• 제목/요약/키워드: Consequence-based

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석유화학공정에서 재정적 위험도에 의한 위험기반검사의 적용 (Application of Risk-Based Inspection with Financial Risk for a Petrochemical Process)

  • 김태옥;이중희;최성규;이헌창;조지훈
    • 한국가스학회지
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.53-60
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    • 2009
  • 냉각수, 수증기 등과 같은 유틸리티를 사용하는 설비에서는 장치손상지역에 의한 사고 피해크기(COF)가 0의 값을 나타내고, 이로 인해 위험도가 0으로 나타난다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 위험기반검사(RBI)에서 장치손상지역에 의한 COF로부터 위험도를 산출하는 방법을 개선하여 재정적 손실에 의한 COF로부터 위험도를 산출하는 RBI 절차를 개발하였다. 그리고 장치손상지역과 재정적 손실에 의한 위험도로부터 검사주기를 동시에 산정하는 RBI 프로그램(KS-RBI Ver 3.1)을 개발하여 석유화학공정에 적용하였다. 그 결과, 재정적 손실에 의한 COF로부터 산출한 위험도는 장치손상지역에 의한 COF로부터 산출한 위험도 결과와 거의 유사하였다. 그러나 유틸리티를 사용하거나 고가의 설비에서는 장치손상지역에 의한 경우보다 재정적 손실에 의한 COF로부터 설비의 위험도를 보다 정확하게 산출할 수 있었다.

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New Design of Choice Sets for Choice-based Conjoint Analysis

  • Kim, Bu-Yong
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제25권5호
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    • pp.847-857
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    • 2012
  • This article is concerned with choice-based conjoint analysis versus rating-based and ranking-based conjoint analysis. Choice-based conjoint analysis has a definite advantage in that the respondent's task of choosing the most preferred profile from several competing profiles adequately mimics consumer marketplace behavior. It is crucial to design the choice sets appropriate for the choice-based conjoint. Thus, this article suggests a new method to design the choice sets that are well-balanced. It augments the balanced incomplete block design and then obtains the dual design of the result to accommodate various numbers of profiles. In consequence, the choice sets designed by the new method have the desirable characteristics that each profile is presented to the same number of respondents, and pairs of any two distinct profiles occur together in the same number of choice sets. The balancing of the design increases the efficiency of the conjoint analysis. In addition, the pair-comparison scheme can improve the quality of data through the identification of contradictory responses.

나프타분해플랜트의 부탄추출공정에서 부탄증기의 연속누출에 의한 증기운 폭발사고의 영향평가 (The Consequence Analysis for Unconfined Vapor Cloud Explosion Accident by the Continuous Release of Butane Vapor in the Debutanizing Process of Naphtha Cracking Plant)

  • 손민일;이헌창;장서일;김태옥
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제2권4호
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    • pp.33-43
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    • 2000
  • The consequence analysis for the unconfined vapor cloud explosion(UVCE) accident by the continuous release of butane vapor was performed and effects of process parameters on consequences were analyzed in standard conditions. For the case of continuous release(87.8 kg/s) of butane vapor at 8 m elevated height in the debutanizing process of tile naphtha cracking plant operating at 877 kPa & 346.75 K, we found that combustion ranges of dispersed vapor estimated by HMP model were 11.2~120.2 m and overpressures estimated by TNT equivalency model at 200 m were about 37.35~55.1 kPa. Also, overpressures estimated by Model UVCE I based on advective travel time to $X_{LFL}$ were smaller than those estimated by Model UVCE IIbased on real travel time between $X_{UFL}$ and $X_{LFL}$. At the same time, damage intensities at 200 m and effect ranges by overpressure could be predicted. Furthermore, simulation results showed that effects of operating pressures on consequences were larger than those of operating temperatures and results of accidents were increased with increasing operating pressures. At this time, sensitivities of overpressures for UVCE accident by the continuous release were about 5 kPa/atm.

