• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제48권5호
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• pp.266-271
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• 2022

Background: The selection of distributions of input parameters is an important component in probabilistic exposure assessment. Goodness-of-fit (GOF) methods are used to determine the distribution of exposure factors. However, there are no clear guidelines for choosing an appropriate GOF method. Objectives: The outcomes of probabilistic consumer exposure assessment were compared by using five different GOF methods for the selection of input distributions: chi-squared test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S), Anderson-Darling test (A-D), Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Methods: Individual exposures were estimated based on product usage factor combinations from 10,000 respondents. The distribution of individual exposure was considered as the true value of population exposures. Results: Among the five GOF methods, probabilistic exposure distributions using the A-D and K-S methods were similar to individual exposure estimations. Comparing the 95th percentiles of the probabilistic distributions and the individual estimations for 10 CPs, there were 0.73 to 1.92 times differences for the A-D method, and 0.73 to 1.60 times differences (excluding tire-shine spray) for the K-S method. Conclusions: There were significant differences in exposure assessment results among the selection of the GOF methods. Therefore, the GOF methods for probabilistic consumer exposure assessment should be carefully selected.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제21권5호
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• pp.873-882
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• 2010

본 논문에서는 비재생혼합보증이 종료된 이후의 교체정책에 대한 베이지안 접근을 고려한다. 이때, 비재생혼합보증은 비재생무료교체보증과 비재생비례교체보증의 혼합된 형태가 된다. 최적의 교체주기를 결정하기 위하여 기대비용과 기대비가동시간에 근거한 기준이 사용되는데, 이를 위해서 단위시간당 기대비용과 단위시간당 기대비가동시간이 각각 구해진다. 시스템의 고장시간이 불확실한 모수를 갖는 와이블분포를 할 때, 베이지안 접근에 근거하여 최적의 교체정책이 제안된다. 이때, 최적의 교체주기를 결정하기 위해서 Jiang과 Ji (2002)에 의해서 제안된 총밸류함수가 사용된다. 끝으로, 본 논문에서 제안된 베이지안 교체정책을 설명하기 위해서 수치적 예를 살펴본다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.743-752
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• 2004

In this paper, we develop the Bayesian model selection procedure using the reference prior for comparing two nested model such as the independent and intraclass models using the distance or divergence between the two as the basis of comparison. A suitable criterion for this is the power divergence measure as introduced by Cressie and Read(1984). Such a measure includes the Kullback -Liebler divergence measures and the Hellinger divergence measure as special cases. For this problem, the power divergence measure turns out to be a function solely of $\rho$, the intraclass correlation coefficient. Also, this function is convex, and the minimum is attained at $\rho=0$. We use reference prior for $\rho$. Due to the duality between hypothesis tests and set estimation, the hypothesis testing problem can also be solved by solving a corresponding set estimation problem. The present paper develops Bayesian method based on the Kullback-Liebler and Hellinger divergence measures, rejecting $H_0:\rho=0$ when the specified divergence measure exceeds some number d. This number d is so chosen that the resulting credible interval for the divergence measure has specified coverage probability $1-{\alpha}$. The length of such an interval is compared with the equal two-tailed credible interval and the HPD credible interval for $\rho$ with the same coverage probability which can also be inverted into acceptance regions of $H_0:\rho=0$. Example is considered where the HPD interval based on the one-at- a-time reference prior turns out to be the shortest credible interval having the same coverage probability.

• Animal Bioscience
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.185-191
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• 2021

Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate the genetic parameters for worm resistance (WR) and associated characteristics, using the linear-threshold animal model via Bayesian inference in single- and multiple-trait analyses. Methods: Data were collected from a herd of Santa Inês breed sheep. All information was collected with animals submitted to natural contamination conditions. All data (number of eggs per gram of feces [FEC], Famacha score [FS], body condition score [BCS], and hematocrit [HCT]) were collected on the same day. The animals were weighed individually on the day after collection (after 12-h fasting). The WR trait was defined by the multivariate cluster analysis, using the FEC, HCT, BCS, and FS of material collected from naturally infected sheep of the Santa Inês breed. The variance components and genetic parameters for the WR, FEC, HCT, BCS, and FS traits were estimated using the Bayesian inference under the linear and threshold animal model. Results: A low magnitude was obtained for repeatability of worm-related traits. The mean values estimated for heritability were of low-to-high (0.05 to 0.88) magnitude. The FEC, HCT, BCS, FS, and body weight traits showed higher heritability (although low magnitude) in the multiple-trait model due to increased information about traits. All WR characters showed a significant genetic correlation, and heritability estimates ranged from low (0.44; single-trait model) to high (0.88; multiple-trait model). Conclusion: Therefore, we suggest that FS be included as a criterion of ovine genetic selection for endoparasite resistance using the trait defined by multivariate cluster analysis, as it will provide greater genetic gains when compared to any single trait. In addition, its measurement is easy and inexpensive, exhibiting greater heritability and repeatability and a high genetic correlation with the trait of resistance to worms.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.1225-1239
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• 2016

