• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.87-98
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• 2022

In recent years, frequent localized heavy rainfalls, which have a lot of rainfall in a short period of time, have been increasingly causing flooding damages. To prevent damage caused by localized heavy rainfalls, Hydrological Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (HQPF) was developed using the Local ENsemble prediction System (LENS) provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and Machine Learning and Probability Matching (PM) techniques using Digital forecast data. HQPF is produced as information on the impact of heavy rainfall to prepare for flooding damage caused by localized heavy rainfalls, but there is a tendency to overestimate the low rainfall intensity. In this study, we improved HQPF by expanding the period of machine learning data, analyzing ensemble techniques, and changing the process of Probability Matching (PM) techniques to improve predictive accuracy and over-predictive propensity of HQPF. In order to evaluate the predictive performance of the improved HQPF, we performed the predictive performance verification on heavy rainfall cases caused by the Changma front from August 27, 2021 to September 3, 2021. We found that the improved HQPF showed a significantly improved prediction accuracy for rainfall below 10 mm, as well as the over-prediction tendency, such as predicting the likelihood of occurrence and rainfall area similar to observation.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.84-91
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• 1996

Heat flux of the East China Sea was estimated with the bulk method, the East China mount based on the marine meteorological data and cloud amount data observed by a satellite. Solar radiation is maximum in May and minimum in December. Its amount decreases gradually southward during the winter half year (from October to March), and increases northward during the summer half year (from April to September) due to the influence of Changma (Baiu) front. The spatial difference of long-wave radiation is relatively small, but its temporal difference is quite large, i.e., the value in February is about two times greater than that in July. The spatial patterns of sensible and latent heat fluxes reflect well the effect of current distribution in this region. The heat loss from the ocean surface is more than $830Wm^{-2}$ in winter, which is five times greater than the net radiation amount during the same period, The annual net heat flux is negative, which means heat loss from the sea surface, in the whole region over the East China Sea. The region with the largest loss of more than $400Wm^{-2}$ in January is observed over the southwestern Kyushu. The annual mean value of solar radiation, long-wave radiation, sensible and latent heat fluxes are estimated $187Wm^{-2},\;-52Wm^{-2},\;-30Wm^{-2}\;and\;-137Wm^{-2}$, respectively, consequently the East China Sea losses the energy of $32Wm^{-2}(2.48\times10^{13}W)$. Through the heat exchange between the air and the sea, the heat energy of $0.4\times10^{13}W$ is supplied from the air to the sea in A region (the Yellow Sea), $2.1\times10^{13}W$ in B region (the East China Sea) and $1.7\times10^{13}W$ in C region (the Kuroshio part), respectively.