• Title/Summary/Keyword: Causal Loop

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Analysis of Education Gap after Covid-19 Using Systems Thinking (시스템 사고를 활용한 Covid-19 이후 교육격차 분석)

  • Kyung-Do, Suh;Jung-il Choi;Pan-Am Choi;Jaerim Jung
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.39-48
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    • 2024
  • Due to COVID-19, much research has been conducted on learning loss and educational gaps due to the postponement of the start of school and prolonged online distance learning, and most of the research has focused on the phenomenon of educational gaps. If a pandemic situation like this occurs in the future, fundamental policies are needed to resolve the educational gap. A fundamental solution requires not only an understanding of the educational gap phenomenon, but also the structure behind the phenomenon. Therefore, from a structuralist perspective, this study sought to model the educational gap caused by COVID-19 as a prototype of systems thinking and identify its structure. In addition, we looked at the unintended consequences resulting from policies aimed at resolving existing educational gaps. In order to respond to similar disaster situations in the future, policies for resolving the digital gap, support for basic academic skills, quality improvement for distance learning, and self-directed learning were discussed based on the structure of this study.

System Dynamics Modeling of Korean Lease Contract Chonsei (시스템 다이내믹스 방법론을 활용한 국내전세 구조분석)

  • Park, MoonSeo;Moon, Myung-Gi;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Hwang, Sungjoo;Lee, Jeoung-Hoon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.153-164
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    • 2012
  • Since the sub-prime mortgage crisis from the US in 2008, Korean housing market has plummeted. However, Korean local lease contract, Chonsei, price has been increasing. This increase of Chonsei price can be a threat to the low-income people because most of them prefer to live at the house with a Chonsei contract. In order to solve this problem, the Korean Government implemented several Chonsei policies to secure low-incomers' residence by decreasing the price of Chonsei; however, due to the lack of understanding on housing and Chonsei market, Korean government policy seemed to fail on getting effective results. In the housing and Chonsei market, there are many stakeholders with their own interest, hence, simple thoughts about housing and Chonsei market, such as more house supply will decrease house price, would not work in a real complex housing market. In this research, we suggests system dynamics conceptual model which consists of causal-loop-diagrams for the Chonsei market as well as the housing market. In addition, we tries to explain why the policy did not work effectively using the examples from the government's past measures. In results, Chonsei price has its own homeostasis characteristic and different price movement with housing price in the short and long term period. Unless government does not have a structural causation mind in implementing policies in the real estate market, the government may not attain intended effectiveness on both markets.

The Effect of the Individual differences in Cognitive Processes on Paragraph Comprehension: Structural Equation Modeling (인지정보처리의 개인차와 문단의 이해: 구조모형 연구)

  • Lee, Yoonhyoung;Kwon, Youan
    • Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.487-515
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of the individual differences in cognitive processes on paragraph comprehension. To do so, the lexical decision task and the pattern comparison task were used to measure the low-level cognitive processes. Digit span task was used to test the phonological loop capacity. The individual differences of the central executive processing capacity were measured by operational span task. Reading span task was used to test the working memory capacity related with the sentence processing. Reading times and accuracies of the logically valid inferences and logically void inferences were tested to measure the high-level cognitive processes. Reading times and accuracies for the target sentences with and without prior explicit causal sentence were measured to test individuals' paragraph comprehension abilities. The results showed that the speed of the low-level cognitive processes was related with the speed of the high-level cognitive processes. Also, the accuracy of the low-level cognitive processes was related with the accuracy of the high-level cognitive processes while there was no significant correlation between the speed and the accuracy in any measures of the cognitive processes. Working memory capacity was related with the accuracy of the cognitive processes while it was not significantly correlated with the speed of the cognitive processes. Most importantly, the speed of low-level cognitive processes significantly affected the speed of the paragraph comprehension while the working memory capacity and the high-level cognitive processes had influences on the accuracies of the paragraph comprehension. The speed of the paragraph comprehension had no influence on the accuracies of the paragraph comprehension.

