• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.65-73
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• 2014

Purpose - Aging and fewer economically active people have challenged the assumption of continuous population increases. A new real estate valuation methodology reflecting changes in population structure is thus needed. Research design, data, and methodology - The relationship between demographic change and changes in real estate prices is analyzed using ordinary least squares (OLS) to estimate the parameters, and a population structure change (PSC)-Binomial Option Model is developed to assess the volatility of the estimated parameters. Results based on Seoul and Shanghai data are compared. Results - Results of the DCF method indicate that investing in Seoul is better than investing in Shanghai, but the binomial option indicates the opposite. The PSC-binomial option model, reflecting changes in population structure, yields higher values (24.6 million won in Seoul and 43.3 million won in Shanghai) than those given by the binomial option model. Conclusions - This study indicates that applying changes in population structure to existing research, such as in the binomial option model, represents a more accurate real estate valuation method. Results demonstrate that the new model is more accurate than existing models such as the DCF or binomial option.

• Journal of Hydrogen and New Energy
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.319-335
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• 2014

This study attempts to suggest an economic analysis model for SNG projects, which can reflect the future uncertainty objectively and applies the real option valuation incorporating the flexible investment decision. Based on this analysis model, net present value and internal rate of return were estimated by using preliminary feasibility study report of SNG project. And economic evaluation of SNG project was performed with real option valuation using binomial option model. Through this, the difference of analysis results between the real option valuation model and the discounted cash flow model were compared and the usefulness of the real option valuation model was confirmed. From the actual proof analysis, it is confirmed that the real option valuation model showed higher SNG project value than the discounted cash flow model did. It was confirmed that by applying the real option valuation model, economic analysis can be performed on not only the current straightforward SNG project, but also various future portfolios having options such as expansion, modification, or decommission.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.10 no.2 s.39
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• pp.137-145
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• 2007

In traditional financial theory, the discount cash flow model(DCF or NPV) operates as the basic framework for most analyses. In doing valuation analysis, the conventional view is that the net present value(NPV) of a project is the measure of the present value of expected net cash flows. Thus, investing in a positive(negative) NPV project will increase(decrease) firm value. Recently, this framework has come under some fire for failing to consider the options of the managerial flexibilities. Real option valuation(ROV) considers the managerial flexibility to make ongoing decisions regarding the implementation of investment projects and the deployment of real assets. The appeal of the framework is natural given the high degree of uncertainty that firms face in their technology investment decisions. This paper suggests an algorithm for estimating volatility of logarithmic cash flow returns of real assets based on the Black-Sholes option pricing model, the binomial option pricing model, and the Monte Carlo simulation. This paper uses those models to obtain point estimates of real option value with the G7- HSR350X(high-speed train).

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.533-554
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• 2004

Real option valuation considers the managerial flexibility to make ongoing decisions regarding implementation of investment projects and deployment of real assets. The appeal of the framework is natural given the high degree of uncertainty that firms face in their technology investment decisions. This paper suggests an algorithm for estimating volatility of logarithmic cash flow returns of real asset based on Monte Carlo simulation. This research uses a binomial model to obtain point estimate of real option value with embedded expansion option case and provides also an array of numerical results to show the interval estimation of option value using Monte Carlo simulation.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.17-26
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• 2014

This study presents a new real estate value analysis model considering the changes in the population structure. We propose a new model that takes advantage of the binomial option model one of the techniques of real options and considers the changes in the population structure. The real estate market price data of Seoul city from year 2001 to 2012 were extracted and the correlation analysis between real estate prices and changes in the population structure was performed. The result shows that they have positive correlation with one year time lag. The coefficient between the real estate prices and demographic changes was estimated using the OLS analysis and included in the traditional binomial option model to calculate the value of the property. It is assumed for the future price prediction that real estate invested in Seoul in January, 2013 will be sold within five years. Analysis result shows that the values of real estate in September of 2013 were predicted as 583.5 million won in the new model and as 582.4 million won in the traditional model. This reflects that the new model considering the change of population change gives better realistic performance than the traditional one.

