• 응용통계연구
• /
• 제12권2호
• /
• pp.387-387
• /
• 1999

The traditional holiday, Sol which is based on a lunar calendar, falls in January orFebruary and makes it difficult to analyze time series data accurately. To analyze whetherSol raises consumer prices or not, RegARIMA models and paired t tests are used. It isfound that Sol raises consumer prices of food products significantly, but So1's effects onconsumer prices of all items are not significant.

• 지적과 국토정보
• /
• 제50권1호
• /
• pp.125-141
• /
• 2020

본 연구는 서울시 5대 권역을 대상으로 주택소비심리와 주택매매가격 간 시계열적 인과관계를 파악하고 소비심리 변동이 권역별 주택가격에 미치는 영향을 그랜저인과(Granger Causality)모형과 VEC (Vector Error Correction)모형을 이용해 실증분석하였다. 주요 결과를 요약하면 첫째, 주택소비심리와 권역별 주택가격은 밀접한 관계가 있으며, 소비심리는 주택가격에 강하게 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 주택소비심리는 단기적으로 서울시 권역별 주택매매 가격에 차별적인 영향을 미치고 있었는데, 동남권 주택가격은 서울 주택소비심리 변화의 주요한 원인으로 작용하며 이에 따른 영향은 비동남권으로 전이되는 것을 확인하였다. 셋째, 동남권 이외 권역은 주택심리가 긍정적임에 따라 장기적으로 주택가격을 상승시키지만, 동남권은 보합세가 나타나는 것으로 분석되었다. 넷째, 권역별 상대적 기여도의 경우 대체로 아파트가격 변동은 인접권역 또는 경쟁권역의 영향을 가장 많이 받는 것으로 파악되었다. 이러한 결과를 통해 본 연구는 주택소비심리와 서울시 권역별 주택가격이 상호 간 명확한 인과관계가 있다는 점과 권역 간에도 차별적인 주택소비심리 영향이 나타나고 있다는 점을 확인하였다.

• 수산경영론집
• /
• 제52권4호
• /
• pp.13-28
• /
• 2021

The purpose of this study is to compare short-term price predictive power among ARMA ARMAX and VAR forecasting models based on the MDM test using monthly consumer price data of frozen mackerel. This study also aims to help policymakers and economic actors make reasonable choices in the market on monthly consumer price of frozen mackerel. To analyze this study, the frozen wholesale prices and new consumer prices were used as variables while the price time series data were used from December 2013 to July 2021. Through the unit root test, it was confirmed that the time series variables employed in the models were stable while the level variables were used for analysis. As a result of conducting information standards and Granger causality tests, it was found that the wholesale prices and fresh consumer prices from the previous month have affected the frozen consumer prices. Then, the model with the highest predictive power was selected by RMSE, RMSPE, MAE, MAPE, and Theil's inequality coefficient criteria where the predictive power was compared by the MDM test in order to examine which model is superior. As a result of the analysis, ARMAX(1,1) with the frozen wholesale, ARMAX(1,1) with the fresh consumer model and VAR model were selected. Through the five criteria and MDM tests, the VAR model was selected as the superior model in predicting the monthly consumer price of frozen mackerel.

• 자원환경지질
• /
• 제56권4호
• /
• pp.447-456
• /
• 2023

2000년 이후에도 유가상승은 과거에 비견될 수 있을 만큼 상승하였으나 경제성장, 소비 등 경제변수들에 미치는 영향은 상대적으로 안정적인 모습을 보였다. 이에 본 연구는 우리 경제에 구조변화가 있었던 1998년 외환위기 시점을 기준으로 유가에 대한 우리 경제의 반응이 변화하였음을 실증적으로 보이고자 한다. 실증분석을 통해 1998년을 기준으로 전후 기간에 대해 유가 및 생산자물가가 소비자물가에 미치는 영향이 변화하였음을 확인하였고, 이어 산업부문별 부가가치율에 생산자물가가 미치는 영향도 변화하였음을 확인하였다. 이는 생산비용 상승의 소비자 가격에 전가가 완화되었으며 부가가치에도 영향이 완화되었음을 의미한다. 실증분석 결과의 원인에 대해서는 생산자물가와 소비자물가 간의 관계변화 및 그 원인, 유가상승에 따른 산업부문의 요소투입 및 생산품 변화 등 다양한 접근의 연구가 수행되어야 할 것이다.

