• Journal of Industrial Convergence
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.13-23
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• 2024

In this study, the optimal level of CER issuance price in the energy industry was estimated using a real options considering the uncertainty of emission price. As a result of the analysis, the break-even point for CDM projects in the energy industry registered by UNFCCC from December 2012 to the end of 2021 was 0.64-36.69 euros per ton of CO2 for each individual project. More closely, the emission permit price that reaches the break-even point when NPVw/o CER+ NPVCER ≥ 0 is estimated to be 12.10 euros on average, and the emission permit price that reaches the break-even point when NPVw/o CER + NPVCER ≥ option value is estimated to be 12.63 euros on average. Meanwhile, the option value using real options to reduce business uncertainty is about 19% at the 1-5 euro per ton level, about 11% at the 5-10 euro per ton level, and about 5% at the 10-15 euro per ton level. It was analyzed that there was an effect of increasing emissions prices due to uncertainty reduction. The results of this study may be useful to greenhouse gas reduction project entities, including investors, project operators, and companies with potential mandatory reductions.