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A Test on the Efficiency of Monetary Policy in Korea (한국 통화정책의 효율성 검정)

  • Cho, Seonghoon;Huh, Hyeon-seung;Woo, Hee Yeul
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.117-133
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    • 2007
  • This paper evaluates the efficiency of monetary policy in Korea within the framework of interest rate feedback rules. For this, a small open macroeconomic model is constructed in a similar fashion to Ball (1999). The model is shown to capture key features of the Korean economy well. Using this estimated model, optimal instrument rules are derived for a set of different monetary policy objectives. Empirical results find that the actual monetary policy in the class of instrument rules was not very effective in stabilizing the output gap relative to inflation. However, seemingly successful inflation stabilization observed in the data are not consistent with the policy rules as the reaction of the interest rate to inflation is very low. It also appears that the central bank did not react right to movements in the real exchange rate. This paper offers some suggestions for the conduct of monetary policy in Korea.

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Estimation of the Korean Yield Curve via Bayesian Variable Selection (베이지안 변수선택을 이용한 한국 수익률곡선 추정)

  • Koo, Byungsoo
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.84-132
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    • 2020
  • A central bank infers market expectations of future yields based on yield curves. The central bank needs to precisely understand the changes in market expectations of future yields in order to have a more effective monetary policy. This need explains why a range of models have attempted to produce yield curves and market expectations that are as accurate as possible. Alongside the development of bond markets, the interconnectedness between them and macroeconomic factors has deepened, and this has rendered understanding of what macroeconomic variables affect yield curves even more important. However, the existence of various theories about determinants of yields inevitably means that previous studies have applied different macroeconomics variables when estimating yield curves. This indicates model uncertainties and naturally poses a question: Which model better estimates yield curves? Put differently, which variables should be applied to better estimate yield curves? This study employs the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model and takes the Bayesian approach to variable selection in order to ensure precision in estimating yield curves and market expectations of future yields. Bayesian variable selection may be an effective estimation method because it is expected to alleviate problems arising from a priori selection of the key variables comprising a model, and because it is a comprehensive approach that efficiently reflects model uncertainties in estimations. A comparison of Bayesian variable selection with the models of previous studies finds that the question of which macroeconomic variables are applied to a model has considerable impact on market expectations of future yields. This shows that model uncertainties exert great influence on the resultant estimates, and that it is reasonable to reflect model uncertainties in the estimation. Those implications are underscored by the superior forecasting performance of Bayesian variable selection models over those models used in previous studies. Therefore, the use of a Bayesian variable selection model is advisable in estimating yield curves and market expectations of yield curves with greater exactitude in consideration of the impact of model uncertainties on the estimation.

Prediction of KRW/USD exchange rate during the Covid-19 pandemic using SARIMA and ARDL models (SARIMA와 ARDL모형을 활용한 COVID-19 구간별 원/달러 환율 예측)

  • Oh, In-Jeong;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.191-209
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    • 2022
  • This paper is a review of studies that focus on the prediction of a won/dollar exchange rate before and after the covid 19 pandemic. The Korea economy has an unprecedent situation starting from 2021 up till 2022 where the won/dollar exchange rate has exceeded 1,400 KRW, a first time since the global financial crisis in 2008. The US Federal Reserve has raised the interest rate up to 2.5% (2022.7) called a 'Big Step' and the Korea central bank has also raised the interested rate up to 2.5% (2022.8) accordingly. In the unpredictable economic situation, the prediction of the won/dollar exchange rate has become more important than ever. The authors separated the period from 2015.Jan to 2022.Aug into three periods and built a best fitted ARIMA/ARDL prediction model using the period 1. Finally using the best the fitted prediction model, we predicted the won/dollar exchange rate for each period. The conclusions of the study were that during Period 3, when the usual relationship between exchange rates and economic factors appears, the ARDL model reflecting the variable relationship is a better predictive model, and in Period 2 of the transitional period, which deviates from the typical pattern of exchange rate and economic factors, the SARIMA model, which reflects only historical exchange rate trends, was validated as a model with a better predictive performance.

