• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.25-35
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• 2005

This paper describes the mechanism for new investment to appear in waves of boom and bust causing alternative periods of over and under supply of electricity in Korean market. A system dynamics model was developed to describe the dynamic behavior of new investment in Korean market. The simulation results show the boom and bust cycle in the new investments. When the market price is high, investors decide to build new power plants. However, it takes some delay time to complete new power plants. When the new power plants are being added into the grid, the supply increases and the wholesale price begins to decrease. This causes the cancellation of new power plant or delay the construction. This mechanism causes the boom and bust cycle in new investment.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.5-20
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• 2006

In the advent of ubiquitous information technology (u-IT) as a new emerging horizon of information society, inflated expectations regarding u-IT are growing very fast and higher than those made in the past, which would perhaps result in serious bust after boom and incur tremendous amount of social costs. This paper thus investigates a dynamic mechanism underlying the coevolution between information technology and society by applying systems thinking, particularly, with a focus on the typical phenomenon, 'hype curve' which shows how new technologies initially grow too fast for their own good, crashing from a peak of inflated expectations into a trough of disillusionment before stabilizing on a plateau of productivity. Three basic questions are explored to answer by investigating the mechanisms underlying the 'boom-bust' phenomenon: First, why hype curve appears in the process of technology and society coevolution. Second, how to enhance the stabilization level. Third, when is the right time for the policy intervention.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.13 no.8
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• pp.61-71
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• 2015

Purpose - Before the year 2000, the housing prices in Korea were increasing every decade. After 2000, for the first time, Korea experienced a decrease in housing prices, and the repetitive cycle of price fluctuation started. Such a "boom and bust cycle" is a worldwide phenomenon. The current study proposes a mathematical model to explain price fluctuation cycles based on the theory of consumer psychology. Specifically, the model incorporates the effects of buyer expectations of future prices on actual price changes. Based on the model, this study investigates various independent variables affecting the amplitude of price fluctuations in housing markets. Research design, data, and methodology - The study provides theoretical analyses based on a mathematical model. The proposed model uses the following assumptions of the pricing mechanism in housing markets. First, the price of a house at a certain time is affected not only by its current price but also by its expected future price. Second, house investors or buyers cannot predict the exact future price but make a subjective prediction based on observed price changes up to the present. Third, the price is determined by demand changes made in previous time periods. The current study tries to explain the boom-bust cycle in housing markets with a mathematical model and several numerical examples. The model illustrates the effects of consumer price elasticity, consumer sensitivity to price changes, and the sensitivity of prices to demand changes on price fluctuation. Results - The analytical results imply that even without external effects, the boom-bust cycle can occur endogenously due to buyer psychological factors. The model supports the expectation of future price direction as the most important variable causing price fluctuation in housing market. Consumer tendency for making choices based on both the current and expected future price causes repetitive boom-bust cycles in housing markets. Such consumers who respond more sensitively to price changes are shown to make the market more volatile. Consumer price elasticity is shown to be irrelevant to price fluctuations. Conclusions - The mechanism of price fluctuation in the proposed model can be summarized as follows. If a certain external shock causes an initial price increase, consumers perceive it as an ongoing increasing price trend. If the demand increases due to the higher expected price, the price goes up further. However, too high a price cannot be sustained for long, thus the increasing price trend ceases at some point. Once the market loses the momentum of a price increase, the price starts to drop. A price decrease signals a further decrease in a future price, thus the demand decreases further. When the price is perceived as low enough, the direction of the price change is reversed again. Policy makers should be cognizant that the current increase in housing prices due to increased liquidity can pose a serious threat of a sudden price decrease in housing markets.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.43-60
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• 2002

This paper describes the forecast of wholesale price in competitive Korean electricity market using the system dynamics approach. The system dynamics concepts have been implemented with the Ithink software. This software facilitates the development of stock and flow model with information feedback. Using this model, the future wholesale electricity price can be computed hour by hour, quarterly, and yearly. This model also gives the energy planner the opportunity to create different scenarios for the future of deregulated wholesale markets in Korea. Also It will lead to increased understanding of competitive wholesale market as a complex, dynamic system. Research results show that the plant construction appeared in waves of boom and bust in Korean electricity market like real estate construction. That is, the Korea wholesale market's new power plants and the market price will appear the Boom and Bust cycle. It is very similar behavior as real estate industry. In case of consideration of DSM program, The DSM savings lead to a somewhat different timing of the booms in construction and of price spikes. But the DSM programs do not eliminated the fundamental dynamics of the boom and bust. And the wholesale price is maintained at the lower level compared to the case of without DSM program. However, the unexpected result is found that due to the lower market price, Investor make significantly less investment in new CCs, which leads to the higher wholesale price after 2010. It suggests that the DSM Policy must be implemented with the dynamics of competitive Electricity Market.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.5-13
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• 2018

