• Title/Summary/Keyword: Bass model

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A Study on Forecasting the Diffusion of Certified Testing Service Institutions and Direction of Policy Making in Defense Industry (방산분야 공인시험기관의 수요확산 예측 및 정책 방향 연구)

  • Lee, Yong-Hak;Cho, Hyun-Ki;Kim, Woo-Je;Kang, Cho-Rong
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.255-263
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    • 2012
  • In order to ensure the reliability and specialty of weapon system test results, a policy of extending certified testing service institutions has been driven by applying accreditation system of the ones in defense industry. Bass and Logistic models are used to apply the policy effectively and forecast the diffusion pattern of certified testing service institutions. The parameters for diffusion forecast are estimated using the diffusion pattern of certified testing service institutions in non-defense industry, and these are applied to forecast the diffusion of certified ones in defense industry. Coefficients of innovation and imitation of Bass model are analyzed to derive the factors influencing the early adoption and diffusion patterns. The more increasing the coefficients, the earlier adoption occurred. Diffusion pattern due to coefficient of imitation, internal factor, has larger effect on sensitivity of diffusion pattern. This means that the self recognition of necessity is more effectively worked than the policy or regulations driven by government.

Success Factors of Game Products by Using a Diffusion Model and Cluster Analysis (확산모형과 군집분석을 이용한 게임제품의 흥행요소 분석)

  • Song, Sungmin;Cho, Nam-Wook;Kim, Taegu
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.222-230
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    • 2016
  • As the global game market has been more competitive, it has been important to analyze success factors of game products. In this paper, we applied a Bass Diffusion Model and Clustering Analysis to identify the success factors of games based on data from Steam, an international game platform. By using a diffusion model, we first categorize game products into two groups : successful and unsuccessful games. Then, each group has been analyzed by using clustering analysis based on product features such as genres, price, and minimum system requirements. As a result, success factors of a game have been identified. The result shows that customers in game industry appreciate sophisticated contents. Unlike many other industries, price is not considered as a key success factor in the game industry. Expecially, advanced independent video games (commonly referred to as indie games) with killer contents show competitiveness in the market.

The Effects of Influentials on Successful and Unsuccessful Diffusion in the Social Network (인터넷 정보확산의 성공과 실패에 미치는 사회적 네트워크 영향자의 영향)

  • Han, Sangman;Cha, Kyoung Cheon;Hong, Jae Weon
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.73-96
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, authors focused on the difference between successful and unsuccessful items in terms of the innovation and imitation parameters of Bass diffusion model. Each item was scraped by members directly from the minihompies they visit. Top 50 items in terms of total number of adoption are classified as successful items and the 50 items whose total number of adoption was just below the average are classified as unsuccessful items. In particular, authors are interested in investigating the role of influentials in the diffusion process. Influentials are defined as those people whose network centrality (Indegree, Outdegree, and Betweeness centrality) was larger than the mean centrality in their social network. Figure 1 shows the plots of number of scraping, cumulative scraping, indegree, outdegree and betweenness of the people who scraped the most popular item among 100 items.

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A Review on Marketing Models' Implications to Market Positioning: With a Focus on the Hauser and Shugan Model (마케팅 모형의 포지셔닝 관련 시사점에 대한 고찰: Hauser and Shugan 모형을 중심으로)

  • Won, Jee-Sung
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.14 no.11
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    • pp.61-73
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - Marketing scholars have developed various types of mathematical models for describing marketing phenomenon, because there is no single model comprehensive enough to incorporate all the relevant marketing phenomena. This study tries to summarize the behavioral foundations and the mathematical derivations of the most widely used marketing models and discusses their strategic implications. This study selected four representative marketing models: multinomial logit(MNL) model, elimination-by-aspects(EBA) model, Hauser and Shugan model and Bass diffusion model. Especially, this study focuses on Hauser and Shugan(1983)'s Defender model and discusses the model's behavioral foundation and its implications. Research design, data, and methodology - Of the four selected model, the multinomial logit model is selected as the basic normative model and the other three models are described as descriptive models in contrast. Starting the discussion from the multinomial logit model, this study explains what important strategic variables are incorporated in each of the four models. The IIA(independence of irrelevant alternatives) axiom and Luce choice model is also discussed in relation to the multinomial logit model. The concept of 'efficient frontier' is discussed in relation to Hauser and Shugan's model. Graphs and tables are used to represent the key implications. No empirical study is included. Results - The analyses of the mathematical marketing models are shown to be very useful in understanding the essence of positioning strategy. The multinomial logit model implies the importance of increasing utility or consumer preference level. The EBA model implies the importance of lowering the inter-brand similarity and dominating the competitors. Hauser and Shugan model implies the importance of considering customer heterogeneity distribution in selecting the target market. Conclusions - It is shown that the concepts of 'efficient frontier' is useful in understanding the effectiveness of positioning strategy. Market positioning can be understood as occupying some place on the efficient frontier. The important strategic implications can be summarized as follows: Always try to increase customer preference by providing what they value, and differentiate from competing alternatives as much as possible. The best positioning strategy is to dominate all the competitors and the worst is to be dominated by the competitors.

Effect of Price on the PCS Demand (서비스 가격지수를 이용한 PCS 시장규모 예측모형)

  • Chang, Suk-Gwon
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.44-51
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    • 1996
  • The purpose of this paper is to develop a modeling framework for analyzing the effect of price on the PCS (Personal Commununications Service) demand. To achieve this aim, a nonlinear regression model was derived to capture the income effect on the PCS demand and then was combined into an integrated Bass diffusion model. The model was then applied to the emerging PCS market in Korea and the market demands up to the year 2006 were estimated. The results were reviewed and evaluated in various aspects. Finally, the possibilities of model enhancement and model extensions were explored.