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An Optimizing Simulation for Designing the Numbers of Electric Train Car (전동열차 편성량수 설계를 위한 최적화 시뮬레이션)

  • Kim, Ick-Hee;Yun, Dong-Hee;Kum, Ki-Jung;Lee, Sang-Myoung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.95-106
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    • 2012
  • The railway service in the Seoul metropolitan area is facing variety of l changes such as extension of service coverage, new construction, and introduction of express service which in turn causes changes on demands. The demand affects train operation characteristics (frequency of service, train formation) as well as on the congestion rate which is one of the major evaluation index in metropolitan area user service. For the efficient operation of the train, the relationship among the minimization of fleet number, operating cost, and service level has been analyzed. Using the Powersim, which is a system dynamics (System Dynamics) simulation program for realizing optimized simulation for train-formation, this paper identified that some stations of Gyeong-bu line exceeded limit congestion rate(150%) of a fleet already that means it is best to maintain current condition of the line; however, the Gyeong-in line and the Gwa-chon line showed no excess of the limit congestion rate so that it is possible to reduce 2-4 fleets of train for efficient operation. In addition, in case of Jang-hang line between Cheon-an and Sin-chang, a train consisting of 10 fleets provides services which is same formation of train for Gyeong-bu line. This study proved that the congestion rate will not rise greatly with only 4 fleets of a train for the service in Jang-hang line, and it is considered that a study for shuttle service between Cheon-an and Sin-chang is necessary.

Study on Forestland Conversion Demand Prediction based on System Dynamics Model (System Dynamics 기반의 산지전용 수요 모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Doo-Ahn, KWAK
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.222-237
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    • 2022
  • This study was performed to predict change of forestland area in future to 2050 based on System Dynamics Model which is based on feedback loop by causal relationship. As forestland area change in the future depends on potential forestland conversion demands, each demand type of forestland conversion such as agricultural, industrial, public and residential/commercial use was modeled using annual GDP, population, number of household, household construction permission area (1981~2019). In results, all of conversion demands would have continuously decreased to 2050 while residential and commercial land would be reduced from 2034. Due to such shortage, eventually, total of forestland in South Korea would have decreased to 6.18 million ha when compared to current 6.29 million ha. Moreover, the forestland conversion to other use types must be occurred continuously in future because most of forestland is owned privately in South Korea. Such steady decrement of forestland area in future can contribute to the shortage of carbon sink and encumber achievement of national carbon-neutral goal to 2050. If forestland conversion would be occurred inevitably in future according to such change trends of all types, improved laws and polices related to forestland should be prepared for planned use and rational conservation in terms of whole territory management. Therefore, it is needed to offer sufficient incentive, such as tax reduction and payment of ecosystem service on excellent forestland protection and maintenance, to private owners for minimizing forestland conversion. Moreover, active afforestation policy and practice have to be implemented on idle land for reaching national goal 'Carbon Neutral to 2050' in South Korea.

A Study on Prediction of Land Use Demand in Seongnam-city Using System Dynamics (시스템 다이내믹스 기법을 활용한 성남시 토지이용수요 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Yi, Mi Sook;Shin, Dong Bin;Kim, Chang Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.261-273
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    • 2022
  • This study aims to predict the land use demand of Seongnam-city using system dynamics and to simulate the effect of changes in family structure and land use density adjustment policy on land use demand. This study attempted to construct causal loop diagrams and an analysis model. The changes in land use demand over time were predicted through simulation results. As a result of the analysis, as of 2035, an additional supply of 2.08 km2 for residential land and 1.36 km2 for commercial land is required. Additionally, the current supply area of industrial land can meet the demand. Three policy experiments were conducted by changing the variable values in the basic model. In the first policy experiment, it was found that when the number of household members decreased sharply compared to the basic model, up to 7.99 km2 of additional residential land were required. In the second policy experiment, if the apartment floor area ratio was raised from 200% to 300%, it was possible to meet the demand for residential land with the current supply area of Seongnam-city. In the third policy experiment, it was found that even if the average number of floors in the commercial area was raised from four to five and the building-to-land ratio in the commercial area was raised from 80% to 85%, the demand for commercial land exceeded the supply area of the commercial area in Seongnam-city. This study is meaningful in that it proposes a new analytical model for land use demand prediction using system dynamics, and empirically analyzes the model by applying the actual urban planning status and statistics of Seongnam-city.