• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.249-258
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• 2006

Impacts of global warming have been identified in many areas including natural ecosystem. A good number of studies based on climate models forecasting future climate have been conducted in many countries worldwide. Due to its global coverage, GCM, which is a most frequently used climate model, has limits to apply to Korea with such a narrower and complicated terrain. Therefore, it is necessary to perform a study impact assessment of climate changes with a climate model fully reflecting characteristics of Korean climate. In this respect, this study was designed to compare and analyze the GCM and RCM in order to determine a suitable climate model for Korea. In this study, spatial scope was Korea for 10 years from 1981 to 1990. As a research method, current climate was estimated on the basis of the data obtained from observation at the GHCN. Future climate was forecast using 4 GCMs furnished by the IPCC among SRES A2 Scenario as well as the RCM received from the NIES of Japan. Pearson correlation analysis was conducted for the purpose of comparing data obtained from observation with GCM and RCM. As a result of this study, average annual temperature of Korea between 1981 and 1990 was found to be around $12.03^{\circ}C$, with average daily rainfall being 2.72mm. Under the GCM, average annual temperature was between 10.22 and $16.86^{\circ}C$, with average daily rainfall between 2.13 and 3.35mm. Average annual temperature in the RCM was identified $12.56^{\circ}C$, with average daily rainfall of 5.01mm. In the comparison of the data obtained from observation with GCM and RCM, RCMs of both temperature and rainfall were found to well reflect characteristics of Korea's climate. This study is important mainly in that as a preliminary study to examine impact of climate changes such as global warming it chose appropriate climate model for our country. These results of the study showed that future climate produced under similar conditions with actual ones may be applied for various areas in many ways.

• Atmosphere
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.141-154
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• 2020

Seasonal forecast is growing in demand, as it provides valuable information for decision making and potential to reduce impact on weather events. This study examines how operational climate prediction systems can be reliable, producing the probability forecast in seasonal scale. A reliability diagram was used, which is a tool for the reliability by comparing probabilities with the corresponding observed frequency. It is proposed for a method grading scales of 1-5 based on the reliability diagram to quantify the reliability. Probabilities are derived from ensemble members using hindcast data. The analysis is focused on skill for 2 m temperature and precipitation from climate prediction systems in KMA, UKMO, and ECMWF, NCEP and JMA. Five categorizations are found depending on variables, seasons and regions. The probability forecast for 2 m temperature can be relied on while that for precipitation is reliable only in few regions. The probabilistic skill in KMA and UKMO is comparable with ECMWF, and the reliabilities tend to increase as the ensemble size and hindcast period increasing.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.103-115
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• 2018

The uncertainty of climate scenarios, as initial information, is one of the significant factors among uncertainties of climate change impacts and vulnerability assessments. In this sense, the quantification of the uncertainty of climate scenarios is essential to understanding these assessments of impacts and vulnerability for adaptation to climate change. Here we quantified the precision of surface temperature of ensemble scenarios (high resolution (1km) RCP4.5 and 8.5) provided by Korea Meteorological Administration, with spatiotemporal variation of the standard deviation of them. From 2021 to 2050, the annual increase rate of RCP8.5 was higher than that of RCP4.5 while the annual variation of RCP8.5 was lower than that of RCP4.5. The standard deviations of ensemble scenarios are higher in summer and winter, particularly in July and January, when the extreme weather events could occur. In general, the uncertainty of ensemble scenarios in summer were lower than those in winter. In spatial distribution, the standard deviation of ensemble scenarios in Seoul Metropolitan Area is relatively higher than other provinces, while that of Yeongnam area is lower than other provinces. In winter, the standard deviations of ensemble scenarios of RCP4.5 and 8.5 in January are higher than those of December. Especially, the standard deviation of ensemble scenarios is higher in the central regions including Gyeonggi, and Gangwon, where the mean surface temperature is lower than southern regions along with Chungbuk. Such differences in precisions of climate ensemble scenarios imply that those uncertainty information should be taken into account for the implementation of national climate change policy.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.57 no.2
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• pp.177-185
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• 2024

We developed a regional ocean climate model using dynamic downscaling in the Northwest Pacific Ocean to build a climate model for the Korean Peninsula. The past marine environment was reproduced through historical simulations, and the future marine environment in 2100 was predicted according to the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) climate change scenario. The future sea surface temperature of the Korean seas is predicted to rise about 1-4℃, and the increase in water temperature in the East Sea is expected to be the largest. The National Institute of Fisheries Science has monitored abnormal seawater temperatures such as high and low seawater temperatures in coastal and inland waters, and predicted that the number of high seawater temperature days in the East, West, South Sea, and the coast of Jeju Island will increase in the future. In addition, the occurrence of Ciguatera fish poison plankton around Jeju Island was projected to increase. This study is expected to provide accurate forecasting information for fishery issues. The aim of this study was to analyze future ocean environment changes around the Korean Peninsula using climate change SSP scenarios and predict fisheries issues through future projections of the regional ocean climate model.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.17-25
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• 1977

For four calender years (1971-1974), daily observations of weather conditions (air temperature, humidity, wind speed, wind direction, cloud amount, fog, precipitation etc.) at six stations in the north western Pacific Ocean are used to calculate mean monthly values and to check extra-conditions. At Petropavlosk and Miko'skoe, where indicate the characteristics of modified continental climate, the temperature and humidity are high in summer, and Iow in winter. At A Dak and She Mya, where indicate the characteristics of warm current type maritime climate, humidity is high in all season and annual range of air temperature is nearly negligible. At Simusir and Vasi!' eva, where indicate the characteristics of cold current type maritime climate, humidity is high in all season and annual range of air temperature is $15^{\circ}C.$ As dry cooling power is relatively high in winter, working condition on deck is bad. Most of fogs are advection fog in the area of cold current type climate in summer.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.357-371
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• 2016

