• Title/Summary/Keyword: Climate effect

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Simulation of the Effects of the A1B Climate Change Scenario on the Potential Yield of Winter Naked Barley in Korea (A1B 기후변화 시나리오가 국내 가을 쌀보리의 잠재수량에 미치는 영향 모사)

  • Shim, Kyo-Moon;Min, Sung-Hyun;Lee, Deog-Bae;Kim, Gun-Yeob;Jeong, Hyun-Cheol;Lee, Seul-Bi;Kang, Ki-Keong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.192-203
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    • 2011
  • The CERES-Barley crop simulation model was used to assess the impacts of climate change on the potential yield of winter naked barley in Korea. Fifty six sites over the southern part of the Korean Peninsula were selected to compare the climate change impacts in various climatic conditions. Based on the A1B climate change scenarios of Korea, the present climatological normal (1971-2000) and the three future ones (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) were considered in this study. The three future normals were divided by three environmental conditions with changes in: (1) temperature only, (2) carbon dioxide concentration only, and (3) both temperature and carbon dioxide concentration. The agreement between the observed and simulated outcomes was reasonable with the coefficient of determination of grain yield to be 0.78. We concluded that the CERES-Barley model was suitable for predicting climate change impacts on the potential yield of winter naked barley. The effect of the increased temperature only with the climate change scenario was negative to the potential yield of winter naked barley, which ranges from -34 to -9% for the three future normals. However, the effect of the elevated carbon dioxide concentration only on the potential yield of winter naked barley was positive, ranging from 6 to 31% for the three future normals. For the elevated conditions of both temperature and carbon dioxide concentration, the potential yields increased by 8, 15, and 13% for the 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 normals, respectively.

A Study on Comparative Analysis of Socio-economic Impact Assessment Methods on Climate Change and Necessity of Application for Water Management (기후변화의 사회경제적 영향평가 방법론 비교분석과 물관리 부문 적용 필요성에 관한연구)

  • Chee, Hee Mun;Park, Doo Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of societal Security
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.57-64
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    • 2011
  • Although it is uncertain that the cause of changed pattern of the natural disaster related to water (i.e. flood and drought) is due to excessive carbon dioxide yielded from economic activity or the increased number of sunspots, it is apparent that there have been unusual climate change that directly affects the water resource management. Due to such a frequent unusual weather activities, there have been increased natural disaster and the most direct and major reason is considered as climate change. As we see, the climate change necessarily causes social costs. Especially, the effects on the water resource due to flood and drought take the considerable part of such costs. Therefore, this study is basic work to develop a new economic analysis technique to be used in pursuing appropriate adaptation project in field of the amount of cost damage through analysis of the effects of the climate change on the water resource. The models appeared in many reports for cost assessment of climate change were various (e.g., PAGE, DICE, AIM, IMAGE, MERGE, and etc.) and this report summarizes general characteristics of each model. To assess the effects of climate change of the water management, we defined the field of the water management on climate change. The results help post-study in field of the climate change's social-economic effect assessment, can be employed for the prioritizing process of the national fund's investment.

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Effect of Climate Change and Urbanization on Flow and BOD Concentration Duration Curves (기후변화 및 도시화에 따른 유황곡선 및 BOD 농도지속곡선 변화)

  • Park, Kyung-Shin;Chung, Eun-Sung;Kim, Sang-Ug;Lee, Kil-Seong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.12
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    • pp.1091-1102
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    • 2009
  • This study developed an integrated approach to climate change and urbanization impact assessment by linking models of SDSM (statistical downscaling model), HSPF (hydrological simulation program?Fortran) and ICM (impervious cover model). A case study of the Anyangcheon watershed illustrated how the proposed framework can be used to analyze the impacts of climate change and urbanization in terms of flood control, water security and water quality. The evaluation criteria were the variations of flow and pollutant concentration duration curves. In this study, nine scenarios including three climate (present condition, A1B and A2) and three urbanization scenarios were analyzed using HSPF model. As a result, climate change is a large influence on the flowrate and the urbanization affects the pollutant concentration. Therefore, the impacts of both climate change and urbanization must be included into the watershed management and water resources planning for sustainable development.

