• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.7
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• pp.489-502
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• 2017

The objective of this study is to propose and evaluate the BAYES-ESP, which is a dam inflow prediction method based on Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method (ESP) and Bayesian theory. ABCD rainfall-runoff model was used to predict monthly dam inflow. Monthly meteorological data collected from KMA, MOLIT and K-water and dam inflow data collected from K-water were used for the model calibration and verification. To estimate the performance of ABCD model, ESP and BAYES-ESP method, time series analysis and skill score (SS) during 1986~2015 were used. In time series analysis monthly ESP dam inflow prediction values were nearly similar for every years, particularly less accurate in wet and dry years. The proposed BAYES-ESP improved the performance of ESP, especially in wet year. The SS was used for quantitative analysis of monthly mean of observed dam inflows, predicted values from ESP and BAYES-ESP. The results indicated that the SS values of ESP were relatively high in January, February and March but negative values in the other months. It also showed that the BAYES-ESP improved ESP when the values from ESP and observation have a relatively apparent linear relationship. We concluded that the existing ESP method has a limitation to predict dam inflow in Korea due to the seasonality of precipitation pattern and the proposed BAYES-ESP is meaningful for improving dam inflow prediction accuracy of ESP.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.53-66
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• 1993

A Bayesian approach is suggested to the multi-proportions randomized response model. O'Hagan's (1987) Bayes linear estimator is extended to the inference of unrelated question-type randomized response model. Also some numerical comparisons are provided to show the performance of the Bayes linear estimator under the Dirichlet prior.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.317-329
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• 2006

In the problem of estimating the error variance in the balanced fixed- effects one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) model, Ghosh (1994) proposed hierarchical Bayes estimators and raised a conjecture for which all of his hierarchical Bayes estimators are admissible. In this paper we prove this conjecture is true by representing one-way ANOVA model to the distributional form of a multiparameter exponential family.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.29 no.5
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• pp.547-559
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• 2022

For a chi-squared test, which is a statistical method used to test the independence of a contingency table of two factors, the expected frequency of each cell must be greater than 5. The percentage of cells with an expected frequency below 5 must be less than 20% of all cells. However, there are many cases in which the regional expected frequency is below 5 in general small area studies. Even in large-scale surveys, it is difficult to forecast the expected frequency to be greater than 5 when there is small area estimation with subgroup analysis. Another statistical method to test independence is to use the Bayes factor, but since there is a high ratio of data dependency due to the nature of the Bayesian approach, the low expected frequency tends to decrease the precision of the test results. To overcome these limitations, we will borrow information from areas with similar characteristics and pool the data statistically to propose a pooled Bayes test of independence in target areas. Jo et al. (2021) suggested hierarchical Bayesian pooling models for small area estimation of categorical data, and we will introduce the pooled Bayes factors calculated by expanding their restricted pooling model. We applied the pooled Bayes factors using bone mineral density and body mass index data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey conducted in the United States and compared them with chi-squared tests often used in tests of independence.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.445-461
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• 1994

This paper deals with the problem of obtaining some Bayes estimators and Bayesian credible regions of a reliability function for the Rayleigh distribution. Using several priors for a reliability function some Bayes estimators and Bayes credible sets are proposed and studied under squared error loss and Harris loss. Also the performances and behaviors of the proposed Bayes estimators are examined via Monte Carlo simulations and some numericla examples are given.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.315-324
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• 2002

For estimating the error variance under the relative squared error loss in two-way analysis of variance models, we provide a class of hierarchical Bayes estimators and then derive a subclass of the hierarchical Bayes estimators, each member of which dominates the best multiple of the error sum of squares which is known to be minimax. We also identify a subclass of non-minimax hierarchical Bayes estimators.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.29 no.1
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• pp.81-94
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• 2000

For the balanced variance component model, sometimes intraclass correlation coefficient is of interest. If there is little information about the parameter, then the reference prior(Berger and Bernardo, 1992) is widely used. Pettit nd Young(1990) considered a measrue of the effect of a single observation on a logarithmic Bayes factor. However, under such a reference prior, the Bayes factor depends on the ratio of unspecified constants. In order to discard this problem, influence diagnostic measures using the intrinsic Bayes factor(Berger and Pericchi, 1996) is presented. Finally, one simulated dataset is provided which illustrates the methodology with appropriate simulation based computational formulas. In order to overcome the difficult Bayesian computation, MCMC methods, such as Gibbs sampler(Gelfand and Smith, 1990) and Metropolis algorithm, are empolyed.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.169-189
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• 2004

Under the assumption of default priors, such as noninformative priors, Bayesian model determination and parameter estimation of regression models with stationary and invertible ARMA errors are developed under exact full likelihoods. The default Bayes factors, the fractional Bayes factor (FBF) of O'Hagan (1995) and the arithmetic intrinsic Bayes factors (AIBF) of Berger and Pericchi (1996a), are used as tools for the selection of the Bayesian model. Bayesian estimates are obtained by running the Metropolis-Hastings subchain in the Gibbs sampler. Finally, the results of numerical studies, designed to check the performance of the theoretical results discussed here, are presented.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.73-92
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• 1999

In Bayesian model selection or testing problems, one cannot utilize standard or default noninformative priors, since these priors are typically improper and are defined only up to arbitrary constants. The resulting Bayes factors are not well defined. A recently proposed model selection criterion, the intrinsic Bayes factor overcomes such problems by using a part of the sample as a training sample to get a proper posterior and then use the posterior as the prior for the remaining observations to compute the Bayes factor. Surprisingly, such Bayes factor can also be computed directly from the full sample by some proper priors, namely intrinsic priors. The present paper explains how to derive intrinsic priors for simple tree ordered exponential means. Some numerical results are also provided to support theoretical results and compare with classical methods.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.13 no.10
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• pp.5260-5275
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• 2019

In the process of constructing the traditional offensive and defensive game theory model, these are some shortages for considering the dynamic change of security risk problem. By analysing the critical indicators of the incomplete information game theory model, incomplete information attack and defense game theory model and the mathematical engineering method for solving Bayes-Nash equilibrium, the risk-averse income function for information assets is summarized as the problem of maximising the return of the equilibrium point. To obtain the functional relationship between the optimal strategy combination of the offense and defense and the information asset security probability and risk probability. At the same time, the offensive and defensive examples are used to visually analyse and demonstrate the incomplete information game and the Harsanyi conversion method. First, the incomplete information game and the Harsanyi conversion problem is discussed through the attack and defense examples and using the game tree. Then the strategy expression of incomplete information static game and the engineering mathematics method of Bayes-Nash equilibrium are given. After that, it focuses on the offensive and defensive game problem of unsafe information network based on risk aversion. The problem of attack and defense is obtained by the issue of maximizing utility, and then the Bayes-Nash equilibrium of offense and defense game is carried out around the security risk of assets. Finally, the application model in network security penetration and defense is analyzed by designing a simulation example of attack and defense penetration. The analysis results show that the constructed income function model is feasible and practical.