• Economic Analysis
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.1-42
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• 2021

The outlook for Korea's consumer price inflation rate has a profound impact not only on the Bank of Korea's operation of the inflation target system but also on the overall economy, including the bond market and private consumption and investment. This study presents the prediction results of consumer price inflation in Korea for the next three years. To this end, first, model selection is performed based on the out-of-sample predictive power of autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models, AR models, small-scale vector autoregressive (VAR) models, and large-scale VAR models. Since there are many potential predictors of inflation, a Bayesian variable selection technique was introduced for 12 macro variables, and a precise tuning process was performed to improve predictive power. In the case of the VAR model, the Minnesota prior distribution was applied to solve the dimensional curse problem. Looking at the results of long-term and short-term out-of-sample predictions for the last five years, the ADL model was generally superior to other competing models in both point and distribution prediction. As a result of forecasting through the combination of predictions from the above models, the inflation rate is expected to maintain the current level of around 2% until the second half of 2022, and is expected to drop to around 1% from the first half of 2023.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.147-165
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• 1992

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of elections on the Korean economy and their future ramifications. It measures the shocks to the Korean economy caused by elections by taking the average of sample forecast errors from four major elections held in the 1980s. The seven variables' Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model which includes the Monetary Base, Industrial Production, Consumption, Consumer Price, Exports, and Investment is based on the quarterly time series data starting from 1970 and is updated every quarter before forecasts are made for the next quarter. Because of this updating of coefficients, which reflects in part the rapid structural changes of the Korean economy, this study can capture the shock effect of elections, which is not possible when using election dummies with a fixed coefficient model. In past elections, especially the elections held in the 1980s, $M_2$ did not show any particular movement, but the currency and base money increased during the quarter of the election was held and the increment was partly recalled in the next quarter. The liquidity of interest rates as measured by corporate bond yields fell during the quarter the election and then rose in the following quarter, which is somewhat contrary to the general concern that interest rates will increase during election periods. Manufacturing employment fell in the quarter of the election because workers turned into campaigners. This decline in employment combined with voting holiday produce a sizeable decline in industrial production during the quarter in which elections are held, but production catches up in the next quarter and sometimes more than offsets the disruption caused during the election quarter. The major shocks to price occur in the previous quarter, reflecting the expectational effect and the relaxation of government price control before the election when we simulate the impulse responses of the VAR model, imposing the same shocks that was measured in the past elections for each election to be held in 1992 and assuming that the elections in 1992 will affect the economy in the same manner as in the 1980s elections, 1992 is expected to see a sizeable increase in monetary base due to election and prices increase pressure will be amplified substantially. On the other hand, the consumption increase due to election is expected to be relatively small and the production will not decrease. Despite increased liquidity, a large portion of liquidity in circulation being used as election funds will distort the flow of funds and aggravate the fund shortage causing investments in plant and equipment and construction activities to stagnate. These effects will be greatly amplified if elections for the head of local government are going to be held this year. If mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held after National Assembly elections, their effect on prices and investment will be approximately double what they normally will have been have only congressional and presidential elections been held. Even when mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held at the same time as congressional elections, the elections of local government heads are shown to add substantial effects to the economy for the year. The above results are based on the assumption that this year's elections will shock the economy in the same manner as in past elections. However, elections in consecutive quarters do not give the economy a chance to pause and recuperate from past elections. This year's elections may have greater effects on prices and production than shown in the model's simulations because campaigners' return to industry may be delayed. Therefore, we may not see a rapid recall of money after elections. In view of the surge in the monetary base and price escalation in the periods before and after elections, economic management in 1992 should place its first priority on controlling the monetary aggregate, in particular, stabilizing the growth of the monetary base.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.92-106
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• 2017

This paper examines the validity of issuing municipal bonds for land compensation of long-term unexecuted urban parks and greenbelts. Then it suggests that municipal bonds should be issued for compensation priority areas with high rising prices. By conducting correlation analysis and PLS(Partial Least Squares) regression for 32 long-term unexecuted urban parks and greenbelts, the factors were identified that affected 'rising prices of IAPLP(Individually Announced Public Land Price) after seven years'. According to the analysis results, Variable Importance in the Projection in PLS regression was higher in 'IAPLP of base year(1.919)' and 'Accumulated rising Rates of average IAPLP in the borough(1.176).' The implications of this study are as follows. In Seoul, the accumulated rising rates of average IAPLP over the past 12 years is higher than the accumulated interest rates for seven years of urban planning facility bonds, which means that IAPLP have risen more than the interest payments due to the issuance of municipal bonds. In addition, since the actual compensation is three times that of IAPLP, it is judged that the land price is actually much higher than the interest payments. This shows that issuing municipal bonds and preferentially compensating for areas like high rising land prices can increase the economic efficiency of the budget execution. Also, for economic efficiency of budget execution, it is necessary to propose an 'area with high IAPLP' or 'a part in the borough with high rising rate of average IAPLP,' which is expected to have a high rising land price as criteria for compensation priority areas. In the future, when issuing municipal bonds to compensate long-term unexecuted urban parks and greenbelts, variousresearch on financing for municipal bonds repayment should be conducted.

