• Title/Summary/Keyword: Comparative risk

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Optimization of Support Vector Machines for Financial Forecasting (재무예측을 위한 Support Vector Machine의 최적화)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Jae;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.241-254
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    • 2011
  • Financial time-series forecasting is one of the most important issues because it is essential for the risk management of financial institutions. Therefore, researchers have tried to forecast financial time-series using various data mining techniques such as regression, artificial neural networks, decision trees, k-nearest neighbor etc. Recently, support vector machines (SVMs) are popularly applied to this research area because they have advantages that they don't require huge training data and have low possibility of overfitting. However, a user must determine several design factors by heuristics in order to use SVM. For example, the selection of appropriate kernel function and its parameters and proper feature subset selection are major design factors of SVM. Other than these factors, the proper selection of instance subset may also improve the forecasting performance of SVM by eliminating irrelevant and distorting training instances. Nonetheless, there have been few studies that have applied instance selection to SVM, especially in the domain of stock market prediction. Instance selection tries to choose proper instance subsets from original training data. It may be considered as a method of knowledge refinement and it maintains the instance-base. This study proposes the novel instance selection algorithm for SVMs. The proposed technique in this study uses genetic algorithm (GA) to optimize instance selection process with parameter optimization simultaneously. We call the model as ISVM (SVM with Instance selection) in this study. Experiments on stock market data are implemented using ISVM. In this study, the GA searches for optimal or near-optimal values of kernel parameters and relevant instances for SVMs. This study needs two sets of parameters in chromosomes in GA setting : The codes for kernel parameters and for instance selection. For the controlling parameters of the GA search, the population size is set at 50 organisms and the value of the crossover rate is set at 0.7 while the mutation rate is 0.1. As the stopping condition, 50 generations are permitted. The application data used in this study consists of technical indicators and the direction of change in the daily Korea stock price index (KOSPI). The total number of samples is 2218 trading days. We separate the whole data into three subsets as training, test, hold-out data set. The number of data in each subset is 1056, 581, 581 respectively. This study compares ISVM to several comparative models including logistic regression (logit), backpropagation neural networks (ANN), nearest neighbor (1-NN), conventional SVM (SVM) and SVM with the optimized parameters (PSVM). In especial, PSVM uses optimized kernel parameters by the genetic algorithm. The experimental results show that ISVM outperforms 1-NN by 15.32%, ANN by 6.89%, Logit and SVM by 5.34%, and PSVM by 4.82% for the holdout data. For ISVM, only 556 data from 1056 original training data are used to produce the result. In addition, the two-sample test for proportions is used to examine whether ISVM significantly outperforms other comparative models. The results indicate that ISVM outperforms ANN and 1-NN at the 1% statistical significance level. In addition, ISVM performs better than Logit, SVM and PSVM at the 5% statistical significance level.

Survey on Comparative Awareness between Media and Industry on Occurrence of Food Safety Incident (식품안전사건 발생 시 미디어와 산업의 인식도 조사)

  • Shin, Won-Jung;Lee, Yu-Si;Oh, Se-Ra;Park, Tae-Gyun;Kim, Renee;Kim, Ho-Sik;Lee, Jung-Ho;Lee, Seung-Yong;Ha, Sang-Do
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.108-114
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    • 2013
  • To describe the comparative awareness between media and industry, we conducted a survey with a professional group including 28 food safety managers at food corporations and 17 food journalists to find out the differences in perception of 'reporting terms' and 'correspondence terms' when food safety incident occurs. We surveyed by questionnaire methods and did the statistical analysis by SPSS. The results showed that 70.6% of the journalists and 92.9% of the corporation workers answered 'yes indeed' about the question whether the media has a great influence when food safety incident occurs. In the perception that use of the stimulating terms of the media was the cause of company damage, 83% of the corporate workers answered 'yes indeed', and 70.6% of the journalists answered 'yes'. It means that both groups agreed on stimulating terms causing company damage. In the question whether the 'reporting terms' of the media and the 'correspondence terms' of the government and academia made a difference in the consumers' perception and the spread of the incident, 92.9% of the corporate workers and 35.3% of the journalists answered 'yes indeed'. It means that both groups showed a common opinion that the difference in choice of words expanded the perception of consumers, and the spread of the incident. However, the corporate workers agreed with this in a more serious manner than the journalist group. In standardization of 'reporting terms' and restricting use, corporate workers were overall at a positive stand while journalists showed a big difference in opinion within the group. In conclusion, it is necessary to establish a measure to standardize the terms used by corporations, journalists, and professionals in order to decrease the differences of terms and the damage of consumers and the company when food safety incident occurs.

