• Title/Summary/Keyword: Conceptual estimation

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Conceptual Design Trade Offs between Solid and Liquid Propulsion for Optimal Stage Configuration of Satellite Launch Vehicle

  • Qasim, Zeeshan;Dong, Yunfeng
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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    • 2008.03a
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    • pp.283-292
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    • 2008
  • The foremost criterion in the design of a Satellite Launch Vehicle(SLV) is its performance capability to boost the designated payload to the desired mission orbit; it starts from focusing on the SLV configuration to achieve the velocity requirements($}\Delta}V$) for the mission. In this paper we review an analytical approach which is suitable enough for preliminary conceptual design and is used previously to optimize stage configurations for Two Stage to Orbit SLV for Low Earth Orbit(LEO) Missions; we have extended this approach to Three Stage to Orbit SLV and compared different propellant options for the mission. The objective is to minimize the Gross Lift off Weight(GLOW). The primary performance figures of merit were the total inert weight of the SLV and the payload weight that the SLV could lift into LEO, given candidate propulsion systems. The optimization is achieved by configuring the $}\Delta}V$ between stages. A comparison of configurations of single-stage and multi-stage SLVs is made for different propellants. Based upon the optimized stage configurations a comparative performance analysis is made between Liquid and Solid fueled SLV. A 3 degree of freedom trajectory-analysis program is modeled in SIMULINK and used to conduct the performance analysis. Furthermore, a cost analysis is performed on our stage optimized SLVs. The cost estimation relationships(CER) used give us a comparison of development and fabrication costs for the Liquid vs. Solid fueled SLV in man years. The pros and cons of the production, operation ability, performance, responsiveness, logistics, price, shelf life, storage etc of both Solid and Liquid fueled SLVs are discussed. The statistics and data are used from existing or historical(real) SLV stages.

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A Study on the Construction Cost Index for Calculating Conceptual Estimation : 1970-1999 (개략공사비 산출을 위한 공사비 지수 연구 : 1970-1999)

  • Nam, Song Hyun;Park, Hyung Keun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.527-534
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    • 2020
  • A significant factor in construction work is cost. At early- and advanced-stage design, costs should be calculated to derive realistic cost estimates according to unit price calculation. Based on these estimates, the economic feasibility of construction work is assessed, and whether to proceed is determined. Through the Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, the construction cost index has been calculated by indirect methods after both the producer price index and construction market labor have been reprocessed to easily adjust the price changes of construction costs in Korea, and the Institute has announced it since 2004. As of January 2000, however, the construction cost index was released, and this has a time constraint on the correction and use of past construction cost data to the present moment. Variables were calculated to compute a rough construction cost that utilized past construction costs through surveys of the producer price index and the construction market labor force consisting of the construction cost index. After significant independent variables among the many variables were selected through correlation analysis, the construction cost index from 1970 to 1999 was calculated and presented through multiple regression analysis. This study therefore has prominent significance in terms of proposing a method of calculating rough construction costs that utilize construction costs that pre-date the 2000s.

A Practical Approach of Stress Path Method for Rational Settlement Estimation of Saturated Clay Deposit : Part II (Settlement Estimation Procedure and Application Examples) (포화 점성토지반 침하량의 합리적 평가를 위한 실용적인 응력경로법 적용방법 : Part II (침하량 평가절차와 적용예제))

  • Kim Chang-Youb;Chung Choong-Ki
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.99-114
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    • 2005
  • In Part I of this paper, a conceptual approach of the stress path method was newly proposed for a rational estimation of settlements of saturated clay deposits. A detailed procedure for effective evaluation and use of settlement-related characteristic deformation behaviors was developed in order to provide practicality to the new approach. In this Part II, on the basis of the results of Part 1, the concept of the new approach was embodied in the form of a detailed settlement estimation procedure. The applicability and usefulness of the new procedure were strongly supported by various application examples. In addition, possible errors of other conventional settlement estimation methods were investigated by comparing with the new procedure. Because of its flexible applicability for wide range of field conditions, the new procedure will have great usefulness in the practical side. For example, a reasonable foundation design based on allowable settlement criteria can be easily performed and modification of design factors can be readily reflected even during the subsequent construction stage. Especially, the new procedure will be of great use for preliminary work in a large scale construction site where various structures are planned to be constructed on a nearly identical ground condition.