• Journal of Distribution Research
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.97-124
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• 2006

This study investigates the relationship between the relationship marketing factors, relationship quality and store loyalty in retail specialty stores. The customization of a retail specialty store was found to be having a larger effect on relationship quality than other factors such as expertise, bonding and communication and the moderating effects of customer characteristic was found be having a larger effect on relationship quality all factors except to communication. The result of this study has some practical implications. First of all, the customization strategy for individual customers is needed because customers trusted employees who provide a customized service more. Second, the employees' expertise is important to obtain the trust of customers. Third, the findings of the study showed that the communication with employees did not affect the trust. Rather, customers more often want price discounts, useful information, other benefits related to transactions. The communication is also necessary to bond a strong relationship with customers, as well as to respond customer's requests immediately Fourth, the marketing managers of the store have to effectively manage the customer relationship with the special consideration to the customer's gender, transaction experience, and variety seeking disposition.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.82 no.4
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• pp.396-405
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• 1993

In this paper, a nonlinear programming model to determine the optimal operating policy to minimize production costs for particleboard plants is presented. The model provides optimal values for three decision variables : specific gravity of particleboard, mat moisture content and mat resin content. These decision variables are key factors influencing the cost and quality of particleboard manufacturing processes. In formulating the nonlinear programming model, the minimum quality standards for internal bond strength and modulus of rupture of particleboard are used as industry-wide quality constraints. These quality standards are expressed as nonlinear functions of the decision variables. In order to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model, the model is applied to solve for optimal solutions of four theoretical problems. The problem scenarios are built to investigate effects of changes in hot-pressing speed and purchase price of chip and resin.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.51 no.2
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• pp.171-184
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• 2023

Purpose: First, this paper suggests an alternative approach to find optimal portfolio (stocks, bonds and ESG stocks) under the maximizing utility of investors. Second, we include ESG stocks in our optimal portfolio, and compare improvement of welfares in the case with and without ESG stocks in portfolio. Methods: Our main method of analysis follows Brennan et al(2002), designed under the continuous time framework. We assume that the dynamics of stock price follow the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) while the short rate have the Vasicek model. For the utility function of investors, we use the Power Utility Function, which commonly used in financial studies. The optimal portfolio and welfares are derived in the partial equilibrium. The parameters are estimated by using Kalman filter and ordinary least square method. Results: During the overall analysis period, the portfolio including ESG, did not show clear welfare improvement. In 2017, it has slightly exceeded this benchmark 1, showing the possibility of improvement, but the ESG stocks we selected have not strongly shown statistically significant welfare improvement results. This paper showed that the factors affecting optimal asset allocation and welfare improvement were different each other. We also found that the proportion of optimal asset allocation was affected by factors such as asset return, volatility, and inverse correlation between stocks and bonds, similar to traditional financial theory. Conclusion: The portfolio with ESG investment did not show significant results in welfare improvement is due to that 1) the KRX ESG Leaders 150 selected in our study is an index based on ESG integrated scores, which are designed to affect stability rather than profitability. And 2) Korea has a short history of ESG investment. During the limited analysis period, the performance of stock-related assets was inferior to bond assets at the time of the interest rate drop.

• Journal of Legislation Research
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• no.41
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• pp.261-302
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• 2011