• Korean Business Review
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.27-44
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• 2009

This paper compares the accounting standards for stock option of Japan and Korea. Especially, tire setting process of accounting standards for stock option, accounting methods and disclosures for stock option in two countries are analyzed. The results provide that two countries shaw different characteristics in accounting standards for stock option. First, in Japan, acquired services are reported as compensation costs and capital adjustments. On the other hand, in Korea, in case of cash-settled share- based payment transactions, acquired services are reported as compensation costs and capital adjustments, but in case of equity-settled share- based payment transactions, acquired services are reported as compensation costs and debt. Second, when tire stock option rights are abandoned, they are reported as extraordinary items in Japan and are reported as other surplus in Korea. Third, though both countries do not choose specific stock option pricing model, Japan prefers Black-Sholes Model and Korea regards binomial model as proper model.

• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.190-198
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• 2013

Recently, one of the most vital advancement in the field of finance is high-performance trading using field-programmable gate array (FPGA). The objective of this paper is to design high-performance Black Scholes option trading system on an FPGA. We implemented an efficient Black Scholes Call Option System IP on an FPGA. The IP may perform 180 million transactions per second after initial latency of 208 clock cycles. The implementation requires the 64-bit IEEE double-precision floatingpoint adder, multiplier, exponent, logarithm, division, and square root IPs. Our experimental results show that the design is highly efficient in terms of frequency and resource utilization, with the maximum frequency of 179 MHz on Altera Stratix V.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2007.03a
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• pp.563-572
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• 2007

Transportation infrastructure is critical to economic growth of a country such as China. Careful evaluation of investments in traffic infrastructure projects is therefore pertinent. As traditional evaluation methods do not consider the uncertainty of future cash flows and mobility during project execution, the real option approach is gradually gaining recognition in the context of valuing construction and infrastructure projects. However, many of the cases only evaluate individual options separately although multiple options often exist in a typical large infrastructure project. Using a highway project in China as a case study, this paper first evaluates a deferment option and a growth option embedded in the project. Subsequently, the values are combined using the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. It is found that the combined value is less than the sum of the two option values. This finding is consistent with the theoretical observations given in past real option literature despite the use of a different approach.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.111-121
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• 2014

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) allows New & Renewable Energy projects to make additional income by selling CER's, which represent the amount of Green House Gases(GHG) that is reduced in the project. However, forward contracts used to hedge fluctuating market prices does not allow projects to sell CER's at a premium. As an alternate approach to maximize CER revenue, CER's are modeled as a 'real option', in which CER's are sold only above the desired sales price. Using the Binomial Option Pricing model, the resultant lattices are used to determine whether to sell, defer or abandon the option at individual nodes. Overlaying Pascal's Triangle on the lattices also enabled the calculation of the annual probabilities for deferring CER sales without incurring downside losses. Application to an actual Landfill Gas project showed increased overall NPV, and that CER sales could be deferred at a maximum of 2 years. The proposed framework allows transparency in the analysis and provides valuable and strategical information when making investment decisions related to CER sales of CDM projects.

• Clean Technology
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.59-70
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• 2023

This study aims to introduce a biowaste processing system that uses spent coffee grounds and implement a real options method to evaluate the proposed process. Energy systems based on eco-friendly fuels lack sufficient data, and thus along with conventional approaches, they lack the techno-economic assessment required for great input qualities. On the other hand, real options analysis can estimate the different costs of options, such as continuing or abandoning a project, by considering uncertainties, which can lead to better decision-making. This study investigated the feasibility of a biowaste processing method using spent coffee grounds to produce biofuel and considered three different valuation models, which were the net present value using discounted cash flow, the Black-Scholes and binomial models. The suggested biowaste processing system consumes 200 kg/h of spent coffee grounds. The system utilizes a tilted-slide pyrolysis reactor integrated with a heat exchanger to warm the air, a combustor to generate a primary heat source, and a series of condensers to harness the biofuel. The result of the net present value is South Korean Won (KRW) -225 million, the result of the binomial model is KRW 172 million, and the result of the Black-Scholes model is KRW 1,301 million. These results reveal that a spent coffee ground-related biowaste processing system is worthy of investment from a real options valuation perspective.