A Study on the Initial Design Method for an Effective Acquisition of Future Ground Combat Vehicles (미래지상전투차량의 효과적 획득을 위한 초기설계기법에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-young;Kwon, Seung Man;Lee, Kyu Noh
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.41-49
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    • 2017
  • In the acquisition program, the conceptual design is the most important step toward specifying the military objectives, establishing requirements and determining future developmental directions, of a target system. However, if both the requirements and directions are incorrectly set due to the lack of development experiences and literature backgrounds in the target systems, such as future ground combat vehicles, it may become a major risk in the future design phases and the entire acquisition program. In order to correct these errors in the future phases, time, effort and cost are required. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the errors that occur in the initial stages to effectively acquire the future ground combat vehicles. This paper describes the initial design method for verifying the requirements and the developmental directions and estimating the system performance at the conceptual design through the system-level physical modeling and simulation (M&S) and the target system performance analysis. The system-level physical M&S use cutting-edge design tools, model-based designs and geometric-based designs. The system performance estimation is driven from the results of the system-level physical M&S and the specialized system analysis software.

Estimation of Seawater Intrusion Range in the Daechang Area Using 3D-FEMWATER Model (3D-FEMWATER 모델을 이용한 대창지역의 해수침투 범위추정)

  • Kim Kyoung-Ho;Park Jae-Sung;Lee Ho-Jin;Youn Ju-Heum
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.47 no.5
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    • pp.3-13
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    • 2005
  • The present study examined the 3 dimensional space distribution characteristics of sea water intrusion using data available from previous observations. For this study, we used 3D FEMWATER, which is a 3 dimensional finite element model. The target area was around Daechang-ri, Gimje-si, Jeollabuk-do. The area is relatively easy to formulate a conceptual model and has observation wells in operation for surveying sea water intrusion. Considering the uncertainty of numerical simulation, we analyzed sensitivity to hydraulic conductivity, which has a relatively higher effect. According to the result of the analysis, the variation of TDS concentration had an error range of $-1,336{\~}+107 mg/{\iota}$. Taking note that the survey data from observation wells were collected when the boundary between fresh water and sea water in the aquifer was in equilibrium, we set the range of time for numerical simulation and estimated the spatial distribution of TDS concentration as the range of sea water intrusion. According to the result of estimation, the spatial distribution of TDS concentration calculated when 1,440 days were simulated was taken as the range of sea water intrusion. Using the result of calculation, we can draw not only vertical views for a certain section but also horizontal views of different depth. These views will be greatly helpful in understanding the spatial distribution of the range of sea water intrusion. In addition, the result of this study can be used rationally in proposing an optimal quantity of water pumping through investigating the moving route of sea water intrusion over time in order to prevent excessive water pumping and to maintain an optimal number of water pumping wells per interval.

Development of Regression Model to evaluate the indirect costs of Life-Cycle Costs (생애주기비용의 간접비용 산출을 위한 Regression Model의 개발)

  • 조효남;이종순;김충완;박경훈
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.150-156
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    • 2004
  • Though the concept of Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) itself is not new, its effectiveness for planning, design, rehabilitation and maintenance/management of civil infrastructures is becoming increasingly recognized. For the decision problems as in the case of the LCC of plant facilities, equipments, bridge decks, pavements, etc., the Life-Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) is relatively simple, and thus its practical implementation is rather straightforward. However, when it comes to major infrastructures such as bridge, tunnels, underground facilities, etc., the LCCA problem becomes extremely complex because lack of cost data associated with various direct and indirect losses, and the absence of uncertainty data available for the assessment as well. As a result, the LCC studies have been largely limited only to those relatively simple LCCA problems of planning or conceptual design for making decisions. Accordingly, in the recent years, the researchers have pursued extensive studies on the LCC effectiveness mostly related to LCC models and frameworks for civil infrastructures. Moreover, recently the demand on the practical application of LCC effective decisions in design and maintenance is rapidly growing unprecedently in civil engineering practice. Indirction cost is very important on LCC formulation. But that is very difficult and complicate the estimation every LCC. The objective of this paper is to suggest efficient regression model for the estimation of indirect cost approach to the practical application of LCC for the design and rehabilitation of civil. infrastructures considering traffic, traffic network, detour condition, and workzone condition. In this paper, it performed the sensitivity analysis and correlation analysis of parameter for development of regression model of inflection cost.

