• Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.27-32
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• 2009

Recently, we suggested a CME earthward direction parameter as an important geoeffective parameter that has been demonstrated by front-side halo CME data. In this study, we present the geometrical implication of this parameter by comparing with the parameters from a CME cone model. Major results from this study can be summarized as follows. First, we derive an analytic relationship between the cone model parameters(the half angular width of a cone and the angle between the cone axis and the plane of sky) and the earthward direction parameter. Second, we demonstrate a close relationship between the earthward direction parameter and the cone axis angle using 32 front-side full halo CMEs. Third, we found that there is noticeable inconsistency between the cone axis angles estimated from the cone model fitting to the CMEs and from their associated flare positions, implying that the flare position should not be considered as a good earthward direction parameter. Finally we present several advantages of our earthward direction parameter in terms of the forecast of a geomagnetic storm based on CME parameters.

• Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
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• 2009.10a
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• pp.37.4-38
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• 2009

Rho et al.(2008) showed that the eccentricity parameter of a CME is an important indicator for forecasting CME geoeffectiveness. In this study we have tested a capability of the eccentricity parameter as an indicator of CME direction. For this work we considered 11 CMEs observed by both SOHO/LASCO and STEREO/SECCHI (2007-2008 from Temmer et al. 2009) coronagraphs. We have estimated earthward direction angles for these CMEs based on two different methods: (1) the eccentricity parameter from a single coronagraph SOHO/LASCO and (2) the triangulation technique using a pair of spacecrafts LASCO/STEREO-A and LASCO/STEREO-B. As a result, we have found that for 7 out of 11 CME events their direction angles are consistent with each other within $20^{\circ}$. This result demonstrates that the earthward direction based on the eccentricity parameter can be a good potential indicator for CME propagation direction.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.479-486
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• 2009

We studied the solar proton events (SPEs) associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during the solar cycle 23 (1997-2006). Using 63 SPE dataset, we investigated the relationship among SPE, flare, and CME, and found that (1) SPE rise time and duration time depend on CME speed and the earthward direction parameter of the CME, and (2) the SPE peak intensity depends on CME speed and X-ray Flare intensity. While inspecting the relation between SPE peak intensity and the direction parameter, we found there are two groups: first group consists of large six SPEs (> 10,000 pfu at > 10 MeV proton channel of GOES satellite) and shows strong correlation (cc = 0.65) between SPE peak intensity and CME direction parameter. The second group has a weak intensity and shows poor correlation between SPE peak intensity and the direction parameter (cc = 0.01). By investigating characteristics of the first group, we found that all the SPEs are associated with very fast halo CME (> 1400km/s) and also they are mostly located at central region and within ${\pm}20^{\circ}$ latitude and ${\pm}30^{\circ}$ longitude strip.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.33.2-33.2
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• 2010

We have investigated a relationship among the solar proton events (SPEs), coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar flares during the solar cycle 23 (1997-2006). Using 63 SPE dataset, we found that SPE rise time, duration time, and decrease times depend on CME speed and SPE peak intensity depends on the CME earthward direction parameter as well as CME speed and x-ray flare intensity. While inspecting the relation between SPE peak intensity and the CME earthward direction parameter, we found that there are two groups: first group consists of large 6 SPEs (> 10,000 pfu at >10 MeV proton channel of GOES satellite) and shows a very good correlation (cc=0.65) between SPE peak intensity and CME earthward direction parameter. The second group has a relatively weak SPE peak intensity and shows poor correlation between SPE peak intensity and the CME earthward direction parameter (cc=0.01). By investigating characteristics of 6 SPEs in the first group, we found that there are special common conditions of the extremely large proton events (group 1); (1) all the SPEs are associated with very fast halo CME (>1400km/s), (2) they are almost located at disk region, (3) they also accompany large flare (>M7), (4) all they are preceded by another wide CMEs, and (5) they all show helmet streamer nearby the main CME. In this presentation, we will give details of the energy spectra of the 6 SPE events from the ERNE/HED aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), and onset time comparison among the SPE, flare, type II burst, and CME.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.132.2-132.2
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• 2012

We have investigated the characteristics of magnetic cloud (MC) and ejecta (EJ) associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) based on the assumption that all CMEs have a flux rope structure. For this, we used 54 CMEs and their interplanetary counter parts (interplanetary CMEs: ICMEs) that constitute the list of events used by the NASA/LWS Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop (CDAW) on CME flux ropes. We considered the location, angular width, and speed as well as the direction parameter, D. The direction parameter quantifies the degree of asymmetry of the CME shape, and shows how closely the CME propagation is directed to Earth. For the 54 CDAW events, we found several properties of the CMEs as follows: (1) the average value of D for the 23 MCs (0.62) is larger than that for the 31 EJs (0.49), which indicates that the MC-associated CMEs propagate more directly to the Earth than the EJ-associated CMEs; (2) comparison between the direction parameter and the source location shows that the majority of the MC-associated CMEs are ejected along the radial direction, while many of the EJ-associated CMEs are ejected non-radially; (3) the mean speed of MC-associated CMEs (946 km/s) is faster than that of EJ-associated CMEs (771 km/s). For seven very fast CMEs (>1500 km/s), all CMEs with large D (>0.4) are associated with MCs and the CMEs with small D are associated with EJs. From the statistical analysis of CME parameters, we found the superiority of the direction parameter. Based on these results, we suggest that the CME trajectory essentially decides the observed ICME structure.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.383-394
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• 2008