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Prediction of the load-displacement response of ground anchors via the load-transfer method

  • Chalmovsky, Juraj;Mica, Lumir
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제20권4호
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    • pp.359-370
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    • 2020
  • Prestressed ground anchors are important structural elements in geotechnical engineering. Despite their widespread usage, the design process is often significantly simplified. One of the major drawbacks of commonly used design methods is the assumption that skin friction is mobilized uniformly along an anchor's fixed length, one consequence of which is that a progressive failure phenomenon is neglected. The following paper introduces an alternative design approach - a computer algorithm employing the load-transfer method. The method is modified for the analysis of anchors and combined with a procedure for the derivation of load-transfer functions based on commonly available laboratory tests. The load-transfer function is divided into a pre-failure (hardening) and a post-failure (softening) segment. In this way, an aspect of non-linear stress-strain soil behavior is incorporated into the algorithm. The influence of post-grouting in terms of radial stress update, diameter enlargement, and grout consolidation is included. The axial stiffness of the anchor body is not held constant. Instead, it gradually decreases as a direct consequence of tensile cracks spreading in the grout material. An analysis of the program's operation is performed via a series of parametric studies in which the influence of governing parameters is investigated. Finally, two case studies concerning three investigation anchor load tests are presented.

Factors Affecting User's Behavior of Smartphone: Integrated Model of Service Distribution, Addiction and Consequence

  • LEE, Won-Jun;SHIN, Luke Yunkeun
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제20권11호
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    • pp.99-108
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: The wide distribution of smartphones has changed life and user behavior. This phenomenon has both advantages and disadvantages for users. As smartphones become a part of our daily lives, smartphone addiction has recently become a social issue in many countries. This study explores factors that affect smartphone addiction and the consequences of addictive behaviors. Research design, data and methodology: Our model hypothesizes that four key factors determine addictive behavior: flow, enjoyment, preference for online social life, and escape reality. Commitment and compulsive use are mediating variables that connect key drivers and addictive results. Based on the SEM (structural equation model) analysis of 497 survey responses, these four driving factors each have a significant effect on the compulsive use of smartphones directly or indirectly; the compulsive use of smartphones directly influences the three results Results: We conducted a reliability and validity analysis, and the results were successful. In the hypothesis test, every path is accepted as expected at the significance level of 0.05. Conclusions: Among the four driving factors, escape reality is the vital factor influencing smartphone addiction and its consequences. And anxiety is the number one consequence influenced by the compulsive use of smartphones.

FNN 및 PNN에 기초한 FPNN의 합성 다층 추론 구조와 알고리즘 (The Hybrid Multi-layer Inference Architectures and Algorithms of FPNN Based on FNN and PNN)

  • 박병준;오성권;김현기
    • 대한전기학회논문지:시스템및제어부문D
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    • 제49권7호
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    • pp.378-388
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we propose Fuzzy Polynomial Neural Networks(FPNN) based on Polynomial Neural Networks(PNN) and Fuzzy Neural Networks(FNN) for model identification of complex and nonlinear systems. The proposed FPNN is generated from the mutually combined structure of both FNN and PNN. The one and the other are considered as the premise part and consequence part of FPNN structure respectively. As the consequence part of FPNN, PNN is based on Group Method of Data Handling(GMDH) method and its structure is similar to Neural Networks. But the structure of PNN is not fixed like in conventional Neural Networks and self-organizing networks that can be generated. FPNN is available effectively for multi-input variables and high-order polynomial according to the combination of FNN with PNN. Accordingly it is possible to consider the nonlinearity characteristics of process and to get better output performance with superb predictive ability. As the premise part of FPNN, FNN uses both the simplified fuzzy inference as fuzzy inference method and error back-propagation algorithm as learning rule. The parameters such as parameters of membership functions, learning rates and momentum coefficients are adjusted using genetic algorithms. And we use two kinds of FNN structure according to the division method of fuzzy space of input variables. One is basic FNN structure and uses fuzzy input space divided by each separated input variable, the other is modified FNN structure and uses fuzzy input space divided by mutually combined input variables. In order to evaluate the performance of proposed models, we use the nonlinear function and traffic route choice process. The results show that the proposed FPNN can produce the model with higher accuracy and more robustness than any other method presented previously. And also performance index related to the approximation and prediction capabilities of model is evaluated and discussed.

