• Title/Summary/Keyword: Business index

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Dynamic Interaction between Conditional Stock Market Volatility and Macroeconomic Uncertainty of Bangladesh

  • ALI, Mostafa;CHOWDHURY, Md. Ali Arshad
    • Asian Journal of Business Environment
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.17-29
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: The aim of this study is to explore the dynamic linkage between conditional stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty of Bangladesh. Research design, data, and methodology: This study uses monthly data covering the time period from January 2005 to December 2018. A comprehensive set of macroeconomic variables, namely industrial production index (IP), consumer price index (CPI), broad money supply (M2), 91-day treasury bill rate (TB), treasury bond yield (GB), exchange rate (EX), inflow of foreign remittance (RT) and stock market index of DSEX are used for analysis. Symmetric and asymmetric univariate GARCH family of models and multivariate VAR model, along with block exogeneity and impulse response functions, are implemented on conditional volatility series to discover the possible interactions and causal relations between macroeconomic forces and stock return. Results: The analysis of the study exhibits time-varying volatility and volatility persistence in all the variables of interest. Moreover, the asymmetric effect is found significant in the stock return and most of the growth series of macroeconomic fundamentals. Results from the multivariate VAR model indicate that only short-term interest rate significantly influence the stock market volatility, while conditional stock return volatility is significant in explaining the volatility of industrial production, inflation, and treasury bill rate. Conclusion: The findings suggest an increasing interdependence between the money market and equity market as well as the macroeconomic fundamentals of Bangladesh.

The Effect of Non-Oil Diversification on Stock Market Performance: The Role of FDI and Oil Price in the United Arab Emirates

  • BANERJEE, Rachna;MAJUMDAR, Sudipa
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2021
  • UAE has rapidly developed into one of the leading global financial hubs, with significant transformations in its stock exchanges. In its attempt at economic diversification in the last two decades, the country has also taken a lead in the GCC region in introducing extensive reforms to attract FDI to the Emirates. However, oil price volatilities have posed a significant challenge to all oil-exporting countries. The main aim of this study is to explore the impact of economic diversification and oil price on the UAE stock market. The study applies Granger Causality and Vector Autoregressive Model on monthly Abu Dhabi stock exchange index, Dubai Fateh crude oil spot price, and FDI inflows during 2001-19. The short-term interbank rate has been included as a monetary policy variable. The results show a substantial difference between the two phases of reforms. Oil price and Abu Dhabi stock index show bidirectional relationship during 2001-09 but no causality was found during 2010-19. Furthermore, the second phase was characterized by unidirectional causation from FDI to ADX index. This study highlights FDI inflows as a key driver of stock market performance during the last decade and emphasizes the success of the intense reforms in the UAE initiated for the diversification of its economy.

Efficiency Analysis of Social Security Expenditure in 31 Provinces and Autonomous Regions in China

  • ZHOU, Lin-Lin;KIM, Hyung-Ho
    • East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to measure the efficiency of social security expenditure in 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China and proposes corresponding improvement plans. Research design, data, and methodology - The data were obtained from the statistical yearbook of each province. The BCC and CCR models of DEA model and Malmquist index are used to analyze the efficiency, and the input-output index is expanded. Result - The results show that the social security performance of the Chinese government has improved on the whole despite the unbalanced development in different regions. Each region should look for strategies to improve the efficiency of social security according to its own problems. The study suggests that provinces affected by TCI should improve their internal environment, such as raising social security fund structure and strengthening fund supervision, to improve efficiency. Areas affected by TECI need to be more responsive to policy, socio-economic and technological development. Conclusion - The research conclusion can provide reference for Chinese provinces to improve the efficiency of social security expenditure in the future. This study is not comprehensive enough in the selection of input-output indicators, which can be further expanded in the future.

