enhanced and a problem which generated asymmetric data could be thoroughly solved. Using data accumulated on the comprehensive database, sales data can be analyzed, categorized, classified through data mining engine imbedded in Polaris CRM and the results can be organized on data mart to provide them in the form of CRM application data. By transforming original sales data into forms which are easy to handle and saving them on data mart separately, it enabled acquiring well-organized data with ease when engaging in various marketing operations, holding a morning meeting and working on decision-making. By using summarized data at data mart, it was possible to process marketing operations such as telemarketing, direct mailing, internet marketing service and service product developments for perceived customers; moreover, information on customer perceptions which is one of CRM's end-products could feed back into the comprehensive database. This research was undertaken to find out how effectively CRM has been employed by comparing and analyzing the management performance of each enterprise site and store after introducing CRM to Hotel enterprises using DEA technique. According to the research results, efficiency evaluation for each site was calculated through input and output factors to find out comparative CRM system usage efficiency of L's Company four sites; moreover, with regard to stores, the sizes of workforce and budget application show a huge difference and so does the each store efficiency. Furthermore, by using the DEA technique, it could assess which sites have comparatively high efficiency and which don't by comparing and evaluating hotel enterprises IT project outcomes such as CRM introduction using the CCR model for each site of the related enterprises. By using the BCC model, it could comparatively evaluate the outcome of CRM usage at each store of A site, which is representative of L Company, and as a result, it could figure out which stores maintain high efficiency in using CRM and which don't. It analyzed the cases of CRM introduction at L Company, which is a hotel enterprise, and precisely evaluated them through DEA. L Company analyzed the customer analysis system by introducing CRM and achieved to provide customers identified through client analysis data with one to one tailored services. Moreover, it could come up with a plan to differentiate the service for customers who revisit by assessing customer discernment rate. As tasks to be solved in the future, it is required to do research on the process analysis which can lead to a specific outcome such as increased sales volumes by carrying on test marketing, target marketing using CRM. Furthermore, it is also necessary to do research on efficiency evaluation in accordance with linkages between other IT solutions such as ERP and CRM system.

Current Status and Future Prospect of Plant Disease Forecasting System in Korea (우리 나라 식물병 발생예찰의 현황과 전망)

  • Kim, Choong-Hoe
    • Research in Plant Disease
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.84-91
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    • 2002
  • Disease forecasting in Korea was first studied in the Department of Fundamental Research, in the Central Agricultural Technology Institute in Suwon in 1947, where the dispersal of air-borne conidia of blast and brown spot pathogens in rice was examined. Disease forecasting system in Korea is operated based on information obtained from 200 main forecasting plots scattered around country (rice 150, economic crops 50) and 1,403 supplementary observational plots (rice 1,050, others 353) maintained by Korean government. Total number of target crops and diseases in both forecasting plots amount to 30 crops and 104 diseases. Disease development in the forecasting plots is examined by two extension agents specialized in disease forecasting, working in the national Agricul-tural Technology Service Center(ATSC) founded in each city and prefecture. The data obtained by the extension agents are transferred to a central organization, Rural Development Administration (RDA) through an internet-web system for analysis in a nation-wide forecasting program, and forwarded far the Central Forecasting Council consisted of 12 members from administration, university, research institution, meteorology station, and mass media to discuss present situation of disease development and subsequent progress. The council issues a forecasting information message, as a result of analysis, that is announced in public via mass media to 245 agencies including ATSC, who informs to local administration, the related agencies and farmers for implementation of disease control activity. However, in future successful performance of plant disease forecasting system is thought to be securing of excellent extension agents specialized in disease forecasting, elevation of their forecasting ability through continuous trainings, and furnishing of prominent forecasting equipments. Researches in plant disease forecasting in Korea have been concentrated on rice blast, where much information is available, but are substan-tially limited in other diseases. Most of the forecasting researches failed to achieve the continuity of researches on specialized topic, ignoring steady improvement towards practical use. Since disease forecasting loses its value without practicality, more efforts are needed to improve the practicality of the forecasting method in both spatial and temporal aspects. Since significance of disease forecasting is directly related to economic profit, further fore-casting researches should be planned and propelled in relation to fungicide spray scheduling or decision-making of control activities.

