• 한국병원경영학회지
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.19-41
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• 2006

The Objective of this study was to design the model which predict the future cash flow of hospitals and on the basis of designed model to support sound hospital management by the prediction of future cash flow. The five cash flow measurement variables discussed in financial accrual part were used as variables and these variables were defined as NI, NIDPR, CFO, CFAI, CC. To measure the cash flow B/S related variables, P/L related variables and financial ratio related variables were utilized in this study. To measure cash flow models were designed and to estimate the prediction ability of five cash flow models, the martingale model and the market model were utilized. To estimate relative prediction outcome of cash flow prediction model and simple market model, MAE and MER were used to compare and analyze relative prediction ability of the cash flow model and the market model and to prove superiority of the model of the cash flow prediction model, 32 Regional Public Hospital's cross-section data and 4 year time series data were combined and pooled cross-sectional time series regression model was used for GLS-analysis. To analyze this data, Firstly, each cash flow prediction model, martingale model and market model were made and MAE and MER were estimated. Secondly difference-test was conducted to find the difference between MAE and MER of cash flow prediction model. Thirdly after ranking by size the prediction of cash flow model, martingale model and market model, Friedman-test was evaluated to find prediction ability. The results of this study were as follows: when t-test was conducted to find prediction ability among each model, the error of prediction of cash flow model was smaller than that of martingale and market model, and the difference of prediction error cash flow was significant, so cash flow model was analyzed as excellent compare with other models. This research results can be considered conductive in that present the suitable prediction model of future cash flow to the hospital. This research can provide valuable information in policy-making of hospital's policy decision. This research provide effects as follows; (1) the research is useful to estimate the benefit of hospital, solvency and capital supply ability for substitution of fixed equipment. (2) the research is useful to estimate hospital's liqudity, solvency and financial ability. (3) the research is useful to estimate evaluation ability in hospital management. Furthermore, the research should be continued by sampling all hospitals and constructed advanced cash flow model in dimension, established type and continued by studying unified model which is related each cash flow model.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제40권5호
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• pp.455-463
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• 2020

사용연수가 30년 이상 된 노후 시설물은 향후 10년 사이 3배 이상 급증될 것으로 조사되고 있다. 또한, 2017년 행정안전부 "내진설계기준 공통적용"개정으로 도로시설물의 내진성능 확보유무가 검토되어야 하며, 이는 기존 설계기준을 통해 내진보강 되었거나, 내진설계가 된 시설물을 포함한 모든 기존 도로시설물을 대상으로 내진성능 확보유무가 재평가 되어야 함을 의미한다. 이렇듯 대량의 시설물에 대한 내진성능관리를 위해서는 빠른 시간 내에 경제적이고 신뢰성 있는 결과를 제공할 수 있는 의사결정 지원기술이 필요하다. 하지만, 우리나라에서 사용되고 있는 지수평가방법은 결정론적인 방법으로서, 개별시설물의 내진성능을 정성적인 지수 값으로 산정하고 지수 값의 크기에 따라 내진보강 우선순위만을 결정하고 있어 합리적인 내진성능관리를 위한 다양한 의사결정을 지원하기 어려운 실정이다. 이러한 단점을 극복하고 내진성능관리 의사결정에 필요한 시설물의 직접손실비용, 사회·경제적 간접손실비용, 재원투입효과 등의 정보를 제공할 수 있는 지진위험도평가 방법으로 전환이 필요하다.

• 대한교통학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한교통학회 1996년도 제29회 학술발표회
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• pp.59-86
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• 1996