• 패션비즈니스
• /
• 제20권5호
• /
• pp.16-29
• /
• 2016

The study aims to explore the impacts of types of consumer's self-construal, prices of brands, and types of discount-based sales promotion on consumers' purchase intention. For this study, a three-way mixed factor method was applied based on a formula, types of consumer's self-construal x prices of brands x types of discount-based sales promotion. The subjects were 218 females in their 20s to 30s living in seoul or Gyeonggi-do areas. For data analysis, three-way variate analysis, analysis of simple interactions and analysis of simple main impacts were conducted through use of the SPSS program. First, based on the impacts of types of consumer's self-construal, prices of brands, and types of discount-based sales promotions in the favor of consumers, there was a significant difference between higher and lower-priced brands. Second, comprehensive discounts rather than monopolistic discounts corresponded to higher favoring by consumers of interdependent self-construal. As for monopolistic discount, lower-priced products corresponded to higher favor than higher-priced ones. Third, there was a significant difference between consumers of independent self-construal and interdependent self-construal. Fourth, comprehensive discount, rather than monopolistic discount, corresponded to higher purchase intention regardless of prices of brands in the group of consumers with interdependent self-construal.

• 유통과학연구
• /
• 제13권11호
• /
• pp.39-46
• /
• 2015

Purpose - In Korea, there has been a recent trend that shows housing prices have risen rapidly following the International Monetary Fund crisis. The rapid rise in housing prices is spreading recognition of this as a factor in housing price volatility. In addition, this raises the expectations of housing prices in the future. These expectations are based on the assumption that a relationship exists between the current housing prices and expected housing prices in the real estate industry. By performing an empirical analysis on the validity of the claim that an increase in current housing prices can be correlated with expected housing prices, this study examines whether a long-term equilibrium relationship exists between expected housing prices and existing housing prices. If such a relationship exists, the recovery of equilibrium from disequilibrium is analyzed to derive related implications. Research design, data, and methodology - The relationship between current housing prices and expected housing prices was analyzed empirically using the Vector Error Correction Model. This model was applied to the co-integration test, the long-term equilibrium equation among variables, and the causality test. The housing prices used in the analysis were based on the National Housing Price Trend Survey released by Kookmin Bank. Additionally, the Index of Industrial Product and the Consumer Price Index were also used and were obtained from the Bank of Korea ECOS. The monthly data analyzed were from January 1987 to May 2015. Results - First, a long-term equilibrium relationship was established as one co-integration between current housing price distribution and expected housing prices. Second, the sign of the long-term equilibrium relationship variable was consistent with the theoretical sign, with the elasticity of housing price distribution to expected housing price, the industrial production, and the consumer price volatility revealed as 1.600, 0.104,and 0.092, respectively. This implies that the long-term effect of expected housing price volatility on housing price distribution is more significant than that of the industrial production and consumer price volatility. Third, the sign of the coefficient of the error correction term coincided with the theoretical sign. The absolute value of the coefficient of the correction term in the industrial production equation was 0.006, significantly larger than the coefficients for the expected housing price and the consumer price equation. In case of divergence from the long-term equilibrium relationship, the state of equilibrium will be restored through changes in the interest rate. Fourth, housing-price volatility was found to be causal to expected housing price, and was shown to be bi-directionally causal to industrial production. Conclusions - Based on the finding of this study, it is required to relieve the association between current housing price distribution and expected housing price by using property taxes and the loan-to-value policy to stabilize the housing market. Further, the relationship between housing price distribution and expected housing price can be examined and tested using a sophisticated methodology and policy variables.

