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A Study on the Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Korean Macro Economic Activities : An EGARCH and VECM Approach (국제유가의 변동성이 한국 거시경제에 미치는 영향 분석 : EGARCH 및 VECM 모형의 응용)

  • Kim, Sang-Su
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.11 no.10
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    • pp.73-79
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - This study examines the impact of oil price volatility on economic activities in Korea. The new millennium has seen a deregulation in the crude oil market, which invited immense capital inflow into Korea. It has also raised oil price levels and volatility. Drawing on the recent theoretical literature that emphasizes the role of volatility, this paper attends to the asymmetric changes in economic growth in response to the oil price movement. This study further examines several key macroeconomic variables, such as interest rate, production, and inflation. We come to the conclusion that oil price volatility can, in some part, explain the structural changes. Research design, data, and methodology - We use two methodological frameworks in this study. First, in regards to the oil price uncertainty, we use an Exponential-GARCH (Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity: EGARCH) model estimate to elucidate the asymmetric effect of oil price shock on the conditional oil price volatility. Second, along with the estimation of the conditional volatility by the EGARCH model, we use the estimates in a VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). The study thus examines the dynamic impacts of oil price volatility on industrial production, price levels, and monetary policy responses. We also approximate the monetary policy function by the yield of monetary stabilization bond. The data collected for the study ranges from 1990: M1 to 2013: M7. In the VECM analysis section, the time span is split into two sub-periods; one from 1990 to 1999, and another from 2000 to 2013, due to the U.S. CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) deregulation on the crude oil futures that became effective in 2000. This paper intends to probe the relationship between oil price uncertainty and macroeconomic variables since the structural change in the oil market became effective. Results and Conclusions - The dynamic impulse response functions obtained from the VECM show a prolonged dampening effect of oil price volatility shock on the industrial production across all sub-periods. We also find that inflation measured by CPI rises by one standard deviation shock in response to oil price uncertainty, and lasts for the ensuing period. In addition, the impulse response functions allude that South Korea practices an expansionary monetary policy in response to oil price shocks, which stems from oil price uncertainty. Moreover, a comparison of the results of the dynamic impulse response functions from the two sub-periods suggests that the dynamic relationships have strengthened since 2000. Specifically, the results are most drastic in terms of industrial production; the impact of oil price volatility shocks has more than doubled from the year 2000 onwards. These results again indicate that the relationships between crude oil price uncertainty and Korean macroeconomic activities have been strengthened since the year2000, which resulted in a structural change in the crude oil market due to the deregulation of the crude oil futures.

An Analysis on the Influence of the Financial Market Fluctuations on the Housing Market before and after the Global Financial Crisis (글로벌 금융위기 전후 금융시장 변동이 주택시장에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Hyeon;Kim, Jae-Jun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.480-488
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    • 2016
  • As the subprime mortgage crisis spread globally, it depressed not only the financial market, but also the construction business in Korea. In fact, according to CERIK, the BSI of the construction businesses plunged from 80 points in December 2006 to 14.6 points in November 2008, and the extent of the depression in the housing sector was particularly serious. In this respect, this paper analyzes the influence of the financial market fluctuation on the housing market before and after the Global Financial Crisis using VECM. The periods from January 2000 to December 2007 and January 2008 to October 2015, before and after the financial crisis, were set as Models 1 and 2, respectively. The results are as follows. First, when the economy is good, the Gangnam housing market is an attractive one for investment. However, when it is depressed, the Gangnam housing market changes in response to the macroeconomic fluctuations. Second, the Gangbuk and Gangnam housing markets showed different responses to fluctuations in the financial market. Third, when the economy is bad, the effect of low interest rates is limited, due to the housing market risk.

Pharmacophore Modeling, Virtual Screening and Molecular Docking Studies for Identification of New Inverse Agonists of Human Histamine H1 Receptor

  • Thangapandian, Sundarapandian;Krishnamoorthy, Navaneethakrishnan;John, Shalini;Sakkiah, Sugunadevi;Lazar, Prettina;Lee, Yu-No;Lee, Keun-Woo
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.52-58
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    • 2010
  • Human histamine H1 receptor (HHR1) is a G protein-coupled receptor and a primary target for antiallergic therapy. Here, the ligand-based three-dimensional pharmacophore models were built from a set of known HHR1 inverse agonists using HypoGen module of CATALYST software. All ten generated pharmacophore models consist of five essential features: hydrogen bond acceptor, ring aromatic, positive ionizable and two hydrophobic functions. Best model had a correlation coefficient of 0.854 for training set compounds and it was validated with an external test set with a high correlation value of 0.925. Using this model Maybridge database containing 60,000 compounds was screened for potential leads. A rigorous screening for drug-like compounds unveiled RH01692 and SPB00834, two novel molecules for HHR1 with good CATALYST fit and estimated activity values. The new lead molecules were docked into the active site of constructed HHR1 homology model based on recently crystallized squid rhodopsin as template. Both the hit compounds were found to have critical interactions with Glu177, Phe432 and other important amino acids. The interpretations of this study may effectively be deployed in designing of novel HHR1 inverse agonists.

