• Korean Management Science Review
• /
• v.32 no.3
• /
• pp.29-36
• /
• 2015

In this research, we analyze the sensitivity of the network density to the estimates for the Bass model parameters with both theoretical model and a simulation. Bass model describes the process that the non-adopters in the market potential adopt a new product or an innovation by the innovation effect and imitation effect. The imitation effect shows the word of mouth effect from the previous adopters to non-adopters. But it does not divide the underlying network structure from the strength of the influence over the network. With a network based Bass model, we found that the estimate for the imitation coefficient is highly sensitive to the network density and it is decreasing while the network density is decreasing. This finding implies that the interpersonal influence can be under-looked when the network density is low. It also implies that both of the network density and the interpersonal influence are important to facilitate the diffusion of an innovation.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
• /
• v.26 no.1
• /
• pp.51-58
• /
• 1998

The opening of an event in a given geographical area may be defined as an innovation. Visitors to the event adopt the innovation; therefore, their visitation patterns since the opening can be regarded as a diffusion process. Bass' model of diffusion process was applied to analyzing weekly visitation of Kwang-ju Viennale. Parameters of the Bass' model were estimated by regression analysis, and then reviewed in terms of applicability. Actual estimation of event visitation was implemented by calculation of the three parameters of the model based on the actual data. After comparing estimated value with actual value, it was concluded that Bass' model is applicable to estimating event visitation as far as it is the only prediction method available at this point.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
• /
• v.37 no.1
• /
• pp.74-82
• /
• 2011

The Bass model is a cornerstone in diffusion theory which is used for forecasting demand of durables or new services. Three well-known estimation methods for parameters of the Bass model are Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE), Nonlinear Least Square (NLS). In this paper, a hybrid method incorporating OLS and NLS is presented and it's performance is analyzed and compared with OLS and NLS by using simulation data and empirical data. The results show that NLS has the best performance in terms of accuracy and our hybrid method has the best performance in terms of stability. Specifically, hybrid method has better performance with less data. This result means much in practical aspect because the avaliable data is little when a diffusion model is used for forecasting demand of a new product.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
• /
• v.25 no.3
• /
• pp.16-26
• /
• 2021

The global warming problem has arose, the supply eco-friendly vehicles such as HFCEVs is increasing around world and Korea is fully supporting subsidies, tax cut to form an initial market for HFCEVs. The key to the safety of HFCEVs is pressure vessels stored hydrogen, and although these pressure vessels must be inspection regularly, the existing inspection stations are insufficient to meet the demand for inspection. Therefore, it is important to establishment of pressure vessels inspection station for safety management of HFCEVs. In this study, it estimates innovation coefficient, imitation coefficient in Bass model by using electric vehicle sales data, and foretasted the supply of HFCEVs by region & the demand for inspection by region using the Bass diffusion model. As a result, the inspection demand for pressure vessels in HFCEVs in 2040 was 690,759 units, and it was confirmed 191 new inspection stations and 1,124 inspectors were needed to prepare for this.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
• /
• v.6 no.2
• /
• pp.55-64
• /
• 2008

The Internet possesses not only features of mass media but also features of word of mouth communication. Communication channel is considered as one of most important variables in diffusion process. In this paper, we examined functionality of technology diffusion on the Internet through the use of meta tags. We have measured the coefficients of the Bass diffusion model which has been well-established in new product diffusion. This research shows that the Bass model is appropriate for describing technology diffusion on the Internet. The external influence as represented by the coefficient of innovation was found to be much smaller while the internal influence dominates in all meta tag diffusion. In meta tag diffusion, the internal influence as represented by the coefficient of imitation was increased at least twice bigger than that of consumer durables and information technology. Collecting necessary data in social sciences research can be a burden. This research shows that it can be alleviated through the use of software agents over the Internet. The research made use of software agents for collecting longitudinal data from publicly accessible archive such as Archive.org.

• IE interfaces
• /
• v.23 no.4
• /
• pp.337-348
• /
• 2010

The Bass model is the most widely used model in research of new product diffusion because it presents a nice explanation on the diffusion process of new products. However, it has a limitation that its performance of fitness is lower as the available data become less and also, the diffusion curve is bell-shape and so, it can not represent the various diffusion patterns. Recently, a two-pieces Bass model is developed and applied to analyze diffusion of 10 products. The results are encouraging in terms of fitness. However, diffusion pattern is not dealt with in the paper. In this paper, analysis of diffusion pattern is in depth addressed in two-pieces Bass model. It is shown that the diffusion curves are divided into 3 types with respect to the peak adoption rate and each type is divided into 2 types further. Takeoff time of a diffusion process is analyzed by using the inflection point and regime-change time where it represents the point that imitation and innovation parameters change. Empirical studies for 68 products(28 domestic products and 40 USA products) are performed to analyze the diffusion pattern. Findings are that diffusion patterns of all products except 1 USA product show type I and regime-change time becomes shorter as the introduction time of the product is later in domestic products and regime-change time can be regarded as a takeoff time in 47% of total 68 products.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
• /
• v.57 no.11
• /
• pp.1938-1945
• /
• 2008

