• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.48 no.10
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• pp.1183-1189
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• 1999

This paper presents the method of parameter estimation of diffusion model for monitoring Demand-Side Management program. Bass diffusion model was applied in this paper, which has different values according to the following parameters; coefficients of innovation, imitation and potential adopters. Though it is very important to estimate three parameters precisely, there has been no empirical way in practice. Thus, this paper presents the method of parameter estimation in case of few data with constraints to reduce the possibility of bad estimation. The constraints can be empirical results or expert's decision. Case studies show the diffusion curves and forecasted values of the peak for the high-efficient lighting. The feedback and nonlinear least-square parameter estimation methods used in this paper enable us to evaluate the status and to predict the effect of DSM program.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.48 no.4
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• pp.987-1001
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• 2021

One of the most critical issues in the dairy industry, alongside the low birth rate and the aging population, is the decrease in demand for milk. In this study, the consumption trends of 12 major dairy products distributed in Korea were predicted using a logistic model, the Gompertz model, and the Bass diffusion model, which are representative S-shaped growth models. The 12 dairy products are fermented milk (liquid type, cream type), butter, milk powder (modified, whole, skim), liquid milk (market, flavored), condensed milk, cheese (natural, processed), and cream. As a result of the analysis, the growth potential of butter, condensed milk, natural cheese, processed cheese, and cream consumption among the 12 dairy products is relatively high, whereas the growth of the remaining dairy product consumption is expected to stagnate or decrease. However, butter and cream are by-products of the skim milk powder manufacturing process. Therefore, even if the consumption of butter and cream grows, it is difficult to increase the demand of domestic milk unless the production of skim milk powder produced from domestic milk is also increased. Therefore, in order to support the domestic dairy industry, policy support should be focused on increasing domestic milk usage for the production of condensed milk, natural cheese, and processed cheese.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.73-96
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• 2009

In this paper, authors focused on the difference between successful and unsuccessful items in terms of the innovation and imitation parameters of Bass diffusion model. Each item was scraped by members directly from the minihompies they visit. Top 50 items in terms of total number of adoption are classified as successful items and the 50 items whose total number of adoption was just below the average are classified as unsuccessful items. In particular, authors are interested in investigating the role of influentials in the diffusion process. Influentials are defined as those people whose network centrality (Indegree, Outdegree, and Betweeness centrality) was larger than the mean centrality in their social network. Figure 1 shows the plots of number of scraping, cumulative scraping, indegree, outdegree and betweenness of the people who scraped the most popular item among 100 items.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.161-164
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• 2006

The sales of consumer durables are composed of first time purchases and replacement purchases. Since the sales for most mature durable products are dominated by replacement sales, it is necessary to develop a model incorporating replacement component of sales in order to forecast total sales accurately. Several single product diffusion models incorporating replacement demand have been developed, but research addressing the multi-product diffusion models has not considered replacement sales. In this paper, we propose a model based on consumer choice behavior that simultaneously captures the diffusion and the replacement process for multi-product relationships. The proposed model enables the division of replacement sales into repurchase by previous users and transition purchase by users of different products. As a result, the model allows the partitioning of the total sales according to the customer groups (first-time buyers, repurchase buyers, and transition buyers), which allows companies to develop their production and marketing plans based on their customer mix. We apply the proposed model to the Korean automobile market, and compare the fitting and forecasting performance with other Bass-type multi-product models.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.133-145
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• 2015

Motion picture industry in Korea has been growing constantly and aroused various kinds of research attention. Particularly, the introduction of official box-office database service brought quantitative studies. However, approaches based on diffusion models have been rarely found with domestic film markets. In addition to the fundamental statistical review on Korea and US film markets, we applied a diffusion model to daily box-office revenue. Unlike conventional preference of Gamma distribution on the film markets, estimation results proved that BMIC can also explain the trend of daily revenue successfully. The comparison with BMIC showed that there is a distinctive difference in diffusion patterns of Korea and US film markets. Generally, word-of-mouth effect appeared more significant in Korea.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 1998.07c
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• pp.1073-1075
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• 1998

This paper presents the method of parameter estimation of diffusion model for monitoring Demand-Side Management Program. Bass diffusion model was applied in this paper, which has different values according to parameters ; coefficients of innovation, imitation and potential adopters. Though it is very important to estimate three parameter, there are no empirical results in practice. Thus, this paper presents the method of parameter estimation in case of few data with constraints to reduce the possibility of bad estimation. The constraints are empirical results or expert's decision. Case studies show the diffusion curves of high-efficient lighting and also forecasting of the peak value for power demand considering diffusion of high-efficient lighting, the feedback and least-square parameter estimation method used in this paper enable us to evaluate the status and forecasting of the effect of DSM program.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.415-423
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• 2014

In recent decades, RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification) technology has been recognized as one of the most core competencies in implementing ubiquitous society. However, Korea has not seen good success in diffusion of RFID even though Korean government continues funding many projects to diffuse the technology in industries. Most previous researches overestimate the growth of Korean RFID market in contrary to real market situation. This study aims to analyze the Korean RFID market and find a reasonable forecasting model for it. Our experimental results show that Bass forecasting model provides the more realistic estimates than any other models and the analyses of forecasting error provide useful information for the better forecasting. We also observed that government policy plays a crucial role in the diffusion of RFID technology in Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.539-546
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• 2016