• 대한산업공학회지
• /
• 제40권6호
• /
• pp.609-617
• /
• 2014

Lately there are many approaches for decreasing the retail prices for mobile telecommunication in response to higher demand of the consumer welfare. Related on this perspective, there have been many disputes how the MTR (mobile termination rate)s from the whole market has influences on the consumer prices at the retail market. Therefore, we need a timely review about the possibility of the reduction of retail prices with MTR policies. The purpose of this paper is to study the relationship between MTR and retail prices. For this purpose, we can identify three kinds of arguments by reviewing the previous literatures. We empirically analyze the relationship with latest European data and Korean annual data. Furthermore, we also examine whether the relationship would depend on the competition structure. The results imply that decreasing MTR would result in reduction of the retail prices but the effect would be enhanced by improvement of market concentration.

• 아태비즈니스연구
• /
• 제11권2호
• /
• pp.159-172
• /
• 2020

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to investigate economic variables which have impact on the prices and returns of preferred stocks and to provide investors, underwriters, and policy makers with information regarding correlations and causal relations between them. Design/methodology/approach - This study collected 98 monthly data from Korea Exchange and Bank of Korea. The Granger causal relation analysis, unit-root test and the multiple regression analysis were hired in order to analyze the data. Findings - First, our study derives the economic variables affecting the prices and returns of preferred stocks and their implications, while previous studies focused mainly on the differential characteristics and related economic factors between common and preferred stocks. Empirical results show that the significant variables influencing the prices and returns of preffered stocks are consumer sentiment index, consumer price index, industrial production index, KOSPI volatility index, and exchange rate between Korean won and US dollar. Second, consumer sentiment index, consumer price index, and industrial production index have significant casual relations with the returns of preferred stocks, providing market participants with important information regarding investment in preferred stocks. Research implications or Originality - This study is different from previous studies in that preferred stocks themselves are investigated rather than the gap between common stocks and preferred stocks. In addition, we derive the major macro variables affecting the prices and returns of preferred stocks and find some useful causal relations between the macro variables and returns of preferred stocks. These findings give important implications to market participants, including stock investors, underwriters, and policy makers.

• Journal of Korea Trade
• /
• 제25권1호
• /
• pp.34-46
• /
• 2021

Purpose - This paper aims to analyze the impact of the terms of trade, export price, and import price on the Korean economy (that is, real GDP, CPI, money market rate, and real effective exchange rate), and vice versa in the simple vector autoregression. Design/methodology - We impose two assumptions, i.e., diagonality and bloc exogeneity, to correctly identify the impact of a factor to the others in the structural equation. With two contemporaneous assumptions in the structural VAR, this paper investigates the impacts of the terms of trade on the Korean economy and vice versa. Findings - Impulse responses to the shocks in the terms of trade and Korean economy show that 1) an impact of the terms of trade on the economy is different in export prices and in import prices. A higher export price is beneficial to the economy while a higher import price hurts the economy, and 2) an increase in real effective exchange rate and in interest rate constrains domestic production and lowers consumer prices. Originality/value - Unlike the conventional perception that a depreciation of a currency would promote exports and domestic production at the price of inflation, our result shows the opposite, and 3) real GDP and consumer prices are positively correlated. That is, an increase in real GDP does not only cause inflation, but an increase in consumer prices also promote domestic production. Yet, the only difference is that export prices and import prices end up higher with an increase in real GDP, but lower with inflation.

• 수산경영론집
• /
• 제46권1호
• /
• pp.93-107
• /
• 2015

This study aims to analyze causalities among Hairtail prices by distribution channel using a vector autoregressive model. This study applies unit-root test for stability of data, uses Granger causality test to know interaction among Hairtail Prices by distribution channel, and employes the vector autoregressive model to estimate statistical impacts among t-2 period variables used in model. Analyzing results of this study are as follows. First, ADF, PP, and KPSS tests show that the change rate of Hairtail price by distribution channel differentiated by logarithm is stable. Second, a Granger causality test presents that the producer price of Hairtail leads the wholesale price and then the wholesale price leads the consumer price. Third, the vector autoregressive model suggests that the change rate of Hairtail producer price of t-2 period variables statistically, significantly impacts change rates of own, wholesale, and consumer prices at current period. Fourth, the impulse response analysis indicates that impulse responses of the structural shocks with a respectively distribution channel of the Hairtail prices are relatively more powerful in own distribution channel than in other distribution channels. Fifth, a forecast error variance decomposition of the Hairtail prices points out that the own price has relatively more powerful influence than other prices.