3D-QSAR Analysis on the Fungicidal Activity of N-phenyl-O-phenylthionocarbamate Analogues against Gray Mold (Botrytis cinerea) (잿빛곰팡이병균(Botrytis cinerea)에 대한 N-Phenyl-O-phenyl-thionocarbamate 유도체들의 살균활성에 관한 3D-QSAR 분석)

  • Sung, Nack-Do;Park, Kee-Han;Jang, Seok-Chan;Soung, Min-Kyu
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.59-66
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    • 2007
  • Three dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationships (3D-QSARs) on the fungicidal activity of N-phenyl-O-phenylthionocarbamate analogues against resistant and sensitive gray mold (Botrytis cinerea) (RBC & SBC) were studied quantitatively using CoMFA and CoMSIA methods. The correlation coefficient and predict- ability of optimized CoMFA model with the atom based fit alignment were better ($r^2$ & $q^2=CoMFA{\gg}CoMSIA$) than that of CoMSIA model. And statistical values of the models on the fungicidal activity against SBC were showed higher ($r^2=SBC{\gg}RBC$) than that of RBC. In CoMFA models, steric field on the activity was more influenced than electrostatic field. And in case of CoMSIA models, the influence of CoMSIA field on the activity against RBC and SBC was differ from each other but the influence of H-bond donor field was same to the two fungi. It is revealed that the selectivity factor with CoMFA model on the fungicidal activity between the two fungi was caused on the difference of steric field. Therefore, it is predicted that the large steric field with meta- and para-substituents on the N-phenyl ring will be improved to the fungicidal activity with SBC.

Forecasting Korean CPI Inflation (우리나라 소비자물가상승률 예측)

  • Kang, Kyu Ho;Kim, Jungsung;Shin, Serim
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.1-42
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    • 2021
  • The outlook for Korea's consumer price inflation rate has a profound impact not only on the Bank of Korea's operation of the inflation target system but also on the overall economy, including the bond market and private consumption and investment. This study presents the prediction results of consumer price inflation in Korea for the next three years. To this end, first, model selection is performed based on the out-of-sample predictive power of autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models, AR models, small-scale vector autoregressive (VAR) models, and large-scale VAR models. Since there are many potential predictors of inflation, a Bayesian variable selection technique was introduced for 12 macro variables, and a precise tuning process was performed to improve predictive power. In the case of the VAR model, the Minnesota prior distribution was applied to solve the dimensional curse problem. Looking at the results of long-term and short-term out-of-sample predictions for the last five years, the ADL model was generally superior to other competing models in both point and distribution prediction. As a result of forecasting through the combination of predictions from the above models, the inflation rate is expected to maintain the current level of around 2% until the second half of 2022, and is expected to drop to around 1% from the first half of 2023.

Different modes of antibiotic action of homodimeric and monomeric bactenecin, a cathelicidin-derived antibacterial peptide

  • Lee, Ju-Yeon;Yang, Sung-Tae;Kim, Hyo-Jeong;Lee, Seung-Kyu;Jung, Hyun-Ho;Shin, Song-Yub;Kim, Jae-Il
    • BMB Reports
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    • v.42 no.9
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    • pp.586-592
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    • 2009
  • The bactenecin is an antibacterial peptide with an intramolecular disulfide bond. We recently found that homodimeric bactenecin exhibits more potent antibacterial activity than the monomeric form and retains its activity at physiological conditions. Here we assess the difference in the modes of antibiotic action of homodimeric and monomeric bactenecins. Both monomeric and dimeric bactenecins almost completely killed both Staphylococcus aureus and E. coli within 10-30 min at concentrations of $8-16\;{\mu}M$. However, exposure to liposomes elicited an increase in the fluorescence quantum yield from a tryptophan-containing monomeric analog, while the homodimeric analog showed a significant reduction in fluorescence intensity. Moreover, unlike the monomer, the homodimer displayed apparent membrane-lytic activity enabling release of various sized dyes from liposomes, and rapidly and fully depolarized the S. aureus membrane. Together, our results suggest that homodimeric bactenecin forms pores in the bacterial membrane, while monomeric one penetrates through the membrane to target intracellular molecules/organelles.

