• Title/Summary/Keyword: Certainty Value

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A Study on the Investment Decision of Offshore Aquaculture under Risk (위험 하에서의 외해가두리양식업 투자의사결정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Do-Hoon;Choi, Jong-Yeol;Lee, Jung-Uie
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.109-123
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    • 2008
  • This study is aimed to establish an investment decision model for offshore aquaculture project of rock bream in Korea using a certainty equivalent method (CEM) based on the expected utility theory and to investigate its economic viability under risk and uncertainty. In the analysis with CEM, the effects of risk attitude and risk level on investment and risk premium were examined and the impacts of various risk and uncertainty factors on the investment decision were also assessed. In addition, the outcomes were compared to those evaluated by the traditional net present value (NPV) method. Results show that risk premium grew as the investors became more risk averse and uncertainty level (the variance of NPV) increased. Consequently, the certainty equivalent value was predicted to decrease from the value assessed by the traditional NPV method.

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Rule of Combination Using Expanded Approximation Algorithm (확장된 근사 알고리즘을 이용한 조합 방법)

  • Moon, Won Sik
    • Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.21-30
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    • 2013
  • Powell-Miller theory is a good method to express or treat incorrect information. But it has limitation that requires too much time to apply to actual situation because computational complexity increases in exponential and functional way. Accordingly, there have been several attempts to reduce computational complexity but side effect followed - certainty factor fell. This study suggested expanded Approximation Algorithm. Expanded Approximation Algorithm is a method to consider both smallest supersets and largest subsets to expand basic space into a space including inverse set and to reduce Approximation error. By using expanded Approximation Algorithm suggested in the study, basic probability assignment function value of subsets was alloted and added to basic probability assignment function value of sets related to the subsets. This made subsets newly created become Approximation more efficiently. As a result, it could be known that certain function value which is based on basic probability assignment function is closely near actual optimal result. And certainty in correctness can be obtained while computational complexity could be reduced. by using Algorithm suggested in the study, exact information necessary for a system can be obtained.

A Comparative Assessment of the Efficacy of Frequency Ratio, Statistical Index, Weight of Evidence, Certainty Factor, and Index of Entropy in Landslide Susceptibility Mapping

  • Park, Soyoung;Kim, Jinsoo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.67-81
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    • 2020
  • The rapid climatic changes being caused by global warming are resulting in abnormal weather conditions worldwide, which in some regions have increased the frequency of landslides. This study was aimed to analyze and compare the landslide susceptibility using the Frequency Ratio (FR), Statistical Index, Weight of Evidence, Certainty Factor, and Index of Entropy (IoE) at Woomyeon Mountain in South Korea. Through the construction of a landslide inventory map, 164 landslide locations in total were found, of which 50 (30%) were reserved to validate the model after 114 (70%) had been chosen at random for model training. The sixteen landslide conditioning factors related to topography, hydrology, pedology, and forestry factors were considered. The results were evaluated and compared using relative operating characteristic curve and the statistical indexes. From the analysis, it was shown that the FR and IoE models were better than the other models. The FR model, with a prediction rate of 0.805, performed slightly better than the IoE model with a prediction rate of 0.798. These models had the same sensitivity values of 0.940. The IoE model gave a specific value of 0.329 and an accuracy value of 0.710, which outperforms the FR model which gave 0.276 and 0.680, respectively, to predict the spatial landslide in the study area. The generated landslide susceptibility maps can be useful for disaster and land use planning.

A Study on an Obstacle Recognition and Contact Protection System for Excavator (굴삭기 장애물 인식 및 접촉방지 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • 김성호;천종현;박경섭;임종형
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2000.10a
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    • pp.398-398
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    • 2000
  • Since there is a blind zone in driver's view around the excavator, industrial accidents between the equipment and the workers within the zone have been occurred frequently. The purpose of this paper is to develop a obstacle recognition system which can prevent such an accident by providing the driver with the information on direction and distance of the obstacle within the blind zone. We designed the ultrasonic sensor based obstacle recognition system which consists of sensor arrays and a control unit connected via CAN(controller area network). The Cross-correlation technique and histogramic probability distribution method are used as a reliable obstacle detection algorithms to remove the environmental noise. The experimental results using a real excavator show the effectiveness of the system.

