• The Journal of Information Systems
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.241-265
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• 2020

Purpose Various machine learning techniques are used to implement for predicting corporate credit. However, previous research doesn't utilize time series input features and has a limited prediction timing. Furthermore, in the case of corporate bond credit rating forecast, corporate sample is limited because only large companies are selected for corporate bond credit rating. To address limitations of prior research, this study attempts to implement a predictive model with more sample companies, which can adjust the forecasting point at the present time by using the credit score information and corporate information in time series. Design/methodology/approach To implement this forecasting model, this study uses the sample of 2,191 companies with KIS credit scores for 18 years from 2000 to 2017. For improving the performance of the predictive model, various financial and non-financial features are applied as input variables in a time series through a sliding window technique. In addition, this research also tests various machine learning techniques that were traditionally used to increase the validity of analysis results, and the deep learning technique that is being actively researched of late. Findings RNN-based stateful LSTM model shows good performance in credit rating prediction. By extending the forecasting time point, we find how the performance of the predictive model changes over time and evaluate the feature groups in the short and long terms. In comparison with other studies, the results of 5 classification prediction through label reclassification show good performance relatively. In addition, about 90% accuracy is found in the bad credit forecasts.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.21 no.48
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• pp.133-144
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• 1998

International capital movement has made progress at global liberalization of finance and foreign exchange, international monetary norm changing into floating exchange rate system, easiness of collection of information and trade at improvement of information communication technology from early of 1970's. Results of empirical test for relation between foreign exchange rate or various determination factors of foreign exchange rate and interest rate are followed by next sentences. First, according to relation between foreign exchange rate and interest rate, correlation for each of variables after OECD entrance is increased. But, long-term & short-term interest rate is affected by Hanbo & Kia's bankruptcy, continuous large scale corporates bankruptcy and crisis of foreign exchange. Therefore, financial instability is occured. If portfolio investment fund has been inflow as it is mollified by continuous shortage of foreign exchange and fall of country's credit rating, it is expected to have positive effect for long-term & short-term interest rate from appreciation of won against dollar. Second, results from relation between determination factor of foreign exchange rate and interest rate are followed by next sentences. If surplus of current account and goods account is continued, yield of corporate bond is to be stable. But, margin of surplus is expected to diminish after second quarter 98, and difference between external and domestic interest (after adjusting foreign exchange rate) is to be diminished. And if net inflows of foreign investor's fund (stock and bond) is diminished, it is to have negative effect for yield of corporate bond. According to foreign investor's investment movement of previous years, hedge fund were stayed at least during two years in Mexico. It means that sudden capital outflow is not to be happened at Korea. But if external factors from depreciation of yen and China's renminbi are instable, interest rate is expected to increase from capital's outflows. Third, if it is to decrease instability of foreign exchange rate from increase in surplus of future current account, credit rating's upwardness, stability of yen and renminbi, foreign exchange rate is expected to be stable. It is expected to have continuous stability from short-term interest rate to long-term interest rate in this empirical test.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2002.11a
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• pp.305-319
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• 2002

International capital movement has made progress at global liberalization of finance and foreign exchange, international monetary norm changing into floating exchange rate system, easiness of collection of information and trade at improvement of information communication technology from early of 1970's. Results of empirical test for relation between foreign exchange rate or various determination factors of foreign exchange rate and interest rate are followed by next sentences. First, according to relation between foreign exchange rate and interest rate, correlation for each of variables after OECD entrance is increased. But, long-term ＆short-term interest rate is affected by Hanbo ＆ Kia's bankruptcy, continuous large scale coporates bankruptcy and crisis of foreign exchange. Therefore, financial instability is occured. If portfolio investment fund has been inflow as it is mollified by continuous shortage of foreign exchange and fall of country's credit rating, it is expected to have positive effect for long-term & short-term interest rate from appreciation of won against dollar. Second, results from relation between determination factor of foreign exchange rate and interest rate are followed by next sentences. If surplus of current account and goods account is continued, yield of corporate bond is to be stable. But, margin of surplus is expected to diminish after second quarter 98, and difference between external and domestic interest (after adjusting foreign exchange rate) is to be diminished. And if net inflows of foreign investor's fund (stock and bond) is diminished, it is to have negative effect for yield of corporate bond. According to foreign investor's investment movement of previous years, hedge md were stayed at least during two years in Mexico. It means that sudden capital outflow is not to be happened at Korea. But if external factors from depreciation of yen and China's renminbi are instable, interest rate is expected to increase from capital's outflows. Third, if it is to decrease instability of foreign exchange rate from increase in surplus of future current account, credit rating's upwardness, stability of yen and renminbi, foreign exchange rate is expected to be stable. It is expected to have continuous stability from short-term interest rate to long-term interest rate in this empirical test.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.113-130
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• 2015