On Climatic Characteristics in the East Asian Seas by satellite data(NOAA, Topex/Poseidon) (위성자료(NOAA, Topex/Poseidon)를 이용한 한반도 주변해역의 기후적 특성)

  • 윤홍주
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.423-429
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    • 2001
  • Satellite data, with sea surface temperature(557) by NOAA and sea level(SL) by Topex/poseidon, are used to estimate characteristics on the variations and correlations of 557 and SL in the East Asian Seas from January 1993 through May 1998. We found that there are two climatic characteristics in the East Asian seas the oceanic climate, the eastern sea of Japan, and the continental climate, the eastern sea of China, respectively. In the oceanic climate, the variations of SL have the high values in the main current of Kuroshio and the variations of 557 have not the remarkable seasonal variations because of the continuos compensation of warm current by Kuroshio. In the continental climate, SL has high variations in the estuaries(the Yellow River, the Yangtze River) with the mixing the fresh water and the saline water in the coasts of continent and 557 has highly the seasonal variations due to the climatic effect of continents. In the steric variations of summer, the eastern sea of Japan, the East China Sea and the western sod of Korea is increased the sea level about 10~20cm. But the Bohai bay in China have relatively the high values about 20~30cm due to the continental climate. generally the trends of SST and SL increased during all periods. That is say, the slopes of 557 and SL Is presented 0.29$^{\circ}C$/year and 0.84cm/year, respectively. The annual and semi-annual amplitudes have a remarkable variations in the western sea of Korea and the eastern sea of Japan. In the case of the annual peaks, there appeared mainly In the western sea of Korea and the eastern sea of .Japan because of the remarkable variations of SL associated with Kuroshio. But in the case of the semi-annual peaks, there appeared in the eastern sea of Japan by the influence of current, and in the western sea of Korea by the influence of seasonal temperature, respectively. From our results, it should be believed that 557 and SL gradually Increase in the East Asian seas concerning to the global warming. So that, it should be requested In the international co-operation against In the change of the abnormal climate.

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Application Evaluation of Best Management Practices for Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution using Delphi Survey Method (전문가 델파이 방법을 이용한 농업 비점오염 저감 기술의 현장 적용성 조사)

  • Kim, Min-Kyeong;Jung, Goo-Bok;Kim, Min-Young;Kim, Myung-Hyun;Cho, Kwang-Jin;Choi, Soon-Kun;Hong, Seong-Chang;So, Kyu-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.144-147
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    • 2014
  • BACKGROUND: It is essential to prioritize the exact and clear understanding of agricultural nonpoint source pollution (NPS) controls. The realistic policies and systems should also be developed based on this understanding. Therefore, this study aimed to present agricultural Best Management Practices (BMPs) applicable for the fields based on the Delphi survey result. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study deduced the evaluation items to assess each BMP for agricultural NPS control and conducted the surveying using the Delphi method based on agricultural BMP experts. In addition, its on-the-spot application were evaluated. Considering its importance, technical, social and economic proprieties showed that political support was ranked first and followed by cost investment, labor investment, reduction effect and resident participation. The survey findings by agricultural BMP experts showed the good performance of on-the-spot application can be achieved from fertilization by soil testing, residue and green manure application and contour plowing which are applicable within a field. Agricultural BMPs, highly applicable for the fields, were the countermeasures that farmers who are the principal bodies of agricultural NPS control could be participated directly. CONCLUSION: The active participation of farmers is essential for effective control of agricultural NPS. It is necessary to establish various incentive systems.

A Experimental Study on the Performance of Climate Control Seats Using the Discharge Port of the Shape of Nozzle (노즐 형태의 토출구를 이용한 냉난방 시트 성능에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • Jung, Jung-Hoon;Kim, Sung-Chul;Won, Jong-Phil;Noh, Sang-Ho;Cho, Yong-Seok
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.110-116
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    • 2009
  • Research for climate control seats is being vigorously pursued because requests for passenger's thermal comfort are increasing. Recently, thermoelectric devices have been applied to automotive seats for both cooling and heating operations. The climate control seats using thermoelectric devices can rapidly control the air temperature passing through the devices and directly affect the thermal comfort of passengers. The performance characteristics of the climate control seats were analyzed by experiments for two different types of a leather covered seat and a mesh applied seat. Experimental results show that the cooling and heating performance for the mesh applied seat by using the discharge port of the shape of nozzle was improved significantly in comparison with that for the leather covered seat. The variation of temperature between the inlet air and the outlet air of the climate control seat for the enhanced mesh applied type was by $-3.5^{\circ}C$ at cooling mode, and was by $15.0^{\circ}C$ at heating mode, after about 30 minutes, respectively. Also, it is possible to provide rapid thermal comfort to passengers sitting on the seat in the vehicle cabin by using the proposed climate control seat.

