• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.33 no.12
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• pp.1482-1487
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• 2009

In this study statistical analysis was performed for NDI(Non-Destructive Inspection) results of F100 engine front seal support assembly. NDI results can be statistically considered as Quantal Response Data. It is found that the suitable probability distribution to the failure data is normal distribution through MLE(Maximum Likelihood Estimation) of the Quantal Response Data. Moreover, Cumulative Distribution Function, failure rate function and B-Life are calculated on the supposed distribution.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.566-571
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• 2012

The door systems in urban railway vehicles, through heavy maintenance checks by six years, 75 parts for 34 part types in 75 units have to be replaced periodically, and the remaining 68 parts for 40 part types to be replaced occasionally based on the necessity. Even though this process makes the door systems almost to be initial status, the systems have complicated mixes of components with new parts and used and then have different property from the original ones. This study suggested a burn-in test as a subsidiary tool to improve the reliability of urban railway vehicles, and suitable for testing conditions and the proposed new target value.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers P
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• v.58 no.4
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• pp.410-415
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• 2009

With the implementation of electric power industry reform, the utilities are looking for effective ways to improve the economic efficiency. One area in particular, the equipment maintenance, is being scrutinized for reducing costs while keeping a reasonable level of the reliability in the overall system. Here the conventional RCM requires the tradeoff between the upfront maintenance costs and the potential costs of losing loads. In this paper we describe the issues related to applying so-called the "Reliability-centered Maintenance" (RCM) method in managing electric power distribution equipment. The RCM method is especially useful as it explicitly incorporates the cost-tradeoff of interest, i.e. the upfront maintenance costs and the potential interruption costs, in determining which equipment to be maintained and how often. In comparison, the "Time-based Maintenance" (TBM) method, the traditional method widely used, only takes the lifetime of equipment into consideration. In this paper, the modified Markov model for maintenance is developed. First, the existing Markov model for maintenance is explained and analyzed about transformer and circuit breaker, so on. Second, developed model is introduced and described. This model has two different points compared with existing model: TVFR and nonlinear customer interruption cost (CIC). That is, normal stage at the middle of bathtub curve has not CFR but the gradual increasing failure rate and the unit cost of CIC is increasing as the interruption time is increasing. The results of case studies represent the optimal maintenance interval to maintain the equipment with minimum costs. A numerical example is presented for illustration purposes.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.54 no.11
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• pp.548-556
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• 2005

Reliability evaluation of power distribution system is very important to both power utilities and customers. It present the probabilistic number and duration of interruption such as failure rate, SATDI, SAIFI, and CAIDI. However, it has a fatal weakness at reliability index because of accuracy of failure rate. In this paper, the Time-varying Failure Rate(TFR) of power distribution system equipment is extracted from the recorded failure data of KEPCO(Korea Electric Power Corporation) in Korea. For TFR extraction, it is used that the fault data accumulated by KEPCO during 10 years. The TFR is approximated to bathtub curve using the exponential(random failure) and Weibull(aging failure) distribution function. In addition, Kaplan-Meier estimation is applied to TFR extraction because of incomplete failure data of KEPCO. Finally, Probability plot and regression analysis is applied. It is presented that the extracted TFR is more effective and useful than Mean Failure Rate(MfR) through the comparison between TFR and MFR

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.34 no.6
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• pp.781-787
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• 2010

Forecasting possible failure characteristics is very important in maintenance planning because it helps in predicting any future failures and determining the optimum replacement interval. This paper examines the time.to-failure distribution of the transfer gearbox of a J79 engine by using a probability plotting technique which is one of the most convenient techniques for reliability analysis. Various probability distributions are evaluated for determining the suitable probability distribution of the failure data of the transfer gearbox, and the resulting correlation coefficient indicates that failure data have a lognormal distribution. The expected number of unscheduled maintenance actions and the optimum replacement interval for various values of cost ratios are determined.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.372-378
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• 2018