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What Factors Do Motivate Employees at the Workplace? Evidence from Service Organizations

  • RAHAMAN, Md. Atikur;ALI, Md. Julfikar;WAFIK, HM Atif;MAMOON, Zahidur Rahman;ISLAM, Md. Monwarul
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.12
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    • pp.515-521
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    • 2020
  • Work motivation is critical for ensuring sustainability of any business firm. Motivated personnel essentially helps an organization achieve its organizational goal and objective. Hence, it has become an essential duty for business managers and management committees to identify the motivating factors that would strongly affect their employees. The purpose of the current research is to identify which are the factors that motivate service employees most at their workplace in Bangladesh. The study has used survey questionnaires to collect data from service employees. Convenience sampling is used for data collection. A total of 240 questionnaires were distributed and 183 completed questionnaires were returned (response rate: 77%). The study used purposeful motivating factors, which are ranked (from 1 to 10) by the service employees according to the significance of the factors. Mean value is applied to determine the most crucial motivating factor, where the factor with lowest mean value is considered as the highest significant motivating factor. Results reveal that job certainty, career growth and advancement opportunity, and quality working environment have been the most crucial and influential motivating factors for the service employees. The study adequately underlines the necessity of motivational factors and provides some guidelines to keep employees motivated.

Mathematical Programming Models for Establishing Dominance with Hierarchically Structured Attribute Tree (계층구조의 속성을 가지는 의사결정 문제의 선호순위도출을 위한 수리계획모형)

  • Han, Chang-Hee
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.34-55
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    • 2002
  • This paper deals with the multiple attribute decision making problem when a decision maker incompletely articulates his/her preferences about the attribute weight and alternative value. Furthermore, we consider the attribute tree which is structured hierarchically. Techniques for establishing dominance with linear partial information are proposed in a hierarchically structured attribute tree. The linear additive value function under certainty is used in the model. The incompletely specified information constructs a feasible region of linear constraints and therefore the pairwise dominance relationship between alternatives leads to intractable non-linear programming. Hence, we propose solution techniques to handle this difficulty. Also, to handle the tree structure, we break down the attribute tree into sub-trees. Due to there cursive structure of the solution technique, the optimization results from sub-trees can be utilized in computing the value interval on the topmost attribute. The value intervals computed by the proposed solution techniques can be used to establishing the pairwise dominance relation between alternatives. In this paper, pairwise dominance relation will be represented as strict dominance and weak dominance, which ware already defined in earlier researches.

Private Equity Valuation under Model Uncertainty

  • BIAN, Yuxiang
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2022
  • The study incorporates model uncertainty into the private equity (PE) valuation model (SWY model) (Sorensen et al., 2014) to evaluate how model uncertainty distorts the leverage and valuations of PE funds. This study applies a continuous-time model to PE project valuation, modeling the LPs' goal as multiplier preferences provided by Anderson et al. (2003), and assuming that LPs' aversion to model uncertainty causes endogenous belief distortions with entropy as a measure of model discrepancies. Concerns regarding model uncertainty, according to the theoretical model, have an unclear effect on LPs' risk attitude and GPs' decision, which is based on the value of the PE asset. It also demonstrates that model uncertainty lowers the certainty-equivalent valuation of the LPs. Finally, we compare the outcomes of the Full-spanning risk model with the Non-spanned risk model, and they match the intuitive economic reasoning. The most important implication is that model uncertainty will have negative effects on the LPs' certainty-equivalent valuation but has ambiguous effects on the portfolio allocation choice of liquid wealth. Our works contribute to two literature streams. The first is the literature that models the PE funds. The second is the literature introduces model uncertainty into standard finance models.

