• Title/Summary/Keyword: Co-integration Relationship

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Analysis of Shipping Markets Using VAR and VECM Models (VAR과 VECM 모형을 이용한 해운시장 분석)

  • Byoung-Wook Ko
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.69-88
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzes the dynamic characteristics of cargo volume (demand), ship fleet (supply), and freight rate (price) of container, dry bulk, and tanker shipping markets by using the VAR and VECM models. This analysis is expected to enhance the statistical understanding of market dynamics, which is perceived by the actual experiences of market participants. The common statistical patterns, which are all shown in the three shipping markets, are as follows: 1) The Granger-causality test reveals that the past increase of fleet variable induces the present decrease of freight rate variable. 2) The impulse-response analysis shows that cargo shock increases the freight rate but fleet shock decreases the freight rate. 3) Among the three cargo, fleet, and freight rate shocks, the freight rate shock is overwhelmingly largest. 4) The comparison of adjR2 reveals that the fleet variable is most explained by the endogenous variables, i.e., cargo, fleet, and freight rate in each of shipping markets. 5) The estimation of co-integrating vectors shows that the increase of cargo increases the freight rate but the increase of fleet decreases the freight rate. 6) The estimation of adjustment speed demonstrates that the past-period positive deviation from the long-run equilibrium freight rate induces the decrease of present freight rate.

A Study on the Effect on Net Income of the Shipbuilding Industry through Exchange Hedge - Focused on the Global Top 5 Shipbuilders - (환헤지가 조선업체의 당기순이익에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, In karp;Kim, Jong keun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.133-146
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    • 2015
  • This study is to investigate the causal relationship between exchange hedge and the net income of the shipbuilder through the unit root test and co-integration and vector autoregressive model(Vector Autoregressive Model: VAR). First, quarter net income of shipbuilders to order a unit root tests from 2000 to 2013 was used as a value after the Johnson transformation. In the same period, the return on bond futures(KTBF), three years bond yield(KTB3Y), America-Korea exchange differences are weekly data for each quarterly difference in value was converted by utilization, shipbuilding shares after log transformation which it was used. Also, structural change point investigation analysis to verify that looked to take advantage of the structural changes occur in the exchange hedge strategies affecting net income in the shipbuilding industry. Between the exchange hedge and net income of shipbuilders in structural change points detection and analysis showed that structural changes occur starting in 2004. In other words, strategy of shipbuilders about exchange hedge has occurred from "passive exchange hedge" to "active exchange hedge". The exchange hedge of the Korea shipbuilders through the estimation of the VAR was able to grasp that affect the profitability of mutual shipbuilders. Macroeconomic variables and stock prices could also check to see that affected the net income of the shipbuilding industry.

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An Empirical Study on Main Factors Affecting Technology Balance of Payments (기술무역수지에 영향을 미치는 주요 요인들에 대한 실증연구)

  • Pak, Cheolmin;Ku, Bonchul
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.61-89
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    • 2017
  • This study aims to estimate empirically the respective impacts of R&D expenditure, R&D labor, overseas direct investment, commodity trade balance, and technology trade openness on technology balance of payments. To examine the presence of co-integration between them, this paper employed the ARDL-bounds test using time series data from 1981 to 2014, and the result shows that there is a stable long-run equilibrium relationship among them. Furthermore, we estimated long- and short-run coefficients of the technology balance of payments with respect to each variables based on long-run equilibrium equation and error correction model. As a result, the technology balance of payments respond negatively to R&D labor and technology trade openness, and R&D expenditure does produce positive effects in the long-run, while coefficients of overseas direct investment and commodity trade balance in the long-run are not statistically significant. Besides, according to results of error correction model, overseas direct investment only has clearly a positive effects in the short-run, in contrast, the short-term relationships between the other variables and the technology balance of payments could not definitively derived. This implies that it is necessary to procure and cultivate talented personnel, as well as to enlarge gradually technology trade size in order to improve technology balance of payments from a long-term point of view.

