• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.2B
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• pp.137-147
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• 2010

In this study, Chukwooki and modern data were compared using annual maximum rainfall event series. Annual maximum series for specified rainfall duration in modern frequency analysis can not be constructed from Chukwooki data, so the concept of independent rainfall event is introduced to compare Chukwooki and modern data. Annual maximum rainfall event is determined by applying the bivariate exponential distribution and the parameters estimated annually are selected. The results using the annual parameter show that the hydrological meaning of the parameters is related to the variation of annual total rainfall amounts. For the whole independent rainfall events, the total rainfall and the rainfall intensity of Chukwooki data are greater than those of modern data, and rainfall duration of the two periods is similar. However modern annual maximum rainfall events show different characteristics that rainfall duration is much longer, rainfall intensity is similar and the total rainfall is greater than those of Chukwooki period. The increasing trend of rainfall duration and total rainfall of the modern annual rainfall events may be regarded as the one of components of the long-term cycle.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.5B
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• pp.409-417
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• 2009

In this study it was assessed the accuracy of the Chukwooki rainfall data in Seoul by comparing with tree-ring width index data, sunspot numbers, southern oscillation index (SOI) and global temperature anomaly. And it was investigated the correlations of climatic change and change characteristics in past north-east asia by comparisons of tree-ring width index data in near Korea. The results of this study shows that Chukwooki rainfall data has the strong reliance since the trends and depths of change are very well matched with other comparative data. And with the results by compared with tree-ring width index data in six sites of near Korea, climates of north-east asia are changed with strong correlations as being temporal and spatial and longterm periodic possibility of reproducing are exist on those changes. However characteristics of climate change post 1960 A.D. are investigated as represented differently to past although statistical moving characteristics or changing criterion are within the limitations of reproducing phase in the past since they represent the different trends and irregularity and their frequencies are increase. The results of this study are widely used on long-term forecasting for climate change in north-east asia.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.29-35
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• 2009

In this study, quantitative homogeneity analysis was performed between rainfall observation data set of Chukwooki(CWK) and rainfall observation data set of modern rain gage(MRG) using statistical methods such as basic statistics, K-S test and Boxplots. To analyze the homogeneities of CWK and MRG four rainfall characteristic series such as monthly rainfall, the ratio of maximum daily rainfall to monthly rainfall, number of rainy days for each month, and the ratio of monthly rainfall to numbers of rainy days are made, and the homogeneity tests using two sample K-S test and quantitative comparisons were performed. The test results showed that observation precisions between CWK and MRG of original data set(M00) were differed because M00 clearly showed the statistical significances on differences of numbers of monthly rainy days of CWK and MRG. But, rainfall showed a little differences which were not significant between CWK and MRG.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.7
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• pp.645-655
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• 2010

In this study, occurrences of relative probabilistic changing points between Chukwooki rainfall data (CWK) and modern rain gage data (MRG) were analyzed using Barry and Hartigan (BH) Bayesian changing points estimation method which estimated the changing points by calculation of change probabilities at each point. Since any natural phenomenon cannot be simulated identically and perfectly, a statistical method which can not consider the sequential order has its limitation on prediction of a specific time of occurrence. In this respect, Homogeneity analysis between CWK and MRG was performed through the occurrence investigation of relative probabilistic changing points for four rainfall characteristics of data sets using BH bayesian model which estimate the change point by calculating the relative probabilities in each data points. The results show that statistical characteristics of CWK are not different significantly from MRG, even though considered that there may be little quantitative difference CWK and MRG caused from limitation of measurement accuracy of CWK.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.10
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• pp.795-807
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• 2009

In this study, homogeneity analysis was performed between rainfall observation data set of Chukwooki (CWK) and rainfall observation data set of modern rain gage (MRG) using Bootstrap method. Since traditional statistical homogeneity test method are validated only when distribution of their population is known, meteorological data which their statistical distributions of population are complicated were difficult to verify the homogeneity and there were plenty of room for doubt for their statistical significance using historical method. In this reason, in this study homogeneity test was evaluated between two data sets using bootstrap method which is not necessary to infer distribution of population. The test results show that there was an statistical homogeneity between CWK and MRG except for slight impact of climatical trend.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.40 no.7
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• pp.545-554
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• 2007

