• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.207-218
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• 2010

The purpose of the study is to predict the shipping business during the period of 2011 using the ARIMA-type models. This include the ARIMA and Intervention-ARIMA models. The multivariate cause-effect econometric model is not employed for not assuring a higher degree of forecasting accuracy than the univariate variable model. Such a cause-effect econometric model also fails in adjusting itself for the post-sample. This article introduces the four ARIMA models and six Intervention-ARIMA models. The monthly data cover the period January 2000 through October 2010. The out-of-sample forecasting performance is compared between the ARIMA-type models and the random walk model. Forecasting performance is measured by three summary statistics: root mean squared percent error, mean absolute percent error and mean percent error. The root mean squared percent errors of all the ARIMA-type models are somewhat higher than normally expected. Furthermore, the random walk model outperforms all the ARIMA-type models. This reveals that the BDI is just a random walk phenomenon and it's meaningless to predict the BDI using various econometric techniques. The ARIMA-type models show that the shipping market is expected to be bearish in 2011. These pessimistic ex-ante forecasts are supported by the Hodrick-Prescott filtering technique.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.635-640
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• 2014

Detection and diagnosis of incipient bearing fault in an induction motor is important for the prevention of serious motor failure. This paper presents an analysis of the effect of a faulty bearing on the stator current of an induction motor. A bearing fault leads to torque oscillations which result in phase modulation of the stator current. Since the torque oscillations cause specific frequency components at the stator current spectrum to rise sharply, the bearing fault can be detected by checking out the faultrelated frequency. In this paper, a mathematical model of the load torque oscillation caused by a bearing fault is presented. The proposed model can be used to analyze the physical phenomenon of a bearing fault in an induction motor. In order to represent the bearing fault effect, the proposed model is combined with an existing model of vector-controlled induction motors. A set of simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and represent that bearing fault detection using a stator current is useful for vector-controlled induction motors.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.182-186
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• 2012

This paper aims to analyze the vibration characteristics of the test equipment that inspects any defects in manufactured semiconductor chips and classifies defective chips. This type of equipment should be robust against any vibrations because such vibrations can cause disruption in the process that requires higher precision. 3D model of the structure of the equipment has been used to configure vibration simulation model. Model analysis have been carried out to analyze which part of the equipment is weak against vibration. To minimize the vibration effect of the equipment, the thickness of the plate consist of the equipment and weights are modified. The results show that thicker plate and higher weight in the equipment can decrease vibration effect.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.27 no.7
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• pp.1187-1196
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• 2014

Italian Ryegrass (IRG), which is known as high yielding and the highest quality winter annual forage crop, is grown in mid-south area in Korea. This study aims to analyze the cause-and-effect relationship between IRG yield and climate variables such as temperature and precipitation by using IRG data and climate data of Korea Weather Bureau. From path analysis of structural equation model under multivariate normality, we found that there was a weather effect on IRG yield that the winter grass IRG yield was directly affected by spring temperature and indirectly affected by spring rainfall. These results showed that IRG can be sown in early spring in the area where it is hard to prepare for winter due to low temperature. This paper can contribute to increase IRG yield by showing the cause-and-effect relationship and this study can be extended to various structural equation models for other crops.

• Journal of the Korean Home Economics Association
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• v.32 no.5
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• pp.15-28
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• 1994

The purposes of this study are to define the family life events as a input factor of system model and to understand structural characteristics of the family life events in the modern multilateral society have and orientation of the management system leads a satisfactory life. This study attempted through the relation of cause and effect among the components of management system by Deacon & Firebaugh systems theory. The findings of this study are as follows: 1) As for the influence of family life events on the orientation of home management behavior the influential family life event on overall the orientation of home management behavior was social problem of family members($\beta$= -128). 2)Family life events which have influence on the family life satisfaction were financial problem and trouble with husband members problems demand for housework and everyday affairs. 3) The subdivison of home management behavior which influenced on the overall family life satisfaction were communication and decision originality the use of resources and the flexibility of plan. 4) Results of path analysis revealed that relation of cause and effect out of family life events resources the patterns of home management behavior and family life satisfaction the family life events made the family life satisfaction higher because they had negative effect on the family life satisfaction directly but changed total effect into positive one by family management behavior.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.29 no.5
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• pp.313-321
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• 2019

