• Title/Summary/Keyword: Bias estimation

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Estimation of Korea Transportation Service Index and Business Cycle Analysis (국내 교통산업 서비스 지수의 산정 및 경기순환분석)

  • Han, Sang-Yong;Jeong, Gyeong-Ok;Jeong, Gyeong-Min
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.2 s.88
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    • pp.53-63
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    • 2006
  • The objective of this study is to estimate Korean transportation service index (KTSI), and to explore possible uses of the KTSI. The KTSI was monthly index to represent the level of passenger and freight services by road, railroad, air and maritime modes, which was developed from eight series. Four of these series measure the level of passenger services (passenger-kilometers) by road, railroad. air and maritime modes : monthly data from January 1995 to December 2004. Similarly. the remaining four series measure the level or freight activity (tonnage) by four modes during the same period. Given the weights of modal revenues, component series were aggregated into two indexes (passenger index and freight index) and a composite index using Chained Fisher Ideal index. which was a geometric mean of the Laspeyres index and the Passche index. The Fisher Ideal index is one of the 'superlative' indexes, which diminish 'substitution bias' as current-weighted indexes. As a result, the freight index and the composite index explain economic conditions better than the passenger index. Based on the composite index. the newly estimated KTSI shows an average lag time of one and a half years at peaks and three months at troughs in comparison with domestic business cycles. Nonetheless. the following efforts are needed for more credible and useful estimates; establishment of data collection scheme in time. credibility uplift of used data, development of various indexation methods.

Future PMPs projection according to precipitation variation under RCP 8.5 climate change scenario (RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오의 강수량 변화에 따른 미래 PMPs의 전망)

  • Lee, Okjeong;Park, Myungwoo;Lee, Jeonghoon;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.107-119
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    • 2016
  • Since future climate scenarios indicate that extreme precipitation events will intensity, probable maximum precipitations (PMPs) without being taken climate change into account are very likely to be underestimated. In this study future PMPs in accordance with the variation of future rainfall are estimated. The hydro-meteorologic method is used to calculate PMPs. The orographic transposition factor is applied in place of the conventional terrain impact factor which has been used in previous PMPs estimation reports. Future DADs are indirectly obtained by using bias-correction and moving-averaged changing factor method based on daily precipitation projection under KMA RCM (HEDGEM3-RA) RCP 8.5 climate change scenario. As a result, future PMPs were found to increase and the spatially-averaged annual PMPs increase rate in 4-hour and $25km^2$ was projected to be 3 mm by 2045. In addition, the increased rate of future PMPs is growing increasingly in the future, but it is thought that the uncertainty of estimating PMPs caused by future precipitation projections is also increased in the distant future.

The Study on the Mapping of Wind Resource using Moving Filter Technique at Udo, Jeju Island (무빙필터 기법을 적용한 제주 우도지역의 풍력자원지도 작성에 대한 연구)

  • Moon, Seo Jeong;Ko, Jung Woo;Lee, Byung Gul
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.29-36
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    • 2012
  • In order to create a wind resource map, we need wind data, contour map and roughness map. Moving Filter technique was applied to Udo of Jeju Island to improve the accuracy and efficiency of creating roughness map based on the Land Cover Map of the Ministry of Environment. The Land Cover Map was simplified using moving filtering, and the roughness map was created with this Land Cover Map. The wind resource map was created using this roughness map. Finally, we verified the validity and application of moving filter technique for wind resource map. As a result, the wind map which was created using the roughness map with moving filtering showed bias values which were all negative. It means the wind map is underestimated to values of wind energy and RMSE values were also from 0.0237m/s to 0.0253m/s at 50m height. In other words, estimation of wind resource using image filtering provides reliable results at 80m height typically when the wind turbine is installed. Finally, we found that image filtering technique is very useful tool to make wind resource map.

Influence of Radome Types on GNSS Antenna Phase Center Variation (GNSS 안테나 위상중심변동에 레이돔이 미치는 영향)

  • Yun, Seonghyeon;Lee, Hungkyu
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.11-21
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    • 2020
  • This paper deals with the impact of a GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) antenna radome on the PCV (Phase Center Variations) and the estimated kinematic coordinates. For the Trimble and Leica antennas, specially set up CORS (Continuously Operation Reference Stations) in Korea, the PCC (Phase Center Corrections) were calculated and compared for NONE, SCIS, SCIT, and TZGD radome from the PCV model published by the IGS (International GNSS Services). The results revealed that the PCC differences compared to the NONE were limited to about 1mm in the horizontal component while those of the vertical direction ranged from a few millimeters to a maximum of 7mm. Among the radomes of which PCV were compared, the SCIT had the most significant influence on the vertical component, and its GPS (Global Positioning System) L2 and L2 PCC (Phase Center Corrections) had opposite direction. As a result of comparing the kinematic coordinates estimated by the baseline processing of 7 CORSs with an application of the PCV models of the various radomes, the SCIS which was actually installed at CORS in Korea showed 3.4mm bias, the most substantial impact on the ellipsoidal height estimation whereas the SCIT model resulted in relatively small biases.