This study characterized the storm events recorded in the Annals of Chosun Dynasty and evaluated them using a simple rectangular pulses Poisson process model. Storm events without in detail explanation like Keun-Bi (big rain) were found to have rather short return periods compared to the storm events with lengthy explanation about damages like Keun-Mul (high water), Hong-Soo (flood), and Pok-Woo (torrential rain). Not all storm events recorded were the size of annual maxima, so their return periods were found not to be higher than a certain level. Another noticeable fact is that these storm events recorded seem more sensitive to the storm duration rather than the storm intensity. That is, most storms recorded seem to be focused on long durations rather than high intensities. Those storm events with long durations must have caused serious flood damages, which maybe the critical reason why they were recorded.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.1B
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• pp.1-11
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• 2010

In this study, To analyzed the monthly long-term change characteristics of Chukwooki rainfall data set (CWK) and modern rain gage rainfall data set (MRG), tests of trend or variation were performed of each data sets using five statistical trend or variation test method. furthermore, changing characteristics of rainfall was analyzed through the accomplishment of the 2-dimensional LOWESS regression (or smoothing) which can consider both annual time-variation and inter-monthly time-variation. From the trend test, it is difficult to confirm that given data sets have significant trends. From the 2-dimensional LOWESS analysis for four rainfall characteristics, after near A.D. 1980, inter-monthly variation width in addition to quantative increment of rainfall are increased rapidly and persistently.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.335-343
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• 2007

Drought characteristics need to be preceded before establishing a drought mitigation plan. In this study, using a Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), a hydrologic drought was defined as an event during which the SPIs are continuously below a certain truncation level. Then, a methodology of drought frequency analysis was performed to quantitatively characterize droughts considering drought duration and severity simultaneously. The theory of runs was used to model drought recurrence and to determine drought properties like duration and severity. Short historical records usually do not allow reliable bivariate analyses. However, more than hundred years of precipitation data (1770 ${\sim}$ 1907) collected in Chosun Kingdom Age using an old Korean rain gage called Chukwooki can provide valuable information about past events. It is shown that a bivariate gamma distribution well represented the joint probabilistic properties of Korean drought duration and severity. The overall results of this study show that the proposed bivariate drought frequency analysis overcomes the drawbacks of the conventional univariate frequency analysis by providing a consistent representation of the drought recurrent property.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.51 no.1
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• pp.23-40
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• 2016

In this study, long-term changes in means and extreme events of precipitation during summer rainy period called Changma (late June~early September) are examined based on rainfall data observed by Chukwooki during Joseon Dynasty (1777~1907) and by modern rain-gauge onward (1908~2015) in Seoul, Korea. Also, characterizations of the relevant changes in synoptic climate fields in East Asia are made by the examination of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis I data. Analyses of 239-year time series of precipitation data demonstrate that the total precipitation as well as their inter-annual variability during the entire Changma period (late June~early September) has increased in the late 20th century and onward. Notably, since the early 1990s the means and extreme events during the summer Changma period (late June~mid-July) and Changma break period (late July~early August) has significantly increased, resulting in less clear demarcations of sub-Changma periods. In this regard, comparisons of synoptic climate fields before and after the early 1990s reveal that in recent decades the subtropical high pressure has expanded in the warmer Pacific as the advection of high-latitude air masses toward East Asia was enhanced due to more active northerly wind vector around the high pressure departure core over Mongolia. Consequently, it is suggested that the enhancement of rising motions due to more active confluence of the two different air masses along the northwestern borders of the Pacific might lead to the increases of the means and extreme events of Changma precipitation in Seoul in recent decades.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.9
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• pp.747-758
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• 2009

In this study, long-term variabilities of rainfall-occurrence characteristics are analyzed using rainfall data at Seoul, which is the longest data record existing in world. first, the accuracy of Chukwooki data set (CWK) are evaluated in view of rainfall-occurrence probability by analyzing the transition probabilities and occurrence characteristics based on Markov chain. And long-term inter-monthly variabilities of transition probabilities are analyzed using two dimensional LOWESS regression. From the results of analyzed transition probabilities and occurrence characteristics, it is different that rainfall-occurrence characteristics between CWK and modern rain gage data set (MRG) for original rainfall data sets (M00). For characteristics of rainfall series, occurrences probabilities of rainfall are increased and durations of each rainfall are shorter than past. And from the results of analyzing the long-term inter-monthly variabilities of transition probabilities, in case of M20, lengths of dry spells between CWK and MRG are not different significantly and lengths of wet spells are decreased persistently after A.D. 1830. Especially, decreasing trend for lengths of wet spells at recent september are appeared significantly. These results are considered with increasing trend of recent rainfall, it is concluded that recent frequencies and intensities of rainfall are increasing.