• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.153-171
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• 2016

Purpose This study suggests the development of forecasting model for local cable TV advertisement. In order to verify the expected effect of the suggestion, using the causal loop map of System Dynamics, the factors affecting the prospects of cable TV commercial market were divided into 5 groups. Then targeting 97 people involved in the cable TV commercial market in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam, a survey was conducted on their perception of the current status of local advertisement market and future prospect. Design/methodology/approach The analysis of the collected data shows that workers in advertising and advertisers perceive the influence of cable TV as an advertising media to be high, while clearly understanding the problems of cable TV commercial market. Based on this the effects on the prospects of cable TV commercial market were analyzed and a forecasting method called Weighted Moving Average was applied. In order to improve accuracy of the added value of Weighted Moving Average, the 5 factors were divided into qualitative factors and quantitative factors, and using Multi-attribute Decision Making method, all the factors were normalized and weighting factors were deduced. The result of simulating the prospects of cable TV commercial market using Weighted Moving Average, both qualitative and quantitative factors showed downward turn in the market prospect for the following 10 years. Findings The result reflects generally negative perception of advertisement viewers about the prospects of cable TV commercial market. Compared to the previous studies on domestic cable TV commercials that focused on policy suggestions and surveys on perception of current status, this study has its significance in that it used scientific method and simulation for verification.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.5-28
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• 2014

Derivatives can be easily bought by those companies that need to hedge foreign currency debt or foreign currency assets through the financial market, considering their exchange rate exposure from international trade. The derivatives market has been growing rapidly due to the needs for investment and hedging. To manage foreign exchange risk, companies hedge risks through financial derivatives. According to our study, hedging is an effective way to mitigate the impact of exposure to exchange risk, as long as companies are only hedging underlying assets. Yet, covetous attitude toward the profit from derivatives and unexpected changes in exchange rate can cause problems for companies. This study analyzed the structural risks of derivatives with analysis of system dynamics. In particular, many companies suffered substantial loss due to KIKO during the economic crisis. We explained the problem therein through dynamic analysis. In addition, we revealed the structural problem that could cause a sudden spike in losses through simulations.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.5-29
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• 2015

The importance of the concept of safety culture has increased in the security of high-risk facility after Chernobyl accident in 1986. This paper elaborated the concept of safety culture and its main factors by Causal Loop Diagram. Due to the decline of safety culture, the occurrence of incidents and accidents require more and more corrective actions to the members of high-risk facilities and thereby increasing their workloads. Employees who must complete the task within the given time have to have time pressures and don't comply with the rules and procedures. Also, a schedule pressure is a big stress for employees, causing mistakes in precision work. In order to improve these problems, CLD of the safety culture in this paper suggests hiring more workers, re-allocation of given workloads and strengthen the learning, communication capabilities and safety leadership. In addition, the two real accident cases were analyzed to test the feasibility of the System Dynamic simulation model through the process of structuring the fault trees on the stationary black out accident in Kori unit 1 in South Korea and Kleen Energy power station explosion in US. The simulation results show that the various safety factors cause the serious accident combined with mechanical failure and safety culture will reduce the possibility of the accidents in these high-risk organizations. This simulation model can contribute to analyzing the impact of the organizational and human factors of safety culture and can provide the alternatives in high-risk facilities.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.25-49
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• 2013

As global competition for green car, that is environmentally friendly car, is getting tougher, the governments and the related industries are putting their core efforts in its diffusion. However, the green car sales are disappointing so far. To overcome the gridlock, it is necessary to develop concrete analytical framework to understand the diffusion process. Based on causal loop analysis from the previous work, we have identified main variables and relationships of them in the diffusion process and developed a stock-flow diagram and mathematical formula for the main components. The model would be applied for further quantitative simulation on the diffusion process of green car and other innovative goods as well. Also, we have suggested constructive insights for the policy makers and for the related industries. First, it is important to increase consumers' willingness to consider through marketing and word of mouth to accelerate the diffusion process. Second, in the perspective of the industry, the market share of green car should be increased at the earliest possible stage and this could be done by enhancing each components of green car attractiveness(e.g. price, driving range, social infra). Third, companies should develop a balanced investment between consumer and technology sector through a flexible financial policy. Fourth, the government continuously has the role of investing in the related R&D and social infra building. We expect the green car diffusion model and related formula from the research can provide meaningful tools to analyze the diffusion process of other new and innovative goods based on its deep researched literature review.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.289-307
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• 2015

This study was to analyze dynamics of host regional effect in accordance with Mega-events. Yeosu Expo, 2012 was the Mega-event, and dynamic changes in economic indicators such as number of tourists, GRDP, employment rate, and real estate price were analyzed before and after the event. The Mega-event affected positively and increased on the number of tourists. While GRDP affected positively only right before the event, and the employment rate was not significantly affected by the event. The real estate price was increased from the announced time of hosting to the event held, but later decreased. This study suggested the comprehensive method for analyzing the effect of Mega-event and there was a cyclical causality among the result variables.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.5-34
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• 2011

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the policies for reducing private tutoring expenditure in Roh Mu Hyun and Lee Myeong Bak Government using Causal Loop analysis based on the Systems Thinking perspective. The results are as follows. First, high educational achievers receive more private tutoring than lowers and children who have rich parents have better chance to take private tutoring than the others. It reflects the social characteristics which emphasize the academic ability and educational background. Second, two governments implemented educational policies to control the private tutoring expenditure as balancing loops ; strengthening public education, providing after school programs and EBS KSAT teaching and improving the entrance exam of university. Third, they overlooked the unintended feedback loops coming from 1) incongruity between causes and countermeasures of shadow education 2) wrong perception of substitutional relationship between public education and shadow education 3) side effect of the policy increasing the weight of student record 4) problems of diversifying high schools 5) dilemma of easing the burden of testing through admission officer system. The conclusion is that policies of reducing the private education expenses have failed because two governments don't consider unintended Feedback Loops in the process of making education policies. So we have to make policies based on Systems Thinking and reducing private education expenses should not be the purpose of strengthening the public education.

• Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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• v.49 no.4
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• pp.398-410
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• 2019

Purpose: This study used a system dynamics methodology to identify correlation and nonlinear feedback structures among factors affecting adolescent cyberbullying victims (CV) in Korea and to construct and verify a simulation model. Methods: Factors affecting CV were identified by reviewing a theoretical background in existing literature and referencing various statistical data. Related variables were identified through content validity verification by an expert group, after which a causal loop diagram (CLD) was constructed based on the variables. A stock-flow diagram (SFD) using Vensim Professional 7.3 was used to establish a CV model. Results: Based on the literature review and expert verification, 22 variables associated with CV were identified and the CLD was prepared. Next, a model was developed by converting the CLD to an SFD. The simulation results showed that the variables such as negative emotions, stress levels, high levels of conflict in schools, parental monitoring, and time spent using new media had the strongest effects on CV. The model's validity was verified using equation check, sensitivity analysis for timestep and simulation with 4 CV adolescent. Conclusion: The system dynamics model constructed in this study can be used to develop intervention strategies in schools that are focused on counseling that can prevent cyberbullying and assist in the victims' recovery by formulating a feedback structure and capturing the dynamic changes observed in CV. To prevent cyberbullying, it is necessary to develop more effective strategies such as prevention education, counseling and treatment that considers factors pertaining to the individual, family, school, and media.

• Journal of Industrial Convergence
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.1-14
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• 2018

The interconnectedness of all things is continuously expanding. For example, bluetooth low energy (BLE) beacons are wireless radio transmitters that can send an identifier to nearby receivers and trigger a number of applications, from proximity marketing to indoor location-based service. iBeacon technology which is one of the newest technologies in the smart tourism field, is reckoned as being very useful for travelers in enhancing the experience with visiting places. However, there is consequently not much existing research yet about the connection between iBeacon technology and tourism destination. Considering that, this study analyzes the adoption of iBeacon in tourism destination, this study examine the interrelationships and feedback structures of key factors in iBeacon adoption. To serve the purpose, this study used system dynamics approach to develop a model of iBeacon adoption in tourism destination. The analysis results showed that the concept of 'Social Influences' is one of the significant predictors for individual's intention behavior to accept iBeacon, and word of mouth (WOM), subjective norm, privacy concern, and perceived usefulness are key factors influencing the iBeacon adoption.

• Journal of Korea Society of Digital Industry and Information Management
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.57-73
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to analyze the diffusion period and productivity of smartwork in an organization. Firms are increasingly interested in smartwork for non contact work and working from home because of the corona 19. The smartwork is a new technology that changes face-to-face work in an organization. It helps the work of individuals and organizations regardless of time and place. The theoretical background describes the complexity, system thinking, diffusion theory, smart work, organizational resistance, and productivity. This study analyzes the diffusion period and productivity of smart work through business simulation techniques. A simulation study progresses four stages. There are problem definition, hypothesis establishment and causal loop diagram, model construction and verification, and policy evaluation. The simulation models contain an individual's resistance variables organizational investment and leadership variables related to the operation of smartwork. The organizational investment variables include organizational culture, legal system, implement systems and technology investment. The individual resistance variables include cognitive, attitude, structure and technological resistance. The leadership includes leadership interest variables and performance linkage variables. The simulation executed the changes of a people number adopting smart work and the organizational productivity monthly. As a result of the simulation, many organization members have accepted the smart work innovation after 20 months. The organizational productivity through smart work showed very high value after 16 months. In scenario analysis, the individuals' awareness and attitude resistance showed very important variables to productivity and a personal change of smart work adoption. Meanwhile, The organizational investment showed that the high driving-force increased not productivity and the low driving-force showed decreased low productivity. Also, leadership variables showed a powerful driver for changing smart work productivity. The implication of the study has suggested extending complexity, diffusion theory and organization resistance theory based on simulation methods.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.531-539
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• 2022

The government enforced policies such as social distancing and limiting business hours to prevent the spread of COVID-19. However, the impact of the long-term COVID-19 pandemic is causing more serious difficulties for small business owners. The government intended to relieve the business management pressure for small business owners by drawing up the COVID-19 emergency disaster relief funds. The funds provided temporary support for the small business owners, but the prolonged pandemic worsened the business management difficulties. Therefore, this study will apply fixes that fail and shifting the burden archetypes from the system archetype of system thinking for the exploratory deduction of policy measures as the policy leverage to effectively enhance the recovery of small business owners. In response to the situation, emergency financial aid for small business owners and support that can enhance the self-sustaining powers are required to heighten the recovery of small business owners.