A study on the Accuracy Analysis of the World Geodetic System Transformation for GIS Base Map and Database (GIS 기본도 및 DB의 세계측지계 좌표변환 정확도 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Jae-Kwan;Choi, Yun-Soo;Kwon, Jay-Hyoun;Lee, Bo-Mi
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.79-85
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    • 2008
  • This study aims to derive a practical coordinate transformation method for the existing geographic information database. After analyzing the status and problems of existing 1/1,000 digital base map and GIS application database, the transformation parameters are estimated and the accuracy of the transformation is determined based on the transformed coordinates. We analyzed the accuracy of a transformation using the published national transformation coefficients as well as the estimated local transformation coefficients using national and urban control points in a study area. In addition, the 1/1,000 digital base map from aerial triangulation is compared with respect to the coordinates of urban control points. Based on the comparison, the biases on the national control points which were used at the time of digital map generation was analyzed. Then, the accuracy of transformed coordinates based on the world geodetic system using local transformation coefficients estimated from urban control points are determined. We also analyzed the transformation accuracy of underground infrastructure database using the same transformation method as the case of 1/1,000 digital base map. Through this study, it was found that the estimation of transformation coefficients by Molodensky-Badekas using urban control points was suitable for a local government. Furthermore, it was obvious that the accuracy of a 2-dimensional affine transformation was comparable to that of 7 parameter transformation for a local area. Applying the coordinate transformation and bias correction, we could transform GIS application database which was built by an offset surveying based on digital base map within the transformation accuracy of 10 cm. Therefore, it was judged that there will not be a big problem on the transformation of the GIS DB to the world geodetic system.

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Formant-broadened CMS Using the Log-spectrum Transformed from the Cepstrum (켑스트럼으로부터 변환된 로그 스펙트럼을 이용한 포먼트 평활화 켑스트럴 평균 차감법)

  • 김유진;정혜경;정재호
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.361-373
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    • 2002
  • In this paper, we propose a channel normalization method to improve the performance of CMS (cepstral mean subtraction) which is widely adopted to normalize a channel variation for speech and speaker recognition. CMS which estimates the channel effects by averaging long-term cepstrum has a weak point that the estimated channel is biased by the formants of voiced speech which include a useful speech information. The proposed Formant-broadened Cepstral Mean Subtraction (FBCMS) is based on the facts that the formants can be found easily in log spectrum which is transformed from the cepstrum by fourier transform and the formants correspond to the dominant poles of all-pole model which is usually modeled vocal tract. The FBCMS evaluates only poles to be broadened from the log spectrum without polynomial factorization and makes a formant-broadened cepstrum by broadening the bandwidths of formant poles. We can estimate the channel cepstrum effectively by averaging formant-broadened cepstral coefficients. We performed the experiments to compare FBCMS with CMS, PFCMS using 4 simulated telephone channels. In the experiment of channel estimation, we evaluated the distance cepstrum of real channel from the cepstrum of estimated channel and found that we were able to get the mean cepstrum closer to the channel cepstrum due to an softening the bias of mean cepstrum to speech. In the experiment of text-independent speaker identification, we showed the result that the proposed method was superior than the conventional CMS and comparable to the pole-filtered CMS. Consequently, we showed the proposed method was efficiently able to normalize the channel variation based on the conventional CMS.

Improving Initial Abstraction Method of NRCS-CN for Estimating Effective Rainfall (유효우량 산정을 위한 NRCS-CN 모형의 초기손실량 산정방법 개선)