Current methods for evaluating unsignalized intersections, and estimating level-of-service (LOS) is determined from efficiency-based criteria such as little or no delay to very long delays. At present, similar procedures to evaluate intersections using safety-based criteria do not exist. The improvement of sight distances at intersections is the most effective way of improving intersection safety. However, a set of procedures is necessary to account for the limitations in current methodology. Such an approach would build upon such methods, but also account for: deficiencies in the current deterministic solution for the determination of intersection sight distances; opportunity for an accident and severity of an accident; and cost-effectiveness of attaining various levels of sight distances. In this research, a model that estimates the degree of safety at two-way stop-controlled intersections is described. Only crossing maneuvers are considered in this study because accidents caused by the crossing maneuvers are the dominate type among intersection accidents. Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the hazard at an intersection as a function of roadway features and traffic conditions. Driver`s minimum gap acceptance in the crossing vehicles and headway distribution on the major road are used in the crossing vehicles and headway distribution on the major road are used in the model to simulate the real intersectional maneuvers. Other random variables addressed in the model are: traffic speeds; preception-reaction times of both drivers in the crossing vehicles and drivers in oncoming vehicles on the major road; and vehicles on the major roads. The developed model produces the total number of conflicts per year per vehicle and total potential kinetic energy per year per vehicle dissipated during conflicts as measurements of safety at intersections. Based on the results from the developed simulation model, desirable sight distances for various speeds were determined as 350 feet, 450 feet and 550 feet for 40 mph, 50 mph and 60 mph prevailing speed on the major road, respectively. These values are seven to eight percent less than those values recommended by AASHTO. A safety based level-of-service (LOS) is also developed using the results of the simulation model. When the total number of conflicts per vehicle is less than 0.05 at an intersection, the LOS of the intersection is `A' and when the total number of conflicts per vehicle is larger than 0.25 at an intersection, the LOS is `F'. Similarly, when the total hazard per vehicle is less than 350, 000 1b-ft2/sec2, the LOS is `F'. Once evaluation of the current safety at the intersection is complete, a sensitivity analysis can be done by changing one or more input parameters. This will estimate the benefit in terms of time and budget of hazard reduction based upon improving geometric and traffic characteristics at the intersection. This method will also enable traffic engineers in local governments to generate a priority list of intersection improvement projects.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.19-28
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• 2016

PURPOSES : Long-life asphalt pavements are used widely in developed countries. In order to be able to devise an effective maintenance strategy for such pavements, in this study, we evaluated the performance of the long-life asphalt pavements constructed along the national highways in South Korea. Further, an economic evaluation of the long-life asphalt pavements was performed based on a life-cycle cost analysis. We aimed to devise a model for evaluating the performance of long-life asphalt pavements using the national highway pavement management system (PMS) database as well as for analyzing the economic feasibility of such pavements, in order to promote their use in South Korea. METHODS : The maintenance history and pavement performance data were obtained from the national highway PMS database. The pavement performances for a total of 292 sections of 10 lanes (5 northbound lanes and 5 eastbound lanes) of national highways were used in this study. Models to predict the performances of hot mix asphalt (HMA) and long-life asphalt pavements under two distinct traffic conditions were developed using a simple regression method. Further, the economic feasibility of long-life asphalt pavements was evaluated using the Korea Pavement Management System (KoPMS). RESULTS : We developed service-life prediction models based on the traffic volume and the equivalent of single-axle load and found that long-life asphalt pavements have service lives 50% longer than those of HMA pavements. Further, the results of the economic analysis showed that long-life asphalt pavements are superior in terms of various economic indexes, including user cost, delay cost, total cost, and user benefits, even though their maintenance cost is higher than that of HMA pavements. A comparison of the economic feasibilities of the various groups showed that group A is superior to HMA pavements in all aspects except in terms of the maintenance criterion (crack 20% or higher) as per the NPV index. However, the long-life asphalt pavements in group B were superior in terms of the maintenance criterion (crack 25% or higher) regardless of the economic feasibility. CONCLUSIONS : The service life of long-life asphalt pavements was found to be approximately 50% longer than that of HMA pavements, regardless of the traffic volume characteristics. The economic feasibility of long-life asphalt pavements was evaluated based on the KoPMS. The results of the economic analysis were the following: long-life asphalt pavements are exceptional in terms of almost all factors, such as user cost, delay cost, total cost, and user benefit; however, the exception is the maintenance cost. Further, the economic feasibility of the long-life asphalt pavements in group B was found to be better than that of the HMA pavements (crack 25% or higher).