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to look into some alternative for Korean shipping to overcome difficult situations in shipping, since then it is economic crisis at the end of 2000s. Research design, data, and methodology - The research method to be adopted is first to review theoretical overview about shipping cycle, and then examine difficult shipping situations and studies management aspect, which is to related to establishment of Korea Shipping Council. Results - The boom and bust situations in shipping market have been identified as result of economic crisis at the end of 2000s. Trade volumes have fallen and shipping tonnage has risen respectively. In practical terms, shipping industry has suffered from difficult situations, following to supply and demand of shipping market, and Korean shipping had to face hard time as well, according to lack of management ability of shipping company. Alternatively, it should be asked shipping forum like Korea Shipping Council. Conclusions - From situations of shipping markets since the end of 2000s, it is strongly asked that every parties got involved in shipping business should understand and share more expertise and knowledge of shipping market, which is finally related to decision- making process in shipping.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.221-240
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper investigates how business cycle impacts on corporate credit spreads since global financial crisis. Furthermore, it tests how the impact changes by the phase of the cycle. Design/methodology/approach - This study collected dataset from Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index through the Bloomberg. It conducted multi-regression analysis by projecting business cycle using Hodrick-Prescott filtering and various cyclical variables, while ran dynamic analysis of 5-variable Vector Error Correction Model to confirm the robustness of the test. Findings - First, it proves to be statistically significant that corporate credit spreads have moved countercyclicaly since the crisis. Second, It indicates that the corporate credit spread's countercyclicality to the macroeconomic changes works symmetrically by the phase of the cycle. Third, the VECM supports that business cycle's impact on the spreads maintains more sustainably than other explanatory variable does in the model. Research implications or Originality - It becomes more appealing to accurately measure the real economic impact on corporate credit spreads as the interaction between credit and business cycle deepens. The economic impact on the spreads works symmetrically by boom and bust, which implies that the market stress could impact as another negative driver during the bust. Finally, the business cycle's sustainable impact on the spreads supports the fact that the economic recovery is the key driver for the resilience of credit cycle.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.101-113
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• 2021

This paper inquires the macro-economic factors that may affect the corporate venture capital (CVC) from an industrial organization theory perspective. Unlike existing studies focusing CVC investments related to parent corporates' strategic intention, we identified CVC firm as an independent financial investor affected by macro environment and industrial structure. Specifically, we empirically investigate whether and how industry's boom, exogenous crisis, economic growth, and competition intensity affect the CVC investment for a data set of investment in the U.S. based corporate venture capital industry, 1996-2017. The empirical data analyzed in the study contained a total of 84 U.S. based CVC firms and their 2,306 investments from 1996 until 2017. After conducting a time-series negative binomial analysis, our empirical analyses suggest that the CVC investments are affected negatively by exogenous crisis and competition intensity, and positively by industrial boom and economic growth. we found the significance and direction of our independent variables strongly supported all of our four hypotheses in a highly robust manner. The results of this study are expected to contribute the literatures of corporate venture capital and venture investment by illustrating which macro-economic and industrial structure factors affect CVC investment decision to adapt to dynamic environmental change beside strategic intention of CVC firm's parent corporates.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.171-197
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• 2008

By applying Systems Simulation technique, this paper aims to investigates the dynamics underlying the coevolution of IT(information technology) and the society. Particularly, a series of basic questions are explored to answer by developing a simulation model for the mechanisms underlying the 'hype curve' ever occurring in the course of technology diffusion into society: First, why hype curve appears in the process of technology and society coevolution. Second, how to enhance the tapering level at the final stage of coevolution. Third, what are the key policy leverages and when is the right time for the policy intervention. As now, inflated expectations regarding ubiquitous information technology (u-IT) are growing very fast and higher than those for the previous technologies, which would result in overshoot followed by collapse of visibility and thus incur tremendous amount of social costs. In this regard implications drawn from this study perhaps give some insights not necessarily to the academics but also to the practitioners and policy makers facing the advent of u-IT as a new emerging horizon of information society.

• New & Renewable Energy
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.33-43
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• 2012

Why solar companies preferred vertical integration of whole value chain? Major solar companies have built internally strong vertical integration of entire PV value chain. We raise a question whether such integration increases the corporate value and whether market situation affects the result. To test these questions, we conducted multi-variant analysis where characteristic factors mainly affect the corporate value measured in terms of Tobin'Q, based on the financial and non-financial data of PV companies listed in US stock market between 2005 and 2010. We hypothesize that since integration increases the overall efficiency but decreases the flexibility to adjust to various market situation, the combined effect of the efficiency gain and the flexibility loss ultimately determines the sign of integration effect on the corporate vale. We infer that the combined effect will be influenced heavily by business cycle, as in boom market (Seller's market) the efficiency gain may be larger than the flexibility loss and vice versa in bust market. We test whether the sign of combined effect changes after the year of 2009 and which factors influence most the sign. Year of 2009 is known as the year when market shifted from Seller's to Buyer's market. We show that 1) integration increases corporate value in general but after 2009 integration significantly decreases the value, 2) the ratios such as Production/Total Cost, Cash turnover period chosen for reversal of the flexibility measure are negatively affect Tobin's Q and especially stronger after 2009. This shows the flexibility improves corporate value and stronger in the recess period (Buyer's market). These results imply that solar company should set up integration strategy considering the tradeoff between efficiency and flexibility and the impact of the business cycle on both factors. Strategy only based on the price competitiveness determined in boom time can bring undesirable outcomes to the company. In addition, Strategic alliances in some value chains as a flexible bondage should be taken in account as complementary choice to the rigid integration.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.43 no.5
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• pp.659-666
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• 2023

Characterized by boom-and-bust cycles, low entry barriers, and an almost perfectly competitive structure, the construction industry presents a unique challenge for the survival and growth of its constituent companies. A crucial aspect of this challenge is the ongoing monitoring of their financial health and business performance. To understand the typical financial and operational status of construction companies, this study analyzes the financial statements of 6,252 such companies, all of which have undergone at least one external audit between 2000 and 2019. These statements were used to develop combined financial profiles and derive industry averages. The findings indicate that the construction industry experiences limited growth in sales and profitability. High leverage ratios can jeopardize financial stability, pushing companies to seek production efficiency, such as enhancing gross asset turnover. This tendency has been particularly noticeable in the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2008.