Buildings in the city acts as a cause of distorted wind direction, wind speed, causing the stagnation of the air flow. In the recent trend of climate change can not but consider the temperature rise of the urbanization. This study was aimed to analyze the thermal comfort of planetary boundary layer in different artificial constructions areas which has a direct impact on urban climate, and estimating the warming phenomena. Envi-met model was used to consider the urban structure associated with urban growth in order to precisely determine the impact of the building on the city weather condition. The analyzed values of thermal comfort index were temperature, wind speed, horizontal and vertical turbulent diffusivity. In particular, analysis of the PPD(Predicted Percentage of Dissatisfied) represents the human thermal comfort. In this study, by adjusting the arrangement and proportion of the top floor building in the urban it was found that the inflow of the fresh air and cooling can be derived low PPD. Vertical heat flux amount of the city caused by climate change was a factor to form a high potential temperature in the city and the accumulation of cold air does not appear near the surface. Based on this, to make the city effectively respond to climate change may require a long-term restructuring of urban spatial structure and density management.

• Atmosphere
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.107-125
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• 2009

Statistical downscaled surface temperature datasets by employing the cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) analysis and multiple linear regression method are examined. For evaluating the efficiency of this statistical downscaling method, monthly surface temperature of the ECMWF has been downscaled into monthly temperature having a fine spatial scale of ~20km over the Korean peninsula for the 1973-2000 period. Monthly surface temperature of the ECHOG has also been downscaled into the same spatial scale data for the same period. Comparisons of temperatures between two datasets over the Korean peninsula show that annual mean temperature of the ECMWF is about $2^{\circ}C$ higher than that of the ECHOG. After applying to the statistical downscaling method, the difference of two annual mean temperatures reduces less than $1^{\circ}C$ and their spatial patterns become even close to each other. Future downscaled data shows that annual temperatures in the A1B scenario will increase by $3.5^{\circ}C$ by the late 21st century. The downscaled data are influenced by the ECHOG as well as observation data which includes effects of complicated topography and the heat island.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.507-512
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• 2016

This study was conducted to classify agroclimatic zones in South Korea. To classify the agroclimatic zones, such climatic factors as amount of rainfall from April to May, amount of rainfall in October, monthly average air temperature in January, monthly average air temperature from April to May, monthly average air temperature from April to September, monthly average air temperature from December to March, monthly minimum air temperature in January, monthly minimum air temperature from April to May, Warmth Index were considered as major influencing factors on the crop growth. Climatic factors were computed from monthly air temperature and precipitation of climatological normal year (1981~2010) at 1 km grid cell estimated from a geospatial climate interpolation method. The agroclimatic zones using k-means cluster analysis method were classified into 6 zones.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.55 no.4
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• pp.341-351
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• 2022

The physiological characteristics, growth, and yield of each regional rice variety ('Odaebyeo', 'Saechucheong', 'Ilmibyeo') were investigated depending on the impact of changes in temperature and CO₂ concentration. Experiments were conducted with a control group, which reflected atmospheric CO₂ concentration and temperature, and treatment groups, in which the CO₂ concentration and temperature were increased by 250 ppm and 2.0℃ from those in the control group. The results showed that the increase in CO₂ concentration and temperature reduced the growth and yield of the rice 'Odaebyeo', but did not substantially change the productivity of the 'Saechucheong' and 'Ilmibyeo'. The increase in CO₂ concentration and temperature increased stomatal conductance and rate of transpiration of the 'Odaebyeo' variety, thereby decreasing its water use efficiency (WUE). In contrast, the increase in CO₂ concentration and temperature increased the photosynthetic rate and WUE of the 'Saechucheong' and 'Ilmibyeo' varieties. The gradual change in climate is considered to directly affect growth and development of rice and diversely affect the productivity of each variety. Therefore, it is necessary to implement technological development, select regionally optimal rice varieties, develop new rice varieties, as well as conduct long-term monitoring of each rice variety for climate adaptation to counter global warming.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.49-60
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• 2004

Northern Gyeonggi Province(NGP), consisting of 3 counties, is the northernmost region in South Korea adjacent to the de-militarized zone with North Korea. To supplement insufficient spatial coverage of official climate data and climate atlases based on those data, high-resolution digital climate models(DCM) were prepared to support weather- related activities of residents in NGP Monthly climate data from 51 synoptic stations across both North and South Korea were collected for 1981-2000. A digital elevation model(DEM) for this region with 30m cell spacing was used with the climate data for spatially interpolating daily maximum and minimum temperatures, solar irradiance, and precipitation based on relevant topoclimatological models. For daily minimum temperature, a spatial interpolation scheme accommodating the potential influences of cold air accumulation and the temperature inversion was used. For daily maximum temperature estimation, a spatial interpolation model loaded with the overheating index was used. Daily solar irradiances over sloping surfaces were estimated from nearby synoptic station data weighted by potential relative radiation, which is the hourly sum of relative solar intensity. Precipitation was assumed to increase with the difference between virtual terrain elevation and the DEM multiplied by an observed rate. Validations were carried out by installing an observation network specifically for making comparisons with the spatially estimated temperature pattern. Freezing risk in January was estimated for major fruit tree species based on the DCMs under the recurrence intervals of 10, 30, and 100 years, respectively. Frost risks at bud-burst and blossom of tree flowers were also estimated for the same resolution as the DCMs.