• 제목/요약/키워드: Confidence Estimation

검색결과 452건 처리시간 0.025초

Confidence Intervals for a Proportion in Finite Population Sampling

  • Lee, Seung-Chun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • 제16권3호
    • /
    • pp.501-509
    • /
    • 2009
  • Recently the interval estimation of binomial proportions is revisited in various literatures. This is mainly due to the erratic behavior of the coverage probability of the well-known Wald confidence interval. Various alternatives have been proposed. Among them, the Agresti-Coull confidence interval, the Wilson confidence interval and the Bayes confidence interval resulting from the noninformative Jefferys prior were recommended by Brown et al. (2001). However, unlike the binomial distribution case, little is known about the properties of the confidence intervals in finite population sampling. In this note, the property of confidence intervals is investigated in anile population sampling.

샘플링오차에 의한 품질통계 모형의 해석 (Interpretation of Quality Statistics Using Sampling Error)

  • 최성운
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
    • /
    • 제10권2호
    • /
    • pp.205-210
    • /
    • 2008
  • The research interprets the principles of sampling error design for quality statistics models such as hypothesis test, interval estimation, control charts and acceptance sampling. Introducing the proper discussions of the design of significance level according to the use of hypothesis test, then it presents two methods to interpret significance by Neyman-Pearson and Fisher. Second point of the study proposes the design of confidence level for interval estimation by Bayesian confidence set, frequentist confidential set and fiducial interval. Third, the content also indicates the design of type I error and type II error considering both productivity and customer claim for control chart. Finally, the study reflects the design of producer's risk with operating charistictics curve, screening and switch rules for the purpose of purchasing and subcontraction.

비모수적 커널교정과 구간추정 (Nonparametric kernel calibration and interval estimation)

  • 이재창;전명식;김대학
    • 응용통계연구
    • /
    • 제6권2호
    • /
    • pp.227-235
    • /
    • 1993
  • 순서쌍으로 주어진 자료 $(x_i, y_i), i=1,2,\cdots,n$ 들에 대한 독립변수와 관련된 추정은 회귀분석과는 달리 교정(calibration)이라고 불리워진다. 본 논문에서는 정규상 등과 같은 가정을 하지않고 비모수적인 커널방법을 이용하여 교정함수를 추정하고 추정된 교정함수의 붓스트랩 신뢰대를 이용한 독립변수의 구간추정을 제안하고자 한다. 교정과 커널방법에 대해 설명하였으며 독립변수의 추정에 대한 문헌적 고찰과 함께 붓스트랩 신뢰대에 대하여 첨언하였고 실제 자료를 통하여 다른방법과 비교, 분석하였다.

  • PDF

SEQUENTIAL INTERVAL ESTIMATION FOR THE EXPONENTIAL HAZARD RATE WHEN THE LOSS FUNCTION IS STRICTLY CONVEX

  • Jang, Yu Seon
    • Korean Journal of Mathematics
    • /
    • 제21권4호
    • /
    • pp.429-437
    • /
    • 2013
  • Let $X_1$, $X_2$, ${\cdots}$, $X_n$ be independent and identically distributed random variables having common exponential density with unknown mean ${\mu}$. In the sequential confidence interval estimation for the exponential hazard rate ${\theta}=1/{\mu}$, when the loss function is strictly convex, the following stopping rule is proposed with the half length d of prescribed confidence interval $I_n$ for the parameter ${\theta}$; ${\tau}$ = smallest integer n such that $n{\geq}z^2_{{\alpha}/2}\hat{\theta}^2/d^2+2$, where $\hat{\theta}=(n-1)\bar{X}{_n}^{-1}/n$ is the minimum risk estimator for ${\theta}$ and $z_{{\alpha}/2}$ is defined by $P({\mid}Z{\mid}{\leq}{\alpha}/2)=1-{\alpha}({\alpha}{\in}(0,1))$ Z ~ N(0, 1). For the confidence intervals $I_n$ which is required to satisfy $P({\theta}{\in}I_n){\geq}1-{\alpha}$. These estimated intervals $I_{\tau}$ have the asymptotic consistency of the sequential procedure; $$\lim_{d{\rightarrow}0}P({\theta}{\in}I_{\tau})=1-{\alpha}$$, where ${\alpha}{\in}(0,1)$ is given.

