• KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
• /
• v.6 no.9
• /
• pp.437-444
• /
• 2017

Although many studies tried to predict movie revenues in the last decade, the main focus is still to learn an efficient forecast model to fit the box-office revenues. However, the previous works lack the analysis about why the prediction errors occur, and no method is proposed to reduce the errors. In this paper, we consider the prediction error comes from the competition between the movies that are released in the same period. Our purpose is to analyze the competition value for a movie and to predict how much it will be affected by other competitors so as to improve the performance of movie box-office prediction. In order to predict the competition value, firstly, we classify its sign (positive/negative) and compute the probability of positive sign and the probability of negative sign. Secondly, we forecast the competition value by regression under the condition that its sign is positive and negative respectively. And finally, we calculate the expectation of competition value based on the probabilities and values. With the predicted competition, we can adjust the primal predicted box-office. Our experimental results show that predictive competition can help improve the performance of the forecast.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
• /
• v.16 no.9
• /
• pp.405-412
• /
• 2018

When a film company decides whether to invest or not in a scenario is the appropriate time to predict box office success. In response to market demands, AI based scenario analysis service has been launched, yet the algorithm is by no means perfect. The purpose of this study is to present a prediction model of movie scenario's box office hit based on human brain processing mechanism. In order to derive patterns of visual, auditory, and cognitive stimuli on the time spectrum of box office animation hit, this study applied Weber's law and brain mechanism. The results are as follow. First, the frequency of brain stimulation in the biggest box office movies was 1.79 times greater than that in the failure movies. Second, in the box office success, the cognitive stimuli codes are spread evenly, whereas in the failure, concentrated among few intervals. Third, in the box office success movie, cognitive stimuli which have big cognition load appeared alone, whereas visual and auditory stimuli which have little cognitive load appeared simultaneously.

• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
• /
• v.26 no.2
• /
• pp.19-43
• /
• 2021

The prediction of box office performance in performing arts institutions is an important issue in the performing arts industry and institutions. For this, traditional prediction methodology and data mining methodology using standardized data such as cast members, performance venues, and ticket prices have been proposed. However, although it is evident that audiences tend to seek out their intentions by the performance guide poster, few attempts were made to predict box office performance by analyzing poster images. Hence, the purpose of this study is to propose a deep learning application method that can predict box office success through performance-related poster images. Prediction was performed using deep learning algorithms such as Pure CNN, VGG-16, Inception-v3, and ResNet50 using poster images published on the KOPIS as learning data set. In addition, an ensemble with traditional regression analysis methodology was also attempted. As a result, it showed high discrimination performance exceeding 85% of box office prediction accuracy. This study is the first attempt to predict box office success using image data in the performing arts field, and the method proposed in this study can be applied to the areas of poster-based advertisements such as institutional promotions and corporate product advertisements.

• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
• /
• v.25 no.2
• /
• pp.49-63
• /
• 2020

The accurate prediction of box office in the early stage is crucial for film industry to make better managerial decision. With aims to improve the prediction performance, the purpose of this paper is to evaluate the use of machine learning methods. We tested both classification and regression based methods including k-NN, SVM and Random Forest. We first evaluate input variables, which show that reputation-related information generated during the first two-week period after release is significant. Prediction test results show that regression based methods provides lower prediction error, and Random Forest particularly outperforms other machine learning methods. Regression based method has better prediction power when films have small box office earnings. On the other hand, classification based method works better for predicting large box office earnings.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
• /
• v.19 no.4
• /
• pp.169-182
• /
• 2017

Predicting a box office gross in the film industry is an important goal. Many works have analyzed the elements of a film making. Previous studies have suggested several methods for predicting box office such as a model for distinguishing people's reactions by using a sentiment analysis, a study on the period of influence of word-of-mouth effect through SNS. These works discover that a word of mouth (WOM) effect through SNS influences customers' choice of movies. Therefore, this study analyzes correlations between a box office gross and a ratio of people reaction to a certain movie by extracting their feedback on the film from before and after of the film opening. In this work, people's reactions to the movie are categorized into positive, neutral, and negative opinions by employing sentiment analysis. In order to proceed the research analyses in this work, North American tweets are collected between March 2011 and August 2012. There is no correlation for each analysis that has been conducted in this work, hereby rate of tweets before and after opening of movies does not have relationship between a box office gross.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
• /
• v.12 no.8
• /
• pp.4090-4102
• /
• 2018

After emerging online communications, text mining and sentiment analysis has been frequently applied into analyzing electronic word-of-mouth. This study aims to develop a domain-specific lexicon of sentiment analysis to predict box office success in Korea film market and validate the feasibility of the lexicon. Natural language processing, a machine learning algorithm, and a lexicon-based sentiment classification method are employed. To create a movie domain sentiment lexicon, 233,631 reviews of 147 movies with popularity ratings is collected by a XML crawling package in R program. We accomplished 81.69% accuracy in sentiment classification by the Korean sentiment dictionary including 706 negative words and 617 positive words. The result showed a stronger positive relationship with box office success and consumers' sentiment as well as a significant positive effect in the linear regression for the predicting model. In addition, it reveals emotion in the user-generated content can be a more accurate clue to predict business success.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
• /
• v.25 no.6
• /
• pp.35-47
• /
• 2020

