• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.1-10
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• 2021

This study examines the dynamic pattern of the exchange rate volatilities of the ASEAN-5 currencies from January 2006 to August 2020. The exchange rates applied in this study comprise bilateral and effective exchange rates in order to investigate the influence of the US dollar on the stability of the ASEAN-5 currencies. Since a volatility model employed in this study is a natural cubic spline volatility model, the Monte Carlo simulation is consequently conducted to determine an appropriate criterion to select a number of quantile knots for this model. The simulation results reveal that, among four candidate criteria, Generalized Cross-Validation is a suitable criterion for modeling the ASEAN-5 exchange rate volatilities. The estimated volatilities showed the inconstant dynamic patterns reflecting the uncertain exchange rate risk arising in international transactions. The bilateral exchange rate volatilities of the ASEAN-5 currencies to the US dollar are more variable than their corresponding effective exchange rate volatilities, indicating the influence of the US dollar on the stability of the ASEAN-5 currencies. The findings of this study suggest that the natural cubic spline volatility model with the quantile knots selected by Generalized Cross-Validation is practical and can be used to examine the dynamic patterns of the financial volatility.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.48 no.4
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• pp.47-66
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• 2023

Our study aims to explore the impact of China's foreign trade policy measures on the real exchange rate movement. We seek to provide specific references for the formulation of exchange rate and trade-related strategies. Our results indicate that China's bilateral trade is significantly influenced by movements in the Real Effective Exchange Rate (RER). When analyzing the relationship between aggregated trade flow and exchange rate movements, this paper finds that the depreciation of the real exchange rate leads to an increase in China's export volume and a slight decrease in its import volume. Moreover, China's export volume exhibits higher sensitivity to exchange rate volatility compared to the exchange rate level. Furthermore, the empirical findings regarding disaggregated trade flow suggest that different goods are affected differently by exchange rate movements. Capital goods and consumer goods, being in different stages of processing, show no negative impact on their import and export due to exchange rate depreciation. Consequently, we recommend deepening the industry's reform by improving production efficiency and transitioning the industrial structure to a higher processing stage. This approach can effectively reduce the negative impact of exchange rate depreciation.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.44 no.1
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• pp.17-30
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• 2019

This study is to investigate the effect of real exchange rate on bilateral trade balance between Korea and ASEAN 10 countries. Using quarterly data from 1991 to 2017 the paper analyzes whether or not the real depreciation of Korea's won could improve the trade balance in the short and long term. Based on Autoregressive Distributed Lag(ARDL) model, the empirical results show that trade balance, GDP, and real exchange rate are all cointegrated, representing the long-run relationship among variables. In the consideration of long-run relationship, the increases in ASEAN countries' GDP could have a negative impact and Korea's GDP positive impact on trade balance between Korea and ASEAN countries unexpectedly. For the main variable, the paper did not find the long-term effect of real exchange rate on the trade balance, for the short-term effect of the real exchange rate it was found that there exists the J-curve effect only in the case of Vietnam and Brunei. Therefore, these results imply that the intended policy concerning the exchange rate in the free-floating exchange rate system could be limited to improve the trade balance between Korea and ASEAN countries.

• East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE)
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.27-38
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• 2019

Purpose - Recently, the trade war between China and US has been escalating, which has also attracted worldwide attention. Based on this background, this paper sets China and US as an example to explore the determinants of bilateral trade between China and US. Research design, date, and methodology - A quarterly data from the 2000-Q1 to the 2017-Q4 will be used to perform an empirical analysis under some econometric approaches such as the fully modified least squares and the vector error correction estimates. Result - The results illustrate that the two economic entities of China and US have the greatest positive effect on bilateral trade between China and US. The real exchange rate has a positive effect on bilateral trade between China and US. The nominal exchange rate has a negative effect on bilateral trade between China and US in the short run. US's average price has a positive effect on bilateral trade between China and US in the short run. China's average price has a negative effect on bilateral trade between China and US in the short run. Meanwhile, the bilateral trade between China and US also suffers from the economic crisis happened in 2008. Even through the bilateral trade between China and US in the short run is deviate from the long-run equilibrium, there exist an error correction mechanism back to the long-run equilibrium. Conclusion - This paper provides some empirical evidences for both governments. Based on the results of this paper, both governments should take corresponding measures to promote the development of bilateral trade between China and US.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.313-334
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• 2000

