• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.395-400
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• 2011

In this paper, we propose an study of the facial emotion recognition considering the dynamical variation of emotional state in facial image sequences. The proposed system consists of two main step: facial image based emotional feature extraction and emotional state classification/recognition. At first, we propose a method for extracting and analyzing the emotional feature region using a combination of Active Shape Model (ASM) and Facial Action Units (FAUs). And then, it is proposed that emotional state classification and recognition method based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM) type of dynamic Bayesian network. Also, we adopt a Harmony Search (HS) algorithm based heuristic optimization procedure in a parameter learning of HMM in order to classify the emotional state more accurately. By using all these methods, we construct the emotion recognition system based on variations of the dynamic facial image sequence and make an attempt at improvement of the recognition performance.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.63 no.1
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• pp.47-53
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• 2017

The fundamental goal of this study is to minimize the uncertainty of the median fragility curve and to assess the structural vulnerability under earthquake excitation. Bayesian Inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been presented for efficient collapse response assessment of the independent intake water tower. The intake tower is significantly used as a diversion type of the hydropower station for maintaining power plant, reservoir and spillway tunnel. Therefore, the seismic fragility assessment of the intake tower is a pivotal component for estimating total system risk of the reservoir. In this investigation, an asymmetrical independent slender reinforced concrete structure is considered. The Bayesian Inference method provides the flexibility to integrate the prior information of collapse response data with the numerical analysis results. The preliminary information of risk data can be obtained from various sources like experiments, existing studies, and simplified linear dynamic analysis or nonlinear static analysis. The conventional lognormal model is used for plotting the fragility curve using the data from time history simulation and nonlinear static pushover analysis respectively. The Bayesian Inference approach is applied for integrating the data from both analyses with the help of MCMC simulation. The method achieves meaningful improvement of uncertainty associated with the fragility curve, and provides significant statistical and computational efficiency.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.705-713
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• 2018

High-speed rail (HSR) has been in operation and development in many countries worldwide. The explosive growth of HSR has posed great challenges for operation safety and ride comfort. Among various technological demands on high-speed trains, vibration is an inevitable problem caused by rail/wheel imperfections, vehicle dynamics, and aerodynamic instability. Ride comfort is a key factor in evaluating the operational performance of high-speed trains. In this study, online monitoring data have been acquired from an in-service high-speed train for condition assessment. The measured dynamic response signals at the floor level of a train cabin are processed by the Sperling operator, in which the ride comfort index sequence is used to identify the train's operation condition. In addition, a novel technique that incorporates salient features of Bayesian inference and time series analysis is proposed for outlier detection and change detection. The Bayesian forecasting approach enables the prediction of conditional probabilities. By integrating the Bayesian forecasting approach with time series analysis, one-step forecasting probability density functions (PDFs) can be obtained before proceeding to the next observation. The change detection is conducted by comparing the current model and the alternative model (whose mean value is shifted by a prescribed offset) to determine which one can well fit the actual observation. When the comparison results indicate that the alternative model performs better, then a potential change is detected. If the current observation is a potential outlier or change, Bayes factor and cumulative Bayes factor are derived for further identification. A significant change, if identified, implies that there is a great alteration in the train operation performance due to defects. In this study, two illustrative cases are provided to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method for condition assessment of high-speed trains.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.84-132
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• 2020

A central bank infers market expectations of future yields based on yield curves. The central bank needs to precisely understand the changes in market expectations of future yields in order to have a more effective monetary policy. This need explains why a range of models have attempted to produce yield curves and market expectations that are as accurate as possible. Alongside the development of bond markets, the interconnectedness between them and macroeconomic factors has deepened, and this has rendered understanding of what macroeconomic variables affect yield curves even more important. However, the existence of various theories about determinants of yields inevitably means that previous studies have applied different macroeconomics variables when estimating yield curves. This indicates model uncertainties and naturally poses a question: Which model better estimates yield curves? Put differently, which variables should be applied to better estimate yield curves? This study employs the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model and takes the Bayesian approach to variable selection in order to ensure precision in estimating yield curves and market expectations of future yields. Bayesian variable selection may be an effective estimation method because it is expected to alleviate problems arising from a priori selection of the key variables comprising a model, and because it is a comprehensive approach that efficiently reflects model uncertainties in estimations. A comparison of Bayesian variable selection with the models of previous studies finds that the question of which macroeconomic variables are applied to a model has considerable impact on market expectations of future yields. This shows that model uncertainties exert great influence on the resultant estimates, and that it is reasonable to reflect model uncertainties in the estimation. Those implications are underscored by the superior forecasting performance of Bayesian variable selection models over those models used in previous studies. Therefore, the use of a Bayesian variable selection model is advisable in estimating yield curves and market expectations of yield curves with greater exactitude in consideration of the impact of model uncertainties on the estimation.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.193-205
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• 1997

The multiprocess dynamic model provides a good framework for the modeling and analysis of the time series that contains outliers and is subject to abrupt changes in pattern. In this paper we consider the multiprocess discount generalized model with parameters having a dependent non-linear structure. This model has nice properties such as insensitivity to outliers and quick reaction to abrupt change of pattern in parameters.

• Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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• 2006.06a
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• pp.681-682
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• 2006

일반적으로 축구 비디오 데이터는 멀티모달과 멀티레이어 속성을 지닌다. 이러한 데이터를 다루기 적합한 모델은 동적 베이지안 네트워크(Dynamic Bayesian Network: DBN) 형태의 위계적 은닉 마르코프 모델(Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model: HHMM)이다. 이러한 HHMM 중 다중속성의 특징들이 서로 상호작용하는 PHHMM(Product Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model)이 있다. 본 논문에서는 PHHMM 을 축구 경기의 Play/Break 이벤트 검색 및 분석에 적용하였고 바람직한 결과를 얻었다.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.125-138
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• 2017

The goal of the study is to understand how consumers' constraint as opposed to utility structure gives rise to final decision when consumers purchase more than one variant of product at a time, i.e., horizontal variety seeking or multiple-discreteness. Purchase and consumption decision not only produces utility but also involves some sort of cognitive pressure. Past consumption or last purchase is likely to be linked to this burden we face such as concern for obesity, risk of harm, and guilt for mischief. In this research, the existence and the role of dynamic constraint are investigated through a microeconomic utility model with multiple dynamic constraint. The model is applied to the salty snacks data collected from field study where burden for spiciness serves as a constraint. The results are compared to the conventional multiple discreteness choice models of static constraints, and policy implications on price discounts is explored. The major findings are that first, one would underestimate the level of consumer preference for product offerings when ignoring the carry-over of the concern from the past consumption, and second, the impact of price promotion on demand would be properly evaluated when the model allows for the role of constraint as both multiple and dynamic. The current study is different from the existing studies in two ways. First, it captures the effect of 'mental constraint' on demand in formal economic model. Second, unlike the state dependence well documented in the literature, the study proposes the notion of state dependence in different way, via constraint rather than utility.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.85-94
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• 2023

Image halftoning is a technique for varying grayscale images into two-tone binary images. Unfortunately, the static representation of an image-half toning, wherever each pixel intensity is combined by its local neighbors only, causes missing subjective problem. Also, the existing noise causes an instability criterion. In this paper an image half-toning is represented as a dynamical system for recognizing the global representation. Also, noise is reduced based on a probabilistic model. Since image half-toning is considered as 2-D matrix with a full connected pass, this structure is recognized by the dynamical system of Cellular Neural Networks (CNNs) which is defined by its template. Bayesian Rough Sets is used in exploiting the ideal CNNs construction that synthesis its dynamic. Also, Bayesian rough sets contribute to enhance the quality of the halftone image by removing noise and discovering the effective parameters in the CNNs template. The novelty of this method lies in finding a probabilistic based technique to discover the term of CNNs template and define new learning rules for CNNs internal work. A numerical experiment is conducted on image half-toning corrupted by Gaussian noise.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.75-83
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• 2015

In mobile ad-hoc networks (MANETs), nodes are mobile in nature. Collaboration between mobile nodes is more significant in MANETs, which have as their greatest challenges vulnerabilities to various security attacks and an inability to operate securely while preserving its resources and performing secure routing among nodes. Therefore, it is essential to develop an effective secure routing protocol to protect the nodes from anonymous behaviors. Currently, game theory is a tool that analyzes, formulates and solves selfishness issues. It is seldom applied to detect malicious behavior in networks. It deals, instead, with the strategic and rational behavior of each node. In our study,we used the dynamic Bayesian signaling game to analyze the strategy profile for regular and malicious nodes. This game also revealed the best actions of individual strategies for each node. Perfect Bayesian equilibrium (PBE) provides a prominent solution for signaling games to solve incomplete information by combining strategies and payoff of players that constitute equilibrium. Using PBE strategies of nodes are private information of regular and malicious nodes. Regular nodes should be cooperative during routing and update their payoff, while malicious nodes take sophisticated risks by evaluating their risk of being identified to decide when to decline. This approach minimizes the utility of malicious nodes and it motivates better cooperation between nodes by using the reputation system. Regular nodes monitor continuously to evaluate their neighbors using belief updating systems of the Bayes rule.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.60 no.1
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• pp.87-99
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• 2024

This study deals with the application of an artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict power consumption for utilizing seawater source heat pumps of recirculating aquaculture system. An integrated dynamic simulation model was constructed using the TRNSYS program to obtain input and output data for the ANN model to predict the power consumption of the recirculating aquaculture system with a heat pump system. Data obtained from the TRNSYS program were analyzed using linear regression, and converted into optimal data necessary for the ANN model through normalization. To optimize the ANN-based power consumption prediction model, the hyper parameters of ANN were determined using the Bayesian optimization. ANN simulation results showed that ANN models with optimized hyper parameters exhibited acceptably high predictive accuracy conforming to ASHRAE standards.