Comparison of Results between Cytogenetic Technique and Molecular Genetic Technique in Colorectal Carcinoma Patients (대장암환자의 염색체 결실에서 세포유전학적 기법과 분자유전학적 기법의 결과 비교)

  • Park, Cheolin;Lee, Jae Sik
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.285-293
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    • 2017
  • Globally, 1.3 million people develop colon cancer every year, and 600,000 people die each year it. In Korea, colorectal carcinoma was associated with the highest death rate, accounting for 8,380 people, among solid cancers in 2015. Among the various methods for the diagnosis and study of colorectal carcinoma, the results obtained by cytogenetic and molecular genetic methods were compared. Detection rate was 47% in 18q, 40% in 17p, 27% in 22q, and 17% in 10q via CGH; detection rate was 57% in D18S59, 50% in D18S68, 50% in TP53CA, 47% in D18S6940% in D22S274, 37% in D22S283, 27% in D10S187, and 23% in D10S541 with LOH. Microsatellite marker matching rates were 100% in D22S274, 100% in D22S283, 100% in D10S186, 100% in D10S187, 100% in D10S541, 93% in D18S69, 93% in D18S68, 92% in TP53CA, and 89% in D18S59. The agreement rate between the two methods was 94.4% based on positive results using CGH. Based on the advantages of CGH, which was the ability to obtain information regarding the entire tumor genome at once, this experiment could identify the region with significant deletion using CGH and the more limited region LOH, with a completely different approach. LOH in the recurrent high-risk group, 18q21, was helpful in the selection of treatment modalities and in prognostic estimation as well as making the most appropriate decision for treatment. Therefore, it is suggested that LOH with surgical site tissues could be one of the treatment methods for recurrent high-risk group among patients with colorectal carcinoma.

A Comparative Study of Relationships among Eating Behavior, Intake Frequency of Food Group and Cardiovascular disease Related Factors in Vegetariand and Non-Vegetarians (채식인과 비채식인의 식습관, 식품군별 섭취빈도와 심혈과 질환관련인자와의 관련성에 관한 비교 연구)

  • 차복경
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.183-192
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    • 2001
  • The purpose of this study is to verify the relation between vegetarian diet and the risk factors of cardiovascular disease. To do the present study the vegetarians were selected; 127 Buddhist nuns (age : 23 ~ 79 yrs) from Oonmoon Temple in Choungdo District, Gyeongsang Book-do. For control subjects, 235 healthy female adults (age : 23~79yrs) were selected. They were the teachers, the nurses of the hospital of Gyeongsang National University and the housekeepers living in Chinju Gyeongsang Nam-do. This study was conducted from October 1996 to February 1997. The contents are consisted of anthropometric measurement, questionnaries about eating behavior and intake frequency of food group and clinical examination. The results were summarized as follows. The average ages of vegetarians and non-vegetarians were 44.2 yrs and 40.5 yrs respectively. Average body mass index (BMI) of vegetarians and non-vegetarians were 22.4 and 21.0, WHR were 0.8 and 0.8, percentage of body fat were 28.7 and 26.5 and the average duration of vegetarian diet of the vegetarians was 13.1 years. Eating behavior score of vegetarian was significantly higher than those of non-vegetarians. Eating behavior score was negatively of correlated with levels of serum total-cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol and atherogenic index (AI). In intake frequency of green vegetable, lemon-yellow vegetable, bumb and seaweeds of the vegetarians more than those of non-vegetarians. Levels of total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, AI, diastolic blood pressure, blood sugar and HDL cholesterol of non-vegetarians were significantly higher (p<0.01) than those of vegetarians, but ratio of HDL cholesterol/total-cholesterol was lower in non-vegetarians. Consequently, vegetable diet can be considerably diet help to decrease the risk of cardiovascular disease.