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Comparative studies for the performance of a natural gas steam reforming in a membrane reactor (분리막 반응기를 이용한 천연가스 개질반응의 성능에 관한 비교 분석)

  • Lee, Boreum;Lim, Hankwon
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.95-101
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    • 2016
  • For a natural gas steam reforming, comparative studies of the performance in a conventional packed-bed reactor and a membrane reactor, a new conceptual reactor consisting of a reactor with series of hydrogen separation membranes, have been performed. Based on experimental kinetics reported by Xu and Froment, a process simulation model was developed with Aspen $HYSYS^{(R)}$, a commercial process simulator, and effects of various operating conditions like temperature, $H_2$ permeance, and Ar sweep gas flow rate on the performance in a membrane reactor were investigated in terms of reactant conversion and $H_2$ yield enhancement showing improved $H_2$ yield and methane conversion in a membrane reactor. In addition, a preliminary cost estimation focusing on natural gas consumption to supply heat required for the system was carried out and feasibility of possible cost savings in a membrane reactor was assessed with a cost saving of 10.94% in a membrane reactor.

Prediction of Building Construction Project Costs Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System(ANFIS) (적응형 뉴로-퍼지(ANFIS)를 이용한 건축공사비 예측)

  • Yun, Seok-Heon;Park, U-Yeol
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.103-111
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    • 2023
  • Accurate cost estimation in the early stages of a construction project is critical to the successful execution of the project. In this study, an ANFIS model was presented to predict construction costs in the early stages of a construction project. To increase the usability of the model, open construction cost data was used, and a model using limited information in the early stage of the project was presented. We analyzed existing studies related to ANFIS to identify recent trends, and after reviewing the basic structure of ANFIS, presented an ANFIS model for predicting conceptual construction costs. The variation in prediction performance depending on the type and number of membership functions of the ANFIS model was analyzed, the model with the best performance was presented, and the prediction accuracy of representative machine learning models was compared and analyzed. Through comparing the ANFIS model with other machine learning models, it was found to show equal or better performance, and it is concluded that it can be applied to predicting construction costs in the early stage of a project.

Estimation of Resistance of Smart Harbor Crane Ship (Smart Harbor Crane Ship의 저항 추정)

  • Shin, Hyun-Kyoung;Kim, Min-Su;Jeong, Won-Jin;Ha, Yong-Hwak
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.1-5
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    • 2012
  • Recently, with increasing container ships' volume continuously, the conceptual design "Smart Harbor" of newly logistics processing system has been suggested. It is necessary to estimate resistance and horsepower for the selection of an appropriate propulsor at the initial design stage of Smart Harbor. In this study, CFD and the circulating water channel of the University of Ulsan are employed for estimating the resistance of the Smart Harbor Crane Ship with 1/100 scaled model. Two turbulent models are used. One is realizable k-${\varepsilon}$and the other is Reynolds stress turbulence model. In addition, the effects of the change in y+ and the number of meshes are considered during analysing.

A Development of the Ship Weight Estimating Method by a Statistical Approach (통계적 접근법에 의한 선박 중량추정 방법 개발)

  • Cho, Yong-Jin
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.48 no.5
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    • pp.426-434
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    • 2011
  • Accurate weight prediction methods are an essential of the ship design in both ship cost managements and performance satisfactions. When no parent or similar ships are available, an adequate method of the ship weight estimating is required. In this study, there was carried out to develop the ship weight estimating method for the preliminary design phase. The weight estimating methods were first surveyed by the references and summarized their characteristics. The weight estimation method by statistical approach was developed for the container ship because the containerized transportation markets is gradually growing and ship's size and loading capacity are rapidly enlarged. The correlation analysis and the multiple regression analysis were used for developing the weight estimating method. As a results of evaluating the developed method, the error ratio of the variation between estimated weight and ship's data was about 5%. And it was only 1% difference with the calculating weight of conceptual design results by shipyard design team that the estimating weight of ultra-large container ship was predicted by the developed method.