  • Park, Dong-Hyeok;Ajmal, Muhammad;Ahn, Jae-Hyun;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.6
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    • pp.491-500
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    • 2015
  • In order to improve the runoff estimation accuracy of the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) curve number (CN) model, this study incorporated rainfall and maximum potential retention as contributors for initial abstraction. The modification was proposed based on 658 rank-order data of rainfall and subsequent runoff from 15 watersheds. The NRCS-CN model (M1), one of its inspired modified model (M2), and the proposed model (M3) were analyzed employing different CN approaches. Using tabulated, calculated and least squares fitted CNs ($CN_T$, $CN_C$, $CN_{LSF}$, respectively), the models' performances were evaluated based on Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Percent Bias (PBIAS). Applications of model M1, M2, and M3, respectively exhibited watershed cumulative mean [RMSE (23.60, 18.12, 16.04), NSE (0.54, 0.73, 0.79), and PBIAS (36.54, 20.25, 12.00)]. Similarly, using CNC (for M1 and M2 model) and $CN_{LSF}$ (for M3 model), the performance of three models respectively were assessed based on watershed cumulative mean [RMSE (17.17, 15.88, 13.82), NSE (0.76, 0.80, 0.85), and PBIAS (3.06, 4.47, 0.11)]. The proposed model (M3) that linked all of the NRCS-CN variants showed more statistically significant agreement between the observed and estimated data.

Characteristics of Speckle Errors of SeaWiFS Chlorophyll-α Concentration in the East Sea (동해 SeaWiFS 클로로필-α 농도의 스펙클 오차 특성)

  • Chae, Hwa-Jeong;Park, Kyung-Ae
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.234-246
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    • 2009
  • Characteristics of speckle errors of Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) chlorophyll-${\alpha}$ concentration were analyzed, and its causes were investigated by using SeaWiFS data in the East Sea from September 1997 to December 2007. The speckles with anomalously high concentrations were randomly distributed and showed remarkably high bias of greater than $10mg/m^3$, compared with their neighboring pixels. The speckles tended to appear frequently in winter, which might be related to cloud distribution. Ten-year averaged cloudiness of winter was much higher over the southeastern part, with frequent speckles, than the northwestern part of the East Sea. Statistical analysis results showed that the number of the speckles was increased as cloudiness increased. Normalized water-leaving radiance of the speckle pixel was considerably low at the short wavelengths (443, 490, and 510 nm), whereas the radiance at 555 nm band was normal. These low measurements produced extraordinarily high concentration from the chlorophyll-${\alpha}$ estimation formula. This study presented the speckle errors of SeaWiFS chlorophyll-${\alpha}$ concentration in the East Sea and suggested that more reliable chlorophyll-${\alpha}$ data based on appropriate ocean color remote sensing techniques should be used for the oceanic application researches.

Analysis on Correlation between AE Parameters and Stress Intensity Factor using Principal Component Regression and Artificial Neural Network (주성분 회귀분석 및 인공신경망을 이용한 AE변수와 응력확대계수와의 상관관계 해석)

  • Kim, Ki-Bok;Yoon, Dong-Jin;Jeong, Jung-Chae;Park, Phi-Iip;Lee, Seung-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.80-90
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    • 2001
  • The aim of this study is to develop the methodology which enables to identify the mechanical properties of element such as stress intensity factor by using the AE parameters. Considering the multivariate and nonlinear properties of AE parameters such as ringdown count, rise time, energy, event duration and peak amplitude from fatigue cracks of machine element the principal component regression(PCR) and artificial neural network(ANN) models for the estimation of stress intensity factor were developed and validated. The AE parameters were found to be very significant to estimate the stress intensity factor. Since the statistical values including correlation coefficients, standard mr of calibration, standard error of prediction and bias were stable, the PCR and ANN models for stress intensity factor were very robust. The performance of ANN model for unknown data of stress intensity factor was better than that of PCR model.

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Estimation of reflectivity-rainfall relationship parameters and uncertainty assessment for high resolution rainfall information (고해상도 강수정보 생산을 위한 레이더 반사도-강수량 관계식 매개변수 보정 및 불확실성 평가)

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong;Kim, Jang-Gyeong;Kim, Jin-Guk;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.5
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    • pp.321-334
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    • 2021
  • A fixed reflectivity-rainfall relationship approach, such as the Marshall-Palmer relationship, for an entire year and different seasons, can be problematic in cases where the relationship varies spatially and temporally throughout a region. From this perspective, this study explores the use of long-term radar reflectivity for South Korea to obtain a nationwide calibrated Z-R relationship and the associated uncertainties within a Bayesian inference framework. A calibrated spatially structured pattern in the parameters exists, particularly for the wet season and parameter for the dry season. A pronounced region of high values during the wet and dry seasons may be partially associated with storm movements in that season. Overall, the radar rainfall fields based on the proposed modeling procedure are similar to the observed rainfall fields. In contrast, the radar rainfall fields obtained from the existing Marshall-Palmer relationship show a systematic underestimation. In the event of high impact weather, it is expected that the value of national radar resources can be improved by establishing an active watershed-level hydrological analysis system.