Uncertainty Avoidance, Individualism and the Readiness of Business-to-Consumer E-commerce

  • XU, Jun;CHENG, Chen
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.791-801
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to test whether and to what extend national culture affects the readiness of business-to-consumer (B2C) e-commerce across the world. We regress two sets of data at national level: (1) the ratings of two main dimensions of Hofstede's national culture framework, uncertainty avoidance and individualism, and (2) UTCTAD B2C e-commerce index value. A sample of 83 countries was tested in this study. Several control variables at national level are included in our regression model. We find that these two cultural dimensions have an effect on the readiness of B2C e-commerce in various ways. We find that countries with high individualism score have high index value of B2C e-commerce development. We discuss the implications of these findings for B2C e-commerce developing strategies. We then call for designing relative policies with full consideration on national culture to promote the development of B2C e-commerce. In addition, we identify the limitations of the study and propose recommendations for future research. This study is the first one to use UNCTAD data on B2C e-commerce to explore the relationships between two dimensions of Hofstede's national culture and the readiness of B2C e-commerce and adds to the knowledge of literature in this research field.

Distribution of Competitiveness and Foreign Direct Investment using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model

  • PHAM, Huong Thi Thu;PHAM, Nga Thi
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.20 no.8
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: Research on attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) plays an important role in helping provinces attract more FDI projects. However, with local competition, FDI enterprises also have to consider their investment. This study evaluates the provincial competitiveness to attract FDI in Thai Nguyen province, a province of Vietnam. In which provincial distribution of competitiveness is measured through nine indicators. Research design, data, and methodology: The study collects data (FDI and the provincial competitiveness index) from 2006 to 2020. The study uses Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to text the impact of distribution of competitivenes on foreign direct investment. With time-series, the ARDL is suitable for data analysis. Results: The regression results indicate that the competition index of market entry and informal costs negatively impact attracting FDI into the province; The human resource training quality index has a positive effect on FDI. The results show that FDI enterprises pay much attention to business establishment procedures, hidden costs, and quality of human resources in the province. Conclusions: At the same time, in terms of practice, the results of this study, the authors also offer solutions to help improve the ability to attract FDI into Thai Nguyen province. The significant provincial competitiveness indicators should be taken into account for improvement first.

An Investigation of the Efficiency of Insurance Companies in Vietnam - Using Data Envelopment Analysis and Malmquist Index

  • NGUYEN, Bao Ngoc;NGUYEN, Phuong Anh
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.7
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    • pp.261-271
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    • 2022
  • Over the last 20 years, the insurance industry in Vietnam has been rapidly growing with an average annual growth rate of 21%, one of the most active markets in Southeast Asia, raising the question of efficiency to managers, investors, and regulators. This article is one of the first research works using Data Envelopment Analysis combined with the Malmquist index over the period from 2016 to 2020 for 37 insurance firms in Vietnam to investigate the efficiency of this sector. The value-added approach is employed with total equity and operating expenses as inputs, finance income, and gross written premium as outputs. The findings reveal that most of Vietnam's insurance companies are operating quite effectively, and the non-life sector is more efficient than the life sector. There is also a regression in efficiency change, while there is a progression in technological change and total factor productivity change during the period examined. The goal of this research is to give a fundamental understanding of the overall efficiency of insurance firms in Vietnam, and help managers, investors, policyholders, and government agencies make better decisions regarding self-assessment, M&A activities, deregulation... Consequently, the insurance sector could improve in terms of efficiency and develop sustainably over time.