THE EFFECT OF THE RECIPIENT SITE DEPTH AND DIAMETER ON THE IMPLANT PRIMARY STABILITY IN PIG'S RIBS (돼지 늑골에서 임플란트 수용부 깊이와 직경이 임플란트 일차 안정성에 미치는 효과)

  • Lim, Jin-Su;Kim, Hyun-Syeob;Kook, Min-Suk;Park, Hong-Ju;Oh, Hee-Kyun
    • Maxillofacial Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.301-308
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    • 2007
  • Purpose: This study was performed to compare and evaluate the effect of recipient site depths and diameters of the drills on the primary stability of implant in pig's ribs. Materials and methods: An intact pig's rib larger than 8 mm in width and 20 mm in height; RBM(resorbable blasting media) surface blasted ${\phi}3.75mm$ and 8.0 mm long USII Osstem Implants (Osstem Co., Korea) were used. To measure the primary stability, $Periotest^{(R)}$ (Simens AG, Germany) and $Osstell^{TM}$ (Model 6 Resonance Frequency Analyser: Integration Diagnostics Ltd., Sweden) were used. They were divided into 6 groups according to its recipient site formation method: D3H3, D3H5, D3H7, D3.3H3, D3.3H5, D3.3H7. Each group had, as indicated, 10 implants placed, and total 60 implants were used. The mean value was obtained by 4-time measurements each on mesial, distal, buccal, and lingual side perpendicular to the long axis of the implant using $Periotest^{(R)}$ and $Osstell^{TM}$. For statistical analysis one-way ANOVA was used to compare the mean value of each group, and the correlation between placement depths and the primary stability, and that of measuring instruments was analyzed using SPSS 12.0. Results: The primary stability of the implants increased as the placement depths increased (p<0.05), and showed a proportional relationship (p<0.01). The primary stability increased when the diameter of the recipient site was smaller than that of the implant but with no statistical significance. There was a strong correlation between $Osstell^{TM}$ and $Periotest^{(R)}$ (p<0.01). Conclusion: These results suggest that increasing the placement depth of implants enhances the primary stability of implant.

An Empirical Analysis of the Regulation Effects on Webboard Games using VECM (벡터오차수정모형을 활용한 웹보드게임 규제영향에 대한 탐색적 연구)

  • Yoo, Byungjoon;Jeon, Seongmin
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.109-115
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    • 2014
  • Sales of online games companies that began from the small and medium-sized ventures, have grown to billions or hundreds of million dollars to target the global market. The issues related with industrial policies and regulations for game industry gain attentions. In particular, the Korean government has strengthened the relevant regulations of the webboard game service across many departments within the government such as Media Rating Commission, Game Products Administrative Committee, Ministry of Culture, Tourism and Sports, and Ministry of Female and Family. In this study, we analyze the effects of government regulation on webboard games using a VECM(Vector Error Correction Model). We have acquired the Gametrix time-series data during a year since July 2013. Having the co-integration estimated in the analysis process, we attempt to identify the long-term equilibrium relationship within webboard game industry and predict use time in near future. The results show that the use time has decreased to a third to a fourth comparing to the initial value at the beginning point in 2013. Two representative webboard games are exposed to the significant risks to have less or no use time. Additionally, we discuss the issues of the overall game industry influenced by the changes of webboard games.

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A Study on the Influence of User Experience of Fashion Sharing Application on Acceptance: Based on UTAUT Model (패션 공유 어플리케이션의 사용자 경험이 수용에 미치는 영향 연구: UTAUT 모형을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Gi-Hyung
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.82-93
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    • 2019
  • Fashion cannot encourage co-consumption with other people as a personal item, but it can lead to new consumer needs if fashion sharing service can professionally replace the time and cost of purchasing and managing goods. The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the factors influencing the acceptance of fashion-sharing services based on the integration theory of user acceptance and utilization (UTAUT), and to discuss the virtuous cycle and sustainability pursuit of resources through the activation of the sharing. In this study, the research model for the acceptance of fashion sharing applications is schematized, and the survey was conducted 300 women aged 20~49 years. The screens of 'Project Anne', a representative fashion sharing service in Korea, were provided as a visual data. Reliability analysis, correlation analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, structural equation analysis, and multiple group analysis were performed using SPSS 23.0 and AMOS 22.0 statistical package for statistical analysis. As a result, efficiency and social influence positively influenced behavioral intention to use, and age has found that efficiency and social influences modulate the intensity of behavioral intention to use. Therefore, for the consumer acceptance and activation of fashion sharing services, marketing activities emphasizing efficiency and strengthening social influence factors are essential. Also, it is necessary to maintain the existing target group, 30~40s, and also construct additional products and price services for the 20s. This study is of academic significance in presenting basic data for empirical research on consumer acceptance of fashion sharing, and suggests a study on the influence relationship among user experience components for real users in the future.