• 정신신체의학
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.66-75
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• 2004

연구목적: 교통사고 후 외상의 심각도와 정신과적인 증상들과의 관계를 알아보고자 하였다. 방 법: 교통사고 후 장해평가나 감정의 목적으로 1994년부터 2003년까지 입원한 134명의 환자를 대상으로 하였다. 입원 시 기록과, 정신과적인 증상들, 심리검사로는 MMPI, BAI, BDI, K-WAIS을 평가하였다. 초진기록에 의한 외상심각도를 측정하고 맥브라이드 기준법에 의한 노동능력 상실률도 구하였다. 통계학적으로는 SPSS-10을 이용한 t-test와 Pearson correlation analysis를 시행하였다. 결 과: 외상의 심각도가 심하지 않을 경우에 오히려 자살시도가 더 많았다. 또 우울, 히스테리, 강박증, 및 반사회성척도의 점수가 높았다. 외상이 심하지 않은 경우에 집중력의 장애, 지남력의 장애, 지능의 저하가 더 심했다. 외상의 심각도와 증상을 가장하는 척도간의 관계는 없었다. 결 론: 교통사고 후 사고당시의 외상의 심각도가 정신과적 증상을 심하게 일으키는데 일치하는 것은 아니었다. 오히려 신체적 외상이 심하지 않았던 환자들이 정신의학적 증상이 심각한 경우가 많아서 신체적 손상의 정도에 기준을 두고 정신과적 증상의 평가를 섣불리 예측하는 것을 주의해야 할 것으로 생각된다.

• Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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• 제4권3호
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• pp.180-185
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• 2017

광산 활동에 의해 오염된 농경지의 복원은 개량제 처리와 복토를 기반의 미량원소 안정화 기법으로 진행되고 있다. 최근 복원된 부지 중 경사 농경지에서 토양 유실 문제가 대두되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 4종의 개량제 (벤토나이트, 석회, 유기물, 제강슬래그)를 다양한 비율로 단일 또는 복합처리 한 후 입단 형성의 효율을 평가했다. 복토재는 점토함량이 다른 3가지 토양 (A 토양=9.4%, B토양=14.7%, C 토양=21.2%)을 대상으로 했다. 단일처리 결과, A 토양은 유기물 5%, B와 C 토양은 석회 5%가 각 토양의 대조구에 비해 입단 형성이 가장 효과적이었다. 9가지 복합처리구 중에서 A 토양은 유기물 3% + 석회 1%, B와 C 토양은 유기물 1% + 석회 3% 처리구의 입단 형성이 가장 높았다 (A 토양=30.4%, B 토양=25.0%, C 토양=36.5%). 현장처리를 위해 각 복토재 (A 토양=0.045, B 토양=0.051, C 토양=0.054)와 국내 농경지의 평균 (0.032) 토양침식인자 차이만큼을 개량제에 의한 목표 입단 형성량으로 설정하였다(29.1% 입단형성). 비용편익을 고려한 최적 개량제 선정한 결과 A와 B 토양은 석회 3%, C 토양은 석회 5%가 가장 적합 했으며, 이를 통한 경사진 복원된 경사 농경지에서 토양 유실을 효과적이고 경제적으로 저감할 것으로 예측된다. 본 연구에서 석회 처리에 의한 토양 알칼리도 상승은 고려하지 않았다.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.2501-2504
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• 2014