The wind blowing at high velocity in an open storage yard leads to wind erosion and loss of material. Fence structures can be constructed around the periphery of the storage yard to reduce the erosion. The fence will cause turbulence and recirculation behind it which can be utilized to reduce the wind erosion and loss of material. A properly designed fence system will produce lesser turbulence and longer shelter effect. This paper aims to show the applicability of Support Vector Machine (SVM) to predict the recirculation length. A SVM model was built, trained and tested using the experimental data gathered from the literature. The newly developed model is compared with numerical turbulence model, in particular, modified $k-{\varepsilon}$ model along with the experimental results. From the results, it was observed that the SVM model has a better capability in predicting the recirculation length. The SVM model was able to predict the recirculation length at a lesser time as compared to modified $k-{\varepsilon}$ model. All the results are analyzed in terms of statistical measures, such as root mean square error, correlation coefficient, and scatter index. These examinations demonstrate that SVM has a strong potential as a feasible tool for predicting recirculation length.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.641-657
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• 2015

Application of reduced web beam section (RWBS) as a sacrificial fuse element has become a popular research field in recent years. Weakening of beam web in these connections may cause local web buckling around the opening area which can affect cyclic behavior of connection including: maximum load carrying capacity, strength degradation rate, dissipated energy, rotation capacity, etc. In this research, effect of local web buckling on the cyclic behavior of RWBS connections is investigated using finite element modeling (FEM). For this purpose, a T-shaped moment connection which has been tested under cyclic loading by another author is used as the reference model. Fracture initiation in models is simulated using Cyclic Void Growth Model (CVGM) which is based on micro-void growth and coalescence. Included in the results are: effect of opening corner radii, opening dimensions, beam web thickness and opening reinforcement. Based on the results, local web buckling around the opening area plays a significant role on the cyclic behavior of connection and hence any parameter affecting the local web buckling will affect entire connection behavior.

• Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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• 1998.10b
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• pp.298-298
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• 1998

The delay on two-lane, Two-way roads is a very important factor which tends to cause relatively high driver loads and too much delay often leads to traffic accidents. In this study a generalized form of delay estimation model was developed based on constant slow moving vehicle speeds, 100% no-passing zone, and flat terrain highway sections. To validate the model, a comparison was made with John Morrall's SMV(Slow Moving Vehicle)model as well as with TWOPAS model. Also a sensitivity analysis was performed to check accuracy of the model. It was found that the model was easy to apply and yet provided reasonable results for experimental conditions specified in the study. It was recommended that speed calculation procedure of the model be improved by further studies, so that the effect of speed acceleration or deceleration according to highway geometries on delay could be analyzed more accurately.

• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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• v.26
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• pp.9.1-9.9
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• 2011

Objectives: In order to evaluate which temperature index is the best predictor for the health impact assessment of heat stress in Korea, several indexes were compared. Methods: We adopted temperature, perceived temperature (PT), and apparent temperature (AT), as a heat stress index, and changes in the risk of death for Seoul and Daegu were estimated with $^1{\circ}C$ increases in those temperature indexes using generalized additive model (GAM) adjusted for the non-temperature related factors: time trends, seasonality, and air pollution. The estimated excess mortality and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) due to the increased temperature indexes for the $75^{th}$ percentile in the summers from 2001 to 2008 were compared and analyzed to define the best predictor. Results: For Seoul, all-cause mortality presented the highest percent increase (2.99% [95% CI, 2.43 to 3.54%]) in maximum temperature while AIC showed the lowest value when the all-cause daily death counts were fitted with the maximum PT for the $75^{th}$ percentile of summer. For Daegu, all-cause mortality presented the greatest percent increase (3.52% [95% CI, 2.23 to 4.80%]) in minimum temperature and AIC showed the lowest value in maximum temperature. No lag effect was found in the association between temperature and mortality for Seoul, whereas for Daegu one-day lag effect was noted. Conclusions: There was no one temperature measure that was superior to the others in summer. To adopt an appropriate temperature index, regional meteorological characteristics and the disease status of population should be considered.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.28 no.8 s.227
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• pp.1075-1086
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• 2004

In this paper, Time Delay Control(TDC) for robot manipulators is analyzed and its problems are founded. In order to remedy the problems, the enhanced controller is proposed and analyzed. The effect of friction associated with TDC is reported and its cause is presented. Through the analysis, simulation and experiment, it is shown that the friction effect causes serious degradation in control performance and that it is a result of the error of Time Delay Estimation(TDE) in TDC. In order to remedy the problems, TDC combined with Internal Model Control(IMC) concept is proposed. The proposed compensator is effective enough to handle the bad effect of friction, and is so simple and efficient as to match positive attribute of TDC. The simulation and experimental results show the effectiveness of proposed controller against the friction of the robot manipulators.