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Value of Pulmonary Function Test as a Predicting Factor of Pneumothorax in CT-guided Needle Aspiration of the Lung (전산화단층촬영 유도하 경피적 폐침생검시 기흉발생 예측인자로써의 폐기능검사의 가치)

  • Kim, Yeon-Jae;Kim, Chang-Ho;Lee, Yeung-Suk;Park, Jae-Yong;Kang, Duk-Sik;Jung, Tae-Hoon
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.259-266
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    • 1993
  • Background: To evaluate the risk factor of pneumothorax (PNX) which is the most common complication of CT-guided needle aspiration of the lung, we have examined the frequency of PNX according to the presence of obstructive ventilatory impairment determined by pulmonary function tests. Methods: A comparative study of analysis of forecd expiratory volume and folw-volume curves, and determinations of diffusing capacity taken before procedure were made between each 16 cases with PNX and controls with no PNX. Each of the control group was matched for sex, age, height, and size and depth of lesion with the former. Results: 1) In comparison of vital capacity and parameters derived from forced expiratory volume curve between two groups, VC and FVC were not significantly different, whereas $FEV_1$, $FEV_1$/FVC%, and FEF25-75% showed a significant decrease in the PNX gorup. Also, in the PNX group, all the observed values of parameters analyzed from flow-volune curve were siginificantly reduced in the PNX group compared with those in the control group. 2) The diffusing capacity tended to decrease along with varying individual differences in the PNX group. 3) Patients who had obstructive ventilatory impairment according to the results of pulmonary function tests experienced a twofold increase in the frequency of PNX and a sixfold increase in the frequency of chest tube drainage for treatment of PNX compared with those whose results were normal. Conclusion: These findings suggest that the exact evaluation of obstructive lung disease determined by pulmonary function test be considered assessing a pastient's risk for PNX in the patients who will take the CT-guided needle aspiration of the lung.

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Assessment of Compensator Thickness in Proton Therapy (양성자 치료 시 사용되는 Compensator의 Thickness에 대한 적정성 평가)

  • Park, Yong Soo;Jang, Jun Yeong;Cho, Gwang Hyeon;Park, Yong Cheol;Choi, Byeong Ki
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.30 no.1_2
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    • pp.35-40
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    • 2018
  • Purpose : The range of force differs from the size of proton energy used in our hospital. The compensator enables to change energy size based on distal thickness which also makes changes in dose rate. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of changing the thickness of compensator distal on dose range and beam on time. Subject and Methodology : Five low energy patients who have received proton therapy were selected as subjects for this study. Beam on was checked for the selected patients during the existing therapy. After then, the thickness of distal of compensator was increased by 2 cm up to 14 cm through proton therapy plan system(TPS) for comparative analysis. For the evaluation of dose range, the value of the target's conformity index(CI) and the maximum dose of rear side target's organ at risk(OAR) were compared. Furthermore, to evaluate the effect of therapy time, beam on time was compared by making compensator distal in each thickness. Result : The result of homogeneity index and conformity index of the increased compensator distal showed the same level in all patients. The comparison results of OAR of target rear side showed 7 cGy at spine cord of abdomen at maximum, 88 cGy at eyeball's RT lens, 391 cGy at RT lens of nasal cavity 51 cGy at trachea of the mediastinum, and 661 cGy at a small bowl of the pelvis. The comparison results of the beam on time showed a reduction from 126 seconds to 62 seconds for the abdomen, from 105 seconds to 37 seconds for the eyeball, from 187 seconds to 134 seconds for nasal cavity, from 100 seconds to 40 seconds for mediastinum, from 440 seconds to 118 seconds for the pelvis. Conclusion : The research result showed that as the distal thickness of compensator increased, the size of energy increased. In addition, beam on decreased due to the increase of dose rate. It is expected that the result would help reduce the treatment time and increase the convenience of patients if it is applied to liver patients who need respiratorygated therapy and pediatric patients. However, distal penumbra increased as the size energy increased. Therefore, in treating cases where OAR is in the vicinity of the target rear side, the influence of penumbra should be taken into account in adjusting thickness level of the compensator in proton therapy plan.

