• 전기학회논문지
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• 제62권12호
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• pp.1657-1660
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• 2013

Short-term load forecasting for Chusok and New Year's consecutive holidays is very difficult, due to the irregular characteristics compared with ordinary weekdays and insufficient holidays historical data. During consecutive holidays of New Year and Chusok, most of industries reduce their operation rates and their electrical load levels. The correlation between businesses' operation rates and their loads during consecutive holidays of New Year and Chusok is analysed and short-term load forecasting algorithm for consecutive holidays considering businesses' operation rates of industries is proposed. Test results show that the proposed method improves the accuracy of short-term load forecasting over fuzzy linear regression method.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제62권4호
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• pp.482-488
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• 2013

Load forecasting is essential to the economical and the stable power system operations. In general, the forecasting days can be classified into weekdays, weekends, special days and special light-load periods in short-term load forecast. Special light-load periods are the consecutive holidays such as Lunar New Years holidays, Korean Thanksgiving holidays and summer special light-load period. For the weekdays and the weekends forecast, the conventional methods based on the statistics are mainly used and show excellent results for the most part. The forecast algorithms for special days yield good results also but its forecast error is relatively high than the results of the weekdays and the weekends forecast methods. For summer special light-load period, none of the previous studies have been performed ever before so if the conventional methods are applied to this period, forecasting errors of the conventional methods are considerably high. Therefore, short-term load forecast for summer special light-load period have mainly relied on the experience of power system operation experts. In this study, the trends of load profiles during summer special light-load period are classified into three patterns and new forecast algorithms for each pattern are suggested. The proposed method was tested with the last ten years' summer special light-load periods. The simulation results show the excellent average forecast error near 2%.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제61권12호
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• pp.1765-1773
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• 2012

The accuracy of load forecast is very important from the viewpoint of economical power system operation. In general, the weekdays' load demand pattern has the continuous time series characteristics. Therefore, the conventional methods expose stable performance for weekdays. In case of special days or weekends, the load demand pattern has the discontinuous time series characteristics, so forecasting error is relatively high. Especially, weekdays near the thanksgiving day and lunar new year's day have the mixed load profile characteristics of both weekdays and weekends. Therefore, it is difficult to forecast these days by using the existing algorithms. In this study, a new load forecasting method is proposed in order to enhance the accuracy of the forecast result considering the characteristics of weekdays and weekends. The proposed method was tested with these days during last decades, which shows that the suggested method considerably improves the accuracy of the load forecast results.

• 대한인간공학회지
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.13-26
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• 2003

The purpose of this study is to investigate the present conditions of the night work and shift work systems in the heavy chemical industrial complexes found in Changwon, Masan, and Chinhae. Korea. We will attempt to define and classify their problems; and to discover further ways to improve their systems. Fifty production factories were carefully selected as the subjects for this study. The shift systems were classified into five categories. The consecutive night shifts were long in almost all cases with 6 days (36 factories) and 7 days (13 factories). It was found that the night work of about] 2 hours continues for a long period in the weekly rotation full-day shift systems and the night-including non-full-day shift systems, and there was no holiday during a shift cycle in the continuous full-day shift systems. The work time in most shift systems was longer than the 44-hours/week permitted by Korean law. Considering the characteristics of these various types of shift systems, the most essential thing to reduce the shift workers' work load may be to shorten their working hours and improve the schedule of shift systems. It is highly recommended as a fundamental solution. to reduce the portal-to-portal hours from 12 to 8 in the night-including non-full-day shift systems and the weekly rotation full-day shift systems, and at least to employ a 4-team 3-shift system in the continuous full-day shift systems. In addition to this, it should from now on be taken as a goal to restructure the types of shift systems by taking such measures as avoiding continuous night work if possible, providing sufficient off-duty intervals both before and after night shift, providing increased opportunities for workers to nap during night work. and increasing the number of holidays.