It is over 12 years since the launch of Korea Train eXpress (KTX) services. Demand for the KTX has been on the increase continuously but few studies have been produced related to this phenomenon. KTX passenger demand has been constantly increasing due to influencing factors such as the expansion of network, rise of oil prices, etc. In this study, our main focus is to verify that there are other types of elements that are causing an increase in KTX demand; our approach looks at changes in social and psychological aspect that have occurred due to the reduction of travel time and cost, as well as the imposition of a five-day workweek. In other words, we considered diffusion theory in the marketing area, which affects product selection and purchasing attitudes, as a key factor that is causing passenger demand to increase. That is to say that it is hypothesized that the demand for travel on the KTX has increased due to the train's utility, which is spread by the diffusion effect Therefore, the Bass diffusion model was applied to explain the dramatic increase in KTX passenger demand. Based on this foundation, it was also discussed how certain marketing strategies that incorporate the diffusion effect should be considered variously for sustainable management of rail transportation, while considering a steady passenger demand.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.133-146
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• 2013

While the use of internet is routine nowadays, users receive and share information through a variety of media. Through the use of internet, information delivery media is diversifying from traditional media of one-way communication, such as newspaper, TV, and radio, into media of two-way communication. In contrast of traditional media, blogs enable individuals to directly upload and share news, which can be considered to have a differential speed of information diffusion than news media that convey information unilaterally. Therefore this Study focused on the difference between online news and social media blogs. Moreover, there are variations in the speed of information diffusion because that information closely related to one person boosts communications between individuals. We believe that users' standard of evaluation would change based on the types of information. As well, the speed of information diffusion would change based on the level of proximity. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the differences in information diffusion based on the types of media. And then information is segmentalized and an examination is done to see how information diffusion differentiates based on the types of information. This study used the Bass diffusion model, which has been frequently used because this model has higher explanatory power than other models by explaining diffusion of market through innovation effect and imitation effect. Also this model has been applied a lot in other information diffusion related studies. The Bass diffusion model includes an innovation effect and an imitation effect. Innovation effect measures the early-stage impact, while the imitation effect measures the impact of word of mouth at the later stage. According to Mahajan et al. (2000), Innovation effect is emphasized by usefulness and ease-of-use, as well Imitation effect is emphasized by subjective norm and word-of-mouth. Also, according to Lee et al. (2011), Innovation effect is emphasized by mass communication. According to Moore and Benbasat (1996), Innovation effect is emphasized by relative advantage. Because Imitation effect is adopted by within-group influences and Innovation effects is adopted by product's or service's innovation. Therefore, ours study compared online news and social media blogs to examine the differences between media. We also choose different types of information including entertainment related information "Psy Gentelman", Current affair news "Earthquake in Sichuan, China", and product related information "Galaxy S4" in order to examine the variations on information diffusion. We considered that users' information proximity alters based on the types of information. Hence, we chose the three types of information mentioned above, which have different level of proximity from users' standpoint, in order to examine the flow of information diffusion. The first conclusion of this study is that different media has similar effect on information diffusion, even the types of media of information provider are different. Information diffusion has only been distinguished by a disparity between proximity of information. Second, information diffusions differ based on types of information. From the standpoint of users, product and entertainment related information has high imitation effect because of word of mouth. On the other hand, imitation effect dominates innovation effect on Current affair news. From the results of this study, the flow changes of information diffusion is examined and be applied to practical use. This study has some limitations, and those limitations would be able to provide opportunities and suggestions for future research. Presenting the difference of Information diffusion according to media and proximity has difficulties for generalization of theory due to small sample size. Therefore, if further studies adopt to a request for an increase of sample size and media diversity, difference of the information diffusion according to media type and information proximity could be understood more detailed.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2005.05a
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• pp.1089-1094
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• 2005

Peterson and Mahajan(1978)은 Bass모형을 확장한 종속적 신상품 수요확산모형(contingent diffusion model)을 처음으로 제안하였다. Peterson and Mahajan(1978)이 명명한 상품간의 종속적(contingent) 관계란, 주 상품의 경우는 다른 상품에 독립적이지만 종속적 상품(contingent product)의 경우는 잠재시장이 주 상품의 누적 구매자 수에 의존하는 경우를 말한다. 그런데 Peterson and Mahajan이 제안한 기존 모형은 실질적 활용에 있어서 모형 추정이 불가능하다는 단점을 지니고 있을 뿐만 아니라, Bass(1969) 모형처럼 엄밀한 확률이론에 근간을 둔 모형이라기보다는 직관과 통찰력에 근간을 둔 Bass모형의 단순한 확장 모형이라는 한계를 지니고 있다. 본 연구는 이러한 한계를 극복하고 확률이론을 바탕으로 종속적 관계를 가지는 상품들에 대한 수요 확산모형을 개발하는데 목적이 있다. Bass의 신상품확산모형은 hazard 함수 모형의 일종으로 신상품의 확산을 혁신과 구전효과로 설명한 과학적 모형이다. 본 연구에서는 확률이론을 활용함으로써 이러한 Bass의 hazard 함수 모형의 확장이 가능함을 보이고, 이를 토대로 종속적 관계에 있는 신상품들에 대한 수요 확산모형을 개발하였다. 또한 개발된 모형을 한국의 이동전화와 무선인터넷 사례에 적용하여 실증 분석을 수행하였다.