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Comparative Analysis of Detection Methods for Food-borne Pathogens in Fresh-cut Agricultural Materials (신선 농산물내 식중독균 검출 방법의 비교 분석)

  • Jang, Hye-Jeong;Kim, Hye-Jeong;Park, Ji-in;Yu, Sun-Nyoung;Park, Bo-Bae;Ha, Gang-Ja;Ahn, Soon-Cheol;Kim, Dong-Seob
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.10-16
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    • 2021
  • The consumption of fresh-cut agricultural materials is increasing due to increased public interest in health and the increase of single-person households. Most fresh-cut agricultural materials can be eaten without heating, thus easily exposing the consumer to food-borne pathogens. As a result, food-borne diseases are increasing worldwide. In the analysis of food-borne pathogens, it is important to detect the strains, but this is time consuming and laborious. Alternative detection methods that have been introduced, include polymerase chain reaction-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (PCR-DGGE), which is performed without prior culturing. Samples of fresh-cut agricultural materials, such as vegetables, were analyzed by the culture-based method. In 129 samples, non-pathogenic Escherichia coli (3.9%), Bacillus cereus (31.8%), Clostridium perfringens (5.4%), Yersinia enterocolitica (0.8%), and enterohemorrhagic E. coli (0.8%) were detected. Eight samples contaminated with bacteria were randomly selected, further analyzed by PCR-DGGE, and compared with the culture-based method. Two cases detected non-pathogenic E. coli by PCR-DGGE only, despite a lack of detection by the culture method. It was supposed there was possibility of sample loss during its 10-fold dilution for appropriate cultivation. In the detection of high-risk food-borne pathogens, it was found that the detection limit was lower in PCR-DGGE than in the culture-based method (10 CFU/g). This suggests that PCR-DGGE can be alternatively used to detect strains. On the other hand, low-risk food-borne pathogens seem to have higher detection limits in PCR-DGGE. Consequentially, this study contributes to the improvement of food-borne pathogen detection and the prevention of its related-diseases in fresh-cut agricultural materials.

Comparative evaluation of dose according to changes in rectal gas volume during radiation therapy for cervical cancer : Phantom Study (자궁경부암 방사선치료 시 직장가스 용적 변화에 따른 선량 비교 평가 - Phantom Study)

  • Choi, So Young;Kim, Tae Won;Kim, Min Su;Song, Heung Kwon;Yoon, In Ha;Back, Geum Mun
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.33
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    • pp.89-97
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to compare and evaluate the dose change according to the gas volume variations in the rectum, which was not included in the treatment plan during radiation therapy for cervical cancer. Materials and methods: Static Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (S-IMRT) using a 9-field and Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy (VMAT) using 2 full-arcs were established with treatment planning system on Computed Tomography images of a human phantom. Random gas parameters were included in the Planning Target Volume(PTV) with a maximum change of 2.0 cm in increments of 0.5 cm. Then, the Conformity Index (CI), Homogeneity Index (HI) and PTV Dmax for the target volume were calculated, and the minimum dose (Dmin), mean dose (Dmean) and Maximum Dose (Dmax) were calculated and compared for OAR(organs at risk). For statistical analysis, T-test was performed to obtain a p-value, where the significance level was set to 0.05. Result: The HI coefficients of determination(R2) of S-IMRT and VMAT were 0.9423 and 0.8223, respectively, indicating a relatively clear correlation, and PTV Dmax was found to increase up to 2.8% as the volume of a given gas parameter increased. In case of OAR evaluation, the dose in the bladder did not change with gas volume while a significant dose difference of more than Dmean 700 cGy was confirmed in rectum using both treatment plans at gas volumes of 1.0 cm or more. In all values except for Dmean of bladder, p-value was less than 0.05, confirming a statistically significant difference. Conclusion: In the case of gas generation not considered in the reference treatment plan, as the amount of gas increased, the dose difference at PTV and the dose delivered to the rectum increased. Therefore, during radiation therapy, it is necessary to make efforts to minimize the dose transmission error caused by a large amount of gas volumes in the rectum. Further studies will be necessary to evaluate dose transmission by not only varying the gas volume but also where the gas was located in the treatment field.