A lien is the right to possession the thing until receiving repayment of its bonds in some cases that the property of other person or the occupant for marketable securities receive the bond that has occurred on that property or marketable securities. This has own purpose to break 'principle of creditor equality' to protect especially the bond of the subject occupant in terms of justice. These lien on our civil law come according to the law in prepared certain requirements. However, an incomplete real rights granted by way of security that does not have a preferential performance right or seniority on the exchange value of the object suffer from the problems a lot in the real estate auction process because of the feature that is not announced in the register unlike the mortgage. In addition, the lien of real estate is not lapsed in an auction process. There is no preferential performance righ in a positive law as providing that can oppose to the buyer(a successful bidder) until received repayment the secured bond price to be compliant with the lien(Civil Case Execution Law the 91st clause of Article 5). However, as asserted the super preferential performance righ to a buyer in real terms, acts as primary cause of breaking unexpected loss and according unfair law relation to a senior mortgagee and seizor, etc. and the principles of the creditors equality to the persons concerned in other words, the principles of justice. All of these issues are the establishment of the lien and theory conflict on the effects. In spite of the fluctuations of a real right about real estate is announced as a registration by the current law, only the lien come into unclear announcement means for possession. In addition, Civil Case Execution Law argument is caused by the adoption abernahmeprinzip about the lien (Civil Case Execution Law the 91st clause of Article 5). Therefore, this paper was examined briefly the significance and purpose, history and law-making examples of each country and the valid requirements and effect of the lien that is basic principle of law about the lien system above all. And then, it will be reviewed the improvement plan for de lege ferenda to improve the issues about this after reviewing the objection, theory and judicial precedent about opposing power and preferential performance right of the lien in the real estaKey Words : Lien, Oppose Power, Mortgage right, Preferential Performance right, Seizure, Real Estate Auction, Lien who can not Opposing against Successful Bidder, Lien who can Oppose against Successful Bidder, Possessionte auction that is a fundamental problem on requirement and effect of the lien.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.480-488
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• 2016

As the subprime mortgage crisis spread globally, it depressed not only the financial market, but also the construction business in Korea. In fact, according to CERIK, the BSI of the construction businesses plunged from 80 points in December 2006 to 14.6 points in November 2008, and the extent of the depression in the housing sector was particularly serious. In this respect, this paper analyzes the influence of the financial market fluctuation on the housing market before and after the Global Financial Crisis using VECM. The periods from January 2000 to December 2007 and January 2008 to October 2015, before and after the financial crisis, were set as Models 1 and 2, respectively. The results are as follows. First, when the economy is good, the Gangnam housing market is an attractive one for investment. However, when it is depressed, the Gangnam housing market changes in response to the macroeconomic fluctuations. Second, the Gangbuk and Gangnam housing markets showed different responses to fluctuations in the financial market. Third, when the economy is bad, the effect of low interest rates is limited, due to the housing market risk.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2009.06a
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• pp.205-209
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• 2009

Recently, the increase of the size of GNP and the expansion of the foreign tour opportunities by the common 5 days work system in a week, reaction of the burden for visiting foreign countries, and expansion of airlines caused the rapid increase of overseas tour but slow increase in the number of foreign tourists, due to the price rise which might impact on the competitive power, and lack of tour infrastructure and attractiveness. As the wide area along the east coast of GyeongBuk Province has great amount of cultural, ocean and natural resources, it helps to get focused the tour industries and maximize the synergy effect through the mutual development coupling the resources and regions. On the basis of the potentials for the growth of east coast area to the international level and the development of local resources, a ocean tour and resort complex for four seasons, which has s strong connection to the local areas resulting the wide tour bond, could help to improve the local economy and balance the development of local province, and furthermore, jump to the level of the center in the East Coast area in the international society. Through the investigation and analysis of the ocean space development status and usage at the advanced foreign countries, the new meaning of the ocean space at the tour and resort complex would be proposed to the relevant local government in fit.

• Journal of Service Research and Studies
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.21-36
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• 2021

This study investigated the means-end chain theory more concretely through the APT hard laddering technique. This is carrying out a questionnaire survey targeting users by hair salon type, and the items drawn from the qualitative laddering technique are applied. The technique is a comparative analysis of each attribute, consequences, and value item by analyzing each step's questions. The results are as follows. First, hairdresser's ability, acceptance of individual-customized opinions, and cheap price were the most mentioned items in the selection attributes. As for the consequences items, image transformation, neatness, novelty, and psychological stability were drawn in order. The items indicated as important among the value items were satisfaction, followed by happiness, confidence, beauty, and bond. Second, the remarkable selection attributes, irrelevant of hair salon type, was revealed as hairdresser's ability and the key values pursued when using a hair salon were drawn as satisfaction, confidence, and beauty. From this result, it was found that meeting the desire of consumers using hair salons can be linked with ultimately pursued values. It was also verified that partial differences were shown by hair salon type and this meant that consumers' desire and expected benefits were different by hair salon type. Although this study drew value perception through comparison with hair salon types based on the means-end chain theory, it was confirmed that the most important selection attribute was hairdresser's ability and they select and use hair salons to gain satisfaction and confidence.