Development of a Simple Method to Determine the Mouse Strain from Which Cultured Cell Lines Originated

  • Yoshino, Kaori;Saijo, Kaoru;Noro, Chikako;Nakamura, Yukio
    • Interdisciplinary Bio Central
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.14.1-14.9
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    • 2010
  • Misidentification of cultured cell lines results in the generation of erroneous scientific data. Hence, it is very important to identify and eliminate cell lines with a different origin from that being claimed. Various methods, such as karyotyping and isozyme analysis, can be used to detect inter-species misidentification. However, these methods have proved of little value for identifying intra-species misidentification, and it will only be through the development and application of molecular biological approaches that this will become practical. Recently, the profiling of microsatellite variants has been validated as a means of detecting gene polymorphisms and has proved to be a simple and reliable method for identifying individual cell lines. Currently, the human cell lines provided by cell banks around the world are routinely authenticated by microsatellite polymorphism profiling. Unfortunately, this practice has not been widely adopted for mouse cells lines. Here we show that the profiling of microsatellite variants can be also applied to distinguish the commonly used mouse inbred strains and to determine the strain of origin of cultured cell lines. We found that approximately 4.2% of mouse cell lines have been misidentified; this is a similar rate of misidentification as detected in human cell lines. Although this approach cannot detect intra-strain misidentification, the profiling of microsatellite variants should be routinely carried out for all mouse cell lines to eliminate inter-strain misidentification.

An analysis of changes in the influence of GDP gap on inflation (GDP갭의 물가영향력 변화 분석)

  • Chang, Youngjae
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.1377-1386
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    • 2015
  • GDP gap is closely related with economic activity of a country as a whole, especially with the economic fluctuations which is called business cycle. GDP gap is regarded as an important variable for the monetary policy of the central bank because it provides information on the excess demand pressures and employment matters. However, GDP gap may not provide enough information of the effect of recent economic structural change or the environmental change of domestic and external economic condition. In this paper, the GDP is decomposed by statistical filtering techniques and various models are fitted to estimate the influence of GDP gap on Inflation and see if it has been changed. Analysis results show that the influence of GDP gap on inflation decreased in the 2000s while that of global GDP gap increased. These results also support that recent low inflation rate is due to the change of overseas economic condition, such as a slowdown in exports resulting from the global recession, as well as domestic factors.

ESTABLISHMENT OF CDM PROJECT ADDITIONALITY THROUGH ECONOMIC INDICATORS

  • Kai. Li.;Robert Tiong L. K.;Maria Balatbat ;David Carmichael
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.272-275
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    • 2009
  • Carbon finance is the investment in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reduction projects in developing countries and countries with economies in transition within the framework of the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) or Joint Implementation (JI) and with creation of financial instruments, i.e., carbon credits, which are tradable in carbon market. The additional revenue generated from carbon credits will increase the bankability of projects by reducing the risks of commercial lending or grant finance. Meantime, it has also demonstrated numerous opportunities for collaborating across sectors, and has served as a catalyst in bringing climate issues to bear in projects relating to rural electrification, renewable energy, energy efficiency, urban infrastructure, waste management, pollution abatement, forestry, and water resource management. Establishing additionality is essential for successful CDM project development. One of the key steps is the investment analysis. As guided by UNFCCC, financial indicators such as IRR, NPV, DSCR etc are most commonly used in both Option II & Option III. However, economic indicator such as Economic Internal Rate of Return(EIRR) are often overlooked in Option III even it might be more suitable for the project. This could be due to the difficulties in economic analysis. Although Asian Development Bank(ADB) has given guidelines in evaluating EIRR, there are still large amount of works have to be carried out in estimating the economic, financial, social and environmental benefits in the host country. This paper will present a case study of a CDM development of a 18 MW hydro power plant with carbon finance option in central Vietnam. The estimation of respective factors in EIRR, such as Willingness to Pay(WTP), shadow price etc, will be addressed with the adjustment to Vietnam local provincial factors. The significance of carbon finance to Vietnam renewable energy development will also be addressed.