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CDU 내 탈황공정의 내부부식 된 파이프라인을 대상으로 한 RBI기법을 이용한 위험성 평가 (Risk Assessment Using RBI for Internal Corroded Pipelines in CDU Desulfurization Process)

  • 임동휘;정태준;이인동;정인희;고재욱
    • 한국가스학회지
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    • 제23권3호
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    • pp.33-39
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    • 2019
  • 2010년대에 들어서 노후화된 공정으로 인하여 많은 공장들의 안전이 보장되지 않은 채로 가동되고 있다. 공정 및 설비의 노후화 문제를 근본적으로 해결하기는 어렵지만, 사전에 위험성 평가로 위험을 예방할 수있다. 본 연구는 CDU(Crude Distillation Unit)의 탈황 장비에 있는 배관에서 황으로 인한 부식을 타겟으로 지정하였고, API RP 581를 참고한 RBI(Risk Based Inspection)기법으로 위험성 평가를 실시하였다. RBI 기법은 Frequency와 Consequence의 조합으로 Risk를 표현하고, 이들을 바탕으로 Risk Matrix를 만든다. 본 연구는 배관의 Hole Size를 Small과 Medium으로, Frequency의 감도는 'Low'로 선택하여 진행하였다. 기준을 통해 만들어진 Risk Matrix를 참고하여 배관에서 황으로 인한 부식의 사고 위험성을 평가하고 향후 사고 방지 계획을 세울 수 있다. 또한 이와 비슷한 방법으로 노후화에 대한 예방을 한다면 보이지 않는 크고 작은 사고들도 예방 할 수 있다.

고압 독성가스시설에서 API-581 적용성 및 사고결과 분석방법에 관한 연구 (A Study on Applicability of API-581 and Methodology for Consequence Analysis in High-Pressure Toxic Gas Facilities)

  • 장서일;김영란;박교식;신동일;김태옥
    • 한국가스학회지
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.76-85
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    • 2014
  • 본 연구는 독성가스 사고의 주요 원인의 하나인 부식에 대해 고압 독성가스시설을 대상으로 필요한 안전기술을 정립하기 위하여 미국석유학회에서 개발한 API-581 절차를 채택하여 사고결과 분석방법에 대한 적용성을 검토하고, 이를 바탕으로 사고결과 분석방법을 제시하였다. 고압 독성가스시설에서 API-581의 8단계 사고결과 분석절차에 따라 단계별 적용성을 검토한 결과, 고압 독성가스시설에 적용할 사고결과 분석방법은 총 6단계로 단순화 할 수 있었다. 즉, Step 1(대표물질 결정), Step 5(누출유형 결정), Step 6(유체상 결정)과 Step 8(사고 피해영역 산출)은 적용하지 않고, Step 3(누출량 산출)은 inventory group 개념만 적용하며, Step 4(누출속도 산출)는 기체 누출속도만을 적용하고, Step 2(누출공 크기 선정)와 Step 7(완화시스템 등급 결정)은 전부 적용한다. 이때, Step 5와 Step 8은 일반적으로 적용이 가능한 CCPS 방법을 대안적인 방법으로 채택한다.

두 대의 산업용 로보트를 이용한 협력 작업의 최적 시간 제어 (Optimal-Time Synthesis for the Two Coordinated Robot Manipulators)

  • 조현찬;전홍태
    • 대한전자공학회논문지
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    • 제26권10호
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    • pp.1471-1478
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    • 1989
  • The optimal-time control of the coordinated motion of two robot manipulators may be of consequence in the industrial automation. In this paper two robot manipulators garsping a common object are assumed to travel a specified Cartesian path and the method how to derive the optimal-time solution is explained. This approach is based on parameterizing the corresponding patn and utilizing the phase-plame technique in the trajectory planning. Also the torques supplied by the actuators are assumed to have some constant bounds. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated by a computer simulation using a PUMA 560 manipulator.

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정량적 위험성 평가에 의한 안전관리 투자의 비용-편익분석 (Cost-Benefit Analysis for Safety Management Cost using Quantitative Risk Analysis)

  • 장서일;조지훈;김태옥
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제4권4호
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    • pp.15-26
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    • 2002
  • The quantitative evaluation method of the safety management cost was suggested to prevent a gas accident as a major industrial accident. In a gas governor station, process risk assessments such as the fault tree analysis(FTA) and the consequence analysis were performed. Based on process risk assessments, potential accident costs were estimated and the cost-benefit analysis(CBA) was performed. From the cost-benefit analysis for five classification items of safety management cost, the order of the cost/benefit ratio was estimated.