• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.46 no.8
• /
• pp.807-819
• /
• 2013

This study proposes a new methodology for future water balance projection considering climate change by assigning a weight to each scenario instead of inputting future streamflows based on GCMs into a water balance model directly. K-nearest neighbor algorithm was employed to assign weights and streamflows in non-flood period (October to the following June) was selected as the criterion for assigning weights. GCM-driven precipitation was input to TANK model to simulate future streamflow scenarios and Quantile Mapping was applied to correct bias between GCM hindcast and historical data. Based on these bias-corrected streamflows, different weights were assigned to each streamflow scenarios to calculate water shortage for the projection periods; 2020s (2010~2039), 2050s (2040~2069), and 2080s (2070~2099). As a result by applying the proposed methodology to project water shortage over the Korean Peninsula, average water shortage for 2020s is projected to increase to 10~32% comparing to the basis (1967~2003). In addition, according to getting decreased in streamflows in non-flood period gradually by 2080s, average water shortage for 2080s is projected to increase up to 97% (516.5 million $m^3/yr$) as maximum comparing to the basis. While the existing research on climate change gives radical increase in future water shortage, the results projected by the weighting method shows conservative change. This study has significance in the applicability of water balance projection regarding climate change, keeping the existing framework of national water resources planning and this lessens the confusion for decision-makers in water sectors.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.53 no.6
• /
• pp.427-436
• /
• 2020

It is uncertain how global climate change will influence future drought characteristics over the Korean peninsula. This study aims to project the future droughts using climate change and land use change scenarios over the Korean peninsula with the land surface modeling system, i.e., Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro). The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 are used as future climate scenarios and the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), specifically SSP2, is adopted for the land use scenario. The using Threshold Level Method (TLM), we identify future hydrological and ecological drought events with runoff and Net Primary Productivity (NPP), respectively, and assess drought characteristics of durations and intensities in different scenarios. Results show that the duration of drought is longer over RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future (2031-2050) and RCP8.5-SSP2 (2080-2099) for the far future for hydrological drought. On the other hand, RCP2.6-SSP2 for the far future and RCP8.5-SSP2 for the near future show longer duration for ecological drought. In addition, the drought intensities in both hydrological and ecological drought show different characteristics with the drought duration. The intensity of the hydrological droughts was greatly affected by threshold level methods and RCP2.6-SSP2 for far future shows the severest intensity. However, for ecological drought, the difference of the intensity among the threshold level is not significant and RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future and RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future show the severest intensity. This study suggests a possible future drought characteristics is in the Korea peninsula using combined climate and land use changes, which will help the community to understand and manage the future drought risks.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
• /
• v.106 no.1
• /
• pp.77-86
• /
• 2017

This study was conducted to analyze the relationship among climatic factors and radial growth of Pinus densiflora and Larix kaempferi in South Korea. To determine the climate-growth relationship, cluster analysis was applied to group surveyed regions by the climatical similarity, and a dendroclimatological model was developed to predict radial growth for each climate group under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for greenhouse gases. The cluster analysis showed four climatic clusters (Cluster 1~4) from 10 regions for P. densiflora and L. kaempferi. The dendroclimatological model was developed through climatic variables and standardized residual chronology for each climatic cluster of P. densiflora and L. kaempferi. Four climatic variables were used in the models for P. densiflora ($R^2$ values between 0.38 to 0.58). Two to five climatic variables were used in the models for L. kaempferi ($R^2$ values between 0.31 to 0.43). The growth simulations with two RCP climate-change scenarios(RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used for growth prediction. The radial growth of the Cluster 4 of P. densiflora, the mountainous region at high elevation, tend to increase, while those of cluster 2 and 3 of P. densiflora, the region of the hightest average temperature, tends to decrease. The radial growth of the Cluster 1 of L. kaempferi the region of the lowest minimum temperature, while that of Cluster 2, the region of the highest average temperature, tends to decrease. The radial growth of Cluster 3 of L. kaempferi, the region in the east coast and Cluster 4, the region at high elevation, tends to hold steady. The results of this study are expected to provide valuable information necessary for predicting changes in radial growth of Pinus densiflora and Larix kaempferi caused by climate change.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• /
• v.23 no.4
• /
• pp.235-250
• /
• 2021