Evaluation of Damage Indices for RC Bridge Piers with Premature Termination of Main Reinforcement Using Inelastic FE Analysis (비탄성 유한요소해석을 이용한 주철근 단락을 갖는 철근콘크리트 교각의 손상지수 평가)

  • 김태훈;신현목
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.39-49
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    • 2001
  • In this paper, inelastic analysis procedures are presented for the seismic performance evaluation of RC bridge piers with premature termination of main reinforcement. The mechanical characteristic of cracked concrete and reinforcing bar in concrete has been modeled, considering the bond effect between reinforcing bars and concrete, the effect of aggregate interlocking at crack surface and the stiffness degradation after the crack. The smeared crack approach is incorporated. In boundary plane at which each member with different thickness is connected, local discontinuous deformation due to the abrupt change in their stiffness can be taken into account by introducing interface element. The increase of concrete strength due to the lateral confining reinforcement has been also taken into account to model the confined concrete. The proposed numerical method for seismic performance evaluation of RC bridge piers with premature termination of main reinforcement will be verified by comparison with reliable experimental results.

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Numerical simulation of hollow steel profiles for lightweight concrete sandwich panels

  • Brunesi, E.;Nascimbene, R.;Deyanova, M.;Pagani, C.;Zambelli, S.
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.951-972
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    • 2015
  • The focus of the present study is to investigate both local and global behaviour of a precast concrete sandwich panel. The selected prototype consists of two reinforced concrete layers coupled by a system of cold-drawn steel profiles and one intermediate layer of insulating material. High-definition nonlinear finite element (FE) models, based on 3D brick and 2D interface elements, are used to assess the capacity of this technology under shear, tension and compression. Geometrical nonlinearities are accounted via large displacement-large strain formulation, whilst material nonlinearities are included, in the series of simulations, by means of Von Mises yielding criterion for steel elements and a classical total strain crack model for concrete; a bond-slip constitutive law is additionally adopted to reproduce steel profile-concrete layer interaction. First, constitutive models are calibrated on the basis of preliminary pull and pull-out tests for steel and concrete, respectively. Geometrically and materially nonlinear FE simulations are performed, in compliance with experimental tests, to validate the proposed modeling approach and characterize shear, compressive and tensile response of this system, in terms of global capacity curves and local stress/strain distributions. Based on these experimental and numerical data, the structural performance is then quantified under various loading conditions, aimed to reproduce the behaviour of this solution during production, transport, construction and service conditions.

Investigation of the Protonated State of HIV-1 Protease Active Site

  • Nam, Ky-Youb;Chang, Byung-Ha;Han, Cheol-Kyu;Ahn, Soon-Kil;No, Kyoung-Tai
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.817-823
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    • 2003
  • We have performed ab initio calculation on the active site of HIV-1 protease. The FEP method was used to determine the binding free energy of four different of protonated states of HIV-1 protease with inhibitor. The structure of the active site and hole structure was taken from the X-ray crystallographic coordinates of the C₂ symmetric inhibitor A74704 protease bound. The active site was modeled with the fragment molecules of binding pocket, acetic acid/ acetate anion (Asp25, Asp125), formamide (amide bond of Thr26/Gly27, Thr126/ Gly127), and methanol as inhibitor fragment. All possibly protonated states of the active site were considered, which were diprotonated state (0, 0), monoprotonated (-1, 0),(0, -1) and diunprotonated state (-1, -1). Once the binding energy Debind, of each model was calculated, more probabilistic protonated states can be proposed from binding energy. From ab-initio results, the FEP simulations were performed for the three following mutations: Ⅰ) Asp25 … Asp125 → AspH25 … Asp125, ⅱ) Asp25 … Asp125 → Asp25 … AspH125, ⅲ) AspH25 … Asp125 → AspH25 … AspH125. The free energy difference between the four states gives the information of the more realistic protonated state of active site aspartic acid. These results provide a theoretical prediction of the protonation state of the catalytic aspartic residues for A74707 complex, and may be useful for the evaluation of potential therapeutic targets.

Characteristics of Dairy Cow's Vocalization in Postpartum Related with Calf Isolation (출산 후 새끼와의 분리에 따른 유우의 발성음 특성)

  • Kim, Min-Jin;Son, Seung-Hun;Rhim, Shin-Jae;Chang, Moon-Baek
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.51-56
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    • 2010
  • This study was conducted to clarify the characteristics of Holstein dairy cow's vocalization in postpartum related with calf isolation. Vocalizations of 16 individuals of cows were recorded 6 hours per day (1:00am~4:00am and 1:00pm~4:00pm) using digital recorder and microphone during October 2008 and May 2009. Vocalizations were divided into 4 types. Characteristics of frequency, intensity and duration were analyzed by GLM (general linear model) and Duncan's multi-test. There were significant differences in frequency and intensity based on analyses of spectrogram and spectrum among 4 types of vocalizations. Frequencies of vocalizations were dramatically decreased on 2nd and 3rd day. Vocalization would be important factor affecting the motheryoung bond in Holstein dairy cattle.