Background: Capecitabine is an oral fluoropyrimidine derivative which is frequently used alone or in combination regimens for the treatment of metastatic breast cancer. Although overall and progression free survivals have increased in recent years with the use of new generation drugs, predictive factors that would further improve the outcomes are needed. Previous studies have demonstrated the relation between post-treatment increase in mean corpuscular volume (MCV) and predicting therapy response as well as survival. The present study investigated the clinical impact of MCV elevation in metastatic breast cancer patients treated with capecitabine. Materials and Methods: The data of a total of 82 patients from three centers followed between June 2005 and June 2013 were retrospectively analyzed. The demographic data and hormone receptor status of the patients, as well as initial examination before and after treatment and data concerning progression were recorded. MCV ${\geq}100$ fl was considered as macrocytosis. Capecitabine was given at a dose of $2500mg/m^2$ daily for 14 days every three weeks. Pre-treatment and post-treatment MCV and other parameters of complete blood count were recorded. Post-treatment initial evaluation was performed after 2 cycles of therapy. Results: The median age of the patients was 46.5 years (range 26-72 years) and 54% were premenopausal. Performance status was ECOG 0 and 1 in 81 (99%) patients. The median number of cycles for capecitabine therapy was 5 (min-max: 2-18). The median ${\Delta}MCV$ level (post-treatment values at sixth week - baseline) was 6.4. Whilst ${\Delta}MCV$ was ${\geq}6.4$ in 42 patients, it was <6.4 in 40 patients. Clinical benefit (complete response+partial response+stable disease) was observed in 37 (88%) of 42 patients with a median ${\Delta}MCV$ ${\geq}6.4$ and in 30 (75%) of 40 patients with ${\Delta}MCV$ <6.4 with no statistically significant difference (p=0.158). No significant difference was determined between the group with ${\Delta}MCV$ ${\geq}6.4$ and the group with ${\Delta}MCV$ <6.4 in terms of progression-free survival (11 vs 12 months) (p=0.55) and overall survival (20 months vs. 24 months) (p=0.11). Conclusions: The identification of new predictive markers in metastatic breast cancer is very important. In some recent studies, increase in MCV has been suggested as a marker in tumor response. In the present study, however, no significant difference was determined between tumor response and increase in MCV. Further studies including higher numbers of patients are needed to determine whether increase in MCV is a predictive marker or not.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.1313-1320
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• 2014

Introduction: Although most prostate cancers initially respond to castration with luteinizing hormonereleasing analogues or bilateral orchiectomy, progression eventually occurs. Based on the exciting results of several randomized controlled trials (RCTs), it seems that patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) might benefit more from treatment withabiraterone. Therefore we conducted a systematic review to evaluate the efficacy and toxicity of abiraterone in the treatment of mCRPC. Methods: Literature was searched from Embase, PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library up to July, 2013. Quality of the study was evaluated according to the Cochrane's risk of bias of randomized controlled trial (RCT) tool, then the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) System was used to rate the level of evidence. Stata 12.0 was used for statistical analysis. Summary data from RCTs comparing abiraterone plus prednisone versus placebo plus prednisone for mCRPC were meta-analyzed. Pooled hazard ratios (HRs) for overall survival (OS), radiographic progression-free survival (RPFS) and time to PSA progression (TTPP); Pooled risk ratios (RR) for PSA response rate, objective response rate and adverse event were calculated. Results: Ten trials were included in the systematic review; Data of 2,283 patients (1,343 abiraterone; 940 placebo) from two phase 3 trials: COU-AA-301 and COU-AA-302 were meta-analyzed. Compared with placebo, abiraterone significantly prolonged OS (HR, 0.74; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66 to 0.84), RPFS (HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.48 to 0.74) and time to PSA progression (HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.70); it also significantly increased PSA response rate (RR, 3.63; 95% CI, 1.72 to 7.65) and objective response rate (RR, 3.05; 95% CI, 1.51 to 6.15). This meta-analysis suggested that the adverse events caused by abiraterone are acceptable and can be controlled. Conclutios: Abiraterone significantly prolonged OS, RPFS and time to progression patients with mCRPC, regardless of prior chemotherapy or whether chemotherapy-na$\ddot{i}$ve, and no unexpected toxicity was evident. Abiraterone can serve as a new standard therapy for mCRPC.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제33권6호
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• pp.570-582
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• 2017