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A Study on Technology Forecasting based on Co-occurrence Network of Keyword in Multidisciplinary Journals (다학제 분야 학술지의 주제어 동시발생 네트워크를 활용한 기술예측 연구)

  • Kim, Hyunuk;Ahn, Sang-Jin;Jung, Woo-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.49-63
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    • 2015
  • Keyword indexed in multidisciplinary journals show trends about science and technology innovation. Nature and Science were selected as multidisciplinary journals for our analysis. In order to reduce the effect of plurality of keyword, stemming algorithm were implemented. After this process, we fitted growth curve of keyword (stem) following bass model, which is a well-known model in diffusion process. Bass model is useful for expressing growth pattern by assuming innovative and imitative activities in innovation spreading. In addition, we construct keyword co-occurrence network and calculate network measures such as centrality indices and local clustering coefficient. Based on network metrics and yearly frequency of keyword, time series analysis was conducted for obtaining statistical causality between these measures. For some cases, local clustering coefficient seems to Granger-cause yearly frequency of keyword. We expect that local clustering coefficient could be a supportive indicator of emerging science and technology.

A Study on the Business Model Design and Economic Evaluation of Open Source Software License Compliance Platform (오픈소스 SW 라이선스 컴플라이언스 플랫폼의 비즈니스 모델 설계 및 경제적 타당성 분석)

  • Chun, Seoyoung;Yoon, SungWook;Jeong, Sukjae
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2020
  • Companies that use open source SW must comply with the "Open Source SW License" in order to use it freely. However, despite the potential legal responsibilities and risks associated with compliance, they do not know or neglect the risks. For this reason, cases of disputes, including license violations, are soaring. Recently, Open source SW license compliance platform services have been developed and actively utilized to address these issues. This study designed a business model for open source SW license compliance platform and conducted an economic feasibility analysis. The focus of the study is the establishment of a business model and the estimation of potential customers and actual purchase rates. For this purpose, we designed seven business model scenarios for promotion and sales period, and performed an economic evaluation using an expanded model of the Bass model, the Kalish model and the customer's maximum willingness to pay.

Statistical Methods to Evaluate the Occurrence Probability of Exotic Fish in Japan (일본 서식 외래 담수어종의 서식확률 평가를 위한 통계기법 연구)

  • Han, Mi-Deok;Chung, Wook-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.195-202
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    • 2011
  • This study analyzed and modeled the relationships between the probabilities of two exotic species occurrence (i.e. largemouth bass and blue gill) and environmental factors such as climatic and geographical variables using Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Generalized Liner Models and Classification Tree Analysis (CTA). The most moderate occurrence probability of largemouth bass was predicted using GAM with an area under the curve (ADC) of 0.88 and Kappa of 0.42, while those of blue gill was suggested by using CTA with an AUC of 0.92 and Kappa of 0.44. The most significant environmental variable in terms of changes in deviance for both species was the annual air temperature for the occurrence probability. Dams had stronger effect on the occurrence of largemouth bass than blue gill. Model development and prediction for the occurrence probability of fish species and richness are necessary to prevent further spread of exotic fishes such as largemouth bass and blue gill because they can threaten habitats of native river ecosystem through various mechanisms.

A Demand forecasting for Electric vehicles using Choice Based Multigeneration Diffusion Model (선택기반 다세대 확산모형을 이용한 전기자동차 수요예측 방법론 개발)

  • Chae, Ah-Rom;Kim, Won-Kyu;Kim, Sung-Hyun;Kim, Byung-Jong
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.113-123
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    • 2011
  • Recently, the global warming problem has arised around world, many nations has set up a various regulations for decreasing $CO_2$. In particular, $CO_2$ emissions reduction effect is very powerful in transport part, so there is a rising interest about development of green car, or electric vehicle in auto industry. For this reason, it is important to make a strategy for charging infra and forcast electric power demand, but it hasn't introduced about demand forecasting electric vehicle. Thus, this paper presents a demand forecasting for electric vehicles using choice based multigeneration diffusion model. In this paper, it estimates innovation coefficient, immitation coefficient in Bass model by using hybrid car market data and forecast electric vehicle market by year using potential demand market through SP(Stated Preference) experiment. Also, It facilitates more accurate demand forecasting electric vehicle market refelcting multigeneration diffusion model in accordance with attribute progress in development of electric vehicle. Through demand forecasting methodology in this paper, it can be utilized power supply and building a charging infra in the future.

A Reproduction Study on Finishing Layer of Double Bass, Maggini Giovanni Paolo (마찌니 조반니 파올로 더블베이스의 마감층 재현연구)

  • Lee, Chaehoon;Yoo, Seunghwan;Chung, Yongjae
    • Conservation Science in Museum
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    • v.20
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    • pp.93-106
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    • 2018
  • The musical instruments displayed in Korean Museums consist of various materials such as wood, stone, metal, leather, and soil. As for instruments manufactured of organic materials, as time passed, they became damaged due to physical, chemical and biological effects. In order to restore these instruments, studies on the materials as well as the manufacturing techniques should be simultaneously conducted because of the characteristics of sound making instruments. In this study, 17th century Double bass were chosen as the model for the restoration study. The type of wood was identified and the finishing layer was analyzed. To investigate the finishing layer, the surface observation was conducted and the component analysis was also conducted by using both FT-IR and SEM-EDS. As a result, the species of wood were identified as the maple trees. In case of the finishing layer of it, the diluted Goma Lacca, a type of resin, with alcohol as the main solvent was covered for varnishing layer. These results were combined to determine the restoration of Double bass Maggini Giovanni Paolo varnishing layer and by this Violin was made.