This study considers the relation between firms' earnings management and credit rating. Unlike preceding papers only focusing earnings management by accrual(thereafter, AM), this paper examines the effect of accrual earnings management(AMs) and real earning management(thereafter, RM) on credit rating. RMs have more negative effects on firms' forward cash flow generation abilities and long term operating performances than AMs. So, RMs are more negative signals for credit analysts than AMs. But credit analysts have much difficulty in seeing through RM, because if credit analysts want to find out RMs, they have to understand firms' internal operating activities, cost structures, receivables collection practices, and review whether profit distortions are due to abnormal change of them. Sample of this study consists of 2,150firm-year data listed companies from 2002 to 2010. Empirical evidence shows that AMs and RMs are negatively related to credit rating. This result implies that credit analysts see through AMs and RMs in interpreting financial informations, that is to say, they discount credit rating in considering level of earnings management that consist of real activity and accrual earning management. This paper also finds that RMs are more negatively related to credit ratings than AMs. This result suggests that credit analysts don't take RMs into account in credit rating process as much as AMs.

• Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.59-66
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• 2012

Autoclaved Lightweight Concrete(ALC) features such as a high performance insulation, the fire resistance, the advantage of easy handing construction, and lightweight panels applied the curtain wall system. ALC materials are certified as non-toxic environmental and eco-friendly productions. But ALC external panels mixed with blast furnace slag pounder and silica fume have to be coated with a stucco compound or plaster because of resisting the ambient environment. This study is that mixing tests to evaluate a performance analysis of exterior paints to be make-up pigments(organic or inorganic) coated with panel surface. Testing compared by KS F 2476; flow test, KS F 2426; compression strength test, KS F 2762; bond strength test. In results, the case of the inorganic binder, ratio of alumina cement : anhydrite is 90:10 to 80:20 at the highest level of intensity. In the case of the organic binder, adhesive strength rating at surface of ALC, the pullout strength is below 0.5 $N/mm^2$ but the normal concrete is over 2.0$N/mm^2$. A contents ratio of EVA resin is more than 3% and then bond strength is effectively.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.16 no.12
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• pp.175-183
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• 2018

This study analyzes determinants of bond returns in terms of systematic risk versus idiosyncratic risk by examining relationship among those factors. First we examined the cross-sectional determinants of corporate bond returns with Korean bond market data from 2001 to 2014. This paper uses term factor and default factor for systematic risk, and duration factor and credit rating factor for idiosyncratic risk. The empirical result shows that systematic risk can explain cross-sectional differences of bond returns rather than idiosyncratic risk which is the same result in advanced markets(US or Europe). This result is different from the previous Korean studies which showed that idiosyncratic risk is more important than systematic risk in Korean bond market. The reason for the different result may be the longer sample period which includes the most recent period. It is insisted that Korean bond market is getting more synchronized with the advanced bond market. In conclusion, this empirical result implies that Korean bond portfolio managers should focus on systematic risk, which is contrary to current system in Korean asset management industry.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.22 no.50
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• pp.105-125
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• 1999

The results of analysis on foreign exchange market, stock and financial market after January of 1997 are that foreign exchange market will be affected by stock and financial market volatility about 1999. This means that stock and financial market are more stable than foreign exchange market. This also is supported by ‘financial market forecast of 1999 in Daewoo Economic Research Institute’. After won/dollar (end of period) will be increasing in 1,430 at second quarter of 1999, this is to downward 1,200 fourth quarter of 1999. This is somewhat based on government's higher exchange rate policy. But, after yield of corporate bond is to 11.0% at first quarter of 1999, this will be stable to 10.2% at fourth quarter. During the first quarter of 1999, yield of corporate bond is to somewhat increasing through sovereign debt and public bonds, technical adjustment of interest rate. After this, yield of corporate bond will be stable according to stability of price, magnification of money supply, restucturing of firms. So, stock market is favorably affected by stability of financial market. But, the pension and fund of USA, i.e., long-term portfolio investment fund, are injected through international firm's management. It is included by openness of audit, fair market about foreign investors. Finally, Moody's strong rating on the won-denominated bonds suggest that Korea's sovereign debt ratings could be restored to an investment grade in the near future. It sequentially includes inflow of foreign portfolio investment fund, fall of won/dollar foreign exchange rate (appreciation of won) and stability of yield of corporate bond.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2005.11a
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• pp.569-579
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• 2005

