• Title/Summary/Keyword: Bayesian decision theory

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SOCMTD: Selecting Optimal Countermeasure for Moving Target Defense Using Dynamic Game

  • Hu, Hao;Liu, Jing;Tan, Jinglei;Liu, Jiang
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.14 no.10
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    • pp.4157-4175
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    • 2020
  • Moving target defense, as a 'game-changing' security technique for network warfare, realizes proactive defense by increasing network dynamics, uncertainty and redundancy. How to select the best countermeasure from the candidate countermeasures to maximize defense payoff becomes one of the core issues. In order to improve the dynamic analysis for existing decision-making, a novel approach of selecting the optimal countermeasure using game theory is proposed. Based on the signal game theory, a multi-stage adversary model for dynamic defense is established. Afterwards, the payoffs of candidate attack-defense strategies are quantified from the viewpoint of attack surface transfer. Then the perfect Bayesian equilibrium is calculated. The inference of attacker type is presented through signal reception and recognition. Finally the countermeasure for selecting optimal defense strategy is designed on the tradeoff between defense cost and benefit for dynamic network. A case study of attack-defense confrontation in small-scale LAN shows that the proposed approach is correct and efficient.

An Approach to Detect Spam E-mail with Abnormal Character Composition (비정상 문자 조합으로 구성된 스팸 메일의 탐지 방법)

  • Lee, Ho-Sub;Cho, Jae-Ik;Jung, Man-Hyun;Moon, Jong-Sub
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.18 no.6A
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    • pp.129-137
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    • 2008
  • As the use of the internet increases, the distribution of spam mail has also vastly increased. The email's main use was for the exchange of information, however, currently it is being more frequently used for advertisement and malware distribution. This is a serious problem because it consumes a large amount of the limited internet resources. Furthermore, an extensive amount of computer, network and human resources are consumed to prevent it. As a result much research is being done to prevent and filter spam. Currently, research is being done on readable sentences which do not use proper grammar. This type of spam can not be classified by previous vocabulary analysis or document classification methods. This paper proposes a method to filter spam by using the subject of the mail and N-GRAM for indexing and Bayesian, SVM algorithms for classification.

A Study on the Determination of the Risk-Loaded Premium using Risk Measures in the Credibility Theory (신뢰도이론에서 위험측도를 이용한 할증보험료 결정에 대한 고찰)

  • Kim, Hyun Tae;Jeon, Yongho
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.71-87
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    • 2014
  • The Bayes premium or the net premium in the credibility theory does not reflect the underlying tail risk. In this study we examine how the tail risk measures can be utilized in determining the risk premium. First, we show that the risk measures can not only provide the proper risk loading, but also allow the insurer to avoid the wrong decision made with the Bayesian premium alone. Second, it is illustrated that the rank of the tail thickness among different conditional loss distributions does not preserve for the corresponding predictive distributions, even if they share the identical prior variable. The implication of this result is that the risk loading for a contract should be based on the risk measure of the predictive loss distribution not the conditional one.