Multi-level Analysis of the Antecedents of Knowledge Transfer: Integration of Social Capital Theory and Social Network Theory (지식이전 선행요인에 관한 다차원 분석: 사회적 자본 이론과 사회연결망 이론의 결합)

  • Kang, Minhyung;Hau, Yong Sauk
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.75-97
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    • 2012
  • Knowledge residing in the heads of employees has always been regarded as one of the most critical resources within a firm. However, many tries to facilitate knowledge transfer among employees has been unsuccessful because of the motivational and cognitive problems between the knowledge source and the recipient. Social capital, which is defined as "the sum of the actual and potential resources embedded within, available through, derived from the network of relationships possessed by an individual or social unit [Nahapiet and Ghoshal, 1998]," is suggested to resolve these motivational and cognitive problems of knowledge transfer. In Social capital theory, there are two research streams. One insists that social capital strengthens group solidarity and brings up cooperative behaviors among group members, such as voluntary help to colleagues. Therefore, social capital can motivate an expert to transfer his/her knowledge to a colleague in need without any direct reward. The other stream insists that social capital provides an access to various resources that the owner of social capital doesn't possess directly. In knowledge transfer context, an employee with social capital can access and learn much knowledge from his/her colleagues. Therefore, social capital provides benefits to both the knowledge source and the recipient in different ways. However, prior research on knowledge transfer and social capital is mostly limited to either of the research stream of social capital and covered only the knowledge source's or the knowledge recipient's perspective. Social network theory which focuses on the structural dimension of social capital provides clear explanation about the in-depth mechanisms of social capital's two different benefits. 'Strong tie' builds up identification, trust, and emotional attachment between the knowledge source and the recipient; therefore, it motivates the knowledge source to transfer his/her knowledge to the recipient. On the other hand, 'weak tie' easily expands to 'diverse' knowledge sources because it does not take much effort to manage. Therefore, the real value of 'weak tie' comes from the 'diverse network structure,' not the 'weak tie' itself. It implies that the two different perspectives on strength of ties can co-exist. For example, an extroverted employee can manage many 'strong' ties with 'various' colleagues. In this regards, the individual-level structure of one's relationships as well as the dyadic-level relationship should be considered together to provide a holistic view of social capital. In addition, interaction effect between individual-level characteristics and dyadic-level characteristics can be examined, too. Based on these arguments, this study has following research questions. (1) How does the social capital of the knowledge source and the recipient influence knowledge transfer respectively? (2) How does the strength of ties between the knowledge source and the recipient influence knowledge transfer? (3) How does the social capital of the knowledge source and the recipient influence the effect of the strength of ties between the knowledge source and the recipient on knowledge transfer? Based on Social capital theory and Social network theory, a multi-level research model is developed to consider both the individual-level social capital of the knowledge source and the recipient and the dyadic-level strength of relationship between the knowledge source and the recipient. 'Cross-classified random effect model,' one of the multi-level analysis methods, is adopted to analyze the survey responses from 337 R&D employees. The results of analysis provide several findings. First, among three dimensions of the knowledge source's social capital, network centrality (i.e., structural dimension) shows the significant direct effect on knowledge transfer. On the other hand, the knowledge recipient's network centrality is not influential. Instead, it strengthens the influence of the strength of ties between the knowledge source and the recipient on knowledge transfer. It means that the knowledge source's network centrality does not directly increase knowledge transfer. Instead, by providing access to various knowledge sources, the network centrality provides only the context where the strong tie between the knowledge source and the recipient leads to effective knowledge transfer. In short, network centrality has indirect effect on knowledge transfer from the knowledge recipient's perspective, while it has direct effect from the knowledge source's perspective. This is the most important contribution of this research. In addition, contrary to the research hypothesis, company tenure of the knowledge recipient negatively influences knowledge transfer. It means that experienced employees do not look for new knowledge and stick to their own knowledge. This is also an interesting result. One of the possible reasons is the hierarchical culture of Korea, such as a fear of losing face in front of subordinates. In a research methodology perspective, multi-level analysis adopted in this study seems to be very promising in management research area which has a multi-level data structure, such as employee-team-department-company. In addition, social network analysis is also a promising research approach with an exploding availability of online social network data.