International capital movement has made progress at global liberalization of finance and foreign exchange, international monetary norm changing into floating exchange rate system, easiness of collection of information and trade at improvement of information communication technology from early of 1970's. Results of empirical test for relation between foreign exchange rate or various determination factors of foreign exchange rate and interest rate are followed by next sentences. First, according to relation between foreign exchange rate and interest rate, correlation for each of variables after OECD entrance is increased. 'But, long-term & short-term interest rate is affected by Hanbo & Kia's bankruptcy, continuous large scale coporates bankruptcy and crisis of foreign exchange. Therefore, financial instability is occured. If portfolio investment fund has been inflow as it is mollified by continuous shortage of foreign exchange and fall of country's credit rating, it is expected to have positive effect for long-term & short-term interest rate from appreciation of won against dollar. Second, results from relation between determination factor of foreign exchange rate and interest rate are followed by next sentences. If surplus of current account and goods account is continued, yield of corporate bond is to be stable. But, margin of surplus is expected to diminish after second quarter 98, and difference between external and domestic interest (after adjusting foreign exchange rate) is to be diminished. And if net inflows of foreign investor's fund (stock and bond) is diminished, it is to have negative effect for yield of corporate bond. According to foreign investor's investment movement of previous years, hedge fund were stayed at least during two years in Mexico. It means that sudden capital outflow is not to be happened at Korea.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.99-123
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• 2004

We focus in this study on incremental financing decisions and estimate a logit model for the probability a firm will choose a private placement over a public bond issue. We hypothesize that information asymmetry, financial risk, agent cost, and proprietary information may affect a firm's choice between public debt and private placements. We find that as the size of firm increases, the probability of choosing a private placement declines significantly. The age of the firm, however, is not a significant factor affecting the firm's choice between public and privately-placed bond. The coefficients on the firm's leverage and non-investment grade dummy are significantly positive, meaning firms with high financial risk and credit risk select private placements. The findings regarding agency-related variables, PER and Tobin's Q, are somewhat complex. We find significant evidence that firms with high PER prefer private placements to public bonds, suggesting that borrowers with options to engage in asset substitution or underinvestment are more likely to choose private placements. The coefficient of Tobin's Q is negative, but not significant, which weakly support the hold-up hypothesis. When we construct an interaction term on the Tobin's Q with a non-investment rating dummy, however, the Tobin's Q interaction term becomes positive and significant. Thus, high Tobin's Q firms with a speculative rating are significantly more likely to choose a private placement, regardless of the potential hold-up problems. The ratio of R&D to sales, proxy for proprietary information, is positively significant. This result can be interpreted as evidence in favor of a role for proprietary information in the debt sourcing decision process for these firms.

• Restorative Dentistry and Endodontics
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.502-514
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• 2002

The aim of this study was to evaluate the marginal adaptation of direct class II sandwich restoration with packable composites(P-60), resin modified glass ionomer cement(Fuji-II LC), flowable compomer(Dyract Flow), flowable composites(Filtek Flow) in comparison with total bond restorations. In addition, for sandwich restorations, influence of different sandwich techniques was also evaluated. Large butt-joint box typed class II cavites with cervical margins 1mm below the cemento-enamel junction were cut into 70 extracted human molars. The cavities(7 groups, n=10) were filled using a closed/open sandwich restoration or total bond restoration technique with materials according to the manufacturer's recommandation using the single-component bonding agent for each system. Teeth were thermocycled 500 times between 5$^{\circ}C$ and 55$^{\circ}C$ with 30-second dwell time. The teeth were then coated with nail polish 1mm short of the restoration, placed in a 2% methylene blue for 24 hours, and sectioned with diamond wheel. Sections were examined with a stereoscope to determine the extent of microleakage. Dentine /Cementum margins were analyzed for microleakage on scale of 0(no leakage) to 4(entire axial wall) and interface between materials, on scale of 0(no leakage) to 3(axial wall). Results were evaluated with Kruskal Wallis Test, corrected for ties, to determine whether there were statistically significant differences among the seven groups. Pairs of groups were analyzed using the Student-Newman-Keuls Method and Dunn s Method. The results were as follows : 1. All groups showed some micoleakage in cervical portion. But there were no microleakage in interface between materials. 2. Closed sandwich restorations with Fuji-II LC and Filtek Flow had significantly lower leakage rating than total restorations with only P-60. However, open sandwich restorations with Dyract Flow showed significantly higher (P<0.05) 3. Closed sandwich restorations had significantly lower leakage rating than total restorations. However open sandwich restoration s showed significantly higher (P<0.05). 4. Sandwich restorations with Fuji-II LC were iou$.$or leakage than only P-60. Filtek Flow, Dyract Flow. But there were no statistically differences among the materials. From the results above, it could be concluded, closed sandwich restorations was effective in reducing microleakage of class II restorations. The best results showing the least microleakage were for the closed sandwich technique with Fuji-II LC and Filtek Flow.