The Outcome of the 6th ICAO Worldwide Air Transport Conference and Fair Competition Policy in International Air Transport (국제항공운송의 최근 동향과 항공운송의 공정경쟁정책 -ICAO 제6차 세계항공운송회의 결과를 중심으로-)

  • Shin, Dong-Chun
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.97-114
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    • 2013
  • The 6th Worldwide Air Transport Conference was held in Montreal in March 2013 under the auspices of ICAO. This conference, which has been held every ten years, is dealing with virtually every issue of international air transport, and aiming at updating ICAO policy in order to ensure long-term growth of international civil aviation. Last conference which took place in 2003 focused on the liberalization of air transport, and the 6th conference shifted its focus from whether to push for liberalization, to how to implement it. The main agenda items for the 6th conference was liberalization, safeguards, ownership, fair competition, airports and air navigation facilities, charges, and ICAO policy. The liberalization, and in particular progressive liberalization has been a main theme over the past decades. In the process leading to liberalization, there needs to be the expansion of market access, easing regulation on ownership and control of airlines. Furthermore, the provision of enough infrastructure such as airport and air navigation facilities may be contributing factor to remove impediments to liberalization. However, out of concern as for undermining interests of consumer and the weak, when liberalization is proceeding in a sudden and radical manner, there should be safeguards so as to ensure market participation by developing countries, consumer protection, and economical and transparent decision on taxes and charges. Fair competition which differs from promoting competition in the market, is a policy in order to protect the weak players and consumers from monopoly and oligopoly. The Korean delegation submitted 3 WPs (WP/85, 86 and 87) and 1 IP, and presented WPs, at the conference, which were a lot compared with previous occasions. A paradigm shift was emphasized to expedite the process of liberalization at the 6th conference. The reality is that with many previous recommendations to stress the importance of liberalization, and to urge States to change their attitudes, the pace of the liberalization has been very slow and staggering. The liberalization of air transport will contribute to the growth of air transport and related industry, to create new employment, promoting tourism and regional development, and further to facilitating mutual understanding and exchange, which will also lead to making a barrier-free world. In this context, it is expected that the next conference will also evaluate the on-going process of liberalization.

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Thermal Behavior and Leaf Temperature in a High Pressure Sodium Lamp Supplemented Greenhouse (고압나트륨등 보광 온실의 열적 거동 및 엽온 분석)

  • Seungri Yoon;Jin Hyun Kim;Minju Shin;Dongpil Kim;Ji Wong Bang;Ho Jeong Jeong;Tae In Ahn
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.48-56
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    • 2023
  • High-pressure sodium (HPS) lamps have been widely used as a useful supplemental light source to emit sufficient photosynthetically active radiation and provide a radiant heat, which contribute the heat requirement in greenhouses. The objective of this study to analyze the thermal characteristics of HPS lamp and thermal behavior in supplemented greenhouse, and evaluate the performance of a horizontal leaf temperature of sweet pepper plants using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. We simulated horizontal leaf temperature on upper canopy according to three growth stage scenarios, which represented 1.0, 1.6, and 2.2 plant height, respectively. We also measured vertical leaf and air temperature accompanied by heat generation of HPS lamps. There was large leaf to air temperature differential due to non-uniformity in temperature. In our numerical calculation, thermal energy of HPS lamps contributed of 50.1% the total heat requirement on Dec. 2022. The CFD model was validated by comparing measured and simulated data at the same operating condition. Mean absolute error and root mean square error were below 0.5, which means the CFD simulation values were highly accurate. Our result about vertical leaf and air temperature can be used in decision making for efficient thermal energy management and crop growth.