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A Study on the Effect of High Performance Work System on Organizational Effectiveness - Focusing on the regulating role of HR management effectiveness - (고성과 작업시스템이 조직유효성에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 - 인사관리 효과성의 조절역할을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Moon-Jun
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.139-163
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to identify the influence of the high performance and the work system recognized by the organizational members participating in the NCS enterprise utilization consulting on the organizational effectiveness and the influence of the organizational performance. In order to achieve the purpose of this study, the research hypotheses were verified by applying multiple regression analysis and co-integration regression analysis on the 145 usable results from using the statistical program of SPSS 24.0. The results of this study are as follows. First, hypothesis 1, the analysis of positive(+) influence on organizational effectiveness on the characteristics of the system (selection system, evaluation and compensation, education and training opportunity, member participation system, job stability) was adopted due to its' positive(+) and significant relationship. Second, hypothesis 2, an analysis that the organizational effectiveness would have a positive impact on organizational performance was adopted due to its' proven work. However, its' effectiveness will need verification. Third, regression analysis was conducted to confirm the role of the hypothesis 3, personnel management effectiveness, between the high performance and the work system (selection system, evaluation/compensation, education/training opportunity, member participation system, job stability). As a result, Hypothesis 3 showed that the selection system (H3-1), evaluation and compensation(H3-2), education and career opportunities(H3-3), member participation system(H3-4), job stability(H3-4) showed that organizational effectiveness has a moderating role in HR effectiveness. The main implication of this study is that the positive and working system recognized by the organizational members has positive affects on organizational effectiveness and organizational performance. In order to enhance the substantiality management system through improvement of organizational performance, a regular implementation plan on a high-performance working system along with education & training system to improve organizational effectiveness is required so that the members of the organization could form a consensus. Second, as a result of confirming the moderating effects of HR management effectiveness, the moderating role of HR management system and organization effectiveness was verified positive. Therefore, this study shows that the part that verifies both organizational effectiveness and organizational performance through high-performance working system and the part that confirmed the role of control between high-performance work system and organizational effectiveness are the biggest difference from the previous research.

The Policy of Win-Win Growth between Large and Small Enterprises : A South Korean Model (한국형 동반성장 정책의 방향과 과제)