The overarching question of this study is how a typical rice cultivation system in Gimje, Korea was keeping up with the triple-win challenge of climate-smart agriculture (CSA). To answer this question, we have employed (1) quantitative data from direct measurement of energy, water, carbon and information flows in and out of a rice cultivation system and (2) appropriate metrics to assess production, efficiency, GHG fluxes, and resilience. The study site was one of the Korean Network of Flux measurement (KoFlux) sites (i.e., GRK) located at Gimje, Korea, managed by National Academy of Agricultural Science, Rural Development Administration. Fluxes of energy, water, carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) were directly measured using eddy-covariance technique during the growing seasons of 2011, 2012 and 2014. The production indicators include gross primary productivity (GPP), grain yield, light use efficiency (LUE), water use efficiency (WUE), and carbon uptake efficiency (CUE). The GHG mitigation was assessed with indicators such as fluxes of carbon dioxide (F_CO2), methane (F_CH4), and nitrous oxide (F_N2O). Resilience was assessed in terms of self-organization (S), using information-theoretic approach. Overall, the results demonstrated that the rice cultivation system at GRK was climate-smart in 2011 in a relative sense but failed to maintain in the following years. Resilience was high and changed little for three year. However, the apparent competing goals or trade-offs between productivity and GHG mitigation were found within individual years as well as between the years, causing difficulties in achieving the triple-win scenario. The pursuit of CSA requires for stakeholders to prioritize their goals (i.e., governance) and to practice opportune interventions (i.e., management) based on the feedback from real-time assessment of the CSA indicators (i.e., monitoring) - i.e., a purpose-driven visioneering.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
• /
• v.26 no.2
• /
• pp.68-81
• /
• 2023

This study aims to establish a scenario based on the spacing and arrangement of the roadside trees to reduce heat waves and fine dust in cities that occurred during the urbanization process and to quantitatively analyze the degree of reduction. The ENVI-met 5.0.2v model, a micro-climate simulation program, was used to analyze the degree of improvement in the thermal environment and fine dust according to the roadside tree scenario. As a result of temperature analysis according to street tree spacing, the narrower the distance between roadside trees, the lower the temperature during the day as the number of planted trees increased, and a similar pattern was shown regardless of the distance between roadside trees in the morning and evening. In the case of fine dust emitted from the road, the concentration of fine dust increased slightly due to the increase in roadside trees, but the concentration of sidewalks where people walk increased slightly or there was no difference because of blocking fine dust on trees. The temperature according to the arrangement of street trees tended to decrease as the number of planted trees increased as the arrangement increased. However, not only the amount of trees but also the crown projected area was judged to have a significant impact on the temperature reduction because the temperature reduction was greater in the scenario of planting the same amount of trees and widening the interval of arrangement. In terms of the arrangement, the fine dust concentration showed a difference from the results according to the interval, suggesting that the fine dust concentration may change depending on the relationship between the main wind direction and the tree planting direction. By quantitatively analyzing the degree of thermal environment and fine dust improvement caused by roadside trees, this study is expected to promote policies and projects to improve the roadside environment efficiently, such as a basic plan for roadside trees and a project for wind corridor forests.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
• /
• v.96 no.3
• /
• pp.235-244
• /
• 2007

Potentials of AR CDM project in North Korea are assessed and feasible land area for AR CDM project is estimated. According to our estimation, There could be 515,000 hectares of forest lands deforested before 1990 in North Korea and 8,854 hectares at the regional level of Gae-sung City, which are eligible for AR CDM project, based on researches of satellite image analyses conducted from 1980's to 1990's. A baseline scenario assumed 44.73 tones of carbon stored in soil per hectare with no vegetation above ground remained during the project period following the default value of IPCC's Good Practice Guidance for LULUCF considering soil structure, climate and land use of the project area. The scenario also assumes that black rocust (Robinia pseudoacacia) is planted and the CDM project is implemented for 20 years. The costs for producing greenhouse gases CER (certified emission reduction) credits include costs of tree planting and forest management, and costs of project negotiation and transactions for issuing the credits. It is estimated that 376 tones of carbon dioxide per hectare can be accumulated and 503 temporary CER credits per hectare and 265 long-term CER credits per hectare could be produced during the project period. It is estimated to cost US$ 4.04 and US$ 7.67 to provide one unit of temporary credit and long-term credit, respectively. These values can be regarded as the cost of conferring emission commitment of a country or a private entity. However, it is not clear which option is better economically because the replacement periods are different in these two cases.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
• /
• v.19 no.1
• /
• pp.1-8
• /
• 2013