Study on dose comparison using X-Jaw split in VMAT treatment planning for left breast cancer including supraclavicular lymph nodes. (쇄골 상부 림프절을 포함하는 왼쪽 유방암의 VMAT 치료계획시 X-Jaw split을 이용한 선량비교에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hak Jun;Lee, Yang Hoon;Min, Jae Soon
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.33
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    • pp.137-144
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    • 2021
  • Purpose : The usability of X-Jaw split VMAT was evaluated by comparative analysis of the dose distribution between the treatment plan divided by X-Jaw and Full field VMAT treatment plan in left breast cancer treatment including supraclavicular lymph nodes. Materials and Methods : 10 patients with left breast cancer, including supraclavicular lymph nodes, were simulated using vacuum cushion, and 2 Full field Arc VMAT and 4 X-Jaw split Arc VMAT were planned The treatment plan was designed to include more than 95% of the Planning Target Volume (PTV) and to be minimally irradiated in the surrounding Organ at risk (OAR). Dose analysis of PTV and OAR was performed through dose volume histogram (DVH). Results : The Full field VMAT treatment plan and the X-Jaw split VMAT treatment plan of 10 patients were expressed as average values and compared. The difference between the two treatment plans was not large, with a Conformity index (CI) of 1.05±0.04, 1.04±0.03, and a Homogeneity index (HI) of 1.07±0.008, 1.07±0.009. For OAR, V5 in the left lung is 56.1±6.50%, 50.4±6.30%, and V20 is 20.0±4.15%, 13.52±3.61%. Compared to Full field VMAT, V5 decreased by 10.0% V20 by 32.6% in X-Jaw split VMAT. The V30 of the heart is 3.68±1.85%, 2.23±1.52%, and the Mean dose is 8.93±1.65 Gy, 7.67±1.52 Gy. In the X-Jaw split VMAT, V30 decreased by 39.3% and the Mean dose decreased by 14.1%. The left lung and heart, which are normal tissues, were found to have a statistical significance of that p-value is less than 0.05. Conclusion : In the case of left breast cancer treatment, which includes Supraclavicular lymph nodes with a large PTV volume and a length of X Jaw of 15 cm or more, the X-Jaw split VMAT shows improved dose distribution, which can reduce radiation dose of OAR such as lungs and heart, while maintaining similar PTV coverage with HI and CI equivalent to Full field VMAT. It is thought to be effective in reducing radiation complications.

A Comparative Evaluation of Dosal Usefulness in Total Scalp Irradiation according to Treatment Plans and Methods (총 두피 방사선치료 시 치료계획 방법에 따른 선량적 유용성 비교 평가)

  • Park byeal nim;Jung dong min;Kwon yong jae;Cho yong wan;Kim se young;Park kwang soon;Park ryeong hwang;Baek jong geol
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.34
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 2022
  • Objective: The purpose of this study is to choose a treatment plan and equipment to maximize tangential irradiation to protect the normal brain tissues as much as possible during total scalp irradiation. Subjects and Methods: After zoning the total scalp of a phantom and selecting a target area for treatment, the study made a Helical TomoTherapy(HT) plan, a Helical TomoTherapy with a Complete Block(HTCB) plan, and a Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy(VMAT) plan. All of these plans made sure that the volume of a treatment plan with 95% of a prescription dose(40 Gy) would not exceed 95% of the entire volume and that Dmax would not be more than 110% of the prescription dose. The therapy plans compared doses among organs at risk of damage including the brain. Doses in the brain tissues were assessed based on the volumetric criteria for normal tissues in Emami et al. Results: HT, HTCB, and VMAT had a dose of 21.68 Gy, 13.75 Gy, and 20.89 Gy, respectively, in brain tissues at D33%, a dose of 7.06 Gy, 3.21 Gy, and 7.84 Gy, respectively, at D67%, and a dose of 3.14 Gy, 1.75 Gy, and 3.84 Gy, respectively, at D100%. They recorded a Dmean of 16.64 Gy, 11.78 Gy, and 16.64 Gy, respectively. These results show that the overall dose was low in the HTCB plan. When the volume of a low dose was calculated based on 5 Gy, they recorded 87%, 49%, and 96%, respectively, in V5Gy. In addition, the maximum dose in the remaining organ(brain stem, hippocampus, and both lenses) except for the optic pathway was the lowest in HTCB Conclusion: The findings demonstrate that TomoTherapy with a complete block minimized a dose in organs at risk of damage including the brain and hippocampus on both sides and accordingly reduced the probability of side effects such as radiation-induced brain injuries and a resulting decrease in neurocognitive functions. In addition to total scalp irradiation, if additional studies on ring targets treated in various areas are conducted to establish the benefits of tangential irradiation, it is believed that TomoTherapy using Complete Block can be used to maximize tangential irradiation in treatment planning.