  • Lee, Jang-Woo
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.77-93
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    • 2011
  • Since 2000, the employment rate of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) has dwindled while the creation of new jobs and the emergence of healthy SMEs have been stagnant. The fundamental reason for these symptoms is that the economic structure is disadvantageous to SMEs. In particular, the greater gap between SMEs and large enterprises has resulted in polarization, and the resulting imbalance has become the largest obstacle to improving SMEs' competitiveness. For example, the total productivity has continued to drop, and the average productivity of SMEs is now merely 30% of that of large enterprises, and the average wage of SMEs' employees is only 53% of that of large enterprises. Along with polarization, rapid industrialization has also caused anti-enterprise consensus, the collapse of the middle class, hostility towards establishments, and other aftereffects. The general consensus is that unless these problems are solved, South Korea will not become an advanced country. Especially, South Korea is now facing issues that need urgent measures, such as the decline of its economic growth, the worsening distribution of profits, and the increased external volatility. Recognizing such negative trends, the MB administration proposed a win-win growth policy and recently introduced a new national value called "ecosystemic development." As the terms in such policy agenda are similar, however, the conceptual differences among such terms must first be fully understood. Therefore, in this study, the concepts of win-win growth policy and ecosystemic development, and the need for them, were surveyed, and their differences from and similarities with other policy concepts like win-win cooperation and symbiotic development were examined. Based on the results of the survey and examination, the study introduced a South Korean model of win-win growth, targeting the promotion of a sound balance between large enterprises and SMEs and an innovative ecosystem, and finally, proposing future policy tasks. Win-win growth is not an academic term but a policy term. Thus, it is less advisable to give a theoretical definition of it than to understand its concept based on its objective and method as a policy. The core of the MB administration's win-win growth policy is the creation of a partnership between key economic subjects such as large enterprises and SMEs based on each subject's differentiated capacity, and such economic subjects' joint promotion of growth opportunities. Its objective is to contribute to the establishment of an advanced capitalistic system by securing the sustainability of the South Korean economy. Such win-win growth policy includes three core concepts. The first concept, ecosystem, is that win-win growth should be understood from the viewpoint of an industrial ecosystem and should be pursued by overcoming the issues of specific enterprises. An enterprise is not an independent entity but a social entity, meaning it exists in relationship with the society (Drucker, 2011). The second concept, balance, points to the fact that an effort should be made to establish a systemic and social infrastructure for a healthy balance in the industry. The social system and infrastructure should be established in such a way as to create a balance between short- term needs and long-term sustainability, between freedom and responsibility, and between profitability and social obligations. Finally, the third concept is the behavioral change of economic entities. The win-win growth policy is not merely about simple transactional relationships or determining reasonable prices but more about the need for a behavior change on the part of economic entities, without which the objectives of the policy cannot be achieved. Various advanced countries have developed different win-win growth models based on their respective cultures and economic-development stages. Japan, whose culture is characterized by a relatively high level of group-centered trust, has developed a productivity improvement model based on such culture, whereas the U.S., which has a highly developed system of market capitalism, has developed a system that instigates or promotes market-oriented technological innovation. Unlike Japan or the U.S., Europe, a late starter, has not fully developed a trust-based culture or market capitalism and thus often uses a policy-led model based on which the government leads the improvement of productivity and promotes technological innovation. By modeling successful cases from these advanced countries, South Korea can establish its unique win-win growth system. For this, it needs to determine the method and tasks that suit its circumstances by examining the prerequisites for its success as well as the strengths and weaknesses of each advanced country. This paper proposes a South Korean model of win-win growth, whose objective is to upgrade the country's low-trust-level-based industrial structure, in which large enterprises and SMEs depend only on independent survival strategies, to a high-trust-level-based social ecosystem, in which large enterprises and SMEs develop a cooperative relationship as partners. Based on this objective, the model proposes the establishment of a sound balance of systems and infrastructure between large enterprises and SMEs, and to form a crenovative social ecosystem. The South Korean model of win-win growth consists of three axes: utilization of the South Koreans' potential, which creates community-oriented energy; fusion-style improvement of various control and self-regulated systems for establishing a high-trust-level-oriented social infrastructure; and behavioral change on the part of enterprises in terms of putting an end to their unfair business activities and promoting future-oriented cooperative relationships. This system will establish a dynamic industrial ecosystem that will generate creative energy and will thus contribute to the realization of a sustainable economy in the 21st century. The South Korean model of win-win growth should pursue community-based self-regulation, which promotes the power of efficiency and competition that is fundamentally being pursued by capitalism while at the same time seeking the value of society and community. Already existing in Korea's traditional roots, such objectives have become the bases of the Shinbaram culture, characterized by the South Koreans' spontaneity, creativity, and optimism. In the process of a community's gradual improvement of its rules and procedures, the trust among the community members increases, and the "social capital" that guarantees the successful control of shared resources can be established (Ostrom, 2010). This basic ideal can help reduce the gap between large enterprises and SMEs, alleviating the South Koreans' victim mentality in the face of competition and the open-door policy, and creating crenovative corporate competitiveness. The win-win growth policy emerged for the purpose of addressing the polarization and imbalance structure resulting from the evolution of 21st-century capitalism. It simultaneously pursues efficiency and fairness on one hand and economic and community values on the other, and aims to foster efficient interaction between the market and the government. This policy, however, is also evolving. The win-win growth policy can be considered an extension of the win-win cooperation that the past 'Participatory Government' promoted at the enterprise management level to the level of systems and culture. Also, the ecosystemic development agendum that has recently emerged is a further extension that has been presented as a national ideal of "a new development model that promotes the co-advancement of environmental conservation, growth, economic development, social integration, and national and individual development."