We examine geoeffective directional parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We select 30 front-side halo CMEs from SOHO LASCO CMEs whose speed is larger than 1000km/s and longitude is less than ${\pm}30^{\circ}$. These are thought to be the most plausible candidate of geoeffective CMEs. We examine the relation between CMEs directional parameters (Earthward direction, eccentricity, ${\Delta}$ distance and central angle parameter) and the minimum value of the Dst index. We have found that the Earthward direction parameter has a good correlation with the Dst index, the eccentricity parameter has a much better correlation with the Dst index. The bo distance and central angle parameter has a poor correlation with the Dst index. It's, however, well correlated with the Dst index in very strong geomagnetic storms. Most of CMEs causing very strong storms (Dst ${\leq}$-200nT) are found to have large Earthward direction parameter $({\geq}0.6)$, small eccentricity, bo distance and central angle parameters $(E{\leq}0.4,\;{\Delta}X\;and\;sin\;{\theta}{\leq}0.2)$. These directional parameters are very important parameters that control the geoeffectiveness of very fast front-side halo CMEs.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.39.2-39.2
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• 2011

In this study we have examined the occurrence probability of solar proton events (SEPs) and their peak fluxes depending two CME parameters, linear speed and angular width. For this we used the NOAA SPE events and their associated CME data from 1997 to 2006. As a result, the probability strongly depends on two parameters as follows. In the case of halo CME whose speed is equal to and faster than 1500km/s, 36.1% are associated with SPEs but in the case of partial halo CME ($120^{\circ}{\leq}AW$ < $359^{\circ}$) whose speed is $400{\leq}V$ < $1000km/s$, only 0.9% are associated with SPEs. When we consider only front-side CMEs, 45.3% are associated with SPEs in the first case and 1.8% are associated with them in the second case. Both of whole CME data group and front-side CME data group have similar tendencies. The probabilities are different as much as 4.9 to 23 times according to the CME speed and 1.6 to 6.5 times to the angular width. We have also examined the relationship between CME speed and proton peak flux as well as its dependence on angular width (partial halo CME and halo CME), longitude (east, center, and west) and direction parameter (< 0.4 and {\geq} 0.4). Our results show that the relationships strongly depend on longitude as well as direction parameter. In addition, the relationship using the radial CME speed based on a cone model has a higher correlation coefficient than that using the projected CME speed.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.95.2-95.2
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• 2012

We have compared the geoeffective parameters of halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to predict geomagnetic storms. For this we consider 50 front-side full halo CMEs whose asymmetric cone model parameters and earthward direction parameter were available. For each CME we use its projected velocity (Vp), radial velocity (Vr), angle between cone axis and sky plane (${\gamma}$) from the cone model, earthward direction parameter (D), source longitude (L), and magnetic field orientation (M) of the CME source region. We make a simple and multiple linear regression analysis to find out the relationship between CME parameters and Dst index. Major results are as follows. (1) $Vr{\times}{\gamma}$ has a higher correlation coefficient (cc = 0.70) with the Dst index than the others. When we make a multiple regression of Dst and two parameters ($Vr{\times}{\gamma}$, D), the correlation coefficient increases from 0.70 to 0.77. (2) Correlation coefficients between Dst index and $Vr{\times}{\gamma}$ have different values depending on M and L. (3) Super geomagnetic storms (Dst ${\leq}$ -200 nT) only appear in the western and southward events. Our results demonstrate that not only the cone model parameters together with the earthward direction parameter improve the relationship between CME parameters and Dst index but also the source longitude and its magnetic field orientation play a significant role in predicting geomagnetic storms.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.90.1-90.1
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• 2011

We are developing empirical space weather (geomagnetic storms, solar proton events, and solar flares) forecast models based on solar information. These models have been set up with the concept of probabilistic forecast using historical events. Major findings can be summarized as follows. First, we present a concept of storm probability map depending on CME parameters (speed and location). Second, we suggested a new geoeffective CME parameter, earthward direction parameter, directly observable from coronagraph observations, and demonstrated its importance in terms of the forecast of geomagnetic storms. Third, the importance of solar magnetic field orientation for storm occurrence was examined. Fourth, the relationship among coronal hole-CIR-storm relationship has been investigated, Fifth, the CIR forecast based on coronal hole information is possible but the storm forecast is challenging. Sixth, a new solar proton event (flux, strength, and rise time) forecast method depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameter (speed, angular width, and longitude) has been suggested. Seventh, we are examining the rates and probability of solar flares depending on sunspot McIntosh classification and its area change (as a proxy of flux change). Our results show that flux emergence greatly enhances the flare probability, about two times for flare productive sunspot regions.

• The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.35.2-35.2
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• 2005