• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.45 no.11
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• pp.1121-1130
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• 2012

Projected changes and their impacts on water quality are simulated in response to climate change stressors. CGHR (T63) simulation on the A1B scenario is converted to regional scale data using a statistical down-scaling method and applied to SWAT model to assess water quality impacts in Nakdong River basin. The results demonstrate that rainfall-runoff and pollutant loading in the future (2011~2100) will clearly increase as compared to the last 30-year average. The rate of pollutant loading increase is expected to continue its acceleration until 2040s. Runoff also shows similar patterns to the precipitation, increasing by 60%. Accordingly, the runoff increase results in escalation of pollutant loading by 35~45% for TSS and 5~20% for T-P. This phenomenon is more pronounced in the upper basin during winter and spring season.