In this paper, we predicted sea-level rise for RCP 4scenarios(RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5). To calculate sea-level rise, a semi-empirical method was used and it needs atmospheric temperature rise for each scenario. According to the results, the sea-level has been rising steadily in all scenarios. By 2050 the maximum difference of sea-level rise between the scenarios was within 0.08 m, but its difference was showed more than 0.5 m in 2100. The values of sea-level rise for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5 scenarios are 0.87 m, 1.21 m, 1.02 m, 1.36 m, respectively. In the case of RCP 8.5, the slope of atmospheric temperature rise since 2060 was very steep compared to the other scenarios so that the maximum difference of sea-level rise between the scenarios will be much larger after 2100. Estimated by a simple approximation, the maximum difference of sea-level rise can be more than 1.2 m in 2120.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.31 no.2D
• /
• pp.267-274
• /
• 2011

In this study, around Jeju area where climatic change is most considerably appearing in Han Peninsula, we prepared sea level rise height caused by sea level rise (Seogwipo 5.6 mm/yr, Jeju 5.3 mm/yr) and a sea level rise scenario for the case when an enlarged typhoon attacks during high water ordinary spring tide, and evaluated flooding area and effect on road and facility using Digital Elevation Model(DEM) and GIS Spatial Analysis Technique. As a result, the flooding areas were shown to be 2.9 $km^2$ in 2040, 5.4 $km^2$ in 2070, and maximum 5.4 $km^2$ in 2100. Analyzing the effect of flooding on each type of road, the local roads(Gun-do) were shown to be mostly affected. The most flood effected facilities were individual houses. Especially, as there is a possibility for casualties to occur due to disaster in Hwabuk-dong because the effect of flooding on individual houses in this area was shown to be high. In addition, flood on port facilities will considerably affect logistic and marine activities. This study is thought to be a basic data which can be utilized for establishment of strategic coping measures and policies of government affiliated organizations through analysis of effect of sea level rise on construction field.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.51 no.7
• /
• pp.617-627
• /
• 2018

In this study, CMIP5 GCMs rainfall data (2011~2099) based on RCP scenarios were used to analyze the extreme drought evaluation for the future period. For prospective drought assessment, historical observations were used based on the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) data (1976~2010) of the Korea Meteorological Administration. Through the analysis of various indicators, such as average annual rainfall, rainy days, drought spell, and average drought severity was carried out for the drought evaluation of the five major river basins (Han river, Nakdong river, Geum river, Sumjin river, and Youngsan river) over the Korean peninsula. The GCMs that predicted the most severe future droughts are CMCC-CMS, IPSL-CM5A-LR and IPSL-CM5A-MR. Moderate future droughts were predicted from HadGEM2-CC, CMCC-CM and HadGEM2-ES. GCMs with relatively weak future drought forecasts were selected as CESM1-CAM5, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and CanESM2. The results of this study might be used as a fundamental data to choose a reasonable climate change scenario in future extreme drought evaluation.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• /
• v.14 no.4
• /
• pp.207-221
• /
• 2012

Air temperature in Korea has increased by $1.5^{\circ}C$ over the last 100 years, which is nearly twice the global average rate during the same period. Moreover, it is projected that such change in temperature will continue in the 21st century. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential impacts of future climate change on the rice production and adaptation methods in Korea. Climate data for the baseline (1971~2000) and the three future climate (2011~2040, 2041~2070, and 2071~2100) at fifty six sites in South Korea under IPCC SRES A1B scenario were used as the input to the rice crop model ORYZA2000. Six experimental schemes were carried out to evaluate the combined effects of climatic warming, $CO_2$ fertilization, and cropping season on rice production. We found that the average production in 2071~2100 would decrease by 23%, 27%, and 29% for early, middle, and middle-late rice maturing type, respectively, when cropping seasons were fixed. In contrast, predicted yield reduction was ~0%, 6%, and 7%, for early, middle, and middle-late rice maturing type, respectively, when cropping seasons were changed. Analysis of variation suggested that climatic warming, $CO_2$ fertilization, cropping season, and rice maturing type contributed 60, 10, 12, and 2% of rice yield, respectively. In addition, regression analysis suggested 14~46 and 53~86% of variations in rice yield were explained by grain number and filled grain ratio, respectively, when cropping season was fixed. On the other hand, 46~78 and 22~53% of variations were explained respectively with changing cropping season. It was projected that sterility caused by high temperature would have no effect on rice yield. As a result, rice yield reduction in the future climate in Korea would resulted from low filled grain ratio due to high growing temperature during grain-filling period because the $CO_2$ fertilization was insufficient to negate the negative effect of climatic warming. However, adjusting cropping seasons to future climate change may alleviate the rice production reduction by minimizing negative effect of climatic warming without altering positive effect of $CO_2$ fertilization, which improves weather condition during the grain-filling period.