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Effectiveness of Public Credit Guarantee System and Its Coexistence with Market-based Finance Schemes (공적보증의 효과성과 시장기반 금융제도와의 공존)

  • Noh, Yong-Hwan;Hong, Jaekeun
    • The Journal of Small Business Innovation
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2016
  • Korean government had used public 'credit guarantee schemes' (CGS) as a counter-cyclical measure. However, it is still controversial about the effectiveness of policy financing on the SMEs. Criticism on policy financing involves the argument that supporting enterprises hampers competition and innovation of SMEs by increasing their dependence on the government and delays the exit of marginal firms. In this paper, we investigate how to effectively build up the rationale of running public CGSs. At the same time, we propose the ways to coexist of public credit guarantee and market-based private finance system for SMEs. First, CGS, as a counter-cyclical function, must coexist with the private financial system by compensating the market failure caused by pro-cyclical behavior of the private financial market. Second, CGS has the comparative advantages, compared to both the interest rate policy of the central bank and fiscal policy of the government. The credit guarantee is the symptomatic treatment that could revitalize the economy shortly by providing liquidity. Also, knowing that CGS is provided based on the leverage ratio defined by outstanding guarantee divided by capital fund, public 'credit guarantee' (CG) has an advantage that is free from the risk of government deficit. Third, the reason for existence of the CGS should be founded in supporting services for SMEs, available only in a public sector that is difficult to expect from private banks. In this regard, it is desirable to strengthen the publicness of credit guarantee over the support for start-ups, growing companies, the improvement of productivity, increase of exports, a long-term investment in facilities, the employment-creating businesses, and innovative enterprises.

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Prevalence of Intestinal Helminths among Inhabitants of Cambodia (2006-2011)

  • Yong, Tai-Soon;Chai, Jong-Yil;Sohn, Woon-Mok;Eom, Keeseon S.;Jeoung, Hoo-Gn;Hoang, Eui-Hyug;Yoon, Cheong-Ha;Jung, Bong-Kwang;Lee, Soon-Hyung;Sinuon, Muth;Socheat, Duong
    • Parasites, Hosts and Diseases
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.661-666
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    • 2014
  • In order to investigate the status of intestinal helminthic infections in Cambodia, epidemiological surveys were carried out on a national scale, including 19 provinces. A total of 32,201 fecal samples were collected from schoolchildren and adults between 2006 and 2011 and examined once by the Kato-Katz thick smear technique. The overall egg positive rate of intestinal helminths was 26.2%. The prevalence of hookworms was the highest (9.6%), followed by that of Opisthorchis viverrini/minute intestinal flukes (Ov/MIF) (5.7%), Ascaris lumbricoides (4.6%), and Trichuris trichiura (4.1%). Other types of parasites detected were Enterobius vermicularis (1.1%), Taenia spp. (0.4%), and Hymenolepis spp. (0.2%). The northwestern regions such as the Siem Reap, Oddar Meanchey, and Banteay Meanchey Provinces showed higher prevalences (17.4-22.3%) of hookworms than the other localities. The southwestern areas, including Koh Kong and Preah Sihanouk Provinces showed higher prevalences of A. lumbricoides (17.5-19.2%) and T. trichiura (6.1-21.0%). Meanwhile, the central and southern areas, in particular, Takeo and Kampong Cham Provinces, showed high prevalences of Ov/MIF (23.8-24.0%). The results indicate that a considerably high prevalence of intestinal helminths has been revealed in Cambodia, and thus sustained national parasite control projects are necessary to reduce morbidity due to parasitic infections in Cambodia.

Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Terminal Operators' Profit: Focusing on Global Terminal Operators (거시경제지표가 터미널운영사 재무성과에 미치는 영향 분석: 글로벌터미널운영사 중심으로)

  • Lee, Joo-Ho;Yun, Won Young;Park, Ju Dong
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.129-140
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    • 2020
  • In the future, the global container handling market will be reorganized into larger ships and shipping alliances, and the bargaining power of shipping companies will be further strengthened. Therefore, the global terminal operator (GTO), which has a global network, vast experience, and operational know-how, is expected to strengthen its competitiveness. In Korea, the central government promoted the development of GTOs in the mid-2000s, but it failed, mainly due to disagreements between port stakeholders. In this study, the macroeconomic indicators that have the same effect in all regions were used to analyze GTO management performance. In the short term, it could be used to establish the business strategy of domestic terminal operators based on changes in macroeconomic indicators. In the long term, it would be used to establish a promotion strategy for GTOs in Korea. The results of analyzing the impact of macroeconomic indicators on the GTO's profit show that the GTO's profit is significantly affected by cargo handling capacity, the consumer price index of the United States, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Crude Oil Price, and the London Inter-bank Offered Rate (LIBOR). However, the scale of impact was not significantly different between public and private GTOs.