We investigate pediatric tumor incidence data collected by the Florida Association for Pediatric Tumor program using various models commonly used in disease mapping analysis. Particularly, we consider Poisson normal models with various conditional autoregressive structure for spatial dependence, a zero-in ated component to capture excess zero counts and a spatio-temporal model to capture spatial and temporal dependence, together. We found that intrinsic conditional autoregressive model provides the smallest Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) among the models when only spatial dependence is considered. On the other hand, adding an autoregressive structure over time decreases DIC over the model without time dependence component. We adopt weighted ranks squared error loss to identify high risk regions which provides similar results with other researchers who have worked on the same data set (e.g. Zhang et al., 2014; Wang and Rodriguez, 2014). Our results, thus, provide additional statistical support on those identied high risk regions discovered by the other researchers.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제28권5호
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• pp.537-551
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• 2021

We conducted a study on a regression spline estimator with a few pre-specified auxiliary variables. For the implementation of the proposed estimators, we adapted a coordinate descent algorithm. This was implemented by considering a structure of the sum of the residuals squared objective function determined by the B-spline and the auxiliary coefficients. We also considered an efficient stepwise knot selection algorithm based on the Bayesian information criterion. This was to adaptively select smoothly functioning estimator data. Numerical studies using both simulated and real data sets were conducted to illustrate the proposed method's performance. An R software package psav is available.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.47-59
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• 2020

본 논문에서는 마코프 이항 회귀 모형의 시차가 알려져 있거나 그렇지 않은 경우일 때, t-링크 함수를 갖는 종단적 마코프 이항 회귀 모형을 제시한다. 일반적으로, 이항 회귀 모형에서는 로직 모형이나 프로빗 모형이 주로 사용된다. t-링크 함수는 t 분포가 자유도가 커질수록 정규분포로 근사하기 때문에 프로빗 모형을 대신 더 많은 유연성을 위해 사용될 수 있다. 게다가 마코프 회귀모형은 종단 자료에 대해 사용될 수 있다. 우리는 마코프 회귀 모형의 시차를 결정하기 위해 베이지안 방법을 제시하고자 한다. 특히, 각 모델의 차수에 대해 알고 있는 경우에는 DIC를 기준으로 모델 비교를 실시하였다. 모델의 차수에 대해 모르는 경우에는 가능한 모델들의 사후 확률을 이용하였다. 복잡한 베이지안 계산을 해결하기 위하여 Albert와 Chib (1993), Kuo와 Mallick (1998)과 Erkanli 등 (2001)의 방법을 이용하여 모델을 재설정하였다. 제안하는 방법은 시뮬레이션 데이터와 Somer 등 (1984)에 의해 조사된 인도네시아 어린이 종단 데이터에 적용했다. 마코프 이항 회귀모형의 순서에 대해서 아는 경우와 모르는 경우를 각각 가정하여 최적의 모델을 알아보기 위해 MCMC 방법을 사용하였다. 또한, 매트로폴리스 해스팅 알고리즘의 수렴성을 점검하기 위해 Gelman과 Rubin의 진단을 이용했다.

• 천문학회보
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• 제46권1호
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• pp.31.2-31.2
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• 2021

To estimate the contribution of quasars on keeping the IGM ionized, building a quasar luminosity function (LF) is necessary. Quasar LFs derived from multiple quasar surveys, however, are incompatible, especially for the faint regime, emphasizing the need for deep images. In this study, we construct quasar LF reaching M₁₄₅₀~-21.5 AB magnitude at z ~ 5, which is 1.5 mag deeper than previously reported LFs, using deep images from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP). We trained an artificial neural network (ANN) by inserting the colors as inputs to classify the quasars at z ~ 5 from the late-type stars and low-redshift galaxies. The accuracy of ANN is > 99 %. We also adopted the Bayesian information criterion to elaborate on the quasar-like objects. As a result, we recovered 5/5 confirmed quasars and remarkably minimized the contamination rate of high-redshift galaxies by up to six times compared to the selection using color selection alone. The constructed quasar parametric LF shows a flatter faint-end slope α=-127^+0.16_-0.15 similar to the recent LFs. The number of faint quasars (M₁₄₅₀ < -23.5) is too few to be the main contributor to IGM ionizing photons.

• 대한전자공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전자공학회 2001년도 하계종합학술대회 논문집(4)
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• pp.159-162
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• 2001

In this Paper, a new multi-sensor single-target tracking method in cluttered environment is proposed. Unlike the established methods such as probabilistic data association filter (PDAF), the proposed method intends to reflect the information in detection phase into parameters in tracking so as to reduce uncertainty due to clutter. This is achieved by first modifying the Bayes risk in Bayesian detection criterion to incorporate the likelihood of measurements from multiple sensors. The final estimate is then computed by taking a linear combination of the likelihood and the estimate of measurements. We develop the procedure and discuss the results from representative simulations.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제24권6호
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• pp.673-683
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• 2017

The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) has been a popular regression estimator with simultaneous variable selection. However, LASSO does not have the oracle property and its robust version is needed in the case of heavy-tailed errors or serious outliers. We propose a robust penalized regression estimator which provide a simultaneous variable selection and estimator. It is based on the rank regression and the non-convex penalty function, the smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) function which has the oracle property. The proposed method combines the robustness of the rank regression and the oracle property of the SCAD penalty. We develop an efficient algorithm to compute the proposed estimator that includes a SCAD estimate based on the local linear approximation and the tuning parameter of the penalty function. Our estimate can be obtained by the least absolute deviation method. We used an optimal tuning parameter based on the Bayesian information criterion and the cross validation method. Numerical simulation shows that the proposed estimator is robust and effective to analyze contaminated data.