Due to rapid economic growth, the usage of residential cooling electrical appliances such as air conditioners and refrigerators has increased dramatically for the last decades. In other to reduce its energy consumption, the authorities have applied energy efficiency standards for principal appliances, including refrigerator. This paper estimates the distribution of refrigerators using the Bass Diffusion Model and then performs economic analysis corresponding to enhancement of energy efficiency more correctly than existing methods.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
• /
• 2006.11a
• /
• pp.413-416
• /
• 2006

신제품이나 서비스의 수요 예측을 Bass 확산 모형을 토대로 수행할 때의 가장 큰 문제점은모형의 파라미터 추정에 필요한 데이터가 충분치 않다는 것이다. 따라서 Bass 확산 모형의 핵심적인 두 파라미터인 혁신 계수(p)와 모방 계수(q)의 추정을 시도할 때, 어느 정도의 데이터 개수가 요구되는 지를 파악하는 것은 매우 현실적인 중요성을 갖는 문제이다. 이제까지의 연구는 주로 기존의 판매 데이터를 토대로 Bass 모형의 파라미터를 추정할 때, 생기는 다양한 문제점 파악에 집중되었다. 시뮬레이션의 경우는 Bass 모형에 랜덤 오차를 추가하여 실시하였다. 이 경우 데이터 개수가 계수추정에 미치는 영향은 도출되나 각 계수별 민감도 분석이 제대로 이루어지지 못하는 한계를 가지고 있다, 따라서 본 논문에서는 시뮬레이션에서 예측치를 발생시킬 때 랜덤 오차 대신, 혁신 계수와 확산 계수의 변동을 주는 방법을 도입한다. 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, p 변동보다는 q 변동이 예측치의 오차에 대해 보다 중요하다. 둘째, 오차가 잠재수요의 30%이하로 떨어지기 위해서는 수요가 최대로 도달하는 시점이 $t^*$ 일 경우, $t^*\;+1$까지 데이터가 요구된다.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
• /
• v.12 no.3
• /
• pp.141-147
• /
• 2014

Diffusion model is popular research topic in marketing and economy particularly for the areas of model specification and market size forecasting. In particular, Bass model can explain Roger's innovation diffusion and product life cycle through easy mathematical representation and hence the model has been widely used for the explanation of adopting innovative new products and technologies. Nonetheless, there're only a couple of pioneering researches about semiconductor market, using diffusion models. Consequently, we'd utilise NLS approach diffusion model to estimate the market potential of MOSFET, major switching device for power management of system, and explain the process to industry stakeholders and policy makers for delivery of managerial implication with pragmatic purpose.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
• /
• v.40 no.2
• /
• pp.125-135
• /
• 2016

Background: The objectives of this study were to establish a swimming capability model for largemouth bass using the FishXing (version 3) program, and to determine the swimming speed and feasibility of fish passage through a waterway tunnel. This modeling aimed to replicate the waterway tunnel connecting the Andong and Imha Reservoirs in South Korea, where there is a concern that largemouth bass may be able to pass through this structure. As largemouth bass are considered an invasive species, this spread could have repercussions for the local environment. Results: Flow regime of water through the waterway tunnel was calculated via the simulation of waterway tunnel operation, and the capability of largemouth bass to pass through the waterway tunnel was then estimated. The swimming speed and distance of the largemouth bass had a positive linear function with total length and negative linear function with the flow rate of the waterway tunnel. The passing rate of small-size largemouth bass (10-30 cm) was 0%at a flow of $10m^3/s$ due to rapid exhaustion from prolonged upstream swimming through the long (1.952 km) waterway tunnel. Conclusions: The results of FishXing showed that the potential passing rate of large size largemouth bass (>40 cm) through the waterway tunnel was greater than 10%; however, the passage of largemouth bass was not possible because of the mesh size ($3.4{\times}6.0cm$) of the pre-screening structures at the entrance of the waterway tunnel. Overall, this study suggests that the spread of largemouth bass population in the Imha Reservoir through the waterway tunnel is most likely impossible.