• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.301-316
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• 2012

Two models, TANK and SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) were compared for simulating natural flows in the Paldang Dam upstream areas of the Han River basin in order to understand the limitations of TANK and to review the applicability and capability of SWAT. For comparison, simulation results from the previous research work were used. In the results for the calibrated watersheds (Chungju Dam and Soyanggang Dam), two models provided promising results for forecasting of daily flows with the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency of around 0.8. TANK simulated observations during some peak flood seasons better than SWAT, while it showed poor results during dry seasons, especially its simulations did not fall down under a certain value. It can be explained that TANK was calibrated for relatively larger flows than smaller ones. SWAT results showed a relatively good agreement with observed flows except some flood flows, and simulated inflows at the Paldang Dam considering discharges from upper dams coincided with observations with the model efficiency of around 0.9. This accounts for SWAT applicability with higher accuracy in predicting natural flows without dam operation or artificial water uses, and in assessing flow variations before and after dam development. Also, two model results were compared for other watersheds such as Pyeongchang-A, Dalcheon-B, Seomgang-B, Inbuk-A, Hangang-D, and Hongcheon-A to which calibrated TANK parameters were applied. The results were similar to the case of calibrated watersheds, that TANK simulated poor smaller flows except some flood flows and had same problem of keeping on over a certain value in dry seasons. This indicates that TANK application may have fatal uncertainties in estimating low flows used as an important index in water resources planning and management. Therefore, in order to reflect actually complex and complicated physical characteristics of Korean watersheds, and to manage efficiently water resources according to the land use and water use changes with urbanization or climate change in the future, it is necessary to utilize a physically based watershed model like SWAT rather than an existing conceptual lumped model like TANK.

• KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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• v.42 no.5
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• pp.579-596
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• 1997

A simulation study was carried out to delineate potential effects of the lake-induced climate change on crop productivity around Lake Imha which was formed after a multi-purpose dam construction in Andong, Korea. Twenty seven cropping zones were identified within the 30 km by 25 km study area. Five automated weather stations were installed within the study area and operated for five years after the lake formation. A geostatistical method was used to calculate the monthly climatological normals of daily maximum and minimum temperature, solar radiation and precipitation for each cropping zone before and after the dam construction. Daily weather data sets for 30 years were generated for each cropping zone from the monthly normals data representing "No lake" and "After lake" climatic scenarios, respectively. They were fed into crop models (ORYZA1 for rice, SOYGRO for soybean, CERES-maize for corn) to simulate the yield potential of each cropping zone. Calculated daily maximum temperature was higher after the dam construction for the period of October through March and lower for the remaining months except June and July. Decrease in daily minimum temperature was predicted for the period of April through August. Monthly total radiation was predicted to decrease after the lake formation in all the months except February, June, and September and the largest drop was found in winter. But there was no consistent pattern in precipitation change. According to the model calculation, the number of cropping zones which showed a decreased yield potential was 2 for soybean and 6 for corn out of 27 zones with a 10 to 17% yield drop. Little change in yield potential was found at most cropping zones in the case of paddy rice, but interannual variation was predicted to increase after the lake formation. the lake formation.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.79-96
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• 2012

As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.35 no.5
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• pp.1135-1146
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• 2015

This thesis aims to improve the safety of bicycle traffic for activating the use of bicycle, main means of non-powered and non-carbon transportation in order to cope with worldwide crisis such as climate change and energy depletion and to implement sustainable traffic system. In this regard, I analyzed the problem of bicycle roads currently installed and operated, and developed the bicycle accident forecasting model. Following are the processes for this. First, this study presented the current status of bicycle road in Korea as well as accident data, collect the data on bicycle traffic accidents generated throughout the country for recent 3 years (2009~2011) and analyzed the features of bicycle traffic accidents based on the data. Second, this study selected the variable affecting the number of bicycle accidents through accident feature analysis of bicycle accidents at Jeollanam-do, and developed accident forecast model using the multiple regression analysis of 'SPSS Statistics 21'. At this time, the number of accidents due to extension per road types (crossing, crosswalk, other single road) was used. To verify the accident forecast model deduced, this study used the data on bicycle accident generated in Gwangju, 2011, and compared the prediction value with actual number of accidents. As a result, it was found out that reliability of accident forecast model was secured through reconciling with actual number of cases except certain data. Third, this study carried out field survey on the bicycle road as well as questionnaire on satisfaction of bicycle road and use of bicycle for analysis of bicycle road problems, and presented safety improvement measures for the problems deduced as well as bicycle activation plans. This study is considered to serve as the fundamental data for planning and reorganizing of bicycle road in the future, and expected to improve safety of bicycle users and to promote activation of bicycle use as the means of transportation.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.127-146
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• 2017