In this paper, we obtained some supportive evidence for the long-run PPP relationship concerning the Korean Won currency. Previous tests of PPP in the bilateral exchange rates of the Korean Won rate vis-a-vis the U.S. Dollar have been exposed to the lack of power problem. We argue that their failure to find PPP relation in Korean Won rates was due to the low power of Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests or the Engle-Granger two-step tests applied to the Korean exchange rate data with short sample period. En attempting to alleviate this low power problem, we used the error-correction model test and the Johansen test for bilateral long-run equilibrium relationships between exchange rates and price indices from Korea's major trading partners. It is surprising that our evidence supporting for long-run PPP in Korean Won rate contrasts sharply with Bahmani-Oskooee, Moshen and Rhee, Hyun-Jae(1992)'s.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.11
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• pp.47-66
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• 2021

Despite the dominance of the USD as a vehicle currency in non-US trade, most studies on the exchange rate-trade balance relationship ignore its importance. Some recent J-curve papers have proved that incorporating the role of USD as vehicle currency as a crucial determinant of trade balance can well reflect the reality of global trade and provide more detailed findings. Motivated by this new approach and by the fact that USD is substantially used in the trade between China and the EU and the UK, this paper scrutinizes how the vehicle currency USD and the bilateral exchange rates asymmetrically affect China's trade balance with each EU country and the UK. The results of NARDL estimation indicate that the USD models outperform the bilateral exchange rate (BER) models in terms of detecting significant long-run and short-run coefficients, which confirms the usefulness of the new approach. Also, this paper finds that the USD/CNY exchange rate cannot be neglected in China's trade with the EU and the UK, which can supplement China's policies on international trade and foreign exchange management.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.335-356
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• 2000

This paper examines the time series dynamics of spot and forward exchange rates and Eurocurrency deposit rates for four bilateral relationships vis a vis the U.S. dollar using daily data. The equilibrium implied by covered interest parity provides a theoretical foundation from which to estimate and analyze the dynamic properties of each system of exchange rates and interest rates. The structural statistical model is identified by relying on the implied cointegration vectors and long-run neutrality restrictions.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.31-59
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• 2020

China's increasing trade volume and continuous integration with global financial markets have strengthened the influences of the renminbi on the exchange rates of different currencies. Previous studies find closer co-movements between the renminbi and other currencies. This paper is novel to investigate the underlying determinants of the co-movement further, using panel data of over thirty-four countries. Our results show that stronger bilateral trade and financial linkages with China have a positive association with the currency co-movement. Moreover, countries with greater flexibility in exchange rate regimes show stronger co-movements. These findings imply that growing co-movements are the consequence of autonomous decisions at the market rather than that of management by governments or central banks.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.61-69
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• 2021

The aim of this paper is to empirically investigate whether and how domestic currency valuation is related to firm-level export competitiveness and profitability by using the unique firm-specific dataset on Bangladeshi nonfinancial firms which have been listed continuously from 2010 to 2018. To achieve the aim of this paper, 63 exporting firms are extracted from a total of 125 firms which have been continuously listed during 2010-2018 and used as the final sample firms. The Pedroni cointegration test reveals that export and import prices of the exporting firms are cointegrated in the short-run as well as long-run. The panel dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) analysis finds that a firm's export competitiveness is maintained by high import inputs even in the presence of depreciation of Bangladeshi currency against the US dollar. Finally, the DuPont analysis finds that the depreciated Bangladeshi currency enhances an exporter's profitability. Conclusions based on the findings are consistent regardless of exchange rate types, such as, real bilateral exchange rate and nominal or real effective exchange rate indexes. Consequently, the firm-level findings of this investigation suggest that undervalution of home currency is essential for Bangaldesh which is one of the frontier markets in South Asia whose exporting firms are mostly price followers in global markets.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.41-76
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• 2017

This paper analyses the market shares and the export similarity indexes (ESI) of Korea, Japan and China in ASEAN, and then identifies the determinants of Korea's exports to ASEAN countries using single equation cointegration approaches, such as fully modified OLS (FMOLS), dynamic OLS (DOLS), and canonical cointegration regression (CCR). Various regression results are as follows: As expected, Korea's real exports tend to increase as importing country's GDP grows. The competing third country's currency depreciation affects Korea's exports differently from country to country. Most notably, it doesn't significantly affect Korean exports in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. These results suggest that bilateral or third country exchange rates are not that important or decisive factors to determine Korea's exports to ASEAN countries in the long-run while economic growth in ASEAN countries matters most.