In recent years, national and local government's air quality management and climate change adaptation policy has been significantly strengthened. The measures in the two policies may be in a relationship of trade-off or synergy to each other. Greenhouse gases and air pollutants are mostly emitted from the same sources of using considerable amounts of fossil fuels. Co-benefits, in which either measure has a positive effect on the other, may be maximized by reducing the social costs and by consolidating the objectives of the various policies. In this study, the co-benefits were examined by empirically analyzing the effects of air pollutants and greenhouse gas emission reduction, social cost, and cost effectiveness between the two policies. Of the total 80 projects, the next 12 projects generated co-benefits. They are 1) extend restriction area of solid fuel use, 2) expand subsidy of low-$NO_x$ burner, 3) supply hybrid-vehicles, 4) supply electric-vehicles, 5) supply hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, 6) engine retrofit, 7) scrappage of old car, 8) low emission zone, 9) transportation demand management, 10) supply land-based electric of ship, 11) switching anthracite to clean fuel in private sector, 12) expand regional combined-energy supply. The benefits of air pollutants and greenhouse gas-related measures were an annual average of KRW 2,705.4 billion. The social benefits of the transportation demand management were the highest at an annual average of KRW 890.7 billion, and followed by scrappage of old cars and expand regional combined-energy supply. When the social benefits and the annual investment budgets are compared, the cost effectiveness ratio is estimated to be about 3.8. Overall, the reduction of air pollutants caused by the air quality management policy of Gyeonggi-do resulted in an annual average of KRW 4,790.2 billion. In the point sources management sector, the added value of $CO_2$ reduction increased by 4.8% to KRW 1,062.8 billion, while the mobile sources management sector increased by 3.6% to KRW 3,414.1 billion. If social benefits from $CO_2$ reduction are added, the annual average will increase by 7.2% to KRW 5,135.4 billion. The urban and energy management sectors have shown that social benefits increase more than twice as much as the benefits of $CO_2$ reduction. This result implies that more intensive promotion of these measures are needed. This study has significance in that it presents the results of the empirical analysis of the co-benefits generated between the similar policies in the air quality management and the climate change policy which are currently being promoted in Gyeonggi-do. This study suggested that the method of analyzing the policy effect among the main policies in the climate atmospheric policy is established and the effectiveness and priority of the major policies can be evaluated through the policy correlation analysis based on the co-benefits. It is expected that it could be a basis for evaluation the efficiency of the climate change adaptation and air quality management policies implemented by the national and local governments in the future.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제10권5호
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• pp.27-36
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• 2019

Purpose - Naver has emerged as a new leader in the open market. While existing open markets such as Gmarket, 11th Street, and so on are suffering from profitability deterioration, Naver is attracting sellers based on low commission and powerful search engine. We would like to analyze the impact of Naver shopping on the national economy, especially on employment, in a situation where the market reaction to Naver's strength as a leader in online shopping is mixed. Research Design, Data, and Methodology - Through the demand inducing inter-industry analysis, we estimate the employment inducement effect by Naver shopping from its shopping transaction. In turn, through the supply inducing inter-industry analysis, we estimate the employment inducement effect by Naver shopping from its low commission and powerful search engine. For the purpose of inter-industry analysis, as of 2018, the most recently announced 2014 inter-industry table (extension table) from the Bank of Korea is used. Results - The results of this study are as follows. First, Naver Shopping is expected to generate 7.8 trillion won's trade in 2018, resulting in 244,225 of job inducement, and 158,598 of employment inducement. In addition, Naver Shopping is estimated to benefit KRW 213 billion to its sellers due to low commission and powerful search function, resulting in 8,667 of job inducement, and 5,655 of employment inducement. Second, in terms of job inducement and employment inducement due to Naver Shopping's trade, transportation, business support service, information and communication, broadcasting, restaurants and lodging were ranked. Third, in terms of job inducement and employment inducement due to Naver Shopping's low commission and powerful search function, restaurants and hospitality, f/b and cigarette manufacturing, construction, and transportation equipment manufacturing were ranked. Conclusions - The number of job inducement resulting from low commission and powerful search engine of Naver shopping in 2018 was 8,667 (3.7% of 244,225, which was caused by transaction in Naver shopping in 2018), and employment inducement was 5,655 (3.7% of 158,598, which was caused by transaction in Naver shopping in 2018), which can be considered as additional employment impacts of Naver Shopping compared to the other online shopping operators.