Box-office prediction is important to movie stakeholders. It is necessary to accurately predict box-office and select important variables. In this paper, we propose a multivariate time series classification and important variable selection method to improve accuracy of predicting the box-office. As a research method, we collected daily data from KOBIS and NAVER for South Korean movies, selected important variables using Random Forest and predicted multivariate time series using Deep Learning. Based on the Korean screen quota system, Deep Learning was used to compare the accuracy of box-office predictions on the 73^rd day from movie release with the important variables and entire variables, and the results was tested whether they are statistically significant. As a Deep Learning model, Multi-Layer Perceptron, Fully Convolutional Neural Networks, and Residual Network were used. Among the Deep Learning models, the model using important variables and Residual Network had the highest prediction accuracy at 93%.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.29 no.7
• /
• pp.1257-1270
• /
• 2016

This study deals with the prediction of the total number of movie audiences as a measure for the box office. Prediction is performed by classification techniques of data mining such as decision tree, multilayer perceptron(MLP) neural network model, multinomial logit model, and support vector machine over time such as before movie release, release day, after release one week, and after release two weeks. Predictors used are: online word-of-mouth(OWOM) variables such as the portal movie rating, the number of the portal movie rater, and blog; in addition, other variables include showing the inherent properties of the film (such as nationality, grade, release month, release season, directors, actors, distributors, the number of audiences, and screens). When using 10-fold cross validation technique, the accuracy of the neural network model showed more than 90 % higher predictability before movie release. In addition, it can be seen that the accuracy of the prediction increases by adding estimates of the final OWOM variables as predictors.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.20 no.8
• /
• pp.10-18
• /
• 2020

Among various contents industry, this study especially focused on music industry and tried to develop a prediction model for music box office using deep learning. The deep learning prediction model designed to predict music chart-in period based on 17 variables -singer power, singer influence, featuring singer power, featuring singer influence, number of participating singers, gender of participating singers, lyric writer power, composer power, arranger power, production agency power, distributing agency power, title track, LIKEs on streaming platform, comments on streaming platform, pre-promotion article, teaser-video view, first-week performance. Additionally we conducted a linear regression analysis to sort out factors, and tried to compare the prediction performance between the original DNN prediction model and the DNN model made of sorted out factors.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.24 no.4
• /
• pp.67-83
• /
• 2018

The Korean film industry with significant increase every year exceeded the number of cumulative audiences of 200 million people in 2013 finally. However, starting from 2015 the Korean film industry entered a period of low growth and experienced a negative growth after all in 2016. To overcome such difficulty, stakeholders like production company, distribution company, multiplex have attempted to maximize the market returns using strategies of predicting change of market and of responding to such market change immediately. Since a film is classified as one of experiential products, it is not easy to predict a box office record and the initial number of audiences before the film is released. And also, the number of audiences fluctuates with a variety of factors after the film is released. So, the production company and distribution company try to be guaranteed the number of screens at the opining time of a newly released by multiplex chains. However, the multiplex chains tend to open the screening schedule during only a week and then determine the number of screening of the forthcoming week based on the box office record and the evaluation of audiences. Many previous researches have conducted to deal with the prediction of box office records of films. In the early stage, the researches attempted to identify factors affecting the box office record. And nowadays, many studies have tried to apply various analytic techniques to the factors identified previously in order to improve the accuracy of prediction and to explain the effect of each factor instead of identifying new factors affecting the box office record. However, most of previous researches have limitations in that they used the total number of audiences from the opening to the end as a target variable, and this makes it difficult to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to predict the weekly number of audiences of a newly released film so that the stakeholder can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film. To that end, we considered the factors used in the previous studies affecting box office and developed new factors not used in previous studies such as the order of opening of movies, dynamics of sales. Along with the comprehensive factors, we used the machine learning method such as Random Forest, Multi Layer Perception, Support Vector Machine, and Naive Bays, to predict the number of cumulative visitors from the first week after a film release to the third week. At the point of the first and the second week, we predicted the cumulative number of visitors of the forthcoming week for a released film. And at the point of the third week, we predict the total number of visitors of the film. In addition, we predicted the total number of cumulative visitors also at the point of the both first week and second week using the same factors. As a result, we found the accuracy of predicting the number of visitors at the forthcoming week was higher than that of predicting the total number of them in all of three weeks, and also the accuracy of the Random Forest was the highest among the machine learning methods we used. This study has implications in that this study 1) considered various factors comprehensively which affect the box office record and merely addressed by other previous researches such as the weekly rating of audiences after release, the weekly rank of the film after release, and the weekly sales share after release, and 2) tried to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically by suggesting models which predicts the weekly number of audiences of newly released films so that the stakeholders can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film.