An Exploratory Study on the Prediction of Business Survey Index Using Data Mining (기업경기실사지수 예측에 대한 탐색적 연구: 데이터 마이닝을 이용하여)

  • Kyungbo Park;Mi Ryang Kim
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.123-140
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    • 2023
  • In recent times, the global economy has been subject to increasing volatility, which has made it considerably more difficult to accurately predict economic indicators compared to previous periods. In response to this challenge, the present study conducts an exploratory investigation that aims to predict the Business Survey Index (BSI) by leveraging data mining techniques on both structured and unstructured data sources. For the structured data, we have collected information regarding foreign, domestic, and industrial conditions, while the unstructured data consists of content extracted from newspaper articles. By employing an extensive set of 44 distinct data mining techniques, our research strives to enhance the BSI prediction accuracy and provide valuable insights. The results of our analysis demonstrate that the highest predictive power was attained when using data exclusively from the t-1 period. Interestingly, this suggests that previous timeframes play a vital role in forecasting the BSI effectively. The findings of this study hold significant implications for economic decision-makers, as they will not only facilitate better-informed decisions but also serve as a robust foundation for predicting a wide range of other economic indicators. By improving the prediction of crucial economic metrics, this study ultimately aims to contribute to the overall efficacy of economic policy-making and decision processes.

Does Natural Disasters Have an Impact on Poverty in East Java, Indonesia?

  • SANTOSO, Dwi Budi;AULIA, Dynda Fadhlillah
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.57-66
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    • 2023
  • There is a strong association between poverty levels and the probability of natural disasters. East Java, however, exhibits a distinct pattern. While the rate of poverty is declining, natural disasters are becoming more severe. Considering that East Java is an area with a high risk of natural disasters and a high poverty rate, this study aims to estimate the effect of environmental preservation and the magnitude of the impact of disasters as measured by the Disaster Risk Index (IRBI) on poverty. The 3SLS model is used on secondary data from 38 districts/cities from 2015 to 2021 as an analytical database. Based on the estimation results, there are 3 findings in this study: (i) the role of government, population development, and economic activity have a strong influence on nature conservation; (ii) nature conservation has a strong influence on disaster risk; and (iii) the disaster risk index has a strong effect on poverty. As a result, areas with a high level of disaster risk have a slower rate of poverty reduction. The role of this research is to show the need for the government's role in improving the quality of natural disaster mitigation anticipation, economic activity, and the role of the population in a sustainable manner.

An Exploratory Study on the Development of Evaluation Factors in Franchise System: Symbiosis Index (프랜차이즈 시스템의 평가 지표 개발을 위한 탐색전 연구 - 공생지수(symbiosis index)를 중심으로 -)

  • Choi, Sung-Sik;Kim, Hong-Seok;Ku, Bon-Hyuk;Lee, Weon-Ho;Na, Hwa-Sook;Han, Kyu-Chul
    • The Korean Journal of Franchise Management
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.65-85
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    • 2010
  • The key success factors for Franchise Enterprise as a virtual company which is established based on franchise system are the competitiveness of sub-systems in franchise system such as franchisor, franchisee, vendor(supplier), and customer, and to sustain the symbiotic relationship among sub-systems. In this regard, evaluating franchise system is considered to be implemented in different contexts and methods comparing with extant evaluation system in franchise business which is more focused on the relationship between franchisor and franchisee. The flagship role of establishing franchise system is to be franchisor system, however, the symbiotic relationship among other sub-system including franchisee, vendor, and customer leads to successful Franchise Enterprise. The purpose of this study is to research existing evaluation systems for franchise business and to explore the model of evaluating franchise system, what is called, "Symbiosis Index".

COVID-19 Fear Index and Stock Market (COVID-19 공포지수와 주식시장)

  • Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.11 no.9
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    • pp.84-93
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze whether the spread of COVID-19 infectious diseases acts as a fear to investors and affects the direction and volatility of stock returns. The investor fear index was proposed using the domestic confirmed patient information of COVID-19, and the influence on stock prices was empirically analyzed. The direction and volatility models of stock prices used the Granger causality and GARCH models, respectively. The results of empirical analysis using the KOSPI index from February 20, 2020 to June 30, 2021 are as follows: First, the COVID-19 fear index showed causality to future stock prices. Second, the COVID-19 fear index has a negative effect on the volatility of KOSPI index returns. In future studies, it is necessary to document the cause by using individual business performance and stock price instead of the stock index.