Services using artificial intelligence have begun to emerge in daily life. Artificial intelligence is applied to products in consumer electronics and communications such as artificial intelligence refrigerators and speakers. In the financial sector, using Kensho's artificial intelligence technology, the process of the stock trading system in Goldman Sachs was improved. For example, two stock traders could handle the work of 600 stock traders and the analytical work for 15 people for 4weeks could be processed in 5 minutes. Especially, big data analysis through machine learning among artificial intelligence fields is actively applied throughout the financial industry. The stock market analysis and investment modeling through machine learning theory are also actively studied. The limits of linearity problem existing in financial time series studies are overcome by using machine learning theory such as artificial intelligence prediction model. The study of quantitative financial data based on the past stock market-related numerical data is widely performed using artificial intelligence to forecast future movements of stock price or indices. Various other studies have been conducted to predict the future direction of the market or the stock price of companies by learning based on a large amount of text data such as various news and comments related to the stock market. Investing on commodity asset, one of alternative assets, is usually used for enhancing the stability and safety of traditional stock and bond asset portfolio. There are relatively few researches on the investment model about commodity asset than mainstream assets like equity and bond. Recently machine learning techniques are widely applied on financial world, especially on stock and bond investment model and it makes better trading model on this field and makes the change on the whole financial area. In this study we made investment model using Support Vector Machine among the machine learning models. There are some researches on commodity asset focusing on the price prediction of the specific commodity but it is hard to find the researches about investment model of commodity as asset allocation using machine learning model. We propose a method of forecasting four major commodity indices, portfolio made of commodity futures, and individual commodity futures, using SVM model. The four major commodity indices are Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(GSCI), Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index(DJUI), Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index(TRCI), and Rogers International Commodity Index(RI). We selected each two individual futures among three sectors as energy, agriculture, and metals that are actively traded on CME market and have enough liquidity. They are Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Wheat, Gold and Silver Futures. We made the equally weighted portfolio with six commodity futures for comparing with other commodity indices. We set the 19 macroeconomic indicators including stock market indices, exports & imports trade data, labor market data, and composite leading indicators as the input data of the model because commodity asset is very closely related with the macroeconomic activities. They are 14 US economic indicators, two Chinese economic indicators and two Korean economic indicators. Data period is from January 1990 to May 2017. We set the former 195 monthly data as training data and the latter 125 monthly data as test data. In this study, we verified that the performance of the equally weighted commodity futures portfolio rebalanced by the SVM model is better than that of other commodity indices. The prediction accuracy of the model for the commodity indices does not exceed 50% regardless of the SVM kernel function. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy of equally weighted commodity futures portfolio is 53%. The prediction accuracy of the individual commodity futures model is better than that of commodity indices model especially in agriculture and metal sectors. The individual commodity futures portfolio excluding the energy sector has outperformed the three sectors covered by individual commodity futures portfolio. In order to verify the validity of the model, it is judged that the analysis results should be similar despite variations in data period. So we also examined the odd numbered year data as training data and the even numbered year data as test data and we confirmed that the analysis results are similar. As a result, when we allocate commodity assets to traditional portfolio composed of stock, bond, and cash, we can get more effective investment performance not by investing commodity indices but by investing commodity futures. Especially we can get better performance by rebalanced commodity futures portfolio designed by SVM model.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.317-324
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• 2015

GNSS was firstly proposed for application in weather forecasting in the mid-1980s. It has continued to demonstrate the practical uses in GNSS meteorology, and other relevant researches are currently being conducted. Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV), calculated based on the GNSS signal delays due to the troposphere of the Earth, represents the amount of the water vapor in the atmosphere, and it is therefore widely used in the analysis of various weather phenomena such as monitoring of weather conditions and climate change detection. In this study we calculated the PWV through the meteorological information from an Automatic Weather Station (AWS) as well as GNSS data processing of a Continuously Operating Reference Station (CORS) in order to analyze the heavy snowfall of the Ulsan area in early 2014. Song’s model was adopted for the weighted mean temperature model (T_m), which is the most important parameter in the calculation of PWV. The study period is a total of 56 days (February 2013 and 2014). The average PWV of February 2014 was determined to be 11.29 mm, which is 11.34% lower than that of the heavy snowfall period. The average PWV of February 2013 was determined to be 10.34 mm, which is 8.41% lower than that of not the heavy snowfall period. In addition, certain meteorological factors obtained from AWS were compared as well, resulting in a very low correlation of 0.29 with the saturated vapor pressure calculated using the empirical formula of Magnus. The behavioral pattern of PWV has a tendency to change depending on the precipitation type, specifically, snow or rain. It was identified that the PWV showed a sudden increase and a subsequent rapid drop about 6.5 hours before precipitation. It can be concluded that the pattern analysis of GNSS PWV is an effective method to analyze the precursor phenomenon of precipitation.