Studies on the Occurrence, Host Range, Transmission, and Control of Rice Stripe Disease in Korea (한국에서의 벼 줄무늬잎마름병의 발생, 피해, 기주범위, 전염 및 방제에 관한 연구)

  • Chung Bong Jo
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.13 no.4 s.21
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    • pp.181-204
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    • 1974
  • The study has been carried out to investigate the occurrence, damage, host range, transmission and control of rice stripe virus in Korea since 1965. 1 Disease occur「once and damage : The virus infection during the seedling stage ranged from 1.3 to $8\%$. More symptom expression was found in regrowth of clipped rice than infected intact plants, and the greater infection took place in early seasonal culture than in ordinary seasonal culture. A higher incidence of the disease was found on the rows close to the bank, and gradually decreased toward the centre of the rice paddy. Disease occurrence and plant maturity was highly correlated in that the most japonica rice types were diseased when they were inoculated within 3 to 7 leaf stage, and$50\%$, $20\%$ and no diseaseb were found if they were inoculated at 9, 11 and 13 leaf stages, respectively. Symptom expression required 7-15 days when the plants were inoculated during 3-7 leaf stages, while it was 15-30days in the plants inoculated during 9-15 leaf stages. On Tongil variety the per cent disease was relatively higher when the plants were infected within 1.5-5 leaf stages than those at 9 leaf stage, and no disease was found on the plants infected after 15 leaf stage. The disease resulted in lowered growth rates, maturity and sterility of Tongil variety although the variety is known as tolerant to the virus. 2. Host range: Thirty five species of crops, pasture grasses and weeds were tested for their susceptibility to the virus. Twenty one out of 35 species tested were found to be susceptible. and 3 of them, Cyperus amuricus Maximowics var. laxus, Purcereus sanguinolentus Nees and Eriocaulon robustius Makino, were found as new hosts of the virus. 3. Transmission: The vector of the virus, Laodelphax striatellus, produces 5 generations a year. The peak of second generation adults occurred at June 20th and those of third was at about July 30th in Suweon area. In Jinju area the peak of second generation adult proceeded the peak at Suweon by 5-7 days. The peaak of third generation adult was higher than the second at Jinju, but at Suweon the reverse was true. The occurrence of viruliferous Laodelphax striatellus was 10-15, 9, 17, 8 and about $10\%$ from overwintered nymph, 1st generation nymph, 2nd generation adult, End generation nymph and the remaining generations, respectively. More viruliferous L. striatellus were found in the southern area than in the central area of Korea. The occurrence of viruliferous L. striatellus depended on the circumstances of the year. The per cent viruliferous vectors gin 2nd and 3rd generation adult, however, was consistantly higher than that of other generations. Matings of viruliferous L. striatellus resulted in $90\%$ viruliferous progenies, and the 3rd, 4th and 5th instars of the vector had higher infectiviey than the rest of the vector stages. The virus acquisition rate of non-viruliferous L. striatellus was $7-9\%$, These viruliferous L. striatellus, however, could not transmit the virus for more than 3 serial times. The optimum temperature for the transmission of the viru3 was $25-30^{\circ}C$, while rare transmission occurred when the temperature was below $15^{\circ}C$. The per cent of L. striatellus parasitization by Haplogonatopus atratus were $5-48\%$ during the period from June to the end of August, and the maximum parasitization was $32-48\%$ at around July 10. 4. Control: 1) Cultural practices; The deeper the depth of transplanting more the disease occurrence was found. The higher infection rate, $1.5-3.5\%$, was observed during the late stages of seedling beds, and the rate became lower, $1.0-2.0\%$, in the early period of paddy field in southern area. Early transplanting resulted in more infection than early seasonal culture, and the ordinary seasonal culture showed the lowest infection. The disease also was favored by earlier transplanting even under tile ordinary seasonal culture. The higher the nitrogen fertilizer level the more the disease occurrence was found in the paddy field. 2) Resistant varieties; Tongil varieties shelved the resistant reaction to the virus in greenhouse tests. In the tests for resistance on 955 varieties most japonica types shelved susceptible reactions, while the resistant varieties were found mostly from introduced varietal groups. 3) Chemical control; Earlier applications of chemicals, Disyston and Diazinon, showed better results when the test was made 4 days after inoculation in the greenhouse even though none of the insecticides shelved the complete control of the disease. Three serial applications of chemicals on June 14, June 20 and June 28 showed bettor results than one or two applications at any other dates under field conditions.

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