The Multiple Index Approach for the Evaluation of Tourism and Recreation Related Pictograms (MIA를 이용한 관광.휴양관련 픽토그램의 인지효과 평가)

  • Kim Jeong-Min;Yoo Ki-Joon
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.319-330
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    • 2006
  • It is imperative that pictograms as pictorial information be empirically tested in order to establish whether the users do indeed associate the appropriate referent in an actual usage situation. The experiment employing the Multiple Index Approach was conducted in a class room with 64 subjects to evaluate tourism and recreation related pictograms. Performance data(hit rate, false alarm and missing value) of 25 pictograms were collected and the average hit rate as a prime index of pictogram associativeness was 65.82%. The matrix analysis showed 14 pictograms were high in subjective certainty and subjective suitability. The other 11, which were low in both criteria may require prior learning or improvement of the pictogram designs to represent their meanings more distinctively.

Impact of a Brand Image Matching with the Advertising Model on Price Fairness Perceptions: Focus on Sports Advertising (브랜드 이미지와 광고모델의 일치성이 가격공정성 지각에 미치는 영향 : 스포츠 광고를 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Hee-Joong;Shin, Seung-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.43-50
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    • 2012
  • This study sets out to examine how a brand image that matches the advertising model has a positive impact on brand attitude and price fairness perceptions. We reviewed the constructs on the basis of previous studies and each of the concepts has been redefined. One such concept, "image congruence," refers to the harmony, fitness, and matching quality of images. For example, how well celebrity advertising model is matches the brand image shows image congruence. Results are summarized as follows: First, the congruence of brand image and sports advertising model has no significant impact on brand attitude certainty and persistence. Second, the individual's brand attitude certainty and brand attitude persistence has a positive impact on the perceptions of price fairness. Third, the congruence of brand image and sports advertising model has a positive impact on the perceptions of price fairness. The first and the third results suggest that the positive impact on the price fairness perceptions is temporary but it has insignificant effects on the formation of brand attitude causing ongoing purchases. In other words, in order to influence consumers' long-term confidence on the brand, improving the quality of products or services has to precede promotional strategies such as advertising. When an advertising model is inappropriate for the brand image, consumers perceive product price changes as a negative issue in the short term. However, in the long term, attitude formation such as consumers' repurchase intentions and word of mouth will be not affected. The second result suggests that an already existing positive brand attitude can contribute more positively to change the perceptions of price fairness. In particular, attitude persistence has greater influence than attitude certainty on the price fairness. It suggests that persistence issues such as the trading period and the frequency of transactions must be managed and controlled because they are more important than the certainty issues such as strength of belief or trust. For example, when a commercial model for expensive sporting goods matches up with the brand image, consumer feels less pressure on the price changes. However, it does not determine the consumer's repeated purchases or sustainable transactions and it also has no absolute impact on the brand trust. In other words, consumer brand attitude should be recognized and approached as a routine strategy in view of the result that it is of great value as a causal variable in the process of consumer decision-making.

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Practical Study about Obstacle Detecting and Collision Avoidance Algorithm for Unmanned Vehicle

  • Park, Eun-Young;Lee, Woon-Sung;Kim, Jung-Ha
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.487-490
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    • 2003
  • In this research, we will devise an obstacle avoidance algorithm for a previously unmanned vehicle. Whole systems consist mainly of the vehicle system and the control system. The two systems are separated; this system can communicate with the vehicle system and the control system through wireless RF (Radio Frequency) modules. These modules use wireless communication. And the vehicle system is operated on PIC Micro Controller. Obstacle avoidance method for unmanned vehicle is based on the Virtual Force Field (VFF) method. An obstacle exerts repulsive forces and the lane center point applies an attractive force to the unmanned vehicle. A resultant force vector, comprising of the sum of a target directed attractive force and repulsive forces from an obstacle, is calculated for a given unmanned vehicle position. With resultant force acting on the unmanned vehicle, the vehicle's new driving direction is calculated, the vehicle makes steering adjustments, and this algorithm is repeated.

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