Local Adaptation Plan to Climate Change Impact in Seoul: Focused on Heat Wave Effects (서울시 기후변화 영향평가 및 적응대책 수립: 폭염영향을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Eunyoung;Jeon, Seong-Woo;Lee, Jung-Won;Park, Yong-Ha;Lee, Dong-Kun
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2012
  • Against the backdrop of the clear impact of climate change, it has become essential to analyze the influence of climate change and relevant vulnerabilities. This research involved evaluating the impact of heat waves in Seoul, from among many local autonomous bodies that are responsible for implementing measures on adapting to climate change. To carry out the evaluation, the A1B scenario was used to forecast future temperature levels. Future climate scenario results were downscaled to $1km{\times}1km$ to result in the incorporation of regional characteristics. In assessing the influence of heat waves on people-especially the excess mortality-we analyzed critical temperature levels that affect excess mortality and came up with the excess mortality. Results of this evaluation on the impact of climate change and vulnerabilities indicate that the number of days on which the daily average temperature reaches $28.1^{\circ}C$-the critical temperature for excess mortality-in Seoul will sharply increase in the 2050s and 2090s. The highest level of impact will be in the month of August. The most affected areas in the summer will be Songpa-gu, Gangnam-gu, and Yeongdeungpo-gu. These areas have a high concentration of residences which means that heat island effects are one of the reasons for the high level of impact. The excess mortality from heat waves is expected to be at least five times the current figure in 2090. Adaptation plan needs to be made on drawing up long-term adaptation measures as well as implementing short-term measures to minimize or adapt the impact of climate change.

Application of Land Initialization and its Impact in KMA's Operational Climate Prediction System (현업 기후예측시스템에서의 지면초기화 적용에 따른 예측 민감도 분석)

  • Lim, Somin;Hyun, Yu-Kyung;Ji, Heesook;Lee, Johan
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.327-340
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the impact of soil moisture initialization in GloSea5, the operational climate prediction system of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), has been investigated for the period of 1991~2010. To overcome the large uncertainties of soil moisture in the reanalysis, JRA55 reanalysis and CMAP precipitation were used as input of JULES land surface model and produced soil moisture initial field. Overall, both mean and variability were initialized drier and smaller than before, and the changes in the surface temperature and pressure in boreal summer and winter were examined using ensemble prediction data. More realistic soil moisture had a significant impact, especially within 2 months. The decreasing (increasing) soil moisture induced increases (decreases) of temperature and decreases (increases) of sea-level pressure in boreal summer and its impacts were maintained for 3~4 months. During the boreal winter, its effect was less significant than in boreal summer and maintained for about 2 months. On the other hand, the changes of surface temperature were more noticeable in the southern hemisphere, and the relationship between temperature and soil moisture was the same as the boreal summer. It has been noted that the impact of land initialization is more evident in the summer hemispheres, and this is expected to improve the simulation of summer heat wave in the KMA's operational climate prediction system.

The Effects of Secondary School Teachers' Efforts on Instructional Improvement on Teacher Efficacy: Focused on Comparison among Types of School Climate (중등교사의 수업개선 노력이 교사 효능감에 미치는 영향: 학교풍토 유형 간 비교를 중심으로)

  • Choi, Won Seok;Kil, Hyeji
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.472-483
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    • 2019
  • This study purposed to analyze how teacher experience of instructional change (EIC), teacher morale (TM), and school climate (SC) mediate or moderate the relationship between teacher efforts on instructional improvement (EII) and teacher efficacy (TE). For the purpose, the 6th year data of Gyeonggi Education Panel Study (GEPS) which was administered in 2017 for the 9th grade students and their teachers from 197 middle schools in Gyeonggi Province was used. As results, the mediation effects of EIC on the link between EII and TE was found only under the innovative climate. The moderation effects of TM on the connection between EIC and TE were appeared in both of the permissive and the innovative climate. Finally, the moderated mediation effects of the TM in the innovative climate were bigger rather than in the permissive climate.

Projecting forest fire potential in the Baekdudaegan of the Chungcheong region under the SSP scenario climate change using KBDI Drought Index (KBDI 가뭄지수를 이용한 SSP 기후변화 시나리오하의 충청지역 백두대간 산불 잠재력 전망)

  • Choi, Jaeyong;Kim, Su-Jin;Jung, Huicheul;Kim, Sung-Yeol;Moon, Geon-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2022
  • Recently, climate change has been regarded as a major cause of large-scale forest fires worldwide, and there is concern that more frequent and severe forest fires will occur due to the level of greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the daily Keetch and Byram Drought Index (KBDI) of the Baekdudaegan in Chungcheong region including Sobaeksan, Songnisan, and Woraksan National Parks were calculated to assess effect of climate change on the forest fire potential- severity of annual maximum KBDI and frequency of high KBDI days. The present (2000~2019) and future KBDI(2021~2040, 2041~2060, 2081~2090) were calculated based on the meteorological observation and the ensemble regional climate model of the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios with a spatial resolution of 1-km provided by Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, 6.5℃ increase and 14% precipitation increase are expected at the end of the 21st century. The severity of maximum daily KBDI increases by 48% (+50mm), and the frequency of high KBDI days (> 100 KBDI) increases more than 100 days, which means the high potential for serious forest fires. The analysis results showed that Songnisan National Park has the highest potential for forest fire risk and will continue to be high in intensity and frequency in the future. It is expected that the forest vulnerability of the Baekdudaegan in the Chungcheong region will greatly increase and the difficulty in preventing and suppressing forest fires will increase as the abundance of combustible materials increases along with climate changes.