• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.99-99
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• 2022

Jeju island has a humid subtropical climate and this climate zone is expected to migrate northward toward the main land, Korea Peninsula, as temperature increases are accelerated. Vegetation type has been inevitably shifted along with the climatic change, having more subtropical species native in southeast Asia or even in Africa. With the forest composition shift, it becomes more important than ever to analyze the water balance of the forest wihth the ongoing as well as upcoming climate change. Here, we implemented the Ecosystem Demography Biosphere Model (ED2) by initializing the key variables using forest inventory data (diameter at breast height in 2012). Out of 10,000 parameter sets randomly generated from prior distribution distributions of each parameter (i.e., Monte-Carlo Method), we selected four behavioral parameter sets using remote-sensing data (LAI-MOD15A2H, GPP-MOD17A2H, and ET-MOD16A2, 8-days at 500-m during 2001-2005), and evaluated the performances using eddy-covariance carbon flux data (2012 Mar.-Sep. 30-min) and remote sensing data between 2006-2020. We simulated each of the four RCP scenarios (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) from four climate forcings (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MIROC5 from ISIMIP2b). Based on those 64 simulation sets, we estimate the changes in water balance resulting from the forest composition shift, and also uncertainty in the estimates and the sensitivity of the estimates to the parameters, climate forcings, and RCP scenarios.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry, and Cartography Conference
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• 2010.04a
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• pp.383-385
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• 2010

This study analyzed the change of flowout and suspend solid in Andong and Imha basin according to the climate change to develop evaluation index about turbid water occurrence possibility and to support the countermeasures for turbid water management using GIS-based Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT). MIROC3.2 hires model values of A1B climate change scenario that were supplied by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were applied to future climage change data. Precipitation and temperature were corrected by applying the output value of 20th Century Climate Coupled Model (20C3M) based on past climate data during 1977 and 2006 and downscaled with Change Factor (CF) method. And future climate change scenarios were classified as three periods (2020s, 2050s, 2080s) and the change of flowout and suspended solid according to the climate change were estimated by coupling modeled value with SWAT model.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.40 no.3
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• pp.191-204
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• 2007

To evaluate the climate change impacts on water resources, this study generates and analyzes the climate change scenarios for 139 sub-basins in Korea using high resolution ($27km\;{\times}\; 27km$) SHES A2 scenario and LARS-WG. The $27km\;{\times}\; 27km$ high resolution NCAR/PSU MM5 scenario is downscaled from 350km horizontal resolution ECHO-G data. The A2 scenario relatively well reproduced Korean spatial precipitation characteristics, but it underestimated the precipitation over the Han River and the Gum River basins. The LARS-WG was selected and evaluated to overcome the limitation of climate model and to create a highly reliable climate scenario. The results show that the monthly mean minimum and maximum temperature and monthly mean precipitation are within ${\pm}20%$ from the observed mean, and ${\pm}50%$ from the standard deviation that represents the generated data are highly reliable. Moreover, the comparison results between observed data and generated data from LARS-WG show that the latter can reflect the regional climate characteristic very well that can not be simulated from the former.

• Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.11-19
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• 2014

This study is analyze future climate and land cover change affects behaviors for amount of streamflow and sediment discharge within basin. We used the climate forecast data in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 (2011-2100) which is opposite view for each other among RCP scenarios that are discussed for 5th report for IPCC. Land cover map built based on a social economic storyline in RCP 4.5/8.5 using Logistic Regression model. In this study we set three scenarios: one scenario for climate change only, one for land cover change only, one for Last both climate change and land cover change. It simulated amount of streamflow and sediment discharge and the result showed a very definite change in the seasonal variation both of them. For climate change, spring and winter increased the amount of streamflow while summer and fall decreased them. Sediment showed the same pattern of change steamflow. Land cover change increases the amount of streamflow while it decreases the amount of sediment discharge, which is believed to be caused by increase of impervious Surface due to urbanization. Although land cover change less affects the amount of streamflow than climate change, it may maximize problems related to the amount of streamflow caused by climate change. Therefore, it's required to address potential influence from climate change for effective water resource management and prepare suitable measurement for water resource.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.47-56
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• 2020

Decline of pine forests happens in Korea due to various disturbances such as insect pests, forest fires and extreme climate, which may further continue with ongoing climate change. For conserving and reestablishing pine forests, understanding climate-induced future shifts of pine tree distribution is a critical concern. This study predicts future geographical distribution of Pinus densiflora, using Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt). Input data of the model are locations of pine tree stands and their environmental variables such as climate were prepared for the model inputs. Alternative future projections for P. densiflora distribution were conducted with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. As results, the future distribution of P. densiflora steadily decreased under both scenarios. In the case of RCP 8.5, the areal reductions amounted to 11.1% and 18.7% in 2050s and 2070s, respectively. In 2070s, P. densiflora mainly remained in Kangwon and Gyeongsang Provinces. Changes in temperature seasonality and warming winter temperature contributed primarily for the decline of P. densiflora., in which altitude also exerted a critical role in determining its future distribution geographic vulnerability. The results of this study highlighted the temporal and spatial contexts of P. densiflora decline in Korea that provides useful ecological information for developing sound management practices of pine forests.

• Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.154-163
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• 2021

This study was carried out to identify the factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for Geranium carolinianum, which was naturalized in South Korea, and to predict the changes of distribution in the future. We collected occurrence data of G. carolinianum at 68 sites in South Korea, and applied the MaxEnt model under climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). Precipitation seasonality (bio15), mean temperature of warmest quarter (bio10), and mean temperature of driest quarter (bio09) had high contribution for potential distribution of G. carolinianum. According to climate change scenarios, high suitable habitats of G. carolinianum occupied 6.43% of the land of South Korea in historical period (1981~2010), and 92.60% under SSP2-4.5, and 98.36% undr SSP5-8.5 in far future (2071~2100).

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.257-268
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• 2016

Both economic growth and industrial structure have great influence on energy consumption and GHG emissions. This study analyzed long-term scenarios for GHG emissions projections considering economic growth and industry value added change. In consideration of 3 GDP and 3 industry value added outlook, total 9 scenarios were set; 'Assembly Industry Baseline(AI)', 'Assembly KEIT industry(AK)', 'Assembly Advanced Country industry(AA)', 'KDI Industry Baseline(KI)', 'KDI KEIT industry(KK)', 'KDI Advanced Country industry(KA)', 'OECD Industry Baseline(OI)', 'OECD KEIT industry(OK)', and 'OECD Advanced Country industry(OA)' scenarios. In consideration of the GDP increase rate and industry value added outlook, it is estimated that AI scenario's GHG emissions would be 777 million tons of $CO_2eq$ in 2030. On the other hand, in the case of OA scenario, GHG emissions would be 560.2 million tons of $CO_2eq$ in 2030. Differences between AI scenario's and OA scenario's were 216.8 million tons of $CO_2eq$. It can be identified by that GDP and industry value added change have great influence on GHG emissions. In view of the fact that Korea's amount of GHG emission reduction targets in 2030 were 218.6 million tons of $CO_2eq$ that the result of this research could give us valuable insight.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.69-69
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• 2021

From the unprecedented 2011 spring flood, the residens reside by Lake Champlain and Richelieu River encountered enormous damages. The International Joint Committee (IJC) released the Lake Champlain-Richelieu River (LCRR) Plan of Study (PoS). One of the major tasks for the PoS is to investigate the possible scenarios that might happen in the LCRR basin based on the stochastic simulation of the Net Basin Supplies that calculates the amount of flow into the lake and the river. Therefore, the current study proposed a novel apporach that simulate the annual NBS teleconnecting the climate index. The proposed model employed the bivariate empirical decomposition to contamporaneously model the long-term evolution of nonstationary oscillation embeded in the annual NBS and the climate signal (here, Artic Oscillation: AO). In order to represent the variational behavior of NBS correlation structure along with the temporal revolution of the climate index, a new nonstationary parameterization concept is proposed. The results indicate that the proposed model is superior performance in preserving long and short temporal correlation. It can even preserve the hurst coefficient better than any other tested models.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.205-216
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• 2015

The CMIP5 climate change scenarios from 34 GCMs were analyzed to quantitatively assess future changes in temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation against the global region and the Northeast Asia region with a focus on South Korea, North Korea, or Japan. The resulting projection revealed that the Northeast Asia region is subjected to more increase in temperature and precipitation than the global means for both. In particular, temperature and precipitation in North Korea were projected to increase about $5.1^{\circ}C$ and 18%, respectively under the RCP 8.5 scenario, as compared to the historical means for 30 years (1971-2000), although a large uncertainty still exists among GCMs. For solar radiation, global mean solar radiation was predicted to decrease with time in all RCP scenarios except for the RCP 2.6 scenario. On the contrary, it was predicted that the amount of solar radiation in the Northeast Asia increases in the future period.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.107-121
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• 2011

To assess the impact of climate change on water quality in an impounded river basin, this study estimated future air temperature and rainfall in the years of 2020, 2050 and 2080 by statistically downscaling the simulation results from two GCM models combined with two emission scenarios (A2 and B1). Both scenarios were selected from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) suggested by IPCC. The A2 scenario represents an extreme condition whereas the B1 scenario represents a clean and energy efficient condition which is similar to that of study basin. With the results of estimated climate factors and land use data, the discharge and the concentrations of BOD, TN and TP in the Andong dam basins were simulated using the SWAT model. The change in BOD concentration for the B1 emission scenario was greater than the A2 scenario in the annual increase range and the pollution level. The concentration of TN was decreased during March? June which is drought period and increased again afterward. In contrast to TN, the concentration of TP was generally decreased. The change in TP concentration was greater for the B1 scenario than the A2 scenario.