Life management technology is required as the failure risk of aged power transformers increases. Asset management technology is developed to evaluate the remaining life, establish the replacement strategies, and decide the optimal investment based on the reliability and economy of power transformers. The remaining life assessment uses data such as installation, operation, maintenance, refurbishment, and failure of power transformers. The optimal investment also uses data such as maintenance, outage, and social costs. To develop the asset management system for power transformers, determining the degradation parameters related to the aging of power transformers and evaluating the condition of power transformers using these parameters are important. In this study, since 1983, 110,000 Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA) data have been analyzed to determine the degradation parameters related to the aging of power transformers. The alarm rates of combustible gases ($H_2$, $C_2H_2$, $C_2H_4$, $CH_4$, and $C_2H_6$), TCG, CO, and $CO_2$ were analyzed. The end of life and failure rate (bathtub curve) of power transformers were also calculated based on the failure data from 1981 to 2014. The DGA gases related to discharge, overheating, and insulation degradation were determined based on alarm and failure rates. $C_2H_2$, $C_2H_6$, and $CO_2$ were discharge, oxidation, and insulation degradation parameters related to the aging of power transformers.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2008.05a
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• pp.490-494
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• 2008

본 연구에서는 상수도 배수관로의 내 외부적 특성에 따라 개별관로를 정의하는 방법을 연구대상 지역의 배수관로 파손 데이터베이스에 적용하여 비례위험모형을 구축하였다. 연구에 사용된 자료는 연구대상지역의 배수관로의 제원 및 파손시기를 포함하는 관로 파손데이터베이스, 관로매설지역의 급수인구 및 수압범위에 관한 자료를 포함하는 GRID 데이터베이스와 관로매설지역의 토지개발 정도에 관한 자료를 포함한다. 이러한 자료를 이용하여 관로를 순차적 파손경험에 따라 7개의 생존시간군(STG I $\sim$ VII)으로 구분하고 각 생존시간군에 대한 비례위험모형(Model I $\sim$ VII)을 구축하였다. 이러한 모형을 이용하여 관로의 파손횟수가 증가하는 동안 파손에 영향을 미치는 인자의 변화와 그 효과를 파악하였으며, 또한 추정된 공변수의 위험비율을 분석함으로써 관로의 제원 혹은 매설환경, 급수인구 등에 따른 위험률의 상대적인 변화를 분석하였다. 또한 비례 위험모형의 구축과정에서 관로의 파손에 영향을 미치는 공변수의 비례성 가정을 검토하여 시간종속형 공변수를 모형화하였으며, 모형의 이탈잔차(deviance residual)를 분석하여 모형의 적합성을 검토하였다. 본 연구에서 구축된 비례위험모형에 대해 Shoenfeld 잔차를 이용한 스코어 잔차의 변화(score process)를 검토한 결과, Model I 과 Model II 에 대해서는 공변수의 시간종속 효과가 발견되었다. Model I에 대해서는 관로재질과 급수인구의 영향이 시간에 따라 변하며 Model II에서는 급수인구의 영향만이 시간에 따라 변하는 것으로 나타났다. 한편 Model III $\sim$ Model VII 들에 대해서는 공변수의 영향이 시간에 따라 변하지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 각 생존시간군에 대해 관로재질, 토지개발정도, 관로길이 및 급수인구의 변화가 관로의 상대적 누수위험률에 미치는 영향을 상대위험률의 95% 신뢰구간을 고려하여 정량적으로 산정하였고, 시간 종속형 공변수로 모형화된 공변수는 시간에 따른 공변수 영향의 변화를 분석하였다. 순차적 파손사건에 대한 비례위험모형의 구축 결과 생존시간군(STG) I의 기저위험률은 매설 후 대략 450개월까지는 파손 위험률이 '0'에 가까우나 그 이후로 급격히 증가하다가 매설 후 약 700개월에 이르러서는 약간 감소하고 약 850개월 이후에는 다시 급격히 증가한다. STG II의 기저위험률은 첫 번째 파손 후 약 300개월이 되면 위험률이 급격히 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. STG III $\sim$ STG VII의 기저위험률은 이차함수의 형태를 띄며, 특히 STG V, STG VI 및 STG VII의 기저위험률은 욕조형 곡선(bathtub curve)의 형태를 가진다. 각 생존시간군의 기저생존함수의 생존확률 '0.5'에 해당하는 기저중간생존시간에 대한 분석으로부터 파손횟수가 많아질수록 순차적 파손사건 사이의 경과시간은 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 기저생존시간에 대한 경향은 관로의 파손횟수가 많아질수록 관로의 일반적은 내구성은 감소하기 때문인 것으로 분석된다.