진동수주형 파력발전 시스템의 디지털 트윈 적용을 위한 불확실성 정량화 및 성능 신뢰구간 추정 연구 (A Study on Uncertainty Quantification and Performance Confidence Interval Estimation for Application to Digital Twin of Oscillating Water Column Type Wave Power Generator System)

  • 김태균;조수길;오재원;이태희
    • 한국산업융합학회 논문집
    • /
    • 제26권3호
    • /
    • pp.401-409
    • /
    • 2023
  • Oscillating water column (OWC) type wave power generator system is a power generation system that uses wave energy, a sustainable and renewable energy source. Irregular cycles and wave heights act as factors that make it difficult to secure generation efficiency of the wave power generator system. Recently, research for improving power generation efficiency is being conducted by applying digital twin technology to OWC type wave energy converter system. However, digital twin using sensor data can predict erroneous performance due to uncertainty in the sensor data. Therefore, this study proposes an uncertainty analysis method for sensor data which is used in digital twin to secure the reliability of digital twin prediction results. Uncertainty quantification considering sensor data characteristics and future uncertainty information according to uncertainty propagation were derived mathematically, and confidence interval estimation was performed based on the proposed method.

Alternative Confidence Intervals on the Sum of Variance Components in a Simple Regression Model with Unbalanced Nested Error Structure

  • Park Dong Joon;Lee Soo Jin
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • 제12권1호
    • /
    • pp.87-100
    • /
    • 2005
  • In order to construct confidence intervals on the sum of variance components in a simple regression model with unbalanced nested error structure, alternative confidence intervals using Graybill and Wang(1980) and generalized inference concept introduced by Tsui and Weerahandi(1989) are proposed. Computer simulation programmed by SAS/IML is performed to compare the simulated confidence coefficients and average interval lengths of the proposed confidence intervals. A numerical example is provided to demonstrate the confidence intervals and to show consistency between the example and simulation results.

이항 신뢰구간에서 극단값의 영향 (The Influence of Extreme Value in Binomial Confidence Interval)

  • 류제복
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • 제18권5호
    • /
    • pp.615-623
    • /
    • 2011
  • 이항비율에 대한 구간추정에 다양한 신뢰구간들이 사용된다. 그러나 대부분의 신뢰구간들은 모비율 p가 0이나 1에 근사할 때 포함확률이 신뢰수준(또는 명목수준, 1 - ${\alpha}$)을 크게 벗어난다. 이는 극단적인 관찰값의 영향 때문이다. Vollset (1993), Agresti와 Coull (1998), Newcombe (1998), Brown 등 (2001) 등은 극단값의 조정을 통해서 이러한 문제를 해결하는 방법들을 제시하였다. 본 연구에서는 극단값들이 이항비율에 대한 신뢰구간에 어느 정도 영향을 미치는지를 6개의 신뢰구간들에 대해서 수치적으로 비교해 보았다.

Two-Sample Inference for Quantiles Based on Bootstrap for Censored Survival Data

  • Kim, Ji-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
    • /
    • 제22권2호
    • /
    • pp.159-169
    • /
    • 1993
  • In this article, we consider two sample problem with randomly right censored data. We propse two-sample confidence intervals for the difference in medians or any quantiles, based on bootstrap. The bootstrap version of two-sample confidence intervals proposed in this article is simple to apply and do not need the assumption of the shift model, so that for the non-shift model, the density estimation is not necessary, which is an attractive feature in small to moderate sized sample case.

  • PDF

Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for the Reliability Function of an Exponential Distribution

  • Kang, Suk-Bok;Cho, Young-Suk
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • 제4권2호
    • /
    • pp.523-532
    • /
    • 1997
  • We propose several estimators of the reliability function R of the two-parameter exponential distribution, and then compare those estimator in terms of the mean square error (MSE) through Monte Carlo method. We also consider the parametric bootstrap estimation. Using the parametric bootstrap estimator, we obtain the bootstrap confidence intervals for reliability function and compare the proposed bootstrap confidence intervals in terms of the length and the coverage probability through Monte Carlo method.

  • PDF

가설검정 유형에 의한 신뢰구간 추정의 종류 및 유도 (Derivation of Confidence Intervals According to the Use Types of Hypothesis Tests)

  • 최성운
    • 대한안전경영과학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 대한안전경영과학회 2009년도 춘계학술대회
    • /
    • pp.541-546
    • /
    • 2009
  • The paper contributes deriving the confidence intervals according to the use types of hypothesis tests. The guidelines of usuage on the types of hypothesis tests and interval estimation are proposed